Videos

Interviews

 
Video: The Quirinale Question

Video: The Quirinale Question

14 Jan 2022
The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.
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Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

7 Jan 2022
As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.
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Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

17 Dec 2021
US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.
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Video: Pricing French Political Risk

Video: Pricing French Political Risk

10 Dec 2021
With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.
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Video: The State Of The US Economy

Video: The State Of The US Economy

1 Dec 2021
With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.
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Video: Russia And The European Energy Equation

Video: Russia And The European Energy Equation

24 Nov 2021
The sharp rise this year in European energy prices has been widely attributed to Russia, which has declined to increase near-term supplies of natural gas to Europe in line with the region’s demand growth. Nick examines the incentives guiding Moscow’s decisions and explores the potential impact of Russia’s choices on Western Europe’s inflation and growth outlook.
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Video: The Conflicting Signals In US Consumption

Video: The Conflicting Signals In US Consumption

17 Nov 2021
The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.
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Video: A Looser Labor Market

Video: A Looser Labor Market

8 Nov 2021
In the US expectations are growing that labor shortages will drive accelerating pay rises, exacerbating inflationary pressures. In the eurozone, as Nick explains, the situation is different. Although anecdotes abound about employers struggling to staff up, these are a temporary wrinkle caused by rapid reopening in narrow sectors.
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Video: India's Comeback

Video: India's Comeback

28 Oct 2021
India posted a blazing 20% year-on-year growth figure in the calendar year’s second quarter. The country seems to have ducked a third Covid wave and equity investors remain ebullient. In this video interview, Udith explores a number of gathering problems for the Indian economy but concedes that the good times could easily keep on rolling.
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Video: Typhoon Season For Hong Kong

Video: Typhoon Season For Hong Kong

21 Oct 2021
Hong Kong is sticking to its zero-Covid policies, complete with a travel ban on outsiders and Draconian quarantine rules for returning residents, even as Singapore tentatively reopens to international arrivals. In this video interview, Vincent explains what is driving Hong Kong’s uncompromising stance on Covid. He assesses whether it will damage the city’s standing as a regional financial center, and whether doubts over the status of China Evergrande’s offshore bonds will undermine the credibility of Hong Kong’s markets.
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Events

 
London Seminar — September 2021

London Seminar — September 2021

8 Oct 2021
In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

8 Oct 2021
In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.
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Webinar: Having It Both Ways In Emerging Markets

Webinar: Having It Both Ways In Emerging Markets

1 Oct 2021
The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?
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Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?

Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?

24 Sep 2021
Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.
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Webinar: The Evergrande Crisis

Webinar: The Evergrande Crisis

23 Sep 2021
Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.
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Webinar: Questions Arise As US Growth Slows

Webinar: Questions Arise As US Growth Slows

17 Sep 2021
As renewed Covid outbreaks curtail activity and the labor market starts to normalize, the US economy is no longer generating big upside growth surprises. Will the Federal Reserve defer its retreat from super-easy monetary policy, and what will come of the Biden administration's fiscal strategy?
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Webinar: Understanding China's Regulatory Crackdown

Webinar: Understanding China's Regulatory Crackdown

10 Sep 2021
Even by China’s high standards, 2021 has seen an extraordinary amount of government intervention in the economy, as top leader Xi Jinping moves aggressively to implement his vision of national greatness. In this webinar our China team assess the impact on the economy and markets, and discuss what could cause this crackdown to pause or reverse.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, August 2021

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, August 2021

6 Aug 2021
The US growth outlook may be softening as the reopening boom weakens but equity markets seem relaxed as this outcome could delay the day when monetary stimulus is withdrawn. In our sign-off webinar for August, Gavekal partners asked if markets are right in their benign assessment, or whether a nasty surprise could emerge over the usually quiet summer months.
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Webinar: Europe Caught Between Stools

Webinar: Europe Caught Between Stools

30 Jul 2021
The US has taken an approach to the pandemic that involves reopening and “living with Covid”, whereas most East Asian economies are heading down the "zero-Covid" path. Europe seems to be caught between these two stools. Which way Europe turns could have a big impact on global growth, the value of the euro and key asset values.
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Webinar: The State Of Global Growth

Webinar: The State Of Global Growth

23 Jul 2021
The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector. Our team assessed the market implications of these trends.
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