Videos

Interviews

Video: Shifting Global Fund Flows

Video: Shifting Global Fund Flows

15 Feb 2023
Louis-Vincent Gave
After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.
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Video: Indignation Up The Indus

Video: Indignation Up The Indus

9 Feb 2023
Udith Sikand
India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.
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Video: The Asian Trade Cycle Lives

Video: The Asian Trade Cycle Lives

1 Feb 2023
Vincent Tsui
Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.
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Video: Towards A South American Common Currency

Video: Towards A South American Common Currency

27 Jan 2023
Udith Sikand
With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.
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Video: Japan's Balancing Act

Video: Japan's Balancing Act

19 Jan 2023
Yanmei Xie
Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.
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Video: Heading For A Disinflationary Bust?

Video: Heading For A Disinflationary Bust?

13 Jan 2023
Will Denyer
December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.
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Video: Europe's Green Borders

Video: Europe's Green Borders

6 Jan 2023
Nick Andrews
In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.
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Video: Another Congress, Another Debt Ceiling Showdown

Video: Another Congress, Another Debt Ceiling Showdown

15 Dec 2022
Will Denyer
Another fight over the American debt ceiling is brewing in Washington, D.C. It is hard to think that the US government debt-ceiling standoff will not be settled but in the meantime, this could materially impact US liquidity conditions over the coming six months.
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Video: The US-EU Disunited Front

Video: The US-EU Disunited Front

9 Dec 2022
Yanmei Xie
Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised hackles in the European Union, where politicians complain that US green subsidies unfairly tilt the playing field to the disadvantage of European companies. The dispute threatens to jeopardize US efforts to enlist European support for Washington’s economic confrontation with China.
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Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

2 Dec 2022
Christopher Beddor
China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.
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Events

 
Webinar: Europe's Winter Troubles

Webinar: Europe's Winter Troubles

3 Dec 2021
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.
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Shanghai Seminar — November 2021

Shanghai Seminar — November 2021

19 Nov 2021
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Louis-Vincent Gave
In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.
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Webinar: Contrarian Takes On Two Emerging Markets

Webinar: Contrarian Takes On Two Emerging Markets

19 Nov 2021
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui
The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.
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Webinar: A Climate Of Change

Webinar: A Climate Of Change

12 Nov 2021
Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl, Rosealea Yao
As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, November 2021

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, November 2021

5 Nov 2021
Will Denyer, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
At November's Global Investment Roundtable, Gavekal’s senior team convened to discuss the global macro environment as energy prices continue to rise and the US Federal Reserve gets closer to winding down its monetary accommodation.
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Webinar: Europe's Dislocated Recovery

Webinar: Europe's Dislocated Recovery

29 Oct 2021
Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky
Europe is in the grips of an energy crisis that is disrupting multiple industries and acting as an effective tax on consumption. In addition to broader supply chain bottlenecks, the worry is that these factors choke off Europe's nascent economic recovery. In this webinar our team of analysts assess these dynamics.
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Webinar: What To Expect As The Fed Tapers

Webinar: What To Expect As The Fed Tapers

22 Oct 2021
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances. Will and KX set out what these all these shifts—as well as rising inflation, tightening labor markets and deteriorating housing affordability—mean for US stock and bond markets.
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Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

15 Oct 2021
Andrew Batson
China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. These have resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. In this webinar, Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely.
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London Seminar — September 2021

London Seminar — September 2021

8 Oct 2021
Thomas Gatley, Tom Miller, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

8 Oct 2021
Arthur Kroeber, Anatole Kaletsky, Louis-Vincent Gave
In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.
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