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Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
China’s Export-Control Calculus
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja
1 Jun 2026
As Washington discovered with semiconductors, export controls that aim to maintain a technological lead are double-edged. They may slow a rival’s catch-up, but they also incentivize the rival’s innovation and harm domestic interests. And they are hard to enforce. China is rapidly expanding its export controls to include not just rare earths but many other technologies where it has a lead. But the more controls it imposes, the more it risks choking off revenues and paths to innovation for its leading tech companies.
Gavekal Technologies: Chips
Introducing Huawei’s ‘Tau (τ) Scaling Law’
Laila Khawaja
28 May 2026
Huawei's “Tau (τ) Scaling Law” signals China’s ambition to redefine semiconductor progress and claim a leadership role in global technology competition. The proposal is more a Huawei-branded framework that systemizes existing post-Moore ideas than a reflection of groundbreaking innovations.
More research
The Battery Design Battle
Battery makers are working hard to escape commodity hell by designing cells that integrate directly into electric cars’ bodies, boosting performance while making it harder for EV makers to switch battery suppliers. EV manufacturing is becoming a tug-of-war between battery makers, which like the pricing power that integrated design gives them, and carmakers, who need to decide how much flexibility they will sacrifice for better efficiency.
The AI Boom’s Critical Minerals Problems
The AI boom’s critical minerals problems; China gives warm welcome to AMD.
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
Constructive Stability, Or Uneasy Stalemate?
The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced few specifics but did confirm that both leaders want to keep the relationship stable for the next few years. Whether this new equilibrium can last depends a lot on whether Trump can tame the hawkish sentiment on China that continues to percolate in Washington
Corporate America’s Beijing Shopping List
Seventeen CEOs are in Donald Trump’s entourage for his summit meeting in Beijing this week. The heavyweight corporate presence—which includes Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Larry Fink and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg—underscores that the White House hopes to score high-profile commercial commitments that Trump can position as wins for US business. The CEOs arrive with a long list of asks, from greater market access, business licenses in restricted areas, more certainty on supplies of key inputs like rare earths and magnets, and removal or reduction of regulatory penalties. Huang’s last-minute addition to the trip indicates that export controls are not part of Washington’s agenda. If the talks go well, one likely outcome is China would allow limited imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips to show its attitude of market openness while meeting the country’s surging demand for AI compute.
Triumphant Technology, Murderous Market
Beijing hosted the world’s biggest-ever auto show in late April. The expo confirmed that Chinese electric-vehicle makers are cementing their grip on the EV technology stack, from batteries to automated driving systems to manufacturing processes. As a result, foreign brands are shifting to all-Chinese component systems to stay competitive. The top Chinese brands are also leading a slow rationalization of the domestic market. But consolidation will be an agonizing process: several years of cutthroat competition and elusive profits lie ahead.