Gavekal-IS

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Golden Time

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Golden Time

Didier Darcet
11 Apr 2024
Gavekal-IS’s asset allocation method is based on two pillars. The first one rests on macroeconomic theories, while the second one imitates the approach of physicists when trying to describe an evolving system. In today’s report, Didier explains why this style of investing is still advising a maximum allocation to gold.
Laws In Finance

Gavekal-IS

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Laws In Finance

Didier Darcet
4 Apr 2024
Didier is fascinated by the nascent discipline of econophysics. In this report, he looks at the study of physics over the last four centuries and the application of key concepts into finance theory that influences the way that money is managed.

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Mimetic Violence
We live in times of resurgent global rivalry, whose logic inevitably leads towards violence. In this piece Didier seeks to better understand the philosophical underpinnings of this human dynamic, since it plays into the question of whether economic development can proceed or gets disrupted. He then offers insights about the way that investors should play a disrupted world economy.
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What’s New With The Level 2.0 Portfolio?
Didier checks in with both the economic four quadrants and the monetary four quadrants and updates readers on the resulting allocation changes in the Level 2.0 Portfolio.
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Gold Versus Bitcoin
Gold and bitcoin are two alternatives to fiat currencies that are both flirting with all-time highs. Since bitcoin has been dubbed “digital gold”, can it be considered gold’s younger sibling? Also, why are they both surging in price? Didier seeks to answer these questions by looking back at different forms of currency in economic history, while embracing the new language of the crypto world.
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Keeping A Close Eye On Oil
Didier recently read a well researched 70-page report on the oil market but at the end the author reached no firm conclusion about the trajectory of the crude price. Such a lack of clarity is a problem for portfolio managers as the price of primary energy is perhaps the most important economic variable when valuing financial assets. In response, Didier proposes a simple approach to assessing oil prices based solely on behavioral finance.
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India Takes The Lead
The last two reports published by Didier addressed recent changes that have impacted long asset price cycles. These reports showed that a 50/50 allocation between equities and long bonds no longer works, and that gold has become the antifragile asset of choice in a balanced portfolio. But does this change in portfolio construction apply worldwide? Didier surveys global markets and notices an outlier in the relative performance of Indian equities.
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Two Centuries Of Investing In The Level 2.0 Portfolio
Last week, Didier reviewed the performance of French equities, both short and long-dated bonds, real estate and gold dating back to 1840. In this report, he seeks to backtest the Gavekal-IS Level 2.0 Portfolio over the period to see what conclusions can be reached.
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