Most recent
Gavekal Research
Takaichi, China And The Yen
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
19 Nov 2025
The yen slipped to its weakest since the beginning of February early Wednesday in Asia as the market delivered its verdict on the uncompromising policies of Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Now, with the prospect that a protracted dispute with China could have a material negative effect on Japan’s economic performance, there is a risk the already deeply undervalued yen could weaken further towards its post-1990 low of ¥160.
Gavekal Dragonomics
What’s New In The Plan For Tech
Tilly Zhang
19 Nov 2025
Top leader Xi Jinping has decided that promoting technology and modernizing industry will continue to be the top priorities in China’s next five-year plan, as they are in the current plan. But as Tilly explains in this piece, that doesn’t mean China is simply doubling down on its existing industrial policy. There are important changes in priorities and strategies: a greater focus on commercializing products to drive growth, and a stronger role for central government coordination.
Gavekal Research
The Tide Ebbs For Private Credit
Tan Kai Xian
18 Nov 2025
The cockroaches continue to scurry out of the skirting. On Monday, it emerged that the FBI is investigating a clutch of private credit borrowers. However, the focus on fraudulent borrowing and denials that these problems are endemic in private credit masks a deeper truth: high water has passed for the business, and the tide for private credit is now receding. The forces driving this ebb tide are positive for large US banks.
Gavekal Research
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Arthur Kroeber, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
17 Nov 2025
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Costs Of The Property-Policy Misfire
Xiaoxi Zhang
Policy Risk Rises
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
The Message From More Growth Targets
Andrew Batson
The Problem With Consumer Subsidies
Ernan Cui
Macro Update: Confidence Without Stimulus
Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
Gavekal Research
Inching Towards Capital Market Union
Cedric Gemehl
The Market’s Risk-Off Mood
Louis-Vincent Gave
Navigating The AI Bubble: Buy Chinese Tech And US Power
Will Denyer
Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
The Worrying Return Of Suhartoism
Tom Miller
Gavekal Technologies
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Arthur Kroeber, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
Understanding Export Controls And Loopholes
Laila Khawaja
Reading The US-China Trade Truce
Laila Khawaja
The Struggle For Technology Sovereignty
Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
Gavekal-IS
Gold Miners
Didier Darcet
Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Didier Darcet
The S&P 500 Gini Index
Didier Darcet
The Currencies Of Bridge-Builders
Didier Darcet
Is The Gold Rally Normal?
Didier Darcet, Michael du Jeu
Gavekal Research
What Next For US-China Relations?
Louis-Vincent Gave
21 Oct 2025
The US-China trade war has flared up again since the end of September. This resumption
of hostilities has clearly weighed on markets over the last couple of weeks. Louis lays out the scenarios for US-China relations, and argues that a truce is the most likely outcome, but which will still leave major questions unanswered.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US NAHB housing market index rose to 38 in Nov, from 37 in Oct
Above expected 37
Housing outlook remains subdued by elevated mortgage rates
US initial jobless claims rose 232k in week ended Oct 18, versus 181k week ended Sep 19
NA
First release since government shutdown ended suggests no major job market deterioration
German construction permits rose 7.8k in Sep, versus 7.1k in Aug
NA; YoY, building permits rose 28.3% in Sep, versus 6.8% in Aug
Non-residental construction to outperform in 2026 on increased public capex
Japanese core machine orders rose 4.2% MoM in Sep, versus -0.9% fall in Aug
Stronger than expected 2%; YoY, core machine orders rose 11.6% in Sep, versus 1.6% in Aug
Volatile series; underlying trend shows gradual improvement in capex appetite
Test Your Knowledge
Why is the bungalow of late Singaporean prime minister Lee Kwan Yew’s a bone of contention?
- The government wants to develop the area with high-rises, but Lee’s relatives oppose the plan
- The government wants to turn the house into a museum, against the late prime minister’s wishes
- The government is pondering whether to prosecute Lee’s descendants for illegal structural modifications
- The new owner has painted the bungalow purple, prompting cries of desecration
Chart of the Week
China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022. Chinese policymakers are likely to set a fairly ambitious growth target for next year, in part because they do not want to show economic weakness while negotiating with the US.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
14 Nov 2025
The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.
Tariff Troubles
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Understanding The New Trade Regime
In today’s Monitor, we continue our analysis of what Donald Trump’s new trade regime means for the world economy, explain how Indian prime minister Narendra Modi blundered and wound up facing a 50% tariff, and argue that none of the conditions for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war are in place.
Where Tariffs Leave US Industry
Late Thursday the US president signed two executive orders cementing—for now—the new tariff rates announced piecemeal over recent days in a series of social media posts and bilateral deals. The higher tariffs on imported inputs are but one part of a broader story that is shifting the narrative for US manufacturing. In this Daily, Kai Xian examines the other factors.
Japan’s Flaky Trade Deal
The US-Japan trade deal announced late Tuesday in Washington triggered a powerful rally in Japanese automaker stocks. But the anomalies and distortions implied by the limited details of the deal so far available mean the provisions of this “framework agreement” are unlikely to survive in their current form, warns Udith Sikand.
US economy & markets
The Tide Ebbs For Private Credit
The cockroaches continue to scurry out of the skirting. On Monday, it emerged that the FBI is investigating a clutch of private credit borrowers. However, the focus on fraudulent borrowing and denials that these problems are endemic in private credit masks a deeper truth: high water has passed for the business, and the tide for private credit is now receding. The forces driving this ebb tide are positive for large US banks.
Navigating The AI Bubble: Buy Chinese Tech And US Power
Notwithstanding renewed market jitters over lofty valuations, the artificial intelligence race shows no sign of slowing, with US tech firms continuing to advance aggressive capital spending plans. Yet these ambitions are running up against a new constraint—not chip supply, but electricity availability. As this constraint tightens, investors may need to rethink their positioning for the next leg of the AI capex boom.
After The Shutdown
After the Senate voted to keep the federal government funded until January 30, the longest ever US government shutdown seems set to end with a whimper. The House of Representatives will vote on the bill as early as Wednesday, with US president Donald Trump already declaring “a very big victory.” Kai Xian looks at the near-term impacts from this development.
Why Are Americans Paying More For Electricity And Gas?
Rising electricity demand from data centers—and the resulting strain on supply and prices—has become a dominant theme in US energy markets. Expanding US power supply capacity is essential to sustain economic growth. But Kai Xian reckons President Donald Trump’s policies are likely to add further upward pressure on US end-user electricity and gas prices.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Confidence Without Stimulus
Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
5 Nov 2025
Buoyed by their success negotiating with the US, and in achieving their growth target, China’s leadership is now exuding confidence. But macro policy has not yet done much to boost domestic demand, a stance that points to continued tensions in 2026. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics team assess China’s economic performance and the government’s policy agenda heading into the new year.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: An Increasingly Fragile US Consumer
Tan Kai Xian
13 Nov 2025
Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 3Q25
Louis-Vincent Gave
1 Oct 2025
Despite the fast and furious newsflow through the third quarter, foreign exchange and fixed income markets remained remarkably calm, giving room for AI enthusiasm to return with a vengeance, gold to surge, and the bull market in Chinese equities to accelerate. Against this backdrop, Louis considers both the headline trends and some of the more neglected developments of the last three months and examines the questions likely to dominate investors’ days in the coming quarter.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Inching Towards Capital Market Union
The German government has signaled it is willing to transfer key powers from its domestic securities regulator to ESMA, the Paris-based market EU regulator. With this reversal of Berlin’s longstanding position, progress on the EU’s perennially delayed capital markets union becomes possible. This is significant, argues Cedric, because even small steps towards a single European securities market could have appreciable macroeconomic effects.
A Limited Case For Extending Eurozone Duration
Has the time come to extend duration in eurozone fixed income? The question has persisted since the bond market sell-off in 2022. Over this period, investors have found short-term tactical opportunities to extend maturities. But for those with a longer-term horizon, maintaining a short-duration position has remained the more effective strategy.
Britain On The Brink
The United Kingdom has been one of the world’s worst performing economies and a value trap for both equity and bond investors since Brexit and the global financial crisis. Three months ago, Anatole wrote two articles arguing that Britain’s political economy was becoming so unsustainable that a cleansing crisis similar to the pound’s 1992 collapse could be in the offing. Ahead of Britain’s November 26 budget, he updates his argument, outlining the choices that Keir Starmer’s government must take in order to break out of a doom loop.
Old And New Eurozone Narratives
A series of data releases last week pointed to continued macroeconomic stability in the eurozone. Though modest, upside data surprises continue a trend of stronger-than-expected growth and inflation data that has persisted through most of the year. The eurozone economy is being buffeted by two opposing macroeconomic forces—an external deflationary shock from external factors, and a domestic reflationary shock. Cedric and August argue positive growth suggests that the domestic reflationary force is just prevailing.
Currencies
Takaichi, China And The Yen
Video: Investing In An Ungovernable Europe
The Renminbi’s Recent Run
What Money Is
Playing Emerging Market Carry
Three Stages For A Rally In Euro Assets
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Axis Of Energy
Convictions And Concerns
The Petro-Currency That Wasn’t
Geoeconomic Monitor: Digital Currencies And Financial Power
Oil Surplus Not All It Seems
