Gavekal Research

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

A slowdown in India’s headline GDP masks an improvement in the underlying drivers of growth, argue Udith and Tom. Now that election-related uncertainty is over, government spending should pick up and aid the incipient recovery in private consumption and investment. Indian bonds and equities should continue to fare well, with monetary easing likely to get underway soon.

China’s consumption growth has weakened for most of 2024, as the property-market downturn has softened the labor market and eroded household balance sheets. But since late September, policymakers have pivoted to a more stimulative approach to economic policy. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers for household consumption, and examines how the stimulus could change the current trajectory.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. The two parties differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this Strategy Chartbook, Will and KX compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.