Gavekal Research

As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.

As high inflation crimps consumption and interest rate hikes retard capital spending, Indian growth for 2022/23 is set to register a disappointing 7-7.5%. A slew of fiscal measures aimed at cooling inflation will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank of India. But in a global environment of resurgent price pressures and the threat of more supply disruptions, India seems set to undershoot its growth potential, argue Udith and Tom in their quarterly assessment.

China’s companies are facing a new shock to growth from renewed lockdowns in 2022, along with weakening global demand and higher costs. How prepared are they to deal with this latest wave of disruption? In his annual chartbook, Thomas assesses the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector through a detailed examination of income statements and balance sheets.

The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

Around the world, governments, central banks, corporates, consumers and investors are all revising down their growth outlooks. In many economies, the question is not whether there will be a slowdown, but how deep it will be.