Most recent
Gavekal Dragonomics
Waiting For The Iran Impact
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
16 Mar 2026
China’s economic growth was resilient in the first two months of the year, with investment and consumption up. But the primary risk to China’s economic growth has emerged: the Iran conflict, especially if higher energy prices trigger global demand destruction that hits China’s export sector. Wei and the Dragonomics Team argue that policymakers will remain in wait-and-see mode before deploying stimulus if the fallout warrants it.
Gavekal Research
‘Buy On The Sound Of Gunfire’ Isn’t Always A Good Idea
Anatole Kaletsky
16 Mar 2026
Having spent the past four years arguing with clients about whether geopolitics or monetary policy now matters more for asset allocation decisions, Anatole finds the complacency of US equity investors both shocking and yet unsurprising. Shocking, because the main US benchmarks are still close to their all-time records. Not surprising, because many professional investors still seem to believe with almost religious fervor that geopolitics does not matter for serious investors.
Gavekal Research
The Iran War Uncertainties
Louis-Vincent Gave
16 Mar 2026
As things stand, markets have broadly taken the Iran war in their stride. The MSCI World index is down about -5% since late February and the global bond index has shed roughly -2%. Is this a case of markets climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”? Or are markets being complacent because past geopolitical shocks never cast that long a shadow?
Gavekal Research
The Impacts Of War On US Consumption
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
13 Mar 2026
A sustained war in the Middle East that drives energy prices sharply higher would normally be expected to weigh on US consumption. The key question is how large the effect may be. To answer that, Will and Kai Xian consider the channels through which this faraway conflict could affect the US consumer: energy prices, energy investment, interest rates and wealth effects.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Out Of Deflation, Into Cost-Push Inflation
Thomas Gatley, Wei He
Pressure Builds On Local Officials
Andrew Batson, Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor
The Bargain In The Five-Year Plan
Andrew Batson
Dialing Back Fiscal Stimulus
Wei He
A Comfortable Bystander
Arthur Kroeber
Gavekal Research
Europe’s Energy Shock: Not 2022 All Over Again
Cedric Gemehl
Video: How Long A US Haven?
Tan Kai Xian
Asia’s Energy Shock
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand
Exogenous Shocks And Bond Returns
Louis-Vincent Gave
Exchange Rates And Oil Shocks
Charles Gave
Gavekal Technologies
China Targets Full-Chain Chip Breakthrough
Laila Khawaja
Will AI Supercharge The China Shock?
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock
China Enriches Export Control Toolkit
Laila Khawaja
Washington’s AI Anxiety Rises
Laila Khawaja
US Biotech Is Safe From China (For Now)
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet
The Global Portfolio Regatta
Didier Darcet
Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
Didier Darcet
Time To Take Profits On Metals?
Didier Darcet
The Big Long 2.0
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
On Price Controls And Export Restrictions
Louis-Vincent Gave
9 Mar 2026
In the eyes of the voting public and of US allies, Donald Trump would very much carry the blame for the surging oil price. And with eight months to go before the midterm elections, this would leave the White House in a political predicament. If oil prices stay above US$100/bbl, the pressure on Trump to “do something” about rising prices will become intense, with the troubling prospect of price controls and export restrictions on the horizon.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US JOLTs job openings rose to 6.95mn in Jan, from 6.55mn in Dec
Higher than expected 6.70mn
The US labor market is softening but not collapsing; Iran war impact should be mild
Eurozone industrial production fell -1.5% MoM in Jan, down from -0.6% in Dec
Below expected 0.6%; YoY, ind. prod. fell -1.2% in Jan, down from 2.2% in Dec
Mainly Ireland pharma volatility & payback from late-2025 German output
UK monthly GDP was unchanged MoM in Jan, from 0.1% MoM in Dec
Below expected 0.2%; ind. prod. fell -0.1% MoM in Jan while services were unchanged
Growth weak even before energy shock; this risks delaying rate cuts & recovery
China fixed asset investment year-to-date rose 1.8% YoY in Feb, from -3.8%
Higher than expected -0.4%
Higher energy prices will likely cause China mfg. margin squeeze; bad news for capex
Test Your Knowledge
Why has British digital bank Monzo’s annual spending summaries come under fire from its clients?
- Some said it mocked their spending habits and misused their personal data
- Its new AI-generated summary hallucinated figures and made people panic
- The summary compared clients’ bank balances to the wealthiest account
Chart of the Week
Asia heavily relies on imported oil, with major economies importing more than 90% of their total consumption. Much of this supply comes from the Middle East, leaving Asia particularly exposed to disruptions caused by the ongoing war in Iran.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: The War And Markets
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Arthur Kroeber
10 Mar 2026
Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.
Tariff Troubles
After The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
The shift in the tariff landscape following the US Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that all tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under IEEPA—the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act—are illegal is good news for equity investors. But it is not great news, writes Will Denyer.
The EM Triple Whammy On Full Display
It would be tempting to ascribe the simultaneous US dollar, bond, and equity market sell-off to the self-owned “crisis” around Greenland and to Trump’s threat to use tariffs against (former?) friends to force a change of sovereignty. Still, the current sell-off in bonds, and equities, may also be driven by other important factors, says Louis.
How Europe Will Respond To Trump’s Greenland Tariffs
On Saturday, US president Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to his plans to annex Greenland. Since then, attention has shifted to how Europe might respond. Cedric argues that conciliation and deescalation remains Europe’s first response to Trump’s new tariff threat, but there is now a greater chance that the EU retaliates in earnest if that strategy fails.
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
US economy & markets
The Impacts Of War On US Consumption
A sustained war in the Middle East that drives energy prices sharply higher would normally be expected to weigh on US consumption. The key question is how large the effect may be. To answer that, Will and Kai Xian consider the channels through which this faraway conflict could affect the US consumer: energy prices, energy investment, interest rates and wealth effects.
Hedging In A Time Of War
War is punishing for portfolios, especially when it disrupts the flow of oil and gas. War can also affect markets through higher government borrowing, rising inflation, differing monetary policy responses and changes in the economic outlook of affected regions. The effect of these forces may explain why some hedges and safe havens have underperformed during the first week of the US-led war against Iran, says Will.
Picking Up Loans On The Cheap
As the US-led war in Iran consumes international investor attention, private credit concerns continue to bubble up within the US itself. Practitioners such as Blue Owl and Blackstone have seen their share prices crater as investors question the quality of non-bank, privately negotiated lending. The sell-off raises four questions.
US Banks And The NatSec Intersection
US bank stocks took a beating Monday, with the S&P 500 bank index falling a painful -4.3%—almost as much as US software stocks. But Kai Xian argues that banks are emerging as one of the most promising ways to play the US government’s drive to step up investment in US national and economic security, and the recent fall may provide a buying opportunity.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: How Long A US Haven?
Tan Kai Xian
12 Mar 2026
Since the United States-led war against Iran started, US assets have received a safe-haven bid. This reverses a narrative that had taken hold among global investors before the outbreak of hostilities to sell an increasingly unreliable America. The argument had developed that the US was proving a bad partner and pursuing currency debasement policies. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses whether such a “sell America” trade had ever actually started and, looking through this war, what happens next to capital flows.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
8 Jan 2026
Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Europe’s Energy Shock: Not 2022 All Over Again
Europe remains a large net importer of energy, so higher global energy prices typically translate into higher inflation and weaker growth. The question for investors is whether
the latest shock will prove as severe as Europe’s 2022 energy crisis. Cedric argues that the Old Continent will probably take a softer punch this time around, and analyzes the impact on its assets.
Sweden As An Indicator Of Capital Flows
The debate over whether global investors are beginning to reduce exposure to US assets has intensified. After a decade of US equity outperformance, dollar strength and deep capital market dominance, signs of diversification are emerging. Sweden offers an unusually clear window into this change.
Poland’s Advantages
In recent years, Poland’s economy has grown far faster than those of neighbors Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia. This divergence within the “Visegrád Four” coincided with a sharp widening in Poland’s fiscal deficit from 1.7% of GDP in 2021 to around 6.8% in 2025. In this report, August explains why that fiscal largesse has not undermined the longer term Polish growth story, which continues to benefit from tailwinds as it plays catchup with economies to its west and protects against a menacing Russia to its east.
The Changing Of Lagarde
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde is reportedly preparing to step down from her post at the ECB well before her term ends in October 2027. Whatever Lagarde’s intentions, it is certain that four of the six members of the ECB’s executive board will be replaced by the end of 2027. This prospective game of musical chairs was always likely to generate speculative headlines well in advance of the actual changes. In reality, there will be no simple bilateral stitch-up between Paris and Berlin.
Currencies
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
A New Reflationary Force?
Don’t Bet On A Forever Weak Yen
Oil & commodities
The Iran War Uncertainties
Injurious Exposure
Dire Straits
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Iran Outcome
Is Clean Energy A Better Hedge Than Oil?
Geoeconomic Monitor: Who’s The Real Winner?
