Most recent
Gavekal Research
After Trump’s Rout, Will Global Trade Keep Defying Politics?
Tom Miller
10 Nov 2026
Despite wars and tariffs, global trade is growing at its fastest pace in 15 years, fueled by the AI investment boom and exporters adapting to disruption. Chinese manufacturers have proved particularly resilient, finding new markets and rerouting goods through third countries to get around US tariffs. Still, Tom says that a slowdown in AI spending, any further disruption to energy supplies or a concerted backlash against Chinese exports could yet threaten the outlook.
Gavekal Research
Christmas Comes Early For The US Consumer
Tan Kai Xian
10 Nov 2026
Despite the recent convulsions in the US equity market, things are looking up for the ordinary US consumer. The labor market has tightened. And the Democratic Party’s gains in last Tuesday’s midterm elections point to cheaper pump prices for gasoline and diesel, as well as a less severe stance on immigration. There remain sizable risks, but the headwinds that have held back a large portion of the US consumer market now appear to be fading.
Gavekal Research
Markets Anticipate End Of Iran War
Anatole Kaletsky
9 Nov 2026
Ending the Iran war will be necessary if Donald Trump is to tackle high energy prices, high inflation and high interest rates in an attempt to burnish his legacy as president. Clearly, the oil market is already pricing in a higher probability of peace with Iran. In this paper, Anatole makes the case that the market has also begun to price in the accelerated growth-to-value rotation that will accompany a peace agreement.
Gavekal Research
Mounting Headwinds For US Assets
Louis-Vincent Gave
9 Nov 2026
The running theme of our research for the past few years has been that the age of massive US outperformance was drawing to an end, and that the surge higher in US relative performance which accompanied Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory was probably an exponential “blowoff top” that is fairly typical of climactic bull markets. The question now confronting us is whether recent events will revive US outperformance? Or stall it?
Gavekal Dragonomics
For Chinese Equities, The Good News Is In Short Supply
Thomas Gatley
Macro Update: Running On Exports
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Trying To Save The Slow Bull Market
Thomas Gatley, Xiaoxi Zhang
Anti-Corruption After The Plenum
Andrew Batson
How To Get Growth In 2027
Wei He
Gavekal Research
Is Japan’s Repatriation Wave Starting?
Udith Sikand
As The Clouds Part
Louis-Vincent Gave
Webinar: Divergence And Dynamism In China's Economy
Andrew Batson, Christopher Beddor, Thomas Gatley, Wei He
Video: Investment Narratives After The Midterms
Will Denyer
The Social Stability Question
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
Permitting Reform’s Big Chance
AJ Cortese
China’s AI Race, US’s AIDC Debate
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber
How Wuxi AppTec Stayed Sanction-Proof
Tom Hancock
Who Is Consuming Chinese Tokens?
Laila Khawaja
Power Lessons From China
AJ Cortese
Gavekal-IS
A New Misery Index
Didier Darcet
Complexity Versus Hierarchy
Didier Darcet
The Big Neutral
Didier Darcet
Why Aren’t Stocks Plunging?
Didier Darcet
Amathia
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
One Thing After Another
Louis-Vincent Gave
29 Oct 2026
From Brazil’s election shock and the Anthropic IPO to shifting Middle Eastern alliances and the prospect of peace in Ukraine, a hectic week of developments has thrown up fresh risks and opportunities for investors. Louis examines eight major events and their market implications, including the potential opening of Canada’s energy sector, China’s offshore tax crackdown and India’s efforts to attract foreign capital.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US NY Fed 1y ahead consumer inflation expectations were 3.9% in Oct, the same as in Sep
Above expected 3.8%
Tightening job market and falling energy prices pulling inflation expectations two ways
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index fell to 2.4 in Nov, from 2.7 in Aug
Above expected 2.1
Eurozone recovery shows early signs of losing momentum even as Germany improves
Japanese real household spending fell -6.8% YoY in Sep, versus -3.1% in Aug
Weaker than expected -3%
Falling consumption despite rising real wages poses dilemma for BoJ
Mexico's CPI rose 3.8% YoY in Oct, versus 3.5% in Sep
Inflation warmer than expected 3.7%; core CPI rose 3.8% YoY in Oct, the same pace as in Sep
With price pressures elevated, Banxico likely to remain on prolonged pause
Test Your Knowledge
Last Saturday, the US military announced “Task Force Iron Gate.” What is the new task force’s mission?
- To test the hemoglobin levels of US service personnel to ensure they are sufficiently red-blooded
- To ensure no Chinese steel is used to build the US Navy’s next generation of warships
- To close loopholes in the US military’s “ironclad blockade against Iran”
Chart of the Week
Global goods trade volumes are growing at the fastest pace in 15 years (aside from the Covid rebound), defying tariffs and the Iran war. AI spending has accelerated the rebound, contributing close to half of all trade growth in 1H26. Two major risks threaten this growth: first, if AI capex dries up, global trade would lose a powerful engine, leaving East Asian exporters particularly vulnerable. Second, the tolerance for absorbing more Chinese exports is diminishing. Protectionism would disrupt production and squeeze margins, compounding any slowdown.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Divergence And Dynamism In China's Economy
Andrew Batson, Christopher Beddor, Thomas Gatley, Wei He
6 Nov 2026
More striking than China's ability to, yet again, deliver GDP growth in line with government targets is the increasingly wide divergence between the flourishing and languishing parts of the economy. Electric-vehicle exports are surging as domestic sales decline; technology investment races ahead while households stay cautious. How much dynamism underlies these disparate pictures? How will policy manage the risks? Our team of analysts discussed the key questions around China's outlook.
The Iran War And Fallout
One Thing After Another
From Brazil’s election shock and the Anthropic IPO to shifting Middle Eastern alliances and the prospect of peace in Ukraine, a hectic week of developments has thrown up fresh risks and opportunities for investors. Louis examines eight major events and their market implications, including the potential opening of Canada’s energy sector, China’s offshore tax crackdown and India’s efforts to attract foreign capital.
The Non-Threatening Energy Crisis
This weekend’s media made for sobering reading. Between bombs flying in the Middle East, more refineries blowing up in Russia and US senators calling for petroleum export bans, it felt like enough negative news flow to send hearts racing. But most major global equity markets remain close to all-time highs. Louis examines the possible reasons for this counterintuitive configuration.
No Good Outcomes For Energy Inflation
It is Wednesday. Warring parties in the Middle East are again exchanging fire, and energy prices are spiking. For investors, it may be tempting to shrug off the latest flare-up, but disregarding the latest escalation in the Persian Gulf would be rash. Developments in the region will matter greatly for the trajectory of inflation over the coming months, and therefore for financial markets.
The Record High Diesel Prices
Because of soaring crack spreads, diesel prices everywhere around the world are making new all-time highs, at least in nominal terms. In real terms, the diesel price is still lower than the 2022 spike that followed the start of the Ukraine war. But Louis points out that with a real term diesel price above US$5/gallon, few good things happen.
US economy & markets
Christmas Comes Early For The US Consumer
Despite the recent convulsions in the US equity market, things are looking up for the ordinary US consumer. The labor market has tightened. And the Democratic Party’s gains in last Tuesday’s midterm elections point to cheaper pump prices for gasoline and diesel, as well as a less severe stance on immigration. There remain sizable risks, but the headwinds that have held back a large portion of the US consumer market now appear to be fading.
A Blue Congress, Mr. Veto And A Treasury Twist
Despite the Democratic Party’s victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, the Republicans will still have the opportunity to push through legislation in the lame duck session between now and January, and after that Donald Trump will retain his presidential veto over new legislation. Will Denyer argues that despite the probability of adverse regulatory action at the state and local level, Tuesday’s election result may not prove as damaging as feared for the US AI capex boom, or for US assets more broadly.
The Case For More Mega-Cap Outperformance
October was a tough month for the mega-cap tech stocks that have driven US market outperformance over the last 10 years. Since early October, Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet stocks have fallen as investors have grown nervous about how the AI capex boom is being financed and jittery about the returns big tech companies will earn on the trillions they have poured in so far. So, is the era of mega-cap outperformance coming to its end? There are solid reasons to think not.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Election Season
This week’s elections dealt crushing blows right-wing candidates in Brazil and Serbia. With next week’s US midterms looking ominous for the Republicans, voters appear to be turning against the populist right. Upcoming elections in Spain and France will show whether the tide has turned, says Tom Miller. If Israel and the US restart their bombing campaign in Iran, global oil prices will surge to new highs, writes Tom Holland. And there is little Congress can do to stop it, even if the Democrats take the Senate in the midterms, argues Will Denyer.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Running On Exports
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
3 Nov 2026
China’s GDP growth improved in Q3, and it is now almost certain that full-year growth will land within the targeted range. But that growth is highly uneven and heavily reliant on exports, while domestic consumption remains weak by almost any measure. Policymakers may well need to introduce more policy support in order to meet their growth goal next year. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team examine the state of China’s economy and the outlook going into 2027.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Corporate Update: Waiting For Capex
Rohan Daswani, Udith Sikand
28 Aug 2026
India remains one of the world’s strongest growth stories, supported by resilient domestic demand, improving corporate balance sheets and strong credit growth. Yet as the boost from public infrastructure investment fades, the big question is whether these strengths can finally translate into a sustained revival in private investment. Rohan and Udith assess the prospects for that transition and the implication for Indian equities, where performance is increasingly diverging across sectors.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Investment Narratives After The Midterms
Will Denyer
5 Nov 2026
The reaction of markets after the Democratic Party won control of both houses of the US Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections suggests investors expect big shifts in the two narratives that have dominated financial markets in 2026: the AI capex boom, and the US war against Iran and its impact on global energy prices. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines how these all-important narratives are set to evolve in the post-election environment.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 3Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
5 Oct 2026
After the third quarter saw a brutal sell-off in major government bond markets, with yields breaking out to a generational high, Louis takes stock. In this Quarterly Strategy Review, he examines the forces driving the sell-off and asks the key questions facing investors everywhere.
Emerging markets
EMs Are The New DMs
Emerging-market bonds have dramatically outperformed their developed-market peers since 2020, helped by greater policy credibility, deeper domestic financial markets and reduced reliance on foreign investors. With DM bond yields now hitting multi-year highs, policymakers may increasingly look to the EM playbook, including softer forms of financial repression, to stabilize their markets, says Udith. From the US to Japan, signs of this shift are already emerging, suggesting that EMs may have a thing or two to teach DMs.
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Europe's economy
In UK Budget, No News Is Good News
When the British government presents a budget which turns out to be a total non-event, it should be seen as a cause for celebration and a bullish event for UK financial markets. This is what happened this week. Anatole argues that it is too early to say whether Burnham’s economic policies will make sense, but a properly strategic reassessment of economic policy, welfare reform, fiscal plans and European relations will happen.
The French Effect On ECB Policy
The market expects the European Central Bank’s bigwigs to leave their policy rate unchanged when they sit down in Frankfurt on Wednesday for their two-day meeting. On one front, inflation is above-target and accelerating. On the other, sovereign stresses are mounting, especially in France. This confronts policymakers with a question: with the French bond market under pressure, can they continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation?
Pricing Europe’s Winter Demand For Natural Gas
So far, the Iran war energy shock has affected European consumers almost entirely through the channel of higher oil-product prices. But as the European Union heads into winter with historically low levels of natural gas in storage, the necessity of paying up to secure imports of liquefied natural gas over the coming months is likely to push gas and electricity prices higher for Europe’s consumers. In this study, Cedric examines different scenarios for Europe’s winter gas demand to gauge how severe the shock could get.
What Would It Take For Another Euro Crisis?
The widening of French sovereign bond spreads has revived fears about another euro crisis, but today's eurozone is far better equipped to contain financial contagion than it was in 2012. The ECB's expanded financial backstops, greater European integration and the moderation of Euroskeptic parties all help explain why markets are treating France's difficulties as a national credit problem rather than a threat to the monetary union, says Cedric.
Currencies
Important Recent Developments
The Slump In Asian Currencies
A Concentrated Inflationary Boom Or A Bet On The Fed?
Demand And Supply Of Money
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
Oil & commodities
No Good Outcomes For Energy Inflation
Video: Towards An Uncertain Winter For Energy
The Quid Pro Quo That Wasn’t
The Energy Risk Remains (Part I)
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
Video: Oil After Hormuz
