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Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: Dominance Diminished
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland, Tom Miller
20 Mar 2026
Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach of solving problems by exerting US dominance is running into trouble in Iran, argues Arthur Kroeber. Meanwhile, Tom Holland examines the implications of the latest attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, Arthur looks ahead to the postponed summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, and Tom Miller examines how in the long term, China may emerge as the economic victor from the war in Iran.
Gavekal Research
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Udith Sikand
20 Mar 2026
Thursday saw an awkward meeting between Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi and US president Donald Trump in the White House. The east Asian powerhouse wants to stay out of the US-led war in Iran but is massively reliant on gas and oil imported from the Persian Gulf. Udith explores the dilemmas faced by Japan’s policymakers, as they seek to weather an energy shock without sparking an adverse stagflationary economic cycle.
Gavekal Research
Consuming Through An Energy Shock
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson
20 Mar 2026
As hydrocarbon prices surge amid tit-for-tat attacks against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, European households look exposed. Last week, we argued that this energy crisis was less threatening than the one Europe faced after Russia invaded Ukraine. Even so, the impact will depend on the size and duration of the disruption as well as the response of labor markets, fiscal policy and household saving rates.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Property Bottom Is Not Yet Here
Xiaoxi Zhang
20 Mar 2026
China’s policymakers appear unfazed by the continued housing-market decline, and contend that the market “has entered a bottoming phase.” Xiaoxi examines the evidence and finds the government’s argument uncompelling: with officials unlikely to provide much support and ongoing supply-demand imbalances in many cities, the property market will probably not bottom in 2026.
Gavekal Dragonomics
China’s Continuing Competitiveness
Andrew Batson
Waiting For The Iran Impact
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Out Of Deflation, Into Cost-Push Inflation
Thomas Gatley, Wei He
Pressure Builds On Local Officials
Andrew Batson, Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor
The Bargain In The Five-Year Plan
Andrew Batson
Gavekal Research
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
Louis-Vincent Gave
Bearish Gold
Will Denyer
Time To Move To An Indian ‘Turkish Portfolio’
Charles Gave
More Resilient Than You Think
Tan Kai Xian
War, Monetary Policy And Forex
Will Denyer
Gavekal Technologies
Another Round Of Analog Chip Price Hikes
Laila Khawaja
China Targets Full-Chain Chip Breakthrough
Laila Khawaja
Will AI Supercharge The China Shock?
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock
China Enriches Export Control Toolkit
Laila Khawaja
Washington’s AI Anxiety Rises
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet
The Global Portfolio Regatta
Didier Darcet
Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
Didier Darcet
Time To Take Profits On Metals?
Didier Darcet
The Big Long 2.0
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
On Price Controls And Export Restrictions
Louis-Vincent Gave
9 Mar 2026
In the eyes of the voting public and of US allies, Donald Trump would very much carry the blame for the surging oil price. And with eight months to go before the midterm elections, this would leave the White House in a political predicament. If oil prices stay above US$100/bbl, the pressure on Trump to “do something” about rising prices will become intense, with the troubling prospect of price controls and export restrictions on the horizon.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
European Central Bank left the benchmark deposit facility rate unchanged at 2%
As expected; the council was unanimous in its decision
ECB "well-positioned" for current energy shock which will be near-term inflationary
Bank of England left the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%
As expected; the council was unanimous in its decision
BoE turning hawkish, flagging higher inflation persistence risks from the energy shock
Swiss National Bank left the benchmark rate unchanged at 0%
As expected
SNB highlighting forex intervention as main tool against CHF strength
Bank of Japan left the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75%
As expected
Despite downside risks to growth, BoJ still signaling rate hike in Apr on the cards
Test Your Knowledge
Vending machines accounted for about 48% of drinks sold in Japan in 1995. What is that figure now?
- 23%
- 39%
- 65%
Chart of the Week
As the Iran war continues, higher commodity prices will mechanically lift China's headline inflation. This will likely push the PPI out of deflation and could turn the GDP deflator positive, fulfilling a government goal to reverse price declines. However, this "silver lining" is flawed as the inflation is cost-push, not demand-driven. It significantly increases input costs for China's industrial sector, potentially reducing already-low corporate profit margins.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: The War And Markets
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Arthur Kroeber
10 Mar 2026
Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.
Tariff Troubles
After The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
The shift in the tariff landscape following the US Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that all tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under IEEPA—the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act—are illegal is good news for equity investors. But it is not great news, writes Will Denyer.
The EM Triple Whammy On Full Display
It would be tempting to ascribe the simultaneous US dollar, bond, and equity market sell-off to the self-owned “crisis” around Greenland and to Trump’s threat to use tariffs against (former?) friends to force a change of sovereignty. Still, the current sell-off in bonds, and equities, may also be driven by other important factors, says Louis.
How Europe Will Respond To Trump’s Greenland Tariffs
On Saturday, US president Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to his plans to annex Greenland. Since then, attention has shifted to how Europe might respond. Cedric argues that conciliation and deescalation remains Europe’s first response to Trump’s new tariff threat, but there is now a greater chance that the EU retaliates in earnest if that strategy fails.
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
US economy & markets
Bearish Gold
Gold looks increasingly vulnerable to a major correction. The rally of the past two years, which has seen the price more than double, was been driven by several factors. Monetary easing by the central banks since mid-2024 supported prices, official and private investors sought diversification in the metal, and there were concerns over Federal Reserve independence. At least two of these drivers now appear to be weakening.
More Resilient Than You Think
“Economic activity is nothing but energy transformed,” as Charles often intones. When the Iran war began on February 28, oil and gas prices spiked and global equities sold off. But US companies are better positioned than most to absorb prolonged higher energy costs if Middle Eastern oil and gas supply remains disrupted, because they have become more adept at “transforming” energy.
War, Monetary Policy And Forex
The Iran war has introduced an inflationary shock into the global economy, complicating central banks’ plans to ease monetary policy. The key question for currency markets is how policymakers respond to the resulting energy-driven inflation. Which path they choose will depend largely on where inflation stood before the war began—and those differences could prove decisive for currency performance in the months ahead.
The Impacts Of War On US Consumption
A sustained war in the Middle East that drives energy prices sharply higher would normally be expected to weigh on US consumption. The key question is how large the effect may be. To answer that, Will and Kai Xian consider the channels through which this faraway conflict could affect the US consumer: energy prices, energy investment, interest rates and wealth effects.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Udith Sikand
20 Mar 2026
Thursday saw an awkward meeting between Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi and US president Donald Trump in the White House. The east Asian powerhouse wants to stay out of the US-led war in Iran but is massively reliant on gas and oil imported from the Persian Gulf. Udith explores the dilemmas faced by Japan’s policymakers, as they seek to weather an energy shock without sparking an adverse stagflationary economic cycle.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
8 Jan 2026
Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Consuming Through An Energy Shock
As hydrocarbon prices surge amid tit-for-tat attacks against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, European households look exposed. Last week, we argued that this energy crisis was less threatening than the one Europe faced after Russia invaded Ukraine. Even so, the impact will depend on the size and duration of the disruption as well as the response of labor markets, fiscal policy and household saving rates.
Europe’s Energy Shock: Not 2022 All Over Again
Europe remains a large net importer of energy, so higher global energy prices typically translate into higher inflation and weaker growth. The question for investors is whether
the latest shock will prove as severe as Europe’s 2022 energy crisis. Cedric argues that the Old Continent will probably take a softer punch this time around, and analyzes the impact on its assets.
Sweden As An Indicator Of Capital Flows
The debate over whether global investors are beginning to reduce exposure to US assets has intensified. After a decade of US equity outperformance, dollar strength and deep capital market dominance, signs of diversification are emerging. Sweden offers an unusually clear window into this change.
Poland’s Advantages
In recent years, Poland’s economy has grown far faster than those of neighbors Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia. This divergence within the “Visegrád Four” coincided with a sharp widening in Poland’s fiscal deficit from 1.7% of GDP in 2021 to around 6.8% in 2025. In this report, August explains why that fiscal largesse has not undermined the longer term Polish growth story, which continues to benefit from tailwinds as it plays catchup with economies to its west and protects against a menacing Russia to its east.
Currencies
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
A New Reflationary Force?
Don’t Bet On A Forever Weak Yen
Oil & commodities
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
The Iran War Uncertainties
Injurious Exposure
Dire Straits
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Iran Outcome
