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How China Is Winning  The Lithium Race

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How China Is Winning The Lithium Race

Yanmei Xie
18 May 2022
South America’s “lithium triangle” contains more than half the world’s known reserves of this precious, silver-white metal. US and Australian companies dominate existing mines, but Chinese firms are the boldest investors in new projects, backed by strong political and financial support from Beijing.
The Cost Of Credibility

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The Cost Of Credibility

Will Denyer
18 May 2022
The US Federal Reserve is finally gaining some traction in its efforts to restore its credibility as an inflation manager, and the market is starting to take the Fed seriously: real yields on US treasuries have returned to positive territory and inflation expectations have begun to moderate.

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Foreign Capital Pulls Back

Wei He, Thomas Gatley
18 May 2022
Foreign investors sold down a record US$23.9bn of onshore Chinese stocks and bonds in the first quarter. Wei and Thomas argue that while the outlook is different for bonds and equities, overall portfolio capital inflows will be meaningfully smaller this year than in past.

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Paris Seminar, May 2022 (In French)

Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet, Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave
18 May 2022
Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.
Test Your Knowledge
At the height of last year’s logistics trouble, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach announced an escalating US$100 fee for each container sitting at terminals more than nine days. How much have shippers had to pay up since then?
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Chart of the Week

Week 20, 2022

Week 20, 2022

The Misery Index adds up the year-on-year inflation rate and the unemployment rate to measure the degree of economic stress for regular folks. Today, the rapid acceleration of inflation has sent the index to its highest level since at least the global financial crisis, reflecting the rising cost of living across the western world. What's more, spikes in the misery index usually coincide with recessions.

Ukraine Fallout

The Microsoft-ification Of Warfare
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The End Of The Unipolar Era
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World Enters New Liquidity Crisis
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Gas! Gas! Gas!
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Why India Has Russia’s Back
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CYA As A Guiding Principle (2022)
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2022

Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
13 May 2022
As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.

India chartbook

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India Macro Update: The Energy Shock

Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
30 Mar 2022
India remains on course to outpace other major economies in 2022 but its momentum is waning. As a big energy importer, the country will be hit hard by surging oil and commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions will force it to make difficult choices that could affect its long-term economic prospects. What will this mean for Indian assets?

China chartbook

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Macro Update: Growth Interrupted

Dragonomics Team
27 Apr 2022
As 2022 opened, China’s economy showed signs of stabilizing as the government shifted to a more supportive policy stance. That trajectory has now been abruptly interrupted by the lockdown of Shanghai and many other major cities to stamp out Covid-19. In our latest quarterly chartbook, the Dragonomics team outlines how this shock will affect the economy, policy and markets.

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Latest video

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Video: The Quirinale Question

Nick Andrews
14 Jan 2022
The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

Oil & commodities

How China Is Winning The Lithium Race
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The Fallout From Food
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World Enters New Liquidity Crisis
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The Clash Of Empires Intensifies
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Why India Has Russia’s Back
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The Bad News Bus Arrives For EMs
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China tech

Multinationals Turn Cautious
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London Seminar — March 2022
Better Manufacturing Through Science
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Dependence And Restraint
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Congress Pushes Decoupling
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Guiding The Gig Economy
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From the archives: oldies but goodies

Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite
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Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite

Anatole Kaletsky
In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes. I believe that both of these obsessions will soon be forgotten.
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?

Louis-Vincent Gave
The role of a society’s elite is to rise to the challenges of the times, and find solutions fitting to those times, even if this involves a radical break with the past. But the modus operandi for most leaders is to try and maintain the status quo. But if the problems are large enough, this does not work, and the same challenges reappear until either a solution is found, the elite is replaced by a new elite, or the country, system or civilization disappears.
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The High Cost Of Free Money
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The High Cost Of Free Money

Charles Gave
Perhaps the most famous economic law is the one that there is no such thing as a free lunch. By keeping US short rates at abnormally low levels beyond the financial crisis and as growth bounces back beyond the dreams of the wildest optimists, the Fed increasingly seems to be trying to ‘feed the US economy for nothing’. This is worrying, for extended periods of cheap money typically come back with a hefty price tag.
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