Most recent
Gavekal Research
A Stupid World
Charles Gave
14 Jul 2026
Charles argues that today's seemingly irrational markets are the logical consequence of decades of misguided monetary and fiscal policy, leaving investors trapped in a system increasingly driven by momentum rather than genuine price discovery. He contends that the US dollar is steadily losing its traditional monetary functions, while policymakers are, in effect, asking foreign investors to finance America's deficits in exchange for a stake in the country's AI-driven future.
Gavekal Research
Japan’s ‘Invest More At Home’ Plan
Udith Sikand
14 Jul 2026
On Friday, after Japanese finance minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would encourage domestic institutions to invest more domestically, the yen strengthened. Then on Monday, as market participants realized that the government had no immediate plans the yen weakened again. Should Katayama’s words be disregarded entirely? Udith seeks to answer that question.
Gavekal Research
Will The AI Boom Prove Inflationary Or Deflationary?
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
13 Jul 2026
Is the AI boom ultimately inflationary or deflationary? While heavy capital spending and competition for scarce resources are currently adding to inflationary pressures, the longer-term productivity gains from AI could eventually reverse that dynamic. With Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh now making AI’s impact on productivity, employment and inflation a central focus of monetary policy, understanding where we are in this transition has become increasingly important for investors, say Will and KX.
Gavekal Research
The Divergence In US Corporate Earnings Growth
Louis-Vincent Gave
13 Jul 2026
The key driver of the US bull market has been the relentless drive higher of US corporate earnings. This surge in corporate profits is very visible in S&P 500 reported earnings, but less visible in the profit numbers contained in the US national income and product accounts data. Louis asks whether divergences between the two series deliver any interesting messages.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Why Luxury Housing Is Booming
Xiaoxi Zhang
Different Provinces, Same Industrial Policies
Tilly Zhang
In Search Of Fiscal Sustainability
Wei He
Transforming Trucking
Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley
Developer Restructuring Loses Momentum
Xiaoxi Zhang
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: Dire Straits, Again
Tom Holland, Tom Miller
France And The Limits Of Eurozone Spread Compression
Cedric Gemehl
Video: Explaining China’s Retail Sales Slump
Ernan Cui
Europe’s Rearmament Is Hardening
August Gudmundsson
Finding Value In An Age Of Accelerating Creative Destruction
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
Five Questions On China Biotech
Tom Hancock, AJ Cortese, Huang Shichan
Memory Shortage Hits Smartphones
Laila Khawaja
The New Energy System Takes Shape
AJ Cortese, Arthur Kroeber
CXMT Is Growing Fast, But Can’t Solve The DRAM Shortage
Laila Khawaja
Tesla’s Two Way Bet In Physical AI
AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock
Gavekal-IS
The Great Confusion Over Economic Quadrants
Didier Darcet
The Bond Portfolio For A Swiss Investor
Didier Darcet
From Desacralization To Resacralization Of Power
Didier Darcet
A Baby Shower For Information As An Asset Class
Didier Darcet
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
Will Denyer
12 Jun 2026
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
China trade surplus widened to US$125.6bn in Jun, from US$105.4bn in May
Surplus wider than expected US$120.1bn
Uptick driven by price surge for AI-related equipment on strong external demand
Germany's current account surplus narrowed to €10.4bn in May, from €16.6bn in Apr
NA
Due to weaker income flows, which more than offset rise in goods trade surplus
Indian CPI rose 4.4% YoY in Jun, versus 3.9% in May
Inflation warmer than expected 4.2%; core CPI rose 4.2% YoY in Jun, versus 3.8% in May
Inflation risks remain elevated on renewed Middle Eastern fighting and El Niño effect
Singapore's GDP rose 5.7% YoY in 2Q, versus 6.3% in 1Q
Stronger than expected 5.5%
Growth momentum driven by AI-related demand; expect MAS to continue tightening
Test Your Knowledge
Donald Trump wants to charge commercial ships 20% of their cargo value for providing “safety and security” in the Strait of Hormuz. How does this compare with Iran’s proposed “special insurance” fee?
- Trump’s fee is roughly half the Iranian toll
- Trump’s fee is double the Iranian toll
- Trump’s fee is roughly 16 times the Iranian toll
Chart of the Week
Has the US Federal Reserve already hit its inflation target? In short, no. While the new chair, Kevin Warsh, favors trimmed mean measures of US inflation, and did say during his first press conference that he cares more about the 2 in the inflation target than what comes after the decimal (implying a 2.0-2.9% acceptable inflation range), US monetary policy is determined by committee.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Regime Change Can Cause Market Madness
Anatole Kaletsky, Tom Holland
3 Jul 2026
Markets continue to behave as if the world has not fundamentally changed, even as inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and global capital flows enter a new regime. Anatole argues that investors are systematically mispricing four major shifts: the long-term outlook for inflation and bond yields, the global growth cycle, the rotation from AI-led growth to cyclical value and the end of US exceptionalism.
The Iran War And Fallout
Geoeconomic Monitor: Latin America Turns Right
With tensions cooling in the Middle East, global attention is shifting elsewhere. In Latin America’s rambunctious political landscape, electorates continue to vote in right-wing leaders. But the wave may yet break before it reaches Brazil, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite to win his fourth term in October’s election, says Tom Miller. Back in the Strait of Hormuz, Tom Holland explains why Iran’s emerging protection racket sets a dangerous precedent for global trade.
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
On Thursday morning in Asia, front month Brent crude futures were trading at US$72.48/bbl. The price is significant, because on February 27, just hours before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, Brent closed at US$72.48. In other words, with a memorandum of understanding on peace in place and talks scheduled on a longer-term deal, the price of oil has dropped back to where it was on the eve of the conflict. So, is the 2026 energy crisis really over—with relatively little economic harm done?
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Takeaways From The Iran Peace Deal
A number of “Iran peace deals” have been proclaimed over the past two months. However, this latest one does feel more genuine than its predecessors. Assuming that by next weekend, the Strait of Hormuz is once again open to maritime traffic, and that the Gulf states no longer have to worry about drone or missile strikes, what should be our takeaways?
US economy & markets
Will The AI Boom Prove Inflationary Or Deflationary?
Is the AI boom ultimately inflationary or deflationary? While heavy capital spending and competition for scarce resources are currently adding to inflationary pressures, the longer-term productivity gains from AI could eventually reverse that dynamic. With Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh now making AI’s impact on productivity, employment and inflation a central focus of monetary policy, understanding where we are in this transition has become increasingly important for investors, say Will and KX.
The Case For US Bank Stocks
While the S&P 500 index has moved sideways since June 1, the S&P 500 Banks index has gained a robust 13%. This marks a sharp reversal from the first five months of the year. The recent outperformance suggests investors’ concerns are easing. More importantly, the fundamental backdrop for US banks has strengthened considerably.
What’s Driving The Dollar
When the Iran war started, the US dollar strengthened on a flight to safety. This raised the possibility that with peace, the dollar could weaken again on renewed capital outflows. Instead, the US currency has strengthened further, with the DXY index hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. What is behind this rally? The following factors are worth considering.
Chinese Models And The US AI Boom
With the launch of its GLM-5.2 model, Z.ai has mounted the most impressive Chinese challenge yet to US dominance in artificial intelligence. At the same time, Microsoft is considering adding models from China’s DeepSeek to its Copilot offerings. Together, these two developments confirm that Chinese AI is now a front-line competitor. The implications for US and global equities are far reaching.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Dragonomics
Video: Explaining China’s Retail Sales Slump
Ernan Cui
9 Jul 2026
China’s consumers are in a funk: retail sales declined in May for the first time since the pandemic, and larger retailers reported an especially sizable contraction in revenue. In this interview, Ernan unpacks the many factors weighing on China’s households, and discusses the likely trajectory for consumption growth in the months ahead.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 2Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
3 Jul 2026
The second quarter was dominated by an extraordinary surge in risk appetite as semiconductor stocks powered one of the largest increases in global equity market capitalization on record, yet beneath the exuberance, markets underwent significant macro shifts. Louis reviews the quarter's defining developments.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
France And The Limits Of Eurozone Spread Compression
The 2027 electoral calendar for the eurozone is unusually heavy. France holds the first round of its presidential election on April 18, while Spain and Italy must hold general elections by August 22 and December 22, respectively. Together, these three countries account for 59% of the eurozone’s €13.9trn public debt stock. This raises a simple question: can eurozone sovereign spreads compress much further as political risk mounts next year?
Europe’s Rearmament Is Hardening
After a chaotic day in Ankara, Nato leaders appeared to reach a consensus, recommitting to spend 5% of GDP on defense. While attention centered on President Donald Trump’s threats to restart US bombing of Iran, the summit will likely be remembered for cementing Europe’s shift toward rearmament. The question now is whether that buildup happens quickly through purchases of US weapons systems or more gradually as Europe rebuilds its own military-industrial complex.
Stagflation Averted, Upswing In Place
The latest batch of data from the eurozone suggests that the inflationary shock from the US-Iran war is already fading. As it recedes, so does the risk of economic stagflation, leaving the eurozone free to rediscover the gentler, more benign, underlying reflationary trend that had been bedding down before the war’s start.
China, Germany And Eastern Europe’s Factory Hub
European policymakers fear a second “China shock” could devastate the continent’s manufacturing base, with the Visegrád Four seemingly among the most exposed. Yet the evidence points to a more nuanced story for the Eastern Europe group.
Currencies
The Slump In Asian Currencies
A Concentrated Inflationary Boom Or A Bet On The Fed?
Demand And Supply Of Money
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Oil & commodities
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
Video: Oil After Hormuz
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
