Most recent
Gavekal Research
China, Germany And Eastern Europe’s Factory Hub
August Gudmundsson
29 Jun 2026
European policymakers fear a second “China shock” could devastate the continent’s manufacturing base, with the Visegrád Four seemingly among the most exposed. Yet the evidence points to a more nuanced story for the Eastern Europe group.
Gavekal Research
A Concentrated Inflationary Boom Or A Bet On The Fed?
Louis-Vincent Gave
29 Jun 2026
As Anatole highlighted in a recent must-read Daily, and as we discussed in our most recent webinar, most policy settings are now firmly on the “inflationary boom” dial. Yet against this backdrop, most inflationary boom trades have had a fairly miserable quarter. So how can we make sense of these latest market trends? Louis identifies the possible explanations.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Developer Restructuring Loses Momentum
Xiaoxi Zhang
29 Jun 2026
It’s now been a full five years since the defaults of developers triggered China’s property bust, and most of the troubled firms have not yet been able to restructure their debt and move on. Xiaoxi reports that there was more progress in debt restructuring in 2025, but that momentum is now fading as government enthusiasm for helping private-sector developers wanes. Developers’ progress in debt restructuring is not stopping, but it will be slow.
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: Latin America Turns Right
Tom Miller, Tom Holland
26 Jun 2026
With tensions cooling in the Middle East, global attention is shifting elsewhere. In Latin America’s rambunctious political landscape, electorates continue to vote in right-wing leaders. But the wave may yet break before it reaches Brazil, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite to win his fourth term in October’s election, says Tom Miller. Back in the Strait of Hormuz, Tom Holland explains why Iran’s emerging protection racket sets a dangerous precedent for global trade.
Gavekal Dragonomics
What's Wrong With Chinese Consumers?
Ernan Cui
Corporate Profit Growth Returns
Thomas Gatley
Mired In The Labor-Market Malaise
Ernan Cui
The Outlook After The Oil Shock
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Dueling Inflation Dynamics
Andrew Batson
Gavekal Research
Video: Europe's Rocky Road To Rearmament
August Gudmundsson
What’s Driving The Dollar
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand
US Treasuries Are Uninvestible
Charles Gave
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
Tom Holland
The Hardware Sell-Off
Udith Sikand
Gavekal Technologies
Tesla’s Two Way Bet In Physical AI
AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock
Agentic AI’s Growing Pains
Huang Shichan
How The US Can Meet AI Energy Demand
AJ Cortese
US Export Controls Frontier AI Models
Laila Khawaja
The China Shock Comes For Asia
Tom Hancock
Gavekal-IS
From Desacralization To Resacralization Of Power
Didier Darcet
A Baby Shower For Information As An Asset Class
Didier Darcet
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
Didier Darcet
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
Will Denyer
12 Jun 2026
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
Japan's retail sales in nominal terms rose 1.9% MoM in May, versus 2.1% in Apr
Stronger than expected -0.5%; YoY, retail sales rose 5.3% in May, versus 2.8% in Apr
Wage gains and fiscal subsidies boosting consumption; expect BoJ to tighten
Chinese industrial profits rose 21.1% YoY in May, versus 24.7% in Apr
NA
Continued weakness in domestic demand offset by electronics export boom
Italy's ISTAT manufacturing confidence index rose to 88.4 in Jun, from 87.9 in May
Above expected 88.3
Easing energy prices likely to help boost sluggish Italian economy
Sweden's economic tendency indicator rose to 101.7 in Jun, from 99.9 in May
NA
Recovery is firming, led by manufacturing and improving household sentiment
Test Your Knowledge
Why are staff at the European Commission disgruntled?
- Air-conditioning was turned off for most personnel last Friday—but kept running for senior officials
- Allotted lunch breaks have been reduced from two hours to one hour and a half
- Gasoline and parking allowances have been cut for staff taking public transport to work
Chart of the Week
US net equity issuance was positive in 1Q, for the first time since 2001. Robust dividend growth is keeping the net shareholder payout positive for now. But with mega-IPOs, secondary issues, and shares unlocking months after the IPO, this could all weigh on equity multiples.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: The Ceasefire And Mad Markets
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
19 Jun 2026
The arrival of a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to materially reshape the investment environment that has prevailed since February 28. Against a backdrop of artificial intelligence companies seeking to raise massive amounts of capital from investors, Louis and Anatole convene a conversation to explore what comes next.
The Iran War And Fallout
Geoeconomic Monitor: Latin America Turns Right
With tensions cooling in the Middle East, global attention is shifting elsewhere. In Latin America’s rambunctious political landscape, electorates continue to vote in right-wing leaders. But the wave may yet break before it reaches Brazil, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite to win his fourth term in October’s election, says Tom Miller. Back in the Strait of Hormuz, Tom Holland explains why Iran’s emerging protection racket sets a dangerous precedent for global trade.
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
On Thursday morning in Asia, front month Brent crude futures were trading at US$72.48/bbl. The price is significant, because on February 27, just hours before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, Brent closed at US$72.48. In other words, with a memorandum of understanding on peace in place and talks scheduled on a longer-term deal, the price of oil has dropped back to where it was on the eve of the conflict. So, is the 2026 energy crisis really over—with relatively little economic harm done?
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Takeaways From The Iran Peace Deal
A number of “Iran peace deals” have been proclaimed over the past two months. However, this latest one does feel more genuine than its predecessors. Assuming that by next weekend, the Strait of Hormuz is once again open to maritime traffic, and that the Gulf states no longer have to worry about drone or missile strikes, what should be our takeaways?
US economy & markets
What’s Driving The Dollar
When the Iran war started, the US dollar strengthened on a flight to safety. This raised the possibility that with peace, the dollar could weaken again on renewed capital outflows. Instead, the US currency has strengthened further, with the DXY index hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. What is behind this rally? The following factors are worth considering.
Chinese Models And The US AI Boom
With the launch of its GLM-5.2 model, Z.ai has mounted the most impressive Chinese challenge yet to US dominance in artificial intelligence. At the same time, Microsoft is considering adding models from China’s DeepSeek to its Copilot offerings. Together, these two developments confirm that Chinese AI is now a front-line competitor. The implications for US and global equities are far reaching.
Has The Fed Already Hit Its Inflation Target?
Going into Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, investors were looking to see how he might shake things up on three fronts: the inflation target, the balance sheet and communication. The only changes made at Warsh’s first meeting were to communication, but further changes are in store.
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Europe's Rocky Road To Rearmament
August Gudmundsson
26 Jun 2026
After a spectacular run-up following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, European defense stocks have struggled in 2026. Since January, the broad sector index is down around -10%, with some leading names down much more, as investors have questioned whether European countries will be able to meet their defense spending targets. In this interview, August Gudmundsson examines which countries’ promises are credible and which are not, and looks at how they plan to spend the funds available.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
China, Germany And Eastern Europe’s Factory Hub
European policymakers fear a second “China shock” could devastate the continent’s manufacturing base, with the Visegrád Four seemingly among the most exposed. Yet the evidence points to a more nuanced story for the Eastern Europe group.
Britain’s New Leader Could Bring New Hope
The removal of Sir Keir Starmer has been almost inevitable since early May. But Starmer’s expulsion from Downing Street became a near certainty last Friday, following the landslide victory of his rival Andy Burnham in a special election. With reliable media reporters predicting that Starmer will announce his resignation this week, it makes sense for investors in UK assets to ask three immediate questions.
Europe’s China Shock In Perspective
Europe is moving closer to tougher trade measures against China as concerns over its growing export dominance intensify. Yet the "second China shock" narrative overstates the damage: the EU still runs a sizeable trade surplus with the rest of the world. And China's rise is indeed creating challenges for European industry, but it is also supporting investment and Europe's broader economic rebalancing.
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Currencies
A Concentrated Inflationary Boom Or A Bet On The Fed?
Demand And Supply Of Money
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
Oil & commodities
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
Video: Oil After Hormuz
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
