Most recent
Gavekal Research
Food For The ECB Hawks
August Gudmundsson
1 May 2026
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but said that risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Iran war had “intensified”. As energy prices continue to grind higher, the policy bias is being tilted toward higher rates. The near-term inflationary impulse stems almost entirely from energy effects, argues August.
Gavekal Research
Video: War, Swap Lines And Debt
Will Denyer
30 Apr 2026
The United Arab Emirates has asked the United States for a US dollar swap line. The US Treasury Secretary has indicated openness and could approve the request. However, there are strong reasons for the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to steer countries towards the newer emergency liquidity facility, the foreign repo facility established in 2020.
Gavekal Dragonomics
False Hope For Infrastructure Investment
Wei He
30 Apr 2026
China’s infrastructure investment growth rebounded substantially in Q1, making it one of the rare bright spots in domestic demand. Wei argues that the improvement was probably real, and not just a statistical phenomenon. But there are reasons to think the acceleration will not last, and that infrastructure investment will not re-emerge as a major support for growth in 2026.
Gavekal-IS
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part II)
Didier Darcet
30 Apr 2026
In Didier’s last note, he challenged the notion that markets are generally well-behaved. The famous Bell Curve is thick at the base and scarred by violent, recurring shocks. This dynamic reflects randomness, but also memory. And not of direction, but of shock intensity. This week, he tackles a second flaw: the Bell Curve does not just stretch, it tilts. This, he argues, represents another crack in the foundations of statistical finance.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Shanghai’s Stealth Mortgage-Rate Cut
Xiaoxi Zhang
Why Corporate Margins Will Take A Hit
Thomas Gatley
The Promise Of A Services Opening
Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor
The Demand Divergence Deepens
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Building A Tax Panopticon
Ernan Cui
Gavekal Research
The Fed’s New Chair And Shadow Chair
Will Denyer
Addressing Jobless Growth
Tan Kai Xian
Beijing Conference: April 2026
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis-Vincent Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Will Denyer, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Xiaoxi Zhang, Laila Khawaja
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
Charles Gave
Japan’s Policy Dilemma
Udith Sikand
Gavekal Technologies
China Blocks Meta-Manus Deal
Laila Khawaja
Looking For Battery Life After LFP
Damien Ma, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
On The Ground At China’s Tech Conferences (Part II)
Laila Khawaja
China’s Supply-Chain Security Strategy
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock, Huang Shichan, AJ Cortese
Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese
Gavekal-IS
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part I)
Didier Darcet
The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet
The Market’s Take On Global Trade
Didier Darcet
What To Do? Stay Put
Didier Darcet
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Rolling Over The Iran Ceasefire
Louis-Vincent Gave
23 Apr 2026
The next round of the Islamabad peace talks is up in the air, partly because it is not obvious who really holds the levers of power in Iran. The plan was that, should Iran’s political leaders be killed, the 31 regional commanders would become independent actors whose task was simply to take the fight to the enemy. Louis argues this leaves investors with three main possible scenarios.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US GDP rose 2% QoQ annualized in 1Q26, versus 0.5% in 4Q25
Below expected 2.3%
Robust growth figure underpinned by strong AI-related capex spending
Eurozone GDP rose 0.1% QoQ in 1Q26, versus 0.2% in 4Q25
Below expected 0.2%; YoY, GDP rose 0.8% in 1Q26, versus 1.2% in 4Q25
Growth likely to slow further amid energy price spike and tighter financial conditions
Bank of England left benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%
As expected
BoE signaling hawkish bias by stating rate hikes are possible if energy shock persists
South Korea trade surplus narrowed to US$23.8bn in Apr, from US$26.2bn in Mar
Wider than exp US$23.3bn; exports (48% YoY) rose faster than imports (16.7% YoY)
Semiconductor export demand outweighing impact of energy shock, for now
Test Your Knowledge
Demand for artificial-intelligence hardware pushed the Taiwanese economy to 13.69% growth in 1Q26. When did the economy last grow so quickly?
- 2004
- 1996
- 1987
- 1979
Chart of the Week
The Iran war has delivered more an oil price shock than a gas and electricity price shock, so far. For European manufacturing, that distinction matters. Crude oil price surges pass through to production costs almost immediately, whereas gas and electricity prices are more regulated and governed by longer-term contracts.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Tom Holland, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand
26 Mar 2026
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
The Iran War And Fallout
Food For The ECB Hawks
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but said that risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Iran war had “intensified”. As energy prices continue to grind higher, the policy bias is being tilted toward higher rates. The near-term inflationary impulse stems almost entirely from energy effects, argues August.
What Iran Changes For Europe
The impact of the Iran war on Europe is difficult to pin down, given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty. A useful way to frame the outlook, argues Cedric, is by time horizon. This lens offers clarity at both ends of the horizon, while uncertainty is concentrated in the medium term.
Rolling Over The Iran Ceasefire
The next round of the Islamabad peace talks is up in the air, partly because it is not obvious who really holds the levers of power in Iran. The plan was that, should Iran’s political leaders be killed, the 31 regional commanders would become independent actors whose task was simply to take the fight to the enemy. Louis argues this leaves investors with three main possible scenarios.
What Is The Market Thinking?
The S&P 500 index has now risen for 12 consecutive days. The 11% gain recorded since its recent March 30 low is in the 99th percentile for 12-day returns. In short, it has been quite a rally. Perhaps most impressive is that the S&P 500 is now back above its February 27 level, when the Iran war started. In this piece, Louis asks if the market is getting too complacent.
US economy & markets
The Fed’s New Chair And Shadow Chair
The key outcome of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting was not any change to policy, it was Jerome Powell’s decision to remain on the central bank’s board of governors after his term as chair ends on May 15. This raises the prospect that Powell could serve, if need be, as a “shadow chair”. It also reduces the tail risks of the Fed losing its monetary policy independence and shifting its goals toward persistently higher inflation.
Addressing Jobless Growth
The US economy is entering a phase of jobless growth, where GDP expands but employment fails to keep pace—and in some cases contracts. Labor market strength has long been a reliable signal of broader US economic health, which makes this divergence notable. Investors will need to understand what is driving the shift and how it is likely to shape the policy response.
Copper, Oil And Gold
From late 2022 until January 2026, copper prices rallied while oil trended lower as artificial intelligence and electrification drove markets. Since January, those narratives have taken a back seat to the Iran war. Oil prices have spiked, copper sold off modestly, and the copper-to-oil-price ratio moved back to more normal levels. For investors, a key question is whether to favor copper, oil or both.
What Could Go Wrong With US Credit?
The triple whammy of the Iran war, the private credit exodus and concerns about artificial intelligence disruption is being absorbed with steely calm by the US corporate credit market. This should not come as a huge surprise as US firms, in general, have healthy balance sheets. Yet, despite this otherwise reassuring backdrop, the technology sector stands out as a weak spot.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: War, Swap Lines And Debt
Will Denyer
30 Apr 2026
The United Arab Emirates has asked the United States for a US dollar swap line. The US Treasury Secretary has indicated openness and could approve the request. However, there are strong reasons for the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to steer countries towards the newer emergency liquidity facility, the foreign repo facility established in 2020.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Food For The ECB Hawks
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but said that risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Iran war had “intensified”. As energy prices continue to grind higher, the policy bias is being tilted toward higher rates. The near-term inflationary impulse stems almost entirely from energy effects, argues August.
What Iran Changes For Europe
The impact of the Iran war on Europe is difficult to pin down, given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty. A useful way to frame the outlook, argues Cedric, is by time horizon. This lens offers clarity at both ends of the horizon, while uncertainty is concentrated in the medium term.
Opioid Pushers And Central Bankers
Consensus opinion is usually wrong among the policymakers and financiers who gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington every six months. But to every rule there is an exception. Mid-April’s IMF meetings produced three near-unanimous views. One is almost
mathematically certain and a second extremely likely, leaving only a third consensus for investors to challenge and trade against.
Europe’s Uneven Energy Shock
The plight of European industry over the past four years has reinforced the centrality of energy to modern economies. The tightening of energy supplies after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine placed Europe’s industrial complex under acute strain, just as Chinese firms were becoming formidable. With energy prices again high due to the Iran war, August and Cedric assess Europe’s vulnerabilities across its industrial sectors.
Currencies
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
Oil & commodities
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
The Iran War Uncertainties
