Most recent
Gavekal Research
The PBoC In The Driver’s Seat
Charles Gave
20 Apr 2026
Recent events in Iran have created massive problems for a number of oil-importing Asian nations. Charles argues that the PBoC is now in an incredibly favorable position to support India during this period of financial stress.
Gavekal Research
What Is The Market Thinking?
Louis-Vincent Gave
17 Apr 2026
The S&P 500 index has now risen for 12 consecutive days. The 11% gain recorded since its recent March 30 low is in the 99th percentile for 12-day returns. In short, it has been quite a rally. Perhaps most impressive is that the S&P 500 is now back above its February 27 level, when the Iran war started. In this piece, Louis asks if the market is getting too complacent.
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: China And The War
Tom Miller, August Gudmundsson, Yanmei Xie
17 Apr 2026
The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon raises the chance of fresh talks between the United States and Iran. In this China-themed issue, Tom Miller asks whether Beijing will play its part in ending the war. China’s electric-vehicle makers would love to open factories in the US, says Yanmei Xie, but the regulatory and political obstacles are probably too great. Meanwhile, Péter Magyar’s victory over Viktor Orbán in Hungary will make doing business in Europe tougher for Chinese electric vehicle makers, argues August Gudmundsson.
Gavekal Research
Video: Powering Up During The War
Tan Kai Xian
17 Apr 2026
The effects of the Iran war are being felt by national power systems globally, but the United States is relatively insulated due to its abundant domestic sources of hydrocarbons. There are, however, winners and losers from this energy shock within the US power system, says Kai Xian. In this video interview he outlines who is up and who is down.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Demand Divergence Deepens
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Building A Tax Panopticon
Ernan Cui
Vindication For The Stockpilers
Christopher Beddor
The Prospects For A Trend Change In Inflation
Andrew Batson, Wei He
Breaking The LGFV Bonds
Xiaoxi Zhang
Gavekal Research
Copper, Oil And Gold
Tan Kai Xian, Will Denyer
Europe’s Uneven Energy Shock
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl
Back-To-Back Meetings
Louis-Vincent Gave
What Could Go Wrong With US Credit?
Tan Kai Xian
Why The Iran War Matters
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
China Strengthens Its Retaliation Toolkit
Laila Khawaja
Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese
On The Ground At China’s Tech Conferences (Part I)
Laila Khawaja
In Pharma, The US And China Need Each Other
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan
Alibaba Has A New AI Chip
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part I)
Didier Darcet
The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet
The Market’s Take On Global Trade
Didier Darcet
What To Do? Stay Put
Didier Darcet
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
The EU After Orbán?
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl
9 Apr 2026
On Sunday, Hungarian voters go to the polls in what may well turn be Europe’s most important election of 2026. Hungary’s recent economic underperformance means that for the first time in 16 years, prime minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party faces a credible challenger in the shape of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. Even with a commanding lead in some of the polls, victory is unlikely to be smooth for Magyar. If the challenger does win, however, he will remove a major thorn in the side of Brussels policymaking, with far-reaching consequences for the European Union both at home and abroad.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
China left 1y and 5y loan prime rate unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively
As expected
Between weak domestic demand and energy shock, expect policy to remain on hold
Eurozone current account surplus narrowed to €24.9bn in Feb, versus €40.4bn in Jan
NA; 12m rolling sum at surplus of 2% of GDP
CA surplus likely to narrow ahead amid higher imports driven by energy shock
UK Rightmove house price index rose 0.8% MoM in Apr, the same pace as in Mar
NA; YoY, house price index rose 1.7% in Apr, versus 1.1% in Mar
Elevated mortgage rates and elevated supply to keep home price increase subdued
Malaysia GDP rose 5.3% YoY in 1Q26, versus 6.3% in 4Q25
Below expected 5.5%
Net energy export status provides Malaysia with a buffer, not immunity, to energy shock
Test Your Knowledge
Before 2020, about half of engineering graduates of Tsinghua University applied for PhDs in the US. What is that figure now?
- 3%
- 20%
- 45%
- 61%
Chart of the Week
The Iran war has delivered more an oil price shock than a gas and electricity price shock, so far. For European manufacturing, that distinction matters. Crude oil price surges pass through to production costs almost immediately, whereas gas and electricity prices are more regulated and governed by longer-term contracts.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Tom Holland, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand
26 Mar 2026
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
The Iran War And Fallout
What Is The Market Thinking?
The S&P 500 index has now risen for 12 consecutive days. The 11% gain recorded since its recent March 30 low is in the 99th percentile for 12-day returns. In short, it has been quite a rally. Perhaps most impressive is that the S&P 500 is now back above its February 27 level, when the Iran war started. In this piece, Louis asks if the market is getting too complacent.
Video: Powering Up During The War
The effects of the Iran war are being felt by national power systems globally, but the United States is relatively insulated due to its abundant domestic sources of hydrocarbons. There are, however, winners and losers from this energy shock within the US power system, says Kai Xian. In this video interview he outlines who is up and who is down.
Europe’s Uneven Energy Shock
The plight of European industry over the past four years has reinforced the centrality of energy to modern economies. The tightening of energy supplies after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine placed Europe’s industrial complex under acute strain, just as Chinese firms were becoming formidable. With energy prices again high due to the Iran war, August and Cedric assess Europe’s vulnerabilities across its industrial sectors.
Why The Iran War Matters
Investors are living in a period when geopolitics clearly loom large in dictating the performance of the major asset classes. In this piece, Louis seeks to break down this impact with reference to (i) energy prices, (ii) trade flows and supply chains, (iii) industrial systems, and (iv) investment flows. He concludes the report with updated investment recommendations based on the latest developments in the Middle East.
US economy & markets
Copper, Oil And Gold
From late 2022 until January 2026, copper prices rallied while oil trended lower as artificial intelligence and electrification drove markets. Since January, those narratives have taken a back seat to the Iran war. Oil prices have spiked, copper sold off modestly, and the copper-to-oil-price ratio moved back to more normal levels. For investors, a key question is whether to favor copper, oil or both.
What Could Go Wrong With US Credit?
The triple whammy of the Iran war, the private credit exodus and concerns about artificial intelligence disruption is being absorbed with steely calm by the US corporate credit market. This should not come as a huge surprise as US firms, in general, have healthy balance sheets. Yet, despite this otherwise reassuring backdrop, the technology sector stands out as a weak spot.
What Anchors Inflation Expectations?
It is now more than five weeks since Donald Trump said the war against Iran would last “four to five weeks,” and there is no end to the conflict in sight. The more the bombing goes on, and the longer the disruption to energy shipping lasts, the greater the risk of an inflationary bust becomes. Short and medium-term bond market inflation expectations have risen, but longer-term expectations have remained serenely untroubled. What explains the divergence?
Valuing Value
In recent years, value stocks—including energy, materials and industrials—have traded at a generous discount to growth stocks, especially technology-sector growth stocks. But since November 2025, much of that excess valuation discount has been eliminated. So, does it still make sense for investors to hold US value?
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Powering Up During The War
Tan Kai Xian
17 Apr 2026
The effects of the Iran war are being felt by national power systems globally, but the United States is relatively insulated due to its abundant domestic sources of hydrocarbons. There are, however, winners and losers from this energy shock within the US power system, says Kai Xian. In this video interview he outlines who is up and who is down.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Europe’s Uneven Energy Shock
The plight of European industry over the past four years has reinforced the centrality of energy to modern economies. The tightening of energy supplies after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine placed Europe’s industrial complex under acute strain, just as Chinese firms were becoming formidable. With energy prices again high due to the Iran war, August and Cedric assess Europe’s vulnerabilities across its industrial sectors.
Betting Against The Chinese Steamroller
The threat posed by the “Chinese steamroller” to industrial sectors around the world is a concern everywhere, but perhaps nowhere more so than Europe—and higher energy costs are now exacerbating those concerns. But Thomas and Cedric argue that betting on the Chinese steamroller has been the wrong call in recent years: European companies have delivered far more earnings to investors, and that appears likely to continue.
The EU After Orbán?
On Sunday, Hungarian voters go to the polls in what may well turn be Europe’s most important election of 2026. Hungary’s recent economic underperformance means that for the first time in 16 years, prime minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party faces a credible challenger in the shape of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. Even with a commanding lead in some of the polls, victory is unlikely to be smooth for Magyar. If the challenger does win, however, he will remove a major thorn in the side of Brussels policymaking, with far-reaching consequences for the European Union both at home and abroad.
The Eurozone Duration Question
Since the bond market sell-off of 2022, investors with long time horizons benefited from keeping eurozone government bond duration short. But since the start of the Iran war, long-dated eurozone government bond yields have climbed by nearly 50bp. So, is now the time to extend duration?
Currencies
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
A New Reflationary Force?
Oil & commodities
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
The Iran War Uncertainties
