Most recent
Gavekal Research
Politics In Electricity
Tan Kai Xian
16 Jan 2026
US politics is sharpening its focus on electricity prices. Power costs in the consumer price index far outpaced the headline rate, making the issue unavoidable ahead of November’s midterm elections. Both Republicans and Democrats are increasingly converging on a similar framing, with artificial intelligence data centers cast as a villainous driver of rising power costs. KX examines what this means for investors.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Payoff From Cheap AI
Tilly Zhang
16 Jan 2026
A year after China’s “DeepSeek moment,” the company itself has faded somewhat from public attention. But it catalyzed an important turning point in China’s AI development: domestic developers of large language models have emphasized a strategy of producing cheap but good open-source models that require relatively less capital investment. Tilly argues that this approach has given China a strong position in the global AI competition.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Spheres Of Interest
Louis-Vincent Gave, Tom Miller, Tom Holland
16 Jan 2026
The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.
Gavekal Research
Video: Divining AI Effects In The Jobs Market
Tan Kai Xian
15 Jan 2026
Human resources stocks are a niche corner of the US equity market that most investors will rarely focus on. However, Kai Xian thinks they are offering up useful signaling information about a range of macro factors which are currently causing big changes to the US labor market.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Hidden-Debt Cleanup Expands
Xiaoxi Zhang
Payback Time For Chinese Equities
Thomas Gatley
The Reset For The Renminbi
Wei He
Consumer Support Loses Its Punch
Ernan Cui
Course Corrections Into 2026
Andrew Batson
Gavekal Research
Hedging Tail Risks In The Unfolding Inflationary Boom
Louis-Vincent Gave
Don’t Bet On A Forever Weak Yen
Udith Sikand
The Renminbi’s Importance
Louis-Vincent Gave
The Next Stage Of The Eurozone Cycle
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson
Why Is Trump Still Gunning For Powell?
Will Denyer
Gavekal Technologies
Manus AI’s Regulatory Odyssey
Laila Khawaja
China’s Bet On The Electrotech Stack
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Thomas Gatley
What To Watch In 2026
Laila Khawaja
Open Door And Chip Self-Sufficiency
Laila Khawaja
China’s Tech Power—And Its Limits
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock, Damien Ma
Gavekal-IS
The Manager’s Unspoken Truth
Didier Darcet
Gold And War
Didier Darcet
The Catastrophe
Didier Darcet
AI Bashing
Didier Darcet
Gold Miners
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
8 Jan 2026
Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US NY Fed Empire mfg index rose to 7.7 in Jan, up from -3.7 in Dec
Above expected 1
Most sub-components, with the exception of labor, point to encouraging outlook ahead
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% MoM in Nov, the same pace as in Oct
Above expected 0.5%; YoY, industrial production rose 2.5% in Nov, up from 1.7% in Oct
Easing external drag and improving domestic demand to drive rebound ahead
China aggregate financing YTD rose to RMB35.6trn in Dec, vs RMB33.4trn in Nov
Above expected RMB35.3trn
Near-term outlook for credit growth remains lackluster; more policy easing needed
India trade deficit widened to US$25bn in Dec, from US$24.5bn in Nov
As expected; imports (8.8% YoY) rose faster than exports (1.9% YoY)
Export outlook weighed down by continued uncertainty over trade deal with US
Test Your Knowledge
Why are four presidential dogs at the center of a political crisis in Malawi?
- The dogs—symbols of probity—turned their noses up at the at the new president’s inauguration, prompting protests calling for his resignation
- The dogs have disappeared from the palace, and the president is threatening to raid his predecessor’s home to retrieve them
- The president claims the dogs have shredded records relating to a corruption probe into his office
Chart of the Week
Emerging market asset prices had a stellar year in 2025. The MSCI EM equity index rose 32% in US dollar terms. This was the first year since 2017 that the EM benchmark outperformed US equities. But the recent track record suggests that investors should be cautious about expecting another year of EM outperformance in 2026; not since 2010 have EMs notched up two consecutive years in which they have beaten US stocks. Nevertheless, a look back further to the early and mid-2000s shows that it is possible for EM equities to outshine for a sustained period. And the current backdrop of growth, liquidity and valuations suggest EMs could be primed to repeat their outperformance in 2026.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Spheres Of Interest
Louis-Vincent Gave, Tom Miller, Tom Holland
16 Jan 2026
The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.
Tariff Troubles
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Understanding The New Trade Regime
In today’s Monitor, we continue our analysis of what Donald Trump’s new trade regime means for the world economy, explain how Indian prime minister Narendra Modi blundered and wound up facing a 50% tariff, and argue that none of the conditions for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war are in place.
Where Tariffs Leave US Industry
Late Thursday the US president signed two executive orders cementing—for now—the new tariff rates announced piecemeal over recent days in a series of social media posts and bilateral deals. The higher tariffs on imported inputs are but one part of a broader story that is shifting the narrative for US manufacturing. In this Daily, Kai Xian examines the other factors.
Japan’s Flaky Trade Deal
The US-Japan trade deal announced late Tuesday in Washington triggered a powerful rally in Japanese automaker stocks. But the anomalies and distortions implied by the limited details of the deal so far available mean the provisions of this “framework agreement” are unlikely to survive in their current form, warns Udith Sikand.
US economy & markets
Politics In Electricity
US politics is sharpening its focus on electricity prices. Power costs in the consumer price index far outpaced the headline rate, making the issue unavoidable ahead of November’s midterm elections. Both Republicans and Democrats are increasingly converging on a similar framing, with artificial intelligence data centers cast as a villainous driver of rising power costs. KX examines what this means for investors.
Why Is Trump Still Gunning For Powell?
On Friday, the US Department of Justice issued subpoenas threatening Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell with criminal charges. With Powell’s term as chair up in just four months, why is Donald Trump picking a fight now when Powell is on the way out anyway? Will explores the possible explanations and assesses their market implications.
An Inflationary Boom In 2026?
Heading into the new year, there are five main forces that will be at work in 2026 which are likely to support inflationary boom conditions in the US. There are also a number of potential threats to this relatively benign picture. Will and Kai Xian break them down and explain the implications for US assets.
A Weak And Bullish US Jobs Report
On the face of things, Tuesday’s US labor market data release is concerning. The headline unemployment rate for November ticked up for the fourth time in five months to 4.6%. Part of the story is that tighter immigration policies are weighing on labor force growth, and in turn the potential for job growth. And yet, a closer look at the labor market suggests this situation may end up being bullish for US equities.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui
24 Nov 2025
China’s household consumption growth has weakened further in 2025, primarily driven by the weak labor market and slowing household income growth. Policymakers have announced several new measures to boost spending, but there are also reasons to think that the slowdown might continue. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers of household consumption, and explores what it means for consumer spending in the months to come.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Divining AI Effects In The Jobs Market
Tan Kai Xian
15 Jan 2026
Human resources stocks are a niche corner of the US equity market that most investors will rarely focus on. However, Kai Xian thinks they are offering up useful signaling information about a range of macro factors which are currently causing big changes to the US labor market.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
8 Jan 2026
Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
The Next Stage Of The Eurozone Cycle
The eurozone economy ended 2025 in an apparent not-too-hot, not-too-cold equilibrium. At first glance, it seems like Europe is stuck in first gear, but looking at 2026, it is more likely that the eurozone economy shifts up a gear into a mild inflationary boom, as strengthening domestic demand offsets the drag from external shocks.
Four Market Mispricings
Last week, Louis considered four contrarian trades for 2026 but expressed some skepticism about all of them. In this piece, Anatole suggests a variant on this concept, but offers a high conviction view: four market mispricings which reflect ideas about the world economy that are already shared by many investors but not yet reflected in market prices, even though market trends have already started moving in a direction consistent with these ideas.
Rubik’s ECB
By luck or design, the ECB has pulled off a near-perfect landing for inflation. After surging in 2021-24, eurozone inflation has settled back almost bang in line with the ECB’s 2% target. Market and survey-based measures of future inflation are also within similarly tight margins of the ECB’s target. So, what could upset this equilibrium?
Germany’s Energy-Intensive Industries Power On
Germany’s energy-intensive industries are finally seeing the pressures that drove their post-2022 slump begin to ease. After three years of elevated electricity costs and weak eurozone demand, both constraints are starting to lift, say August and Cedric. Power prices remain high, but policy relief is on the horizon, and the regional business cycle is turning up after an extended downturn.
Currencies
Don’t Bet On A Forever Weak Yen
How To Think About Renminbi Appreciation
Rubik’s ECB
Resolving The Renminbi Anomaly
Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Takaichi, China And The Yen
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Axis Of Energy
Convictions And Concerns
The Petro-Currency That Wasn’t
Geoeconomic Monitor: Digital Currencies And Financial Power
