Most recent
Gavekal Research
A (Worried) Update On The Four Quadrants
Charles Gave
19 Jun 2026
Charles is concerned that the Four Quadrants framework is oscillating between an inflationary bust and an inflationary boom. Yet whichever quadrant ultimately prevails, long-term interest rates appear headed higher. That creates a dilemma for heavily indebted countries such as the US, the UK and France: either rates rise and fiscal strains intensify, or deficits are monetized and inflation accelerates.
Gavekal Research
A Tough Decade For Real Estate Stocks
Louis-Vincent Gave
19 Jun 2026
It has been a tough decade for real estate stocks, with the global MSCI real estate index underperforming the MSCI World index by more than 50% as interest rates climbed. Worse still, argues Louis, at this stage, rising interest rates may not even be the sector’s single biggest hurdle.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: The Ceasefire And Mad Markets
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
19 Jun 2026
The arrival of a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to materially reshape the investment environment that has prevailed since February 28. Against a backdrop of artificial intelligence companies seeking to raise massive amounts of capital from investors, Louis and Anatole convene a conversation to explore what comes next.
Gavekal Research
Video: Warsh's Task Forces
Will Denyer
18 Jun 2026
Kevin Warsh has announced five task forces within the Federal Reserve to explore five key factors influencing the way it makes monetary policy. In this video interview, Will discusses whether this amounts to a bureaucratic exercise or if Warsh is preparing the ground for radical change at the US central bank.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Mired In The Labor-Market Malaise
Ernan Cui
The Outlook After The Oil Shock
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Dueling Inflation Dynamics
Andrew Batson
A Warning To Hong Kong’s Gray Market
Xiaoxi Zhang, Wei He
The Regulatory Ceasefire Is Over
Christopher Beddor, Tilly Zhang
Gavekal Research
Europe’s China Shock In Perspective
Cedric Gemehl
Has The Fed Already Hit Its Inflation Target?
Will Denyer
Japan’s Mixed Messaging
Udith Sikand
Why Is Hong Kong Struggling?
Louis-Vincent Gave
Demand And Supply Of Money
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
US Export Controls Frontier AI Models
Laila Khawaja
The China Shock Comes For Asia
Tom Hancock
Assessing The MATCH Act
Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
China’s Nuclear Spring
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese
China Refines Outbound Investment Rules
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
A Baby Shower For Information As An Asset Class
Didier Darcet
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
Didier Darcet
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
Didier Darcet
Economic Regime Shift
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
Will Denyer
12 Jun 2026
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
Japan CPI rose 1.5% YoY in May, versus 1.4% in Apr
As expected; CPI ex-fresh food & energy rose 1.8% YoY in May, versus 1.9% in Apr
Fiscal subsidies distorting price signal; upside risks to inflation to keep BoJ on tightening path
Bank of England left benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%
As expected; 7-2 split vote
Hawkish hold; softening labor market limits case for broader tightening cycle
Switzerland left benchmark rate unchanged at 0%
As expected
SNB likely to remain on prolonged pause amid benign growth and inflation outlook
Indonesia hiked benchmark rate by 25bp to 5.75%
As expected
Downside risks to IDR to keep BI on tightening path for now, even as inflation risks recede
Test Your Knowledge
Who, following the signature of an armistice that included massive reparations in Versailles, said “oil down, stocks up”?
- Jules Favre, French foreign minister, signing the 1871 Armistice of Versailles following the French defeat at Sedan and cementing the loss of Alsace and Lorraine to the new German empire
- Hermann Muller, German foreign minister in 1919, signing the return of Alsace and Lorraine to France, along with the de-militarization of the Ruhr and crippling reparations
- Donald Trump, current US president, following the US’s nearly four-month war against Iran
Chart of the Week
US net equity issuance was positive in 1Q, for the first time since 2001. Robust dividend growth is keeping the net shareholder payout positive for now. But with mega-IPOs, secondary issues, and shares unlocking months after the IPO, this could all weigh on equity multiples.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: The Ceasefire And Mad Markets
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
19 Jun 2026
The arrival of a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to materially reshape the investment environment that has prevailed since February 28. Against a backdrop of artificial intelligence companies seeking to raise massive amounts of capital from investors, Louis and Anatole convene a conversation to explore what comes next.
The Iran War And Fallout
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Takeaways From The Iran Peace Deal
A number of “Iran peace deals” have been proclaimed over the past two months. However, this latest one does feel more genuine than its predecessors. Assuming that by next weekend, the Strait of Hormuz is once again open to maritime traffic, and that the Gulf states no longer have to worry about drone or missile strikes, what should be our takeaways?
Video: Oil After Hormuz
Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
Oil Reserves Are Missing In Action
China’s stockpiling of oil looked prescient at the outbreak of the Iran war. But Thomas argues that the government does not appear to have dug into those reserves, even amid a sharp falloff in oil imports. The damage will end up being a short-term blip if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon—but if the closure drags on, policymakers could get more aggressive in using reserves to cushion the dropoff in economic activity.
US economy & markets
Has The Fed Already Hit Its Inflation Target?
Going into Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, investors were looking to see how he might shake things up on three fronts: the inflation target, the balance sheet and communication. The only changes made at Warsh’s first meeting were to communication, but further changes are in store.
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
How Far Can Wealth Effects Go?
The state of the US job market and household wealth effects are the main drivers of US consumption. Since January 2024, the latter has done the heavy lifting, powered by the US equity rally. That said, there are three near-term risks to this trend, argues Kai Xian.
The Macro Outlook For US Earnings
It has been a stellar reporting season for US companies. Given that strong earnings growth has been the principal driver of stock market gains so far in 2026, it is natural to ask whether US corporate profit growth will prove sustainable. At a macro level, the answer depends on two main questions. Will the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence persist? And will the US government budget deficit continue to grow?
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Warsh's Task Forces
Will Denyer
18 Jun 2026
Kevin Warsh has announced five task forces within the Federal Reserve to explore five key factors influencing the way it makes monetary policy. In this video interview, Will discusses whether this amounts to a bureaucratic exercise or if Warsh is preparing the ground for radical change at the US central bank.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Europe’s China Shock In Perspective
Europe is moving closer to tougher trade measures against China as concerns over its growing export dominance intensify. Yet the "second China shock" narrative overstates the damage: the EU still runs a sizeable trade surplus with the rest of the world. And China's rise is indeed creating challenges for European industry, but it is also supporting investment and Europe's broader economic rebalancing.
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Switzerland’s 10 Million Question
From time to time, Switzerland’s political system produces votes on policy proposals that send shivers down the spines of its business and financial community. Another such episode will conclude this Sunday June 14 when Swiss voters go to the polls to adopt or reject a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10mn people. Cedric argues that if implemented, the cap could seriously threaten its macroeconomic success and harm its relationship with the EU.
An Insurance Rate Hike In Frankfurt
The European Central Bank will kick off a round of major developed market central bank meetings when it convenes on Thursday, ahead of the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England, all of which meet next week. Investors will be looking for guidance on how policymakers intend to respond to a negative supply shock in energy markets which is
pushing inflation up and economic growth down.
Currencies
Demand And Supply Of Money
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
Oil & commodities
Video: Oil After Hormuz
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
