Most recent
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Iran Outcome
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Yanmei Xie
20 Feb 2026
Tom Holland looks at the momentum that is building for an attack on Iran, considers what the strategic objectives of a new campaign would be, and examines the probable fallout for the global energy markets. Tom Miller turns his lens on the US administration’s efforts to create a trade bloc for critical minerals and assesses their chances of success. Yanmei Xie explores how German industry is conflicted over trade and investment relations with China.
Gavekal Research
Video: Material Realities In China’s Rebalancing
Thomas Gatley
20 Feb 2026
In five years, China has greatly reduced its reliance on property and supporting industries as a driver of economic activity. While the building binge continues to cast a pall over the wider economy, the Chinese stock market has the “old economy” property sector in the rear-view mirror and is fully pricing in “new economy” industries built around advanced manufacturing and the energy transition.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Escaping The Growth Target’s Dilemma
Andrew Batson
20 Feb 2026
As China’s government prepares to lay out its official economic targets for 2026 next month, the main remaining uncertainty is about the target for real GDP growth. Some argue it will be kept unchanged at 5%, others that it will be lowered to a range of 4.5-5%. In this piece, Andrew explains why neither choice is really a good one, and why the policy framework centered around real GDP needs to adjust.
Gavekal Research
Rate Cuts And Affordability
Tan Kai Xian
20 Feb 2026
President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh seem convinced that interest rate cuts will ease US affordability. The phrase is politically resonant but economically ambiguous. Kai Xian sonsiders how rate cuts have affected US households on three fronts.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Tech Demands Efficiency Over Equality
Tilly Zhang
How China Responds To The Gold Price
Xiaoxi Zhang
The Downtrend In Auto Demand
Ernan Cui
Consequences Of The Land-Sales Slide
Xiaoxi Zhang
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Gavekal Research
Poland’s Advantages
August Gudmundsson
The Changing Of Lagarde
Cedric Gemehl
US Exceptionalism Versus Chinese Uninvestibility (Part III)
Louis-Vincent Gave
Don’t Watch Earnings, Watch Gross Operating Surplus
Charles Gave
Is Clean Energy A Better Hedge Than Oil?
Anatole Kaletsky
Gavekal Technologies
US (Briefly) Blacklists Chinese Firms
Laila Khawaja
Engineering An AI Nation
Laila Khawaja
Beijing’s ‘New Energy System’
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan
The US-China Space Race Intensifies
Laila Khawaja
China’s Vision For AI-Powered Manufacturing
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
Didier Darcet
Time To Take Profits On Metals?
Didier Darcet
The Big Long 2.0
Didier Darcet
Measuring Imitation
Didier Darcet
The Manager’s Unspoken Truth
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: Who’s The Real Winner?
Tom Holland, Tom Miller
6 Feb 2026
Donald Trump says India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil and funding Vladimir Putin’s war machine. And in Panama the annulment of CK Hutchison’s ports contract means Trump can finally claim to have “taken back” the canal. The reality in both is less black-and-white.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US trade deficit widened to US$70.3bn in Dec, from US$53.0bn in Nov
Wider than US$55.5bn expected
US producers remains uncompetitive as the US dollar is still overvalued
Eurozone consumer confidence was -12.2 in Feb, up from -12.4 in Jan
Below -11.8 expected
A cyclical pick-up and improving labor market to support consumption in 2026
UK CBI industral trends orders rose to -28 in Feb, up from -30 in Jan
As expected
Cost and demand headwinds persist although moderating at the margin
Japan S&P Global composite PMI rose 53.8 in Feb, from 53.1 in Jan
N/A
The yen should be able to find support from the looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies
Test Your Knowledge
The International Energy Agency forecasts electricity demand to jump almost 1,000 TWh— about the equivalent of Japan’s annual demand—every year to 2035. Which will be the biggest driver of that growth?
- Industry
- Appliances and cooling
- Electric vehicles
- Data centers
Chart of the Week
While he cannot singlehandedly alter the Fed’s monetary policy framework, Kevin Warsh’s nomination does raise the likelihood that the Fed will follow his preferred course. This suggests that there could be more stimulus on the short end of the curve than the long end when crisis hits. As a result, this might have contributed to the speculative and long duration growth assets such as cryptocurrencies, software and private credit stocks selling off the past two weeks, while the value stocks such as energy, industrials and consumer staples have rallied.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: India Shuffles The Deck
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
13 Feb 2026
India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.
Tariff Troubles
The EM Triple Whammy On Full Display
It would be tempting to ascribe the simultaneous US dollar, bond, and equity market sell-off to the self-owned “crisis” around Greenland and to Trump’s threat to use tariffs against (former?) friends to force a change of sovereignty. Still, the current sell-off in bonds, and equities, may also be driven by other important factors, says Louis.
How Europe Will Respond To Trump’s Greenland Tariffs
On Saturday, US president Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to his plans to annex Greenland. Since then, attention has shifted to how Europe might respond. Cedric argues that conciliation and deescalation remains Europe’s first response to Trump’s new tariff threat, but there is now a greater chance that the EU retaliates in earnest if that strategy fails.
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Understanding The New Trade Regime
In today’s Monitor, we continue our analysis of what Donald Trump’s new trade regime means for the world economy, explain how Indian prime minister Narendra Modi blundered and wound up facing a 50% tariff, and argue that none of the conditions for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war are in place.
US economy & markets
Rate Cuts And Affordability
President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh seem convinced that interest rate cuts will ease US affordability. The phrase is politically resonant but economically ambiguous. Kai Xian sonsiders how rate cuts have affected US households on three fronts.
The Fed’s Balance Sheet And The Treasury’s Gold
Kevin Warsh has repeatedly argued that the Federal Reserve’s assets should be “reduced in size and scope” to limit its influence on capital allocation, wealth distribution and fiscal policy. The question, Will asks, is how this might be done without the Fed sparking a liquidity crisis. In this piece, he considers four potential approaches which are likely under consideration at this very moment.
Market Got Warsh-ed
Notwithstanding the ongoing stabilization in markets, two asset groupings saw sharp falls over the past week, testing positioning and risk tolerance, while more defensively positioned and cyclically supported sectors proved relatively resilient. This divergence, better viewed as a rotation than a broad risk-off event, is instructive. Understanding the drivers of this price action should help clarify what comes next in this phase of the market cycle.
The Odd One Out
Despite recent ructions in overbought markets, 2026 has seen bets on an “inflationary boom” continue to play out, with energy, materials and industrials doing well. The odd one out in this scenario has been US financials, despite a macro backdrop that should have favored them. For investors, the key question is whether US banks will benefit in the usual way from a steepening yield curve, or instead become conduits for populist policy risk in an election year.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Material Realities In China’s Rebalancing
Thomas Gatley
20 Feb 2026
In five years, China has greatly reduced its reliance on property and supporting industries as a driver of economic activity. While the building binge continues to cast a pall over the wider economy, the Chinese stock market has the “old economy” property sector in the rear-view mirror and is fully pricing in “new economy” industries built around advanced manufacturing and the energy transition.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
8 Jan 2026
Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Poland’s Advantages
In recent years, Poland’s economy has grown far faster than those of neighbors Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia. This divergence within the “Visegrád Four” coincided with a sharp widening in Poland’s fiscal deficit from 1.7% of GDP in 2021 to around 6.8% in 2025. In this report, August explains why that fiscal largesse has not undermined the longer term Polish growth story, which continues to benefit from tailwinds as it plays catchup with economies to its west and protects against a menacing Russia to its east.
The Changing Of Lagarde
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde is reportedly preparing to step down from her post at the ECB well before her term ends in October 2027. Whatever Lagarde’s intentions, it is certain that four of the six members of the ECB’s executive board will be replaced by the end of 2027. This prospective game of musical chairs was always likely to generate speculative headlines well in advance of the actual changes. In reality, there will be no simple bilateral stitch-up between Paris and Berlin.
European Equities Still Offer Catch-Up Potential
By anyone’s standards, European equities have had a spectacular run, fractionally beating the stoked-up US market since November 2022. However, given that one key argument for buying European equities has been their compelling valuation relative to US stocks, it has to be asked whether, following their three-year rally, European equities still offer attractive value.
Why Markets Yawn As Britain Moves Left
Last Monday’s Jeffrey-Epstein-related political crisis in Britain came within an hour of forcing the resignation of Keir Starmer. Yet investors responded to these political shenanigans with a yawn. And they were right to do so, despite the fact that a big shift to the left in Britain’s political complexion is now inevitable.
Currencies
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
A New Reflationary Force?
Don’t Bet On A Forever Weak Yen
How To Think About Renminbi Appreciation
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Iran Outcome
Is Clean Energy A Better Hedge Than Oil?
Geoeconomic Monitor: Who’s The Real Winner?
Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Axis Of Energy
