Most recent
Gavekal Research
What Could Go Wrong With US Credit?
Tan Kai Xian
15 Apr 2026
The triple whammy of the Iran war, the private credit exodus and concerns about artificial intelligence disruption is being absorbed with steely calm by the US corporate credit market. This should not come as a huge surprise as US firms, in general, have healthy balance sheets. Yet, despite this otherwise reassuring backdrop, the technology sector stands out as a weak spot.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Building A Tax Panopticon
Ernan Cui
15 Apr 2026
China’s tax authorities have been quietly pursuing what they call the “digital transformation” of tax collection for more than a decade, but those behind-the-scenes changes have now reached a tipping point. As Ernan explains in this piece, new digital systems have supercharged the government’s ability to detect and correct tax evasion, particularly by high-income individuals. These investments in enforcement reflect a new urgency to boost fiscal capacity, in the face of weaker revenues and rising costs from an aging population.
Gavekal Research
Why The Iran War Matters
Louis-Vincent Gave
14 Apr 2026
Investors are living in a period when geopolitics clearly loom large in dictating the performance of the major asset classes. In this piece, Louis seeks to break down this impact with reference to (i) energy prices, (ii) trade flows and supply chains, (iii) industrial systems, and (iv) investment flows. He concludes the report with updated investment recommendations based on the latest developments in the Middle East.
Gavekal Research
The Message In The Oil Curve
Tom Holland
14 Apr 2026
A number of clients have asked about the extraordinary backwardation of the oil market, which has seen the price of long-dated futures remain relatively anchored even as prices at the extreme short end of the curve have surged. "Doesn’t this backwardation mean that market participants are confident the Iran war is effectively over?" Unfortunately, the answer is “No, not really.” Tom explains why.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Vindication For The Stockpilers
Christopher Beddor
The Prospects For A Trend Change In Inflation
Andrew Batson, Wei He
Breaking The LGFV Bonds
Xiaoxi Zhang
Crazy For OpenClaw
Tilly Zhang
China Finally Makes SOEs Pay Up
Andrew Batson
Gavekal Research
Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese
The Trouble With Blockading
Tom Holland
Betting Against The Chinese Steamroller
Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl
Investing For War And Peace
Will Denyer
Webinar: Assessing The Trump Economy
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Tom Holland
Gavekal Technologies
Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese
On The Ground At China’s Tech Conferences (Part I)
Laila Khawaja
In Pharma, The US And China Need Each Other
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan
Alibaba Has A New AI Chip
Laila Khawaja
China’s AI Compute Shortage
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet
The Market’s Take On Global Trade
Didier Darcet
What To Do? Stay Put
Didier Darcet
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet
The Global Portfolio Regatta
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
The EU After Orbán?
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl
9 Apr 2026
On Sunday, Hungarian voters go to the polls in what may well turn be Europe’s most important election of 2026. Hungary’s recent economic underperformance means that for the first time in 16 years, prime minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party faces a credible challenger in the shape of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. Even with a commanding lead in some of the polls, victory is unlikely to be smooth for Magyar. If the challenger does win, however, he will remove a major thorn in the side of Brussels policymaking, with far-reaching consequences for the European Union both at home and abroad.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US PPI rose 4% YoY in Mar, versus 3.4% in Feb
Below expected 4.6%; PPI ex-food & energy rose 3.8% YoY in Mar, the same pace as in Feb
Limited impact of energy shock visible for now; expect hotter readings ahead
US NFIB small business optimism index fell to 95.8 in Mar, versus 98.8 in Feb
Below expected 97.9
Rise in uncertainty dented sentiment slightly; sales and jobs outlook steady for now
Germany wholesale price index rose 4.1% YoY in Mar, versus 1.2% in Feb
NA
Jump driven by energy and metals prices, signaling upstream cost pressures
Japan core machine orders rose 13.6% MoM in Feb, versus -5.5% in Jan
Above expected -1.1%; YoY, core machine orders rose 24.7% in Feb, vs 13.7% in Jan
Volatile series; Iran war likely to have reversed positive momentum
Test Your Knowledge
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates received the most in Chinese investment and construction projects among Persian Gulf countries from 2005-25. Which ranked third?
- Iran
- Iraq
- Qatar
- Kuwait
Chart of the Week
The Iran war has delivered more an oil price shock than a gas and electricity price shock, so far. For European manufacturing, that distinction matters. Crude oil price surges pass through to production costs almost immediately, whereas gas and electricity prices are more regulated and governed by longer-term contracts.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Tom Holland, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand
26 Mar 2026
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
The Iran War And Fallout
Why The Iran War Matters
Investors are living in a period when geopolitics clearly loom large in dictating the performance of the major asset classes. In this piece, Louis seeks to break down this impact with reference to (i) energy prices, (ii) trade flows and supply chains, (iii) industrial systems, and (iv) investment flows. He concludes the report with updated investment recommendations based on the latest developments in the Middle East.
The Trouble With Blockading
It can have surprised no one that the weekend’s talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad broke down with no agreement. The two sides were miles apart going into the meeting, and in 20 hours of negotiations, neither appeared to budge to any significant degree. But Donald Trump’s response, declaring a total blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, was more unexpected. Tom examines if it is likely to be effective.
Investing For War And Peace
As US and Iranian delegations head to Islamabad for talks about an end to the conflict, but with Donald Trump accusing Iran of breaking the terms of Tuesday’s ceasefire, investors are finding that the murk of peace is scarcely any less impenetrable than the fog of war. What is needed is exposure that promises to outperform global equities in both war and peace. One option could be a pairing of long positions in Brazilian and Korean equities.
No Reprieve For Emerging Asia
Asian equities eased back Thursday morning following Wednesday’s euphoric reaction to news of the US-Iran ceasefire. This made sense; peace negotiations will not be plain sailing, and South and Southeast Asian economies remain vulnerable to the continued disruption of fuel
and feedstock supplies from the Persian Gulf. Even if the ceasefire holds—a big “if”—it will
likely take months for trade to recover to pre-war levels. For emerging Asia, this all adds up to a nasty mix of slower growth, higher inflation, rising debt and weaker currencies.
US economy & markets
What Could Go Wrong With US Credit?
The triple whammy of the Iran war, the private credit exodus and concerns about artificial intelligence disruption is being absorbed with steely calm by the US corporate credit market. This should not come as a huge surprise as US firms, in general, have healthy balance sheets. Yet, despite this otherwise reassuring backdrop, the technology sector stands out as a weak spot.
What Anchors Inflation Expectations?
It is now more than five weeks since Donald Trump said the war against Iran would last “four to five weeks,” and there is no end to the conflict in sight. The more the bombing goes on, and the longer the disruption to energy shipping lasts, the greater the risk of an inflationary bust becomes. Short and medium-term bond market inflation expectations have risen, but longer-term expectations have remained serenely untroubled. What explains the divergence?
Valuing Value
In recent years, value stocks—including energy, materials and industrials—have traded at a generous discount to growth stocks, especially technology-sector growth stocks. But since November 2025, much of that excess valuation discount has been eliminated. So, does it still make sense for investors to hold US value?
What Value In US Bonds?
In the four weeks since the bombing began in Iran, 10-year US treasury yields have climbed 48bp, from 3.94% to 4.42%. At this yield, do US treasuries offer attractive value? Should investors buy the dip in US bonds? To value US bonds, Will considers the “golden rule” of French Nobel laureate Maurice Allais and conducts a scenario analysis.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: What OpenClaw Means For Chinese AI
Tilly Zhang
9 Apr 2026
The open-source artificial-intelligence agent OpenClaw has become wildly popular in China and the wider AI world. In this interview, Tilly dissects how OpenClaw plays to the advantages of Chinese AI developers, and its implications for the economics of AI in China—as well as how it might encourage greater take-up of Chinese AI models more broadly.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Betting Against The Chinese Steamroller
The threat posed by the “Chinese steamroller” to industrial sectors around the world is a concern everywhere, but perhaps nowhere more so than Europe—and higher energy costs are now exacerbating those concerns. But Thomas and Cedric argue that betting on the Chinese steamroller has been the wrong call in recent years: European companies have delivered far more earnings to investors, and that appears likely to continue.
The EU After Orbán?
On Sunday, Hungarian voters go to the polls in what may well turn be Europe’s most important election of 2026. Hungary’s recent economic underperformance means that for the first time in 16 years, prime minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party faces a credible challenger in the shape of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. Even with a commanding lead in some of the polls, victory is unlikely to be smooth for Magyar. If the challenger does win, however, he will remove a major thorn in the side of Brussels policymaking, with far-reaching consequences for the European Union both at home and abroad.
The Eurozone Duration Question
Since the bond market sell-off of 2022, investors with long time horizons benefited from keeping eurozone government bond duration short. But since the start of the Iran war, long-dated eurozone government bond yields have climbed by nearly 50bp. So, is now the time to extend duration?
Consuming Through An Energy Shock
As hydrocarbon prices surge amid tit-for-tat attacks against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, European households look exposed. Last week, we argued that this energy crisis was less threatening than the one Europe faced after Russia invaded Ukraine. Even so, the impact will depend on the size and duration of the disruption as well as the response of labor markets, fiscal policy and household saving rates.
Currencies
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
A New Reflationary Force?
Oil & commodities
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
The Iran War Uncertainties
Injurious Exposure
