Most recent
Gavekal Research
Geoeconomic Monitor: Dire Straits, Again
Tom Holland, Tom Miller
10 Jul 2026
Following three days in which Iran and the United States traded military strikes in the Persian Gulf, technical talks between the two sides are scheduled to resume. However, material progress towards a lasting peace will be impossible so long as a power vacuum at the top exacerbates divisions within the Iranian regime. The resulting uncertainty means rebuilding petroleum reserves is a strategic imperative for oil importers, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Tom Miller analyzes Trump’s renewed attempt to squeeze US trade partners in the latest round of the tariff war.
Gavekal Research
France And The Limits Of Eurozone Spread Compression
Cedric Gemehl
10 Jul 2026
The 2027 electoral calendar for the eurozone is unusually heavy. France holds the first round of its presidential election on April 18, while Spain and Italy must hold general elections by August 22 and December 22, respectively. Together, these three countries account for 59% of the eurozone’s €13.9trn public debt stock. This raises a simple question: can eurozone sovereign spreads compress much further as political risk mounts next year?
Gavekal Dragonomics
Video: Explaining China’s Retail Sales Slump
Ernan Cui
9 Jul 2026
China’s consumers are in a funk: retail sales declined in May for the first time since the pandemic, and larger retailers reported an especially sizable contraction in revenue. In this interview, Ernan unpacks the many factors weighing on China’s households, and discusses the likely trajectory for consumption growth in the months ahead.
Gavekal-IS
The Great Confusion Over Economic Quadrants
Didier Darcet
9 Jul 2026
Markets increasingly resemble an inflationary boom, but a longer-term perspective suggests the global economy is still digesting the inflation shock of 2021-23, says Didier. Using Gavekal-IS's seven-year framework, he explains why today's conflicting signals are less contradictory than they appear and why growth could reaccelerate later this year. For investors, it offers a disciplined framework for avoiding major macro pitfalls.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Different Provinces, Same Industrial Policies
Tilly Zhang
In Search Of Fiscal Sustainability
Wei He
Transforming Trucking
Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley
Developer Restructuring Loses Momentum
Xiaoxi Zhang
What's Wrong With Chinese Consumers?
Ernan Cui
Gavekal Research
Europe’s Rearmament Is Hardening
August Gudmundsson
Finding Value In An Age Of Accelerating Creative Destruction
Louis-Vincent Gave
Latin America’s Capital Shift
Rohan Daswani, Udith Sikand
A Buy Recommendation
Charles Gave
Meta Rings The Bell—Again
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
Memory Shortage Hits Smartphones
Laila Khawaja
The New Energy System Takes Shape
AJ Cortese, Arthur Kroeber
CXMT Is Growing Fast, But Can’t Solve The DRAM Shortage
Laila Khawaja
Tesla’s Two Way Bet In Physical AI
AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock
Agentic AI’s Growing Pains
Huang Shichan
Gavekal-IS
The Bond Portfolio For A Swiss Investor
Didier Darcet
From Desacralization To Resacralization Of Power
Didier Darcet
A Baby Shower For Information As An Asset Class
Didier Darcet
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome
Will Denyer
12 Jun 2026
SpaceX just raised a record US$75bn in its initial public offering on Thursday and may raise another US$11bn through the exercise of the greenshoe option. As investors make room in their portfolios for a deal that could ultimately total US$86bn, this is temporarily weighing on demand for other equities. Although the market should be able to digest an IPO of this size with little more than a temporary period of volatility, Will argues that some medium-term risks to US equities remain.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US existing home sales fell -2.4% MoM to 4.1mn in Jun, versus 4.2mn in May
Below expected 4.2mn
Elevated mortgage rates continue to hurt affordability, crimping demand
Germany trade surplus widened to €19.1bn in May, versus €14.7bn in Apr
Above expected €14.8bn; exports (15% YoY) rose faster than imports (3% YoY)
Strong external demand from US offsetting subdued domestic demand
Mexico CPI rose 3.4% YoY in Jun, versus 3.9% in May
Below expected 3.5%; core CPI rose 4% YoY in Jun, versus 4.2% in May
Sustained down trend in inflation could reopen room for rate cuts by Banxico
Taiwan trade surplus narrowed to US$12.2bn in Jun, versus US$17.9bn in May
Below expected US$19bn; imports (52% YoY) rose faster than exports (40% YoY)
Export outlook remains upbeat amid strong external demand for semiconductors
Test Your Knowledge
European food and beverage products are a frequent target for Chinese protectionist measures. Which product did Brussels strike back at this week?
- Baijiu
- Tofu
- Noodles
- Pekin duck
Chart of the Week
Has the US Federal Reserve already hit its inflation target? In short, no. While the new chair, Kevin Warsh, favors trimmed mean measures of US inflation, and did say during his first press conference that he cares more about the 2 in the inflation target than what comes after the decimal (implying a 2.0-2.9% acceptable inflation range), US monetary policy is determined by committee.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Regime Change Can Cause Market Madness
Anatole Kaletsky, Tom Holland
3 Jul 2026
Markets continue to behave as if the world has not fundamentally changed, even as inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and global capital flows enter a new regime. Anatole argues that investors are systematically mispricing four major shifts: the long-term outlook for inflation and bond yields, the global growth cycle, the rotation from AI-led growth to cyclical value and the end of US exceptionalism.
The Iran War And Fallout
Geoeconomic Monitor: Latin America Turns Right
With tensions cooling in the Middle East, global attention is shifting elsewhere. In Latin America’s rambunctious political landscape, electorates continue to vote in right-wing leaders. But the wave may yet break before it reaches Brazil, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite to win his fourth term in October’s election, says Tom Miller. Back in the Strait of Hormuz, Tom Holland explains why Iran’s emerging protection racket sets a dangerous precedent for global trade.
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
On Thursday morning in Asia, front month Brent crude futures were trading at US$72.48/bbl. The price is significant, because on February 27, just hours before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, Brent closed at US$72.48. In other words, with a memorandum of understanding on peace in place and talks scheduled on a longer-term deal, the price of oil has dropped back to where it was on the eve of the conflict. So, is the 2026 energy crisis really over—with relatively little economic harm done?
The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
Takeaways From The Iran Peace Deal
A number of “Iran peace deals” have been proclaimed over the past two months. However, this latest one does feel more genuine than its predecessors. Assuming that by next weekend, the Strait of Hormuz is once again open to maritime traffic, and that the Gulf states no longer have to worry about drone or missile strikes, what should be our takeaways?
US economy & markets
The Case For US Bank Stocks
While the S&P 500 index has moved sideways since June 1, the S&P 500 Banks index has gained a robust 13%. This marks a sharp reversal from the first five months of the year. The recent outperformance suggests investors’ concerns are easing. More importantly, the fundamental backdrop for US banks has strengthened considerably.
What’s Driving The Dollar
When the Iran war started, the US dollar strengthened on a flight to safety. This raised the possibility that with peace, the dollar could weaken again on renewed capital outflows. Instead, the US currency has strengthened further, with the DXY index hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. What is behind this rally? The following factors are worth considering.
Chinese Models And The US AI Boom
With the launch of its GLM-5.2 model, Z.ai has mounted the most impressive Chinese challenge yet to US dominance in artificial intelligence. At the same time, Microsoft is considering adding models from China’s DeepSeek to its Copilot offerings. Together, these two developments confirm that Chinese AI is now a front-line competitor. The implications for US and global equities are far reaching.
Has The Fed Already Hit Its Inflation Target?
Going into Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, investors were looking to see how he might shake things up on three fronts: the inflation target, the balance sheet and communication. The only changes made at Warsh’s first meeting were to communication, but further changes are in store.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Dragonomics
Video: Explaining China’s Retail Sales Slump
Ernan Cui
9 Jul 2026
China’s consumers are in a funk: retail sales declined in May for the first time since the pandemic, and larger retailers reported an especially sizable contraction in revenue. In this interview, Ernan unpacks the many factors weighing on China’s households, and discusses the likely trajectory for consumption growth in the months ahead.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 2Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
3 Jul 2026
The second quarter was dominated by an extraordinary surge in risk appetite as semiconductor stocks powered one of the largest increases in global equity market capitalization on record, yet beneath the exuberance, markets underwent significant macro shifts. Louis reviews the quarter's defining developments.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
France And The Limits Of Eurozone Spread Compression
The 2027 electoral calendar for the eurozone is unusually heavy. France holds the first round of its presidential election on April 18, while Spain and Italy must hold general elections by August 22 and December 22, respectively. Together, these three countries account for 59% of the eurozone’s €13.9trn public debt stock. This raises a simple question: can eurozone sovereign spreads compress much further as political risk mounts next year?
Europe’s Rearmament Is Hardening
After a chaotic day in Ankara, Nato leaders appeared to reach a consensus, recommitting to spend 5% of GDP on defense. While attention centered on President Donald Trump’s threats to restart US bombing of Iran, the summit will likely be remembered for cementing Europe’s shift toward rearmament. The question now is whether that buildup happens quickly through purchases of US weapons systems or more gradually as Europe rebuilds its own military-industrial complex.
Stagflation Averted, Upswing In Place
The latest batch of data from the eurozone suggests that the inflationary shock from the US-Iran war is already fading. As it recedes, so does the risk of economic stagflation, leaving the eurozone free to rediscover the gentler, more benign, underlying reflationary trend that had been bedding down before the war’s start.
China, Germany And Eastern Europe’s Factory Hub
European policymakers fear a second “China shock” could devastate the continent’s manufacturing base, with the Visegrád Four seemingly among the most exposed. Yet the evidence points to a more nuanced story for the Eastern Europe group.
Currencies
The Slump In Asian Currencies
A Concentrated Inflationary Boom Or A Bet On The Fed?
Demand And Supply Of Money
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Oil & commodities
Energy Markets Are Too Complacent
Video: Oil After Hormuz
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
