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Gavekal Research
Video: Paying Court To Xi Jinping
Tom Miller
21 May 2026
Just days after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin also touched down in Beijing for his own meeting with the Chinese leader. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the objectives of China’s diplomatic push, digs into the energy trade that underpins Russia-China relations, assesses whether the US-China summit was a triumph of style over substance, and examines how evolving strategies over Taiwan affect the balance between Washington and Beijing.
Gavekal-IS
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
Didier Darcet
21 May 2026
In last week’s note, Didier warned that declining energy productivity is likely to slow global growth. Since growth and corporate profits are closely linked, the implication is a weaker outlook for equities and a rational case for reducing exposure. But how robust is the relationship between growth and profits? In this report, Didier examines the question through the contrasting lenses of hard science and economics.
Gavekal Research
The Other US Capex Question
Tan Kai Xian
21 May 2026
Everyone wants to know whether the AI capital expenditure boom will prove sustainable, and whether it will ever generate the hoped-for returns. But there is another question almost as important: what is happening to capex outside the AI sector, and why?
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Reversal For Migrant Workers
Ernan Cui
21 May 2026
As China’s labor-market malaise enters its fifth year, the impact is becoming increasingly serious for the class of people who fill many low-wage jobs in cities: rural migrant workers. Ernan argues that as urban job opportunities evaporate, rural migrants are returning to the countryside in large numbers—and while the leadership is now expressing more concern for rural migrants, economic policy has not substantially shifted to prioritize job creation.
Gavekal Dragonomics
An Uneasy US-China Understanding
Arthur Kroeber
The Oil Shock Arrives
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
China’s Supporting Role In The AI Boom
Thomas Gatley
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Foreign EV Makers Fight Back
Ernan Cui
Gavekal Research
The Emergence Of A New Anchor
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave
The Age Of The Scientific Investor
Louis-Vincent Gave
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
Important Trends
Louis-Vincent Gave
A French Lesson For India
Charles Gave
Gavekal Technologies
The AI Boom’s Critical Minerals Problems
Laila Khawaja
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
Constructive Stability, Or Uneasy Stalemate?
Arthur Kroeber, AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock
Corporate America’s Beijing Shopping List
Laila Khawaja
Triumphant Technology, Murderous Market
Tom Hancock, Ernan Cui, AJ Cortese, Leonid Mironov
Gavekal-IS
Economic Regime Shift
Didier Darcet
Chinese Impressions
Didier Darcet
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part II)
Didier Darcet
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part I)
Didier Darcet
The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Rolling Over The Iran Ceasefire
Louis-Vincent Gave
23 Apr 2026
The next round of the Islamabad peace talks is up in the air, partly because it is not obvious who really holds the levers of power in Iran. The plan was that, should Iran’s political leaders be killed, the 31 regional commanders would become independent actors whose task was simply to take the fight to the enemy. Louis argues this leaves investors with three main possible scenarios.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
UK CPI rose 2.8% YoY in Apr, versus 3.3% in Mar
Inflation cooler than expected 3%; core CPI rose 2.5% YoY in Apr, versus 3.1% in Mar
Distorted by gov't energy price cap changes; upside risks to keep BoE on hawkish tilt
German PPI rose 1.7% YoY in Apr, versus -0.2% in Mar
Producer inflation warmer than expected 1.5%
Highest reading since Feb 2025; underscores renewed upstream inflation pressures
Indonesia hiked benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 5.25%
Hike bigger than expected 25bp increase
Jumbo hike aimed at curbing IDR depreciation pressure as well as limiting inflation
Taiwanese export orders rose 48.1% YoY in Apr, versus 65.9% in Mar
Stronger than expected 45%
Upbeat export outlook underpinned by strong demand for AI-related products
Chart of the Week
In an effort to preserve foreign exchange reserves, India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. This may only slightly dampen demand for gold in India, but a reversal of the current account deficit would require a heavy cutback of imports. If Indians stopped buying gold, it would give the Reserve Bank of India more breathing room, reduce inflationary pressure and help strengthen the rupee, but India may also face job losses, an industry slowdown, culture shock and reduced financial security for many families. A much more meaningful option would be a round of foreign capital raising.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
20 May 2026
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
The Iran War And Fallout
The Oil Shock Arrives
The general expectation had been that China would weather the shock better than many other economies. The April data instead showed that it is hitting the economy harder than expected. Wei and the Dragonomics Team argue that the economy will continue to absorb
damage as long as oil prices remain high, but policymakers will remain hesitant to introduce meaningful stimulus unless the bad data persists into the coming months.
An Orderly Stagflation—So Far
Recent data releases confirm that the eurozone is heading into a near-term future of slower growth and faster inflation as the economy feels the effects of higher energy prices triggered by the Iran war. But so far, the impact has been absorbed relatively smoothly. This suggests the eurozone economy is adjusting in an orderly fashion, and is not falling into a full-blown crisis.
A Stress Test, Not A Collapse
It is now 10 weeks since the Iran war led to the suspension of almost all energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz. While the physical oil market has exhibited stress, futures market pricing continues to imply a full resumption of Middle Eastern exports in the next three months. In this paper, Leonid Mironov examines the state of the oil market’s buffers against a continued supply shock—the state of inventories and possible workarounds to bypass Hormuz—to assess where the market is working, and where it is mispricing risk.
Asian Damage Control
Almost 10 weeks after ships stopped sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the pain in Asia from the disruption to fuel and feedstock supplies is finally showing up in the macro data. The question for investors is whether rising economic pain triggers a bout of contagion selling and a financial shock across the region, as during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Udith and Tom argue that there are two major reasons to think Asia will avoid a full-blown financial crisis.
US economy & markets
The Other US Capex Question
Everyone wants to know whether the AI capital expenditure boom will prove sustainable, and whether it will ever generate the hoped-for returns. But there is another question almost as important: what is happening to capex outside the AI sector, and why?
Warsh, Inflation And US Bonds
On Wednesday the US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve this Friday. Warsh will get no honeymoon period. After high US inflation prints, in intraday trading Wednesday, 10-year US treasury yields touched 4.5% for the first time since June 2025. And at almost 2.5%, the breakeven inflation rate on 10-year treasuries is close to its high for the last three years. Will breakeven inflation rates break higher from here? If so, how will the Fed and its new leader respond? What will this mean for US bond yields?
Funding For AI
The boom in US artificial intelligence-related profits and investment continues to gather momentum. Yet beneath the optimism, concerns are emerging over how this investment surge is being funded. However, Kai Xian remains optimistic and looks at the factors supporting the expansion.
Navigating The AI Bubble: An Update
The artificial intelligence capital spending boom rages on, as evidenced by strong earnings releases and even stronger equity rallies from AI-related companies in the US and globally. With no clear signs of fatigue, the more relevant question is how durable this cycle is, what shape its key drivers are in and what could derail it.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Paying Court To Xi Jinping
Tom Miller
21 May 2026
Just days after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin also touched down in Beijing for his own meeting with the Chinese leader. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the objectives of China’s diplomatic push, digs into the energy trade that underpins Russia-China relations, assesses whether the US-China summit was a triumph of style over substance, and examines how evolving strategies over Taiwan affect the balance between Washington and Beijing.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
An Orderly Stagflation—So Far
Recent data releases confirm that the eurozone is heading into a near-term future of slower growth and faster inflation as the economy feels the effects of higher energy prices triggered by the Iran war. But so far, the impact has been absorbed relatively smoothly. This suggests the eurozone economy is adjusting in an orderly fashion, and is not falling into a full-blown crisis.
Starmer’s Ruin Is Bullish For UK Assets
Conventional opinion in Britain has it that a defenestration of Keir Starmer will spur a lurch to the left and the embrace of tax and spend policies that hurt the outlook for UK assets. Anatole disagrees with this stance and says that Britain may now offer an interesting contrarian opportunity for equity, currency and possibly even bond investors.
Food For The ECB Hawks
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but said that risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Iran war had “intensified”. As energy prices continue to grind higher, the policy bias is being tilted toward higher rates. The near-term inflationary impulse stems almost entirely from energy effects, argues August.
What Iran Changes For Europe
The impact of the Iran war on Europe is difficult to pin down, given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty. A useful way to frame the outlook, argues Cedric, is by time horizon. This lens offers clarity at both ends of the horizon, while uncertainty is concentrated in the medium term.
Currencies
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Behind The Dollar’s Decline
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
