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Brazil Stews Over Chinese Investment

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Brazil Stews Over Chinese Investment

Tom Miller
30 Sep 2022
As Brazil prepares to go to the polls in the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, economic issues will loom large. A key problem for Brazil is its low level of investment, but the are hopes that a new government could change that. Tom assesses how much impact Chinese investment will have.
Video: The New Italian Job

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Video: The New Italian Job

Nick Andrews
30 Sep 2022
After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.

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In Defense Of Liz Truss

Charles Gave
30 Sep 2022
As I look at Britain’s current economic policy mix, it seems that certain people in the UK had come to understand that the country has lived way beyond its means for too long, and it was necessary for the economy-wide level of savings to be raised.

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Webinar: Who Owns China Inc.?

Thomas Gatley
30 Sep 2022
Thomas Gatley discussed his in-depth research into who owns China’s listed firms and answered viewer questions. Over the past decade a new hybrid form of ownership has emerged, which arguably represents the corporate form best adapted to succeed in China’s state capitalist economy. But there are risks to this new model.

The global view

The US Dollar Wrecking Ball
In a dangerous world, the reason for the US dollar’s super-charged performance over the last year has been investors’ view that it is the “cleanest dirty shirt” in a smelly pile of laundry. But Louis is not persuaded by this relativist argument.
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The Sad Passing Of Queen Elizabeth II
At the end of Elizabeth II’s long reign, Louis ruefully recalls the advice he gave in early 2020 that investors should prefer to hold assets in currencies with the Queen’s head on their banknotes. Given the woeful recent performance of sterling, the loonie, the Aussie and the kiwi, his argument may be looking shaky to some. But on consideration, Louis maintains that those currencies which from now on will display with the King’s head on their banknotes will still offer a better long-term bet for investors.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, September 2022
Anatole outlined the global growth and inflation outlook, and why financial markets have yet to fully adjust; Charles presented his thinking on the dissolution of the post-World-War-Two order and what this means for assets; and Arthur gave an update on China ahead of the 20th Party Congress.
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The Questions That Matter
Heading into the Jackson Hole symposium, investors are waiting with bated breath on the prepared remarks of Jay Powell to see if the Federal Reserve is sounding hawkish or dovish. But it is worth looking beyond the Fed’s pronouncements to other trends that will dictate the direction of markets.
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Test Your Knowledge
Which sector in the US has seen the biggest increase in job openings since just before the start of the pandemic, at more than 111%?
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Chart of the Week

Week 39, 2022

Week 39, 2022

The UK, Norway and the Netherlands produced 9% of the world’s natural gas up to 2005, when Europe’s gas supply was more secure. Since 2005 natural gas production fell sharply due to a combination of maturing gas fields, high production costs, low prices, high taxes and tighter environmental regulation. This downward production trend is now reversing—least in the UK.

Ukraine Fallout

Russia, Do Your Worst
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Who Is Copying Who? Part II
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The Microsoft-ification Of Warfare
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The End Of The Unipolar Era
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World Enters New Liquidity Crisis
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Gas! Gas! Gas!
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Gavekal Dragonomics

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Webinar: Who Owns China Inc.?

Thomas Gatley
30 Sep 2022
Thomas Gatley discussed his in-depth research into who owns China’s listed firms and answered viewer questions. Over the past decade a new hybrid form of ownership has emerged, which arguably represents the corporate form best adapted to succeed in China’s state capitalist economy. But there are risks to this new model.

India chartbook

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India Macro Update: A Glimmer Of Hope

Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
15 Sep 2022
India’s economy is recovering nicely, even if the latest quarterly growth data showing a 13.5% year-on-year expansion was flattered by favorable base effects. Looking forward, the problem is an adverse external backdrop that is hurting exports and leaving India’s capital markets vulnerable to another risk-off move as global liquidity tightens.

China chartbook

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Macro Update: Confidence Crumbles

Dragonomics Team
26 Jul 2022
China has mostly reopened from the latest wave of mass lockdowns, and manufacturing is back online. But household consumption is subpar and confidence is poor, while the property sector is undergoing its deepest downturn since 2008. In our latest quarterly chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the changing outlook for the economy and markets.

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Latest video

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Video: The New Italian Job

Nick Andrews
30 Sep 2022
After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.

Oil & commodities

Brazil’s New China Gambit
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Strategy Monthly: China’s Property Problem
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Who Gets Cheap Energy Tomorrow?
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The Signal And The Noise, Part II
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Webinar: What Next For Emerging Markets?
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Strategy Monthly: The Silver Lining In Emerging Markets
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China tech

The US Runs Faster In The Chips Race
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Chip Investors Are Too Pessimistic
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Plenty Of Friction But No Flames Over Taiwan
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Multinationals Turn Cautious
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London Seminar — March 2022
Better Manufacturing Through Science
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From the archives: oldies but goodies

Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite
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Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite

Anatole Kaletsky
In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes. I believe that both of these obsessions will soon be forgotten.
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?

Louis-Vincent Gave
The role of a society’s elite is to rise to the challenges of the times, and find solutions fitting to those times, even if this involves a radical break with the past. But the modus operandi for most leaders is to try and maintain the status quo. But if the problems are large enough, this does not work, and the same challenges reappear until either a solution is found, the elite is replaced by a new elite, or the country, system or civilization disappears.
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The High Cost Of Free Money
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The High Cost Of Free Money

Charles Gave
Perhaps the most famous economic law is the one that there is no such thing as a free lunch. By keeping US short rates at abnormally low levels beyond the financial crisis and as growth bounces back beyond the dreams of the wildest optimists, the Fed increasingly seems to be trying to ‘feed the US economy for nothing’. This is worrying, for extended periods of cheap money typically come back with a hefty price tag.
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