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Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization

Gavekal Research

Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization

Louis-Vincent Gave, Vincent Deluard
2 Jul 2022
As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.
Questioning Eurozone Wage Growth

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Questioning Eurozone Wage Growth

Cedric Gemehl
1 Jul 2022
Inflation in the eurozone has climbed to its highest since the launch of the euro, while unemployment has fallen to its lowest. Thus it's little surprise that wage growth is accelerating. Nevertheless, there is small chance of a runaway wage-price spiral in the eurozone.

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The Cost Of The Gas Squeeze

Nick Andrews
1 Jul 2022
The EU has been able to meet a shortfall of Russian gas by ramping up seaborne imports of liquefied natural gas. But if supplies of Russian gas remain at current levels, the EU will face an economically expensive energy squeeze this winter.

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Refining Zero Covid

Ernan Cui
30 Jun 2022
The government this week reduced quarantine periods for foreign arrivals and limited the discretion of local officials to impose harsh containment measures. Ernan explains that while China will maintain the zero-Covid policy, officials are refining the playbook to minimize collateral economic damage.
Test Your Knowledge
Britons were scammed out of £1.3bn in 2021. Which category of fraud cost them the most?
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Chart of the Week

Week 26, 2022

Week 26, 2022

About a quarter of the UK government's debt is linked to the retail price index, which has risen 11.6% over the last year as energy and goods prices soared due to supply disruptions. In other countries, inflation-linked bonds account for a much lower share of government debt. As inflation rises the UK is spending more on interest payments, leaving it less room for maneuver amid slowing growth.

Ukraine Fallout

Russia, Do Your Worst
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Who Is Copying Who? Part II
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The Microsoft-ification Of Warfare
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The End Of The Unipolar Era
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World Enters New Liquidity Crisis
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Gas! Gas! Gas!
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Gavekal Research

Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization

Louis-Vincent Gave, Vincent Deluard
2 Jul 2022
As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.

India chartbook

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India Macro Update: Unmet Potential

Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
13 Jun 2022
As high inflation crimps consumption and interest rate hikes retard capital spending, Indian growth for 2022/23 is set to register a disappointing 7-7.5%. A slew of fiscal measures aimed at cooling inflation will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank of India. But in a global environment of resurgent price pressures and the threat of more supply disruptions, India seems set to undershoot its growth potential, argue Udith and Tom in their quarterly assessment.

China chartbook

Gavekal Dragonomics

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The China Inc. Annual Report 2022

Thomas Gatley
3 Jun 2022
China’s companies are facing a new shock to growth from renewed lockdowns in 2022, along with weakening global demand and higher costs. How prepared are they to deal with this latest wave of disruption? In his annual chartbook, Thomas assesses the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector through a detailed examination of income statements and balance sheets.

Gavekal Dragonomics

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Latest video

Gavekal Research

Video: The Quirinale Question

Nick Andrews
14 Jan 2022
The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

Oil & commodities

Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization
The Inherent Tension In Malthusian Bull Markets
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, June 2022
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A New Era Of Resource Nationalism
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How China Is Winning The Lithium Race
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The Fallout From Food
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China tech

Multinationals Turn Cautious
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London Seminar — March 2022
Better Manufacturing Through Science
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Dependence And Restraint
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Congress Pushes Decoupling
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Guiding The Gig Economy
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From the archives: oldies but goodies

Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite
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Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite

Anatole Kaletsky
In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes. I believe that both of these obsessions will soon be forgotten.
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?
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Are We Entering into Revolutionary Times?

Louis-Vincent Gave
The role of a society’s elite is to rise to the challenges of the times, and find solutions fitting to those times, even if this involves a radical break with the past. But the modus operandi for most leaders is to try and maintain the status quo. But if the problems are large enough, this does not work, and the same challenges reappear until either a solution is found, the elite is replaced by a new elite, or the country, system or civilization disappears.
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The High Cost Of Free Money
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The High Cost Of Free Money

Charles Gave
Perhaps the most famous economic law is the one that there is no such thing as a free lunch. By keeping US short rates at abnormally low levels beyond the financial crisis and as growth bounces back beyond the dreams of the wildest optimists, the Fed increasingly seems to be trying to ‘feed the US economy for nothing’. This is worrying, for extended periods of cheap money typically come back with a hefty price tag.
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