Most recent
Gavekal Research
Video: Oil After Hormuz
Tom Holland
4 Jun 2026
Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
Gavekal Research
A Tale Of Two Krone(a)s
August Gudmundsson
4 Jun 2026
The Norwegian krone has been Europe’s best-performing currency this year, but the real story is not just oil. While higher crude prices have helped, the more important driver has been Norway’s inflation and interest rate dynamics. These underlying forces are best illustrated by comparing Norway’s economic performance with that of neighboring Sweden, says August. Such an analysis points to a currency trend that may have run its course.
Gavekal-IS
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
4 Jun 2026
The upcoming SpaceX IPO could become an epic wealth-creation event because so few shares are likely to be available for trading relative to the stock’s potential index weight. By allowing companies with limited free floats to exert outsized influence, the Nasdaq is effectively violating a basic principle of physics, argues Didier. The result may be explosive gains for early investors, but also a market that becomes increasingly unstable and dependent on passive flows.
Gavekal Research
South Korea Still Has Upside
Udith Sikand
4 Jun 2026
The South Korean equity market has been on an astonishing bull run. And the rally has taken place even though the Korean won has been one of the weakest currencies in Asia. In an export dependent economy that ran a current account surplus last year, and is likely to run an even bigger surplus this year, this divergence is hard to ignore. Today, macroeconomic and market dynamics suggest the won’s depreciation is unlikely to continue.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Oil Reserves Are Missing In Action
Thomas Gatley
AI Expansion Hits Limits In China
Tilly Zhang
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Wei He
Consumer Defaults Are Climbing
Xiaoxi Zhang
The Invisible Barriers To Migration
Ernan Cui
Gavekal Research
The Energy Shock And The India Growth Story
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand
Mega-IPOs And Reputation Risk
Will Denyer
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Tom Holland
Liquidity Injections And Liquidity Drains
Louis-Vincent Gave
Three Regions, Three Demographic Challenges
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Technologies
China Refines Outbound Investment Rules
Laila Khawaja
China’s Export-Control Calculus
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja
Introducing Huawei’s ‘Tau (τ) Scaling Law’
Laila Khawaja
The Battery Design Battle
AJ Cortese
The AI Boom’s Critical Minerals Problems
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
Didier Darcet
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
Didier Darcet
Economic Regime Shift
Didier Darcet
Chinese Impressions
Didier Darcet
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part II)
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Rolling Over The Iran Ceasefire
Louis-Vincent Gave
23 Apr 2026
The next round of the Islamabad peace talks is up in the air, partly because it is not obvious who really holds the levers of power in Iran. The plan was that, should Iran’s political leaders be killed, the 31 regional commanders would become independent actors whose task was simply to take the fight to the enemy. Louis argues this leaves investors with three main possible scenarios.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US ADP employment rose 122k in May, versus 105k in Apr
Rise greater than 120k expected
Underlying trend consistent with labor market stabilization rather than improved hiring
US ISM services index rose to 54.5 in May, from 53.6 in Apr
Above expected 53.8
Rise in price component overshadowed by strong uptick in orders
US factory orders rose 4.8% MoM in Apr, versus 1.8% in Mar
Stronger than expected 4.6%; core capital goods orders fell -1% MoM in Apr vs 3.8%
Headline uptick driven by volatile aircraft orders; non-AI capex continues to soften
Eurozone PPI rose 4.9% YoY in Mar, versus 2.0% in Feb
As expected
Acceleration in PPI ex-energy indicates broadening of upstream cost pressures
Test Your Knowledge
Why does Google want to introduce 32mn mosquitoes into the US over the next two years?
- The mosquitoes prey on the kissing bugs which carry chagas disease
- It hopes the release of sterile males will reduce local mosquito populations
- The genetically engineered “super mosquitoes” are intended to outcompete the common mosquitoes which carry West Nile virus
Chart of the Week
China’s industrial profits rose to 24.7% YoY in April from 15.8% in March. That substantial gain masks highly uneven profitability: while upstream sectors, especially oil and gas, have benefitted from the oil price shock, total profit growth outside of the commodity complex slowed. Moreover, profits are declining in YoY terms for firms outside of the commodities and electronics industries. And after removing price effects, China’s real industrial activity does not appear to be improving.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
20 May 2026
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
The Iran War And Fallout
Video: Oil After Hormuz
Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
Oil Reserves Are Missing In Action
China’s stockpiling of oil looked prescient at the outbreak of the Iran war. But Thomas argues that the government does not appear to have dug into those reserves, even amid a sharp falloff in oil imports. The damage will end up being a short-term blip if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon—but if the closure drags on, policymakers could get more aggressive in using reserves to cushion the dropoff in economic activity.
Rose-Tinted Markets
Markets in Asia largely shrugged off the news Tuesday morning that the US military had launched fresh attacks against targets in Southern Iran, preferring Monday’s narrative that Washington and Tehran are on the edge of sealing a preliminary peace deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. A deal might be in the offing, but trust is low, the obstacles are formidable and progress is slow.
The Oil Shock Arrives
The general expectation had been that China would weather the shock better than many other economies. The April data instead showed that it is hitting the economy harder than expected. Wei and the Dragonomics Team argue that the economy will continue to absorb
damage as long as oil prices remain high, but policymakers will remain hesitant to introduce meaningful stimulus unless the bad data persists into the coming months.
US economy & markets
Mega-IPOs And Reputation Risk
Unless you have been living on Mars, you know that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected shortly to price the largest initial public offerings in history. In addition, Alphabet just announced a massive secondary share issue. Can the market digest all this new stock? And even if it can, what are the risks these mega-IPOs, together with concurrent changes to index inclusion rules, could blow a hole in some of the best brands in finance: the US equity market in general and the Nasdaq in particular?
Should We Fear The Jobpocalypse?
Job losses caused by AI are already happening. In recent weeks, companies from Cisco to Standard Chartered have announced job cuts as the new technology renders workers redundant. Nevertheless, for investors the jury is still out whether the coming upheavals in the labor market will be positive or negative at the macroeconomic level and for markets.
Warsh’s Balance Sheet
Investors have two key concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy under Kevin Warsh’s leadership of the Federal Reserve: will his Fed continue to target 2% inflation, and will the institution’s balance sheet be cleansed? Will tackled the first question in a separate paper. In this report, he focuses on potential changes to the Fed’s balance sheet and their implications for markets.
South Korea’s Shipbuilding Hedge
The AI boom which has powered South Korea’s spectacular equity rally is not the only theme in town. Another is the deepening geopolitical and economic alignment between Seoul and Washington as the US moves to strengthen its national security industrial base. As such, the US Navy may soon outsource part of its warship design and construction to South Korea. If this materializes, Kai Xian says that Korean shipbuilding companies could become major beneficiaries.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Oil After Hormuz
Tom Holland
4 Jun 2026
Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Apr 2026
For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
A Tale Of Two Krone(a)s
The Norwegian krone has been Europe’s best-performing currency this year, but the real story is not just oil. While higher crude prices have helped, the more important driver has been Norway’s inflation and interest rate dynamics. These underlying forces are best illustrated by comparing Norway’s economic performance with that of neighboring Sweden, says August. Such an analysis points to a currency trend that may have run its course.
Beyond The Sorry Case Of European Equities
Investors in European equities must fondly remember 2025 as a rare period when European equities outperformed global equities. That now feels like a long time ago. Cedric and August examine the two factors getting the blame for European underperformance this year and look for catch-up opportunities.
China Plugs Into Europe’s Auto Demand
European car sales are benefiting from a cyclical upswing in demand, and the recent rise in gasoline and diesel prices driven by the Iran war is skewing demand towards hybrid and electric vehicles. For now, demand favors hybrid-electric vehicles, in which established manufacturers have an edge in the European market. But the structural trend is towards battery-electric vehicles, where Chinese brands have the edge. August asks whether European brands can catch up and assesses the economic consequences.
Europe’s New Fiscal Faultlines
European sovereign bond yields have been rising lately. Most of these increases have been driven by market expectations of short-term interest rate increases. Most, but not all. For some, a small part of the rise is attributable to investor concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability. However, Europe’s fiscal faultlines have shifted; the group of countries most severely affected will not be the same as in the debt crisis of the early 2010s.
Currencies
Dialing Back Expectations For Appreciation
Monetizing US Budget Deficits
The New World Does Not Need A Reserve Currency
Video: Hong Kong’s Renminbi Question
What To Do With US$1trn?
On The False Price Of The Yen
Oil & commodities
Video: Oil After Hormuz
The State Of World Oil Stocks
Geoeconomic Monitor: After Beijing
Copper, Oil And Gold
The Message In The Oil Curve
Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
