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The Global Impact Of The Construction Malaise

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The Global Impact Of The Construction Malaise

Thomas Gatley
18 Aug 2022
China’s construction recession has already lasted a year, with little prospect of a meaningful rebound in coming months. Thomas argues an extended downturn for the industry would hit commodity exporters among emerging markets and capital-goods exporters among developed markets, a prospect that financial markets do not yet seem to be pricing in.
Infrastructure Isn’t Enough

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Infrastructure Isn’t Enough

Andrew Batson
17 Aug 2022
China's government is relying heavily on public-sector infrastructure investment to stabilize growth. But Andrew argues that infrastructure spending alone has never been enough to turn around the business cycle. Unless and until officials can stabilize the property market, growth could continue to grind lower.

Gavekal Research

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Don’t Count On A Delisting Deal

Thomas Gatley
16 Aug 2022
On Friday the five largest Chinese state-owned enterprises traded on US markets announced their voluntary delisting from the New York Stock Exchange, a coordinated move that seems to have been signed off by Beijing. In the increasingly turbulent US-China relationship, a deal allowing smaller private Chinese companies to retain their US listings seems unlikely.

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The Faltering Recovery Forces Easing

Dragonomics Team
15 Aug 2022
China’s central bank cut policy interest rates for the second time this year, after data for July showed deteriorating credit growth and economic momentum. The Dragonomics team argues that significant downward pressure on the economy will remain in the coming months unless the government provides substantially more policy support.

Featured report

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Macro Update: Confidence Crumbles

Dragonomics Team
26 Jul 2022
China has mostly reopened from the latest wave of mass lockdowns, and manufacturing is back online. But household consumption is subpar and confidence is poor, while the property sector is undergoing its deepest downturn since 2008. In our latest quarterly chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the changing outlook for the economy and markets.

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Germany And China: The End Of The Affair
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Yanmei Xie
The Construction Recession Deepens
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Rosealea Yao
Policy Banks Are Back
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Xiaoxi Zhang
Manufacturing Diversification Gains Speed
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Dan Wang
Refined Covid Policies Are Working, So Far
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Ernan Cui
Pelosi Lights Up Taiwan
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Arthur Kroeber
A Transatlantic Convergence On China
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Yanmei Xie, Dan Wang
No News Is Not Good News
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Wei He

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The China Inc. Annual Report 2022
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, June 2022
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Webinar: Is The Worst Over For China?
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Macro Update: Growth Interrupted
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Reopening In Slow Motion
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Lockdowns Take A Bite
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