Most Recent
Gavekal Research
Webinar: After The China Shock
Thomas Gatley, Wei He
29 Sep 2023
After a nasty deflationary shock, China's macro data have started to turn around at the margin. Yet markets remain unconvinced, with equities headed down and the currency still under pressure. Our China macro and markets experts will tackle these and other urgent questions about the outlook.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Car Exports Have Two Engines
Andrew Batson
28 Sep 2023
China’s sudden emergence as the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars is one of the biggest changes in global trade in decades. Its exports of electric vehicles have gotten most of the attention, but there is another driver that is just as large: its shipments of internal-combustion engine cars. These are booming as Chinese carmakers try to find new markets for vehicles that are getting harder to sell domestically. This will increasingly look like dumping, and could drive a new round of trade tensions.
Gavekal Research
Paris Seminar — September 2023
Thomas Gatley, Didier Darcet, Cedric Gemehl, Louis-Vincent Gave
27 Sep 2023
At out latest seminar in Paris, the speakers discussed the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. They also examined what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Equity Investors Need More Convincing
Thomas Gatley
25 Sep 2023
China’s policy towards both the economy and markets has tilted materially more positive since late August, and recent economic data has beat expectations, but equity prices have continued to slide. Thomas argues that a sustained turnaround in stocks will require either much better growth outcomes, different policy settings, or both.
Featured report
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Financial Risk Report 2023
Xiaoxi Zhang
19 Sep 2023
China’s property-market correction and the resulting sluggish economic growth have intensified stresses on two of the biggest financial weak points: local-government financing vehicles and property developers. This chartbook assesses the financial risks emanating from those two groups of borrowers, and examines the likely impact in store for commercial banks, bond markets and other creditors.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Video: The Real State Of China's Economy
Christopher Beddor
The Struggle Over The Renminbi
Wei He
London Conference — September 2023
Research Team, Dragonomics Team
The Financial Risk Report 2023
Xiaoxi Zhang
Growth Momentum Stabilizes
Dragonomics Team
The Stealth Rescue Of Small Banks
Xiaoxi Zhang
Taking Stock Of Property-Policy Changes
Rosealea Yao
A Half-Hearted Fiscal Expansion
Wei He
Gavekal Dragonomics
Securing The Western Frontier
Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.
Policy and the cycle
Video: China's Inward Turn
On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.
China's Unexpected Rate-Cut Combo
On Monday, China surprised market participants with the second unexpected interest-rate decision in two weeks. Analysts had penciled in -15bp cuts to the benchmark lending rates this week. Instead, the one-year lending rate was lowered by only -10bp, and the five-year rate was kept unchanged. What is going on?
What China's Stimulus Means For Markets
China’s markets have perked up since late July, when the leadership signaled more support for the economy. But the government’s actions over the past week have generally underwhelmed, with more promises and rhetoric than substantive measures, and the risk-on trade has gone on pause. Caution remains advisable.
Stocks
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market
Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?
Bonds
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market
Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.
Technology
Video: China's Inward Turn
On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.
Coping With Semiconductor Containment
China’s semiconductor industry is coming to terms with an unpleasant reality: at this point, coordinated sanctions by the US and its allies have effectively blocked its path to making advanced chips. To cope with this technological containment, as Tilly explains in this piece, China is pursuing countermeasures on three fronts: reinforcing its existing market position, developing more bargaining chips and investing more in breakthrough technologies.
Internet Platforms Back In Favor
Chinese policymakers have clearly signaled through multiple recent statements that the crackdown on internet platforms is finally over. Thomas and Tilly argue that regulators now want the firms to bolster the labor market and drive technological development. But it remains unclear how much growth potential the sector has in the new regulatory normal.
Property
Video: The Real State Of China's Economy
After August’s panic about a possible economic implosion in China has died down, Christopher Beddor offers a sober assessment of the current outlook. Growth momentum appears to be stabilizing, and the authorities are easing real estate market policy. However, the financial weakness of developers continues to put strains on less visible parts of the financial sector.
Taking Stock Of Property-Policy Changes
China’s property policies have changed profoundly over the past two weeks. Rosealea argues that officials are now willing to tolerate more speculation in order to stabilize sales. But they have not yet abandoned the aim to reduce the economy’s reliance on property over the long term, meaning some aggressive stimulus options are still off the table.
A Q&A On China’s Mounting Troubles
In the last couple of weeks China’s economy has catapulted into global headlines, with legions of commentators warning of a potential financial and economic meltdown In this report, the Gavekal Dragonomics team cut through the hyperbole, tying together their recent research into a Q&A addressing the key questions about China’s economic trajectory.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Behind The Incredible Export Boom
Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.
Managing Covid
The Invisible Second Wave
Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
A Quicker Road To Reopening
Latest webinars
Webinar: After The China Shock
After a nasty deflationary shock, China's macro data have started to turn around at the margin. Yet markets remain unconvinced, with equities headed down and the currency still under pressure. Our China macro and markets experts will tackle these and other urgent questions about the outlook.
Webinar: Is A New Cycle Playing Out?
The global investment environment remains blighted by sustained inflationary pressure, tapped-out Western governments and a weakening Chinese economy. But tech stocks are again surging, this time on AI-fueled expectations. Anatole, Arthur and Louis pick through these dynamics to explain how these apparently conflicting trends may play out.
Webinar: Rescuing China's Recovery
China’s growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?