Most recent
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Invisible Barriers To Migration
Ernan Cui
26 May 2026
The State Council instructed local governments to expand public services to cover all local residents and remove barriers to serving those who do not have a local household registration. But Ernan argues that the document is more about codifying existing practices and advancing existing goals than implementing a major policy change, and practical changes to social services will likely happen only at the margin.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Reversal For Migrant Workers
Ernan Cui
21 May 2026
As China’s labor-market malaise enters its fifth year, the impact is becoming increasingly serious for the class of people who fill many low-wage jobs in cities: rural migrant workers. Ernan argues that as urban job opportunities evaporate, rural migrants are returning to the countryside in large numbers—and while the leadership is now expressing more concern for rural migrants, economic policy has not substantially shifted to prioritize job creation.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese
20 May 2026
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
Gavekal Dragonomics
An Uneasy US-China Understanding
Arthur Kroeber
19 May 2026
Last week’s summit in Beijing between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump was light on specifics but did convey a few useful directional signals. Arthur argues that the two leaders are committed to curbing the escalatory spiral of export controls and bringing more stability. But this is a very different world to that of the “Phase One” trade agreement of Trump’s first term, which was a litany of Chinese concessions; the new state amounts to an uneasy tactical stalemate.
Featured report
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Oil Shock Arrives
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
China’s Supporting Role In The AI Boom
Thomas Gatley
What To Expect From The Trump-Xi Summit
Arthur Kroeber
Video: Takeaways From The Beijing Auto Show
Ernan Cui
Webinar: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again?
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Simon Pritchard
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Foreign EV Makers Fight Back
Ernan Cui
False Hope For Infrastructure Investment
Wei He
Gavekal Dragonomics
Securing The Western Frontier
Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.
Policy and the cycle
The Downside Of Multiple Mandates
China’s central bank is once again erring on the side of caution. It is on track to reduce rates by much less in 2025 than first expected—expectations that the PBOC itself created with a formal shift in its monetary-policy stance. This is a frequent pattern for the PBOC, which typically moves rates much less than other central banks. In this piece, Wei argues that the PBOC’s ingrained caution is less a philosophical choice than an institutional constraint, stemming from its lack of independence and multiple mandates.
Next Up: Monetary Policy
Unless something changes radically in the next few days, China is facing a major growth shock from the US imposition of massive tariffs. The question now is how China’s government will respond to intensifying growth fears. Wei argues that the first step should be an easing of monetary policy, and possibly more direct intervention from the central bank in financial markets.
The PBOC’s Aggressive Governor
The People’s Bank of China has been busy over the past year as its new governor, Pan Gongsheng, has overseen multiple interventions in financial markets and attempted risky policy changes. Wei argues that Pan’s aggressive policymaking style, along with a green light from top policymakers for more easing, means the chances of a large interest-rate cut are rising.
Stocks
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market
Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?
Bonds
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market
Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.
Technology
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
Tech Demands Efficiency Over Equality
Last week, before China shut down for the celebration of the lunar new year, top leader Xi Jinping made one of his traditional local inspection tours. Rather unusually, he chose to do it in Beijing, emphasizing the capital’s contribution to the innovation drive. This choice reflects how Xi’s pursuit of high technology and manufacturing strength has led to a change in his thinking about China’s regional development.
Do Export Controls Work?
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
Property
Shanghai’s Stealth Mortgage-Rate Cut
China’s housing market continues to slump, but Shanghai is generating buzz because existing-home sales rose 11% YoY in March. One key reason is the local government’s decision in late February to raise the maximum amount that local homebuyers can borrow from the Housing Provident Fund—effectively cutting the average financing cost for certain homebuyers. Shanghai is not the only city to do so, and in this piece Xiaoxi assesses the impact on the national housing market.
The Property Bottom Is Not Yet Here
China’s policymakers appear unfazed by the continued housing-market decline, and contend that the market “has entered a bottoming phase.” Xiaoxi examines the evidence and finds the government’s argument uncompelling: with officials unlikely to provide much support and ongoing supply-demand imbalances in many cities, the property market will probably not bottom in 2026.
The Vanke Policy Whiplash
After the Shenzhen government abruptly reversed course on its partial bailout of China Vanke, the troubled developer’s bondholders convened on Wednesday to discuss its request for a repayment delay. Xiaoxi argues that the government’s approach to the company has been riddled with reversals because officials are struggling to balance conflicting policy goals for the property sector—and there may be more to come.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Behind The Incredible Export Boom
Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.
Managing Covid
The Chinese Consumer In 2023
The Invisible Second Wave
Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
Latest webinars
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
Webinar: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again?
US economic actions, on the face of it, threaten Europe’s strategic and economic wellbeing. The continent’s export industries have been roiled by the US president’s trade war, while the attack on Iran risks an inflationary surge as energy prices climb. At the same time, Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from the Atlantic alliance and has reduced support for Ukraine. Our panel addresses whether this new reality signals a death knell for the European integration project, or whether it is the catalyst Europe needs to rethink both its economic and strategic models.
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.