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Embrace China’s Reopening Rally

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Embrace China’s Reopening Rally

Thomas Gatley
5 Dec 2022
Investor sentiment on China has turned around rapidly in recent weeks, with the MSCI China up 28% in November and the CSI 300 up 11%. Now investors face the question whether to fade the rally, on the view that most of the good news is already in the price, or to embrace it, on the view that there is more upside than downside.
Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

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Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

Christopher Beddor
2 Dec 2022
China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.

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Webinar: Fiscal And Monetary Policy After The Midterms

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
2 Dec 2022
With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.

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Property Policy Gets More Direct

Xiaoxi Zhang
1 Dec 2022
Since mid-November, financial regulators have rolled out a series of measures designed to improve financing flows to property developers. Xiaoxi argues that these policies represent a clear shift towards more direct government support of the firms and away from earlier aspirations to use hands-off “market-oriented” means to resolve their troubles.

Featured report

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Housing & Construction Review 2022

Rosealea Yao
17 Nov 2022
China’s property market entered an unprecedented slump this year as lockdowns wrecked sales and property developers' financial distress triggered a crisis of confidence in the presales system. In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for the rest of 2022 and 2023. A modest recovery in housing sales and construction is likely, but the outlook is among the most uncertain in years.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Optimization Failure
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Ernan Cui
Beginning Of The End For Zero-Covid
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Christopher Beddor
The End Of China’s Bond Bull Run
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Wei He
Webinar: China’s Loss, India’s Gain
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Tom Miller, Udith Sikand
Covid Policy Descends Into Chaos
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Ernan Cui
A Respite In The Strategic Rivalry
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Dan Wang
Webinar: Europe's Winter Journey
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Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Housing & Construction Review 2022
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Rosealea Yao

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit
Beginning Of The End For Zero-Covid
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Playing The Policy Changes
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Rumors, Rhetoric And Reopening
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Video: Hong Kong's New Path
Video: Opening To What?