Most recent
Gavekal Dragonomics
China’s Supporting Role In The AI Boom
Thomas Gatley
15 May 2026
China’s exports are getting a new boost from the accelerating artificial-intelligence spending boom, in particular for the unsexy but necessary parts and components that go into building data centers. But Thomas argues that what makes this latest surge of exports different is that it is not adding to the trade surplus: China’s import bill for AI-related goods is rising at the same pace as its export receipts.
Gavekal Research
What To Expect From The Trump-Xi Summit
Arthur Kroeber
12 May 2026
Expectations are low for this week’s summit in Beijing between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The baseline scenario is that the two sides will reaffirm their ceasefire on technology and rare earth export controls, that China will agree to increase its purchases of American goods, and that the US sets up a “Board of Trade” to make sure those purchase commitments are met. There is no grand bargain in the offing, but Arthur argues there is potential for progress in a couple of areas that would signal a deeper shift in the relationship.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Video: Takeaways From The Beijing Auto Show
Ernan Cui
8 May 2026
Chinese and global automakers showed off their latest electric vehicles at this year’s Beijing Auto Show, which wrapped on May 3. There are many impressive new Chinese EVs, but the latest models of some of the global automakers are just as innovative and cheap. Ernan Cui argues that after falling behind their Chinese rivals, some of the global auto brands have found ways to both improve their EV tech and lower prices—though that involves some costly trade-offs.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again?
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Simon Pritchard
8 May 2026
US economic actions, on the face of it, threaten Europe’s strategic and economic wellbeing. The continent’s export industries have been roiled by the US president’s trade war, while the attack on Iran risks an inflationary surge as energy prices climb. At the same time, Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from the Atlantic alliance and has reduced support for Ukraine. Our panel addresses whether this new reality signals a death knell for the European integration project, or whether it is the catalyst Europe needs to rethink both its economic and strategic models.
Featured report
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
7 May 2026
China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Foreign EV Makers Fight Back
Ernan Cui
False Hope For Infrastructure Investment
Wei He
Beijing Conference: April 2026
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis-Vincent Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Will Denyer, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Xiaoxi Zhang, Laila Khawaja
Shanghai’s Stealth Mortgage-Rate Cut
Xiaoxi Zhang
Why Corporate Margins Will Take A Hit
Thomas Gatley
The Promise Of A Services Opening
Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor
The Demand Divergence Deepens
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Gavekal Dragonomics
Securing The Western Frontier
Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.
Policy and the cycle
The Downside Of Multiple Mandates
China’s central bank is once again erring on the side of caution. It is on track to reduce rates by much less in 2025 than first expected—expectations that the PBOC itself created with a formal shift in its monetary-policy stance. This is a frequent pattern for the PBOC, which typically moves rates much less than other central banks. In this piece, Wei argues that the PBOC’s ingrained caution is less a philosophical choice than an institutional constraint, stemming from its lack of independence and multiple mandates.
Next Up: Monetary Policy
Unless something changes radically in the next few days, China is facing a major growth shock from the US imposition of massive tariffs. The question now is how China’s government will respond to intensifying growth fears. Wei argues that the first step should be an easing of monetary policy, and possibly more direct intervention from the central bank in financial markets.
The PBOC’s Aggressive Governor
The People’s Bank of China has been busy over the past year as its new governor, Pan Gongsheng, has overseen multiple interventions in financial markets and attempted risky policy changes. Wei argues that Pan’s aggressive policymaking style, along with a green light from top policymakers for more easing, means the chances of a large interest-rate cut are rising.
Stocks
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market
Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?
Bonds
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market
Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.
Technology
Tech Demands Efficiency Over Equality
Last week, before China shut down for the celebration of the lunar new year, top leader Xi Jinping made one of his traditional local inspection tours. Rather unusually, he chose to do it in Beijing, emphasizing the capital’s contribution to the innovation drive. This choice reflects how Xi’s pursuit of high technology and manufacturing strength has led to a change in his thinking about China’s regional development.
Do Export Controls Work?
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
What’s New In The Plan For Tech
Top leader Xi Jinping has decided that promoting technology and modernizing industry will continue to be the top priorities in China’s next five-year plan, as they are in the current plan. But as Tilly explains in this piece, that doesn’t mean China is simply doubling down on its existing industrial policy. There are important changes in priorities and strategies: a greater focus on commercializing products to drive growth, and a stronger role for central government coordination.
Property
Shanghai’s Stealth Mortgage-Rate Cut
China’s housing market continues to slump, but Shanghai is generating buzz because existing-home sales rose 11% YoY in March. One key reason is the local government’s decision in late February to raise the maximum amount that local homebuyers can borrow from the Housing Provident Fund—effectively cutting the average financing cost for certain homebuyers. Shanghai is not the only city to do so, and in this piece Xiaoxi assesses the impact on the national housing market.
The Property Bottom Is Not Yet Here
China’s policymakers appear unfazed by the continued housing-market decline, and contend that the market “has entered a bottoming phase.” Xiaoxi examines the evidence and finds the government’s argument uncompelling: with officials unlikely to provide much support and ongoing supply-demand imbalances in many cities, the property market will probably not bottom in 2026.
The Vanke Policy Whiplash
After the Shenzhen government abruptly reversed course on its partial bailout of China Vanke, the troubled developer’s bondholders convened on Wednesday to discuss its request for a repayment delay. Xiaoxi argues that the government’s approach to the company has been riddled with reversals because officials are struggling to balance conflicting policy goals for the property sector—and there may be more to come.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Behind The Incredible Export Boom
Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.
Managing Covid
The Chinese Consumer In 2023
The Invisible Second Wave
Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
Latest webinars
Webinar: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again?
US economic actions, on the face of it, threaten Europe’s strategic and economic wellbeing. The continent’s export industries have been roiled by the US president’s trade war, while the attack on Iran risks an inflationary surge as energy prices climb. At the same time, Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from the Atlantic alliance and has reduced support for Ukraine. Our panel addresses whether this new reality signals a death knell for the European integration project, or whether it is the catalyst Europe needs to rethink both its economic and strategic models.
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
Webinar: The War And Markets
Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.