Gavekal Dragonomics

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Webinar: After The China Shock

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Webinar: After The China Shock

Thomas Gatley, Wei He
29 Sep 2023
After a nasty deflationary shock, China's macro data have started to turn around at the margin. Yet markets remain unconvinced, with equities headed down and the currency still under pressure. Our China macro and markets experts will tackle these and other urgent questions about the outlook.
Car Exports Have Two Engines

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Car Exports Have Two Engines

Andrew Batson
28 Sep 2023
China’s sudden emergence as the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars is one of the biggest changes in global trade in decades. Its exports of electric vehicles have gotten most of the attention, but there is another driver that is just as large: its shipments of internal-combustion engine cars. These are booming as Chinese carmakers try to find new markets for vehicles that are getting harder to sell domestically. This will increasingly look like dumping, and could drive a new round of trade tensions.

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Paris Seminar — September 2023

Thomas Gatley, Didier Darcet, Cedric Gemehl, Louis-Vincent Gave
27 Sep 2023
At out latest seminar in Paris, the speakers discussed the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. They also examined what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.

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Equity Investors Need More Convincing

Thomas Gatley
25 Sep 2023
China’s policy towards both the economy and markets has tilted materially more positive since late August, and recent economic data has beat expectations, but equity prices have continued to slide. Thomas argues that a sustained turnaround in stocks will require either much better growth outcomes, different policy settings, or both.

Featured report

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The Financial Risk Report 2023

Xiaoxi Zhang
19 Sep 2023
China’s property-market correction and the resulting sluggish economic growth have intensified stresses on two of the biggest financial weak points: local-government financing vehicles and property developers. This chartbook assesses the financial risks emanating from those two groups of borrowers, and examines the likely impact in store for commercial banks, bond markets and other creditors.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Video: The Real State Of China's Economy
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Christopher Beddor
The Struggle Over The Renminbi
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Wei He
London Conference — September 2023
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Research Team, Dragonomics Team
The Financial Risk Report 2023
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Xiaoxi Zhang
Growth Momentum Stabilizes
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Dragonomics Team
The Stealth Rescue Of Small Banks
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Xiaoxi Zhang
Taking Stock Of Property-Policy Changes
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Rosealea Yao
A Half-Hearted Fiscal Expansion
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Wei He

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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A Quicker Road To Reopening
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