Videos

In this interview, Udith discusses the story behind the numbers of India’s latest GDP release and offers his views on the monetary environment for the rest of the year and what this means for Indian asset markets.

The business environment in China has changed markedly over the past few years. On a recent trip to Beijing and Shanghai, Tom met foreign executives who lament the changed environment yet still crave access to China’s huge market. He also ran into domestic firms that thrived in recent decades but are struggling to turn a profit in an economy being directed at self-sufficiency. Yet for those who are on the right side of change in China’s big cities, he says they can benefit from cheap living costs and a good quality of life.

Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates—on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade—examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.

In markets, this year has been dominated by artificial intelligence. Nearly a decade ago, the hyped-up tech de jour was autonomous vehicles. Now it appears as if years of testing and development are starting to bear fruit. Will recently took his first robo-taxi ride in San Francisco and in this interview he examines the state of the technology, the scale of the rollout and who stands to benefit, or lose, from mass market adoption.

Usually when developed market volatility spikes, the world’s emerging markets fall victim to collateral damage. Things have been less simple this time around. Although Latin American currencies, especially the Mexican peso, have been hit hard by the unwinding of the yen carry trade, East Asian currencies have risen strongly. Udith Sikand explores what lies behind the divergence.

On the eve of the Paris Olympics, France’s political class has taken a welcome break from trying to resolve the parliamentary dilemma thrown by a deeply divided electorate. In this video, Cedric discusses the state of France and whether its economy can expect to benefit from an Olympic bounce to chase away the summer blues.

A new spirit of mercantilism is abroad in the US, with Donald Trump’s Republican Party proposing a “baseline tariff” on all goods imports, as well as targeted higher tariffs on imports from China, should it capture the White House in November’s election. In this interview, Yanmei assesses what this means.

Two months ago, Kai Xian made a cautiously bullish call on the US housing market, as a downturn in activity had looked to be bottoming out. In the intervening period, however, conditions for US homebuilders continued to worsen. In this interview, he explains what happened and what he expects to happen next.

Over the past month, the frequency, intensity and severity of clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah has ramped up on the Israel-Lebanon border. That may already have been responsible for pushing the oil price higher. In this interview, Yanmei assesses the forces of escalation against the strength of the guardrails that have kept the conflict fairly contained so far.

The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.

China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.

France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.