Videos

Interviews

Video: Return Of Europe's National Victims?

Video: Return Of Europe's National Victims?

19 Jun 2024
The surprise election announcement by French president Emmanuel Macron last week was followed by market turmoil as investors priced in greater political uncertainty in France. Setting the politics aside for a moment, Cedric assesses the new environment for equities and bonds, and invokes the old Gavekal concept of “national victims” to chart the potential outcomes for listed companies exposed to the French market or who operate in heavily regulated sectors.
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Video: Punitive Tariffs Or Towards A New Plaza Accord?

Video: Punitive Tariffs Or Towards A New Plaza Accord?

12 Jun 2024
As the European Union slaps punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, Louis ponders the problem with the developed world’s responses so far to China’s rapid climb up the global value curve: they are all inflationary for developed-economy consumers. One—admittedly speculative—alternative would be a new Plaza Accord. That would depend on a change of political direction in the US, but the implications for financial markets would be earthshaking.
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Video: Aramco, Oil And Saudi's Economic Transition

Video: Aramco, Oil And Saudi's Economic Transition

7 Jun 2024
Saudi Arabia’s US$11bn follow-on offering for oil giant Aramco follows a spate of Saudi sovereign issues this year in domestic and international debt markets. Nevertheless, talk that Riyadh is facing a mounting fiscal squeeze as it attempts to fund a list of expensive mega-projects as part of an unrealistic economic transition program are exaggerated.
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Video: Riding The Mexican Wave

Video: Riding The Mexican Wave

30 May 2024
Mexicans go to the polls this Sunday to elect a new president after several years in which the Mexican economy has benefited from the realignment of global supply chains. Fresh back from a trip to Mexico’s China-invested factory lands, Tom Miller assesses how the new president will endeavor to attract fresh inward investment while navigating mounting criticism from Washington that Mexico is acting as a back door into the US for unfairly underpriced Chinese goods.
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Video: Evaluating China's Property Rescue

Video: Evaluating China's Property Rescue

23 May 2024
China’s policymakers announced several new property policies last week, including a call for local governments to buy back residential land from developers and purchase housing inventories for conversion into affordable homes. Christopher examines this latest attempt to bolster the ailing property sector and evaluates whether it might succeed where earlier efforts have failed.
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Video: The Economics Of A No-Limits Partnership

Video: The Economics Of A No-Limits Partnership

16 May 2024
Vladimir Putin visited Beijing this week a few weeks after senior US officials were in town to berate Chinese policymakers over their alleged supply of “dual-use” products to Russia. Chinese sales of machine tools, industrial widgets and microchips are reportedly key to Russia’s reinvigorated weapons production program but Xi Jinping is likely to preside over a relatively cautious approach to the trade.
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Video: The Data Center Constraint

Video: The Data Center Constraint

10 May 2024
Data centers are emerging as massive users of electricity that power-producers in many economies are struggling to serve. Data centers are also large-scale users of water, which is a scarce resource in many regions. In this video, Kai Xian discusses whether such constraints will impede the rollout of AI applications and thus hinder the hoped-for productivity improvement they promise to deliver.
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Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

2 May 2024
A sharp strengthening of the yen late Wednesday suggested the Bank of Japan was again intervening in the foreign exchange market after it spent an estimated US$35bn to counter yen weakness on Monday. In this video interview, Udith Sikand examines the currency market dynamics to gauge the likely effectiveness of the Japanese authorities’ campaign to limit further yen weakness.
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Video: The Problem With France

Video: The Problem With France

26 Apr 2024
France’s government debt readings keep going from bad to worse, yet sovereign bond investors do not seem to be punishing policymakers for their spendthrift ways. In this video, Cedric explores different political scenarios that could upset the French apple cart.
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Video: Wading Into The South China Sea

Video: Wading Into The South China Sea

18 Apr 2024
As confrontations have flared between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, US president Joe Biden has declared an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ defense in a trilateral security pact along with Japan. Gavekal geopolitical risk analyst Yanmei Xie delves into the background of the tensions, and assesses the potential for future clashes drawing in US forces in the region.
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Events

Webinar: Will The Real India Please Stand Up?

Webinar: Will The Real India Please Stand Up?

13 Jun 2024
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.
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Webinar: The Return Of Goldilocks? Or Trump?

Webinar: The Return Of Goldilocks? Or Trump?

31 May 2024
After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.
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Webinar: Will China Change The Global Monetary System… And How?

Webinar: Will China Change The Global Monetary System… And How?

23 May 2024
Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.
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Webinar: Currency Stresses

Webinar: Currency Stresses

16 May 2024
The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.
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Webinar: China's Property Puzzle

Webinar: China's Property Puzzle

3 May 2024
China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.
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Webinar: Into The Upswing

Webinar: Into The Upswing

25 Apr 2024
In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.
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Webinar: Forward To The 1970s? Investing For An Inflationary Age

Webinar: Forward To The 1970s? Investing For An Inflationary Age

18 Apr 2024
With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.
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Webinar: The Coming Age Of Protectionism

Webinar: The Coming Age Of Protectionism

4 Apr 2024
This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.
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Webinar: Animal Spirits In The Emerging Markets

Webinar: Animal Spirits In The Emerging Markets

22 Mar 2024
While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.
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Webinar: Asset Allocation For The Ages

Webinar: Asset Allocation For The Ages

8 Mar 2024
In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.
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