Videos

Interviews

Video: Good News And Bad For Reindustrialization

Video: Good News And Bad For Reindustrialization

31 Oct 2024
Enthusiasts for the revitalization of US manufacturing have been heartened by recent news that TSMC’s Arizona chip fabrication plant is delivering higher production yields than the company’s fabs back home in Taiwan. This appears to be good news for the competitiveness of US manufacturing. But digging beneath the surface, Tilly and KX find things are less simple.
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Video: The State Of China's Stimulus

Video: The State Of China's Stimulus

24 Oct 2024
Since the Chinese Politburo’s pivot towards stimulus in late September, almost every one of the government’s major economic agencies has held a press conference on the measures it is taking to support growth. In this interview, Christopher assesses the likely impact of initiatives to bail out local governments, recapitalize banks, encourage property sales, support demand and juice up the equity market. And he tells us what to watch out for next.
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Video: Industrialists Against Economists

Video: Industrialists Against Economists

17 Oct 2024
Fresh back from kicking the policy tires in Washington and Brussels, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Yanmei Xie describes two economies in which policymakers are grappling with how to live and thrive in the same world as an ever more competitive China.
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Video: The ECB Reaction To A New Era

Video: The ECB Reaction To A New Era

10 Oct 2024
Ahead of next Thursday’s policy meeting of the European Central Bank, the market is betting heavily on an interest rate cut. In this video interview, Cedric argues that the market is probably right in its view but cautions that risks are titled towards hawkish surprises as this economic backdrop does not presage a return to the disinflationary environment seen in the pre-pandemic years.
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Video: The US Political Economy Of Inflation

Video: The US Political Economy Of Inflation

2 Oct 2024
The issue of inflation is figuring heavily in the US presidential campaign and was the subject of debate between the vice president candidates on Wednesday. In this video interview, Will addresses the political economy of inflation in late 2024 in the US and suggests ways that investors should think about the reaction function of policymakers.
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Video: The Market Story Of Modi 3.0

Video: The Market Story Of Modi 3.0

27 Sep 2024
Indian equities have surged to new highs in recent months. That is perhaps surprising given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is increasingly constrained in its legislative agenda. Udith, however, argues that despite international investors warming up to China’s improved market prospects, India's equity rally should be sustained since Indian investors stand ready to fill any gaps left by departing foreign institutions.
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Video: Beyond The Slide In Energy Prices

Video: Beyond The Slide In Energy Prices

11 Sep 2024
In the last two months, oil prices have slumped -20%, with the international Brent crude benchmark falling to a shade above US$70/bbl and energy names underperforming broader US equity indexes. Louis examines the reasons behind the recent slide and assesses the near and long-term supply-demand pictures in energy markets.
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Video: India Still A Bright Spot

Video: India Still A Bright Spot

5 Sep 2024
In this interview, Udith discusses the story behind the numbers of India’s latest GDP release and offers his views on the monetary environment for the rest of the year and what this means for Indian asset markets.
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Video: Animal Spirits In China

Video: Animal Spirits In China

29 Aug 2024
The business environment in China has changed markedly over the past few years. On a recent trip to Beijing and Shanghai, Tom met foreign executives who lament the changed environment yet still crave access to China’s huge market. He also ran into domestic firms that thrived in recent decades but are struggling to turn a profit in an economy being directed at self-sufficiency. Yet for those who are on the right side of change in China’s big cities, he says they can benefit from cheap living costs and a good quality of life.
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Video: Promises And Policies

Video: Promises And Policies

23 Aug 2024
Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates—on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade—examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.
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Events

Webinar: Pricing The Election Outcome

Webinar: Pricing The Election Outcome

1 Nov 2024
Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.
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Webinar: Testing The Reflation Hypothesis

Webinar: Testing The Reflation Hypothesis

18 Oct 2024
A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.
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Webinar: What Chinese Stimulus Means For China And The World

Webinar: What Chinese Stimulus Means For China And The World

3 Oct 2024
Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.
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London Conference, September 2024

London Conference, September 2024

30 Sep 2024
At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.
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Webinar: Charting China’s Course

Webinar: Charting China’s Course

20 Sep 2024
The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.
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Webinar: Mapping US Outcomes

Webinar: Mapping US Outcomes

6 Sep 2024
In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.
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Webinar: Navigating The Markets' Summer Storm

Webinar: Navigating The Markets' Summer Storm

8 Aug 2024
Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.
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Webinar: Setting The Agenda For China's Plenum

Webinar: Setting The Agenda For China's Plenum

12 Jul 2024
China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.
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Webinar: France On The Brink?

Webinar: France On The Brink?

28 Jun 2024
France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.
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Webinar: Will The Real India Please Stand Up?

Webinar: Will The Real India Please Stand Up?

13 Jun 2024
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.
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