Videos

The US equity market, and the Magnificent Seven in particular, have benefited from AI excitement and a perception that the US is the unambiguous leader in this technological race. Then came the DeepSeek release which has challenged those basic assumptions. In order to think through the sector’s competitive dynamics, Will says it is useful to break the market down into the makers of AI applications and users of them.

Marco Rubio is the first US Secretary of State since 1912 to initiate his term in office with a multi-country tour of Latin America. For the most part, he did not come bearing gifts, but wielded a large stick as the new Trump administration seeks to achieve its policy aims of halting illegal migration and the flow of drugs across its southern border, while also countering Chinese influence in the region. In this video, Tom argues why it will be hard for the US to foster a powerful neo-Monroe doctrine beyond its immediate backyard.

The release by Chinese company DeepSeek of a new AI large language model comparable with models from US industry leaders like OpenAI or Anthropic has called into question many of the assumptions that have powered the bull market in US tech stocks. Louis looks at how DeepSeek developed its model and considers the effects on the US and Chinese investment environments.

Donald Trump’s decision not to slap first-day tariffs on countries that run that run large trade surpluses with the US does not mean the new president has cooled on the idea. Moreover, his failure to issue any executive orders favoring the crypto-currency business, which greatly disappointed enthusiasts, does not mean the new administration won’t be sympathetic in its regulation of crypto markets.

International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.

Michael Barr is stepping down from his role as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision earlier than expected. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses what this move signifies about Fed independence in the upcoming Trump administration and what is likely to be the shape of US regulation.

Over the last 18 months, eurozone bank stocks have outperformed the broad market by a factor of three. But since the US presidential election, they have given back some of those gains. In this video interview, Cedric examines what has driven the bull run in European bank stocks to determine whether the rally has now reached its end, or whether it has further to run.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.

This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.

While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.

In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.

So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.

A soft-landing scenario looks to be playing out in the US, with inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and growth humming along. Across the pond, the eurozone seems to be headed the same way, albeit with lower growth. Our team of specialists asked if such an “immaculate disinflation” is possible on both sides of the Atlantic and explored what it means for relative monetary policy settings and asset price performance.