Videos

Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.

Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.

Fresh back from a tour of Southeast Asia, Tom Miller offers a study in contrasts between Vietnam and Indonesia. While both have new leaders each a year into his term and each promising economic reform, the two countries’ economic trajectories are starkly different. Tom provides some notes from the road.

France’s latest prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, has survived two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly. But his victory has come at a cost. In this interview, Cedric Gemehl charts the political currents in the run-up to France’s 2027 presidential election and examines why French financial markets have remained relatively calm amid all the political turbulence.

As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out. In this video interview, Will adopts a macro analysis to the question of whether the artificial intelligence boom has broadened into a bubble and, if so, how exposed investors might be to a rupture.

As part of their tariff deals with the US administration of Donald Trump, Asian countries promised to invest vast sums of capital in the US economy, with South Korea pledging US$350bn, while Japan committed to invest US$550bn. Udith discusses whether these investment commitments are realistic, how they might be structured, their potential impact on financial markets and whether failure to deliver could jeopardize the underlying deals on bilateral trade.

Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference. In this week’s interview, Gavekal European economist Cedric Gemehl assesses the vulnerability of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in an age of rising political populism.

The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel. In this interview, Will discusses what all this means for near-term interest rate setting and for governance at the central bank in the longer term.

With France now on its fifth prime minister in two years, and protesters aiming to block the streets of French cities, commentators are increasingly asserting that France—and more broadly Europe—is now ungovernable. That may be overstating the case. But as Charles Gave points out in this video interview, with debt now rising faster than GDP in a number of major European economies, the continent is heading into a nasty debt trap.

Wednesday’s grand military parade through Beijing and the earlier Tianjin summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted by Xi Jinping and attended by both Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin, have emphasized the growth of economic partnerships on the Eurasian landmass in defiance of the established US-led international order. In this video interview, Tom Miller assesses the depth of India’s diplomatic reengagement with China, and considers the economic implications of the strengthening Eurasian relations.

If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.

Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.

European policymakers face the biggest strategic upheaval since World War II and a potential trans-Atlantic trade war for good measure. On the plus side for those with a Keynesian bent, the European Union may be spurred to cast off self-imposed fiscal rules which have constrained its performance over the last 15 years. In this webinar, Anatole and Cedric assess the choices that Europe faces and what different outcomes will mean for growth and markets.

Technological optimism seems to be doing what macroeconomic policy could not: change foreign investors’ minds about China. At the same time the nascent rebound in the property market is at risk of stalling out amid a policy vacuum. And signals of greater comity between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have not prevented the escalation of US tariffs on China. In this webinar, our China team assesses the conflicting signals for the outlook for 2025.

DeepSeek stunned the world with the release of two new AI models with performance comparable to models from the US market leaders, but which the Chinese company developed at a fraction of the cost and with less powerful chips. Tilly Zhang, Gavekal’s technology analyst, founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave and US economist Will Denyer assessed the extent of DeepSeek’s achievement and examined what it means for China’s AI development, US export controls, and the future of the US tech stock bull market.

All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.

Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.