Videos

After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.

India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.

Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.

With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.

Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.

December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.

In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.

Another fight over the American debt ceiling is brewing in Washington, D.C. It is hard to think that the US government debt-ceiling standoff will not be settled but in the meantime, this could materially impact US liquidity conditions over the coming six months.

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised hackles in the European Union, where politicians complain that US green subsidies unfairly tilt the playing field to the disadvantage of European companies. The dispute threatens to jeopardize US efforts to enlist European support for Washington’s economic confrontation with China.

China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.

Will the fall of the US dollar over the last quarter of 2022 continue in 2023? What does China’s reopening mean for asset markets? For commodities demand? And for global inflation? And what is the outlook for OECD bonds? In this webinar Louis tackles the big questions head-on, and expands on his key investment themes for the year ahead.

China’s reopening from Covid containment is already well under way, and looks likely to be fast and messy. In this webinar members of our China team assessed the outlook next year for monetary and fiscal policy, capital markets and the country’s ailing property sector.

Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.

With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.

India's stock market has been one of the best performing in Asia this year, and the country is also benefiting from contract tech manufacturers starting to redirect direct investment from China. The question for the Indian economy is whether domestic companies follow suit and help to initiate a new investment cycle.

Although Europe has a decent chance at escaping painful energy rationing this winter, higher energy prices have already hurt growth, while inflation has become entrenched across much of the economy. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weighed the forces driving European growth and inflation, and assessed the outlook for financial markets.

As the global economy shifts down a gear and the Federal Reserve continues to turn the screws on inflation, Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for investors in a run-in to the year-end which looks like it may not be pretty.

The US economy is approaching recession territory, while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten liquidity conditions. Add in political uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections and this is a testing moment to be managing a portfolio. In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian offered suggestions on where to seek shelter from the storm.

Where will Xi Jinping take China after the conclusion of the Party Congress? In this webinar, our China team assessed what we learned, and what we didn't, from the most important event in the Communist Party's political calendar. They decoded the signals on politics and policy, explored the implications of the new leadership team, and analyzed the next evolution of Covid strategy.

In our London seminar, Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for global markets, Cedric Gemehl updated his view on Europe, Tom Miller considered the effects of China's National Party Congress and Charles Gave considered the possibility that this time really could be different.