Videos

European members of Nato just agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump? Cedric argues in this interview that Europe’s moves should be taken seriously as it fits into a new European Union consensus that the group must become self-sufficient, whether in terms of defense, or generating economic growth. He explains what this could mean for EU deepening measures and how it may influence Europe’s investment outlook.

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.

Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.

Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.

Europe’s construction sector has struggled in recent years due to cyclical weakness and the high cost of money stemming from the post-pandemic inflation outbreak. However, as August argues in this video, the green shoots of recovery are already being seen in public sector projects, and this could be spreading to private sector building activity.

Political risk is once again rearing its head in France. With the new leader of the Republicans pushing to the right, and with a new leader of the Socialists likely to track to the left, the minority coalition of prime minister François Bayrou is looking less secure. With the next round of budget negotiations this fall a probable crunch point, Cedric Gemehl examines the forces at work and assesses the risks for French debt and equity markets.

Critics of the Trump administration point to a golden era of corruption emerging in the crypto-currency space, while even supporters are becoming irritated that Trump family dealings are slowing up the passage of enabling legislation that will deepen and broaden the crypto market. In this video interview, Will explores these developments and argues the US government will eventually pass stablecoin legislation.

Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In this video interview, Tom looks at the game-theory calculus that prompted Opec+ to increase production into a soft market, and at what will drive the oil price over the remainder of 2025.

In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.

Argentina recently loosened capital controls and floated its currency in a bid to rejoin global capital markets. Under Javier Milei, the country has been engaged in a radical free market experiment for the last 16 months, as it seeks to conquer inflation and stabilize the economy. Tom recently returned from a research trip to Argentina, and in this interview discusses how the Milei project is going and whether it is replicable elsewhere in Latin America.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.

Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.

China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.

France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.