Videos

The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. In this week’s interview, Kai Xian examines what this might portend for interest rates and the performance of US equities through the rest of 2025 and into next year.

With €3trn in assets, Europe’s pension funds are investment giants. But they have long been lumbering and risk-averse giants. Now, Cedric Gemehl argues, they are about to discover a new-found appetite for risky assets, and that at the margin this shift will favor European equities over US equities and European government bonds.

In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago. Udith unpacks how these framework arrangements are shaping Asia’s macro environment—and what they could mean for markets, particularly the potential for a coordinated regional interest rate easing cycle.

The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling. In this video interview, Kai Xian reviews the economic drivers for US housing and asks what could lead to a turnaround.

The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.” In this week’s interview, Tom Miller examines whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assesses the group’s progress towards dedollarization.

So far in 2025, the US labor market has been a case of “not too hot, not too cold.” Although trade war uncertainties have muted some hiring plans, the job openings and employment data have given no reasons to expect a marked softening in the economy. KX assesses the how the labor market is likely to develop from here.

European members of Nato just agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump? Cedric argues in this interview that Europe’s moves should be taken seriously as it fits into a new European Union consensus that the group must become self-sufficient, whether in terms of defense, or generating economic growth. He explains what this could mean for EU deepening measures and how it may influence Europe’s investment outlook.

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.

Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.

Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.

Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.

Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.