Videos

The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.

As other formerly hot asset classes have rolled over, gold has continued to advance through February and March, setting a new record high above US$3,050/oz. In this video, Gavekal founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave examines the fundamental drivers of gold’s rally, considers the metal’s valuation, and asks whether the run-up can continue.

It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.

The last time that the US and China got embroiled in a trade war, Chinese equities badly underperformed. Since January, however, Chinese equities have performed strongly, while their US counterparts have entered into correction territory. In this video interview, Thomas explains the cyclical and structural factors behind this trend.

Incredulity and outrage have greeted Donald Trump’s mooted Gaza redevelopment plan across the Arab world. Just back from a research trip to Egypt, Gavekal senior analyst Tom Miller discusses the Arab states’ rival proposals for Gaza, touches on how US policy has affected America’s standing in the region, and looks at how the developments of the last few years have affected Egypt’s own economic prospects.

On the surface Hong Kong and Singapore might seem similar. But while Hong Kong is uncomfortably exposed to trade war escalation, Singapore is relatively immune from the threat of tariffs. And while Singapore’s equity market has registered a respectable, if uninspiring, performance over the past 12 months, the Hong Kong market has recovered its animal spirits. Udith looks at what lies behind these partings of the way.

The United States has announced a series of new tariff initiatives on trading partners but not implemented many of them, pending reports by officials and negotiations with other countries. The market’s interpretation seems to be that this is a performative action by President Donald Trump that establishes his dominance among leaders but points to a trade war being averted. Arthur unpicks this proposition and cautions that investors may be underestimating the inflationary impact of what is likely to follow.

The US equity market, and the Magnificent Seven in particular, have benefited from AI excitement and a perception that the US is the unambiguous leader in this technological race. Then came the DeepSeek release which has challenged those basic assumptions. In order to think through the sector’s competitive dynamics, Will says it is useful to break the market down into the makers of AI applications and users of them.

Marco Rubio is the first US Secretary of State since 1912 to initiate his term in office with a multi-country tour of Latin America. For the most part, he did not come bearing gifts, but wielded a large stick as the new Trump administration seeks to achieve its policy aims of halting illegal migration and the flow of drugs across its southern border, while also countering Chinese influence in the region. In this video, Tom argues why it will be hard for the US to foster a powerful neo-Monroe doctrine beyond its immediate backyard.

The release by Chinese company DeepSeek of a new AI large language model comparable with models from US industry leaders like OpenAI or Anthropic has called into question many of the assumptions that have powered the bull market in US tech stocks. Louis looks at how DeepSeek developed its model and considers the effects on the US and Chinese investment environments.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.

China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.

France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.