Videos

After the average US pump price for diesel topped US$6.50 per gallon, politicians are increasingly calling for restrictions on US fuel exports in a bid to bring down prices for businesses and consumers ahead of November’s midterm elections. But while export controls might provide some temporary relief, any reduction in US prices will be short-lived, and will come at the cost of intense pain among US trading partners.

So far this decade, US treasuries have delivered no returns whilst European government bonds have delivered negative returns. Japanese government bonds have been an unmitigated disaster. The one major government bond market that did deliver positive returns has been China’s .Following a dismal five years, is it time to return to OECD government bonds?

The Alternative für Deutschland’s record 44% showing in Saxony-Anhalt has made global headlines, but German equities, bonds and the euro have barely reacted. In this interview, Cedric explains why the near-term economic and financial implications are likely to be limited and why the result should be seen more as a political signal than a template for Germany as a whole. Longer term, however, the AfD’s growing momentum in Europe’s largest economy deserves attention, particularly if Germany’s political firewall against the party begins to weaken.

In the last few years, investors have generally done well to minimize their exposure to long-dated US treasuries. But now, with the 10-year US treasury yield up almost 430bp in the last six years and the US Treasury itself buying back long-dated debt, it makes sense to ask whether investors should reassess their stance on bond market duration.

The Trump administration seems to be entering a new phase of economic coercion, as tariffs, secondary sanctions and tighter trade enforcement increasingly work together. In this video interview, Tom considers the latest tariff moves against Canada and Brazil, the legal status of the broader US tariff regime and the looming crackdown on illegal transshipments through countries integrated into Chinese supply chains. He assesses whether these measures are setting the stage for a renewed escalation of the US-China trade war.

China’s industrial-policy support for domestic companies has raised hackles abroad, prompting allegations of unfair competition and excess capacity—and in turn rebuttals from Beijing. But what do listed-company data reveal about such government aid? In this video, Thomas explains how much state support the firms receive, how it is changing and why it relates to the recent string of blockbuster IPOs.

China’s arrival as a serious AI competitor threatens to upend an investment boom so far dominated by a small group of mostly US and allied companies. Chinese labs are already producing frontier-level models despite restricted access to advanced chips, while a determined push to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain could eventually challenge the incumbents in AI hardware. Will considers the winners and losers from the disruption.

China’s economy slowed again in the second quarter, with little sign of domestic demand picking up. While traveling around China, Tom Miller found packed trains and tourist towns, but also complaints about low spending. For many, quality of life now appears to trump making money. Still, competition to provide goods and services remains brutal. And China’s high-tech economy keeps surging ahead, with monasteries in the mountains of Sichuan now receiving deliveries by drone.

With the US-Iran war now five months old, and with no negotiated peace in sight, energy-importing economies must face up to the prospect that supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter approaches. With the European Union’s stores of natural gas already unusually depleted for the time of year, Tom Holland considers the possible consequences for Europe’s economies.

The Indian rupee has remained under pressure despite a series of measures, including offering overseas Indians highly attractive deposits in exchange for locking funds into the currency. In this interview, Udith examines why those efforts have so far failed to reverse the rupee’s weakness and assesses the broader macroeconomic trade-offs. He also discusses the htreats to India’s macroeconomic outlook and what this means for investors expecting a turnaround in the rupee.

As presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their summit meeting in Washington, China’s fast-growing technology capabilities are a major topic. The big questions at the moment are how close Chinese artificial-intelligence labs are to matching the US frontier models, and whether the two sides can start negotiating rules on AI safety. But behind those lie even bigger questions: What is the balance of technological power between the US and China? And how far can the world's two big tech powers go in pulling apart the thick webs of interdependence that tie them together?

Global markets are being roiled by geopolitical tensions, rising bond yields and uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. At the same time, the AI boom and shifting trade and capital flows are reshaping the global economic and investment landscape. In our first webinar of the autumn season, Gavekal’s founding partners discuss what these crosscurrents mean for markets and how investors should position their portfolios.

Markets continue to behave as if the world has not fundamentally changed, even as inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and global capital flows enter a new regime. Anatole argues that investors are systematically mispricing four major shifts: the long-term outlook for inflation and bond yields, the global growth cycle, the rotation from AI-led growth to cyclical value and the end of US exceptionalism.

The arrival of a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to materially reshape the investment environment that has prevailed since February 28. Against a backdrop of artificial intelligence companies seeking to raise massive amounts of capital from investors, Louis and Anatole convene a conversation to explore what comes next.

Away from the uncertainties surrounding the Middle East, and the excitement surrounding all things artificial intelligence, Latin American debt and equity markets continue the bull market that started a couple of years ago. Obviously, rising commodity prices help. But the real driver remains falling bond yields and steady currencies, themselves the product of conservative fiscal and monetary policies and rightward shifts in recent electoral results. Louis and Alexandre discuss the political outlook and how that will shape opportunities for the region.

Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.

US economic actions, on the face of it, threaten Europe’s strategic and economic wellbeing. The continent’s export industries have been roiled by the US president’s trade war, while the attack on Iran risks an inflationary surge as energy prices climb. At the same time, Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from the Atlantic alliance and has reduced support for Ukraine. Our panel addresses whether this new reality signals a death knell for the European integration project, or whether it is the catalyst Europe needs to rethink both its economic and strategic models.

The relatively closed US economy is arguably the best positioned to weather disruption stemming from the Iran war. Yet even it finds itself at an awkward juncture. As high-income households generally thrive in an environment of technological disruption and high asset prices, those in the middle and lower end are struggling due to financial strain and inflation. Will and Kai Xian explore the balance of these forces, the impacts of the war and concerns around big outflows from the private credit sector and what that means for credit transmission in the economy.

The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.

Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.