Videos

Interviews

Video: China’s New Economic Trajectory

Video: China’s New Economic Trajectory

29 Feb 2024
China’s disappointing economic growth over the past year has led many to conclude that it is heading into the same deflationary trap that swallowed Japan in the 1990s. In this video, Arthur discusses the comparison and China’s growth outlook, as well as the government’s new policy priorities and geopolitical risks ahead.
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Video: More Trouble Ahead For Commercial Real Estate

Video: More Trouble Ahead For Commercial Real Estate

23 Feb 2024
US commercial real estate has been a slow-moving train wreck for more than a year now. But over the coming months, the sector’s problems are set to accelerate. Sales by troubled Chinese investors have resurrected price discovery, and are likely to force US institutions into markdowns. In turn this will hurt the value of assets held by lenders to the sector, including pension funds and private equity funds. Tan Kai Xian assesses the extent of the damage.
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Video: Gulf States In Transition

Video: Gulf States In Transition

15 Feb 2024
Fresh back from a research trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Tom Miller shares his impressions of Saudi’s efforts to transform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on petroleum, talks about the effect of the Gaza conflict on regional relations, and assesses the state of the Gulf countries’ relationships with the world’s two economic superpowers: the United States and China.
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Video: The Chinese Equity Rout

Video: The Chinese Equity Rout

8 Feb 2024
On Wednesday, China replaced its stock market regulator as part of a series of choreographed interventions seemingly intended to bolster support for bombed-out equities and so avert a spiral of decline in the nation’s asset markets. In this video interview, Thomas argues that the combined effect of recent macro policy moves in addition to market support actions should allow a solid bounce in Chinese equities. What comes after that is far less clear.
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Video: Pricing Europe’s Populist Surge

Video: Pricing Europe’s Populist Surge

1 Feb 2024
In this video interview, Cedric Gemehl digs into the polling numbers for June's European Parliament election and explains how Europe’s institutions will likely adapt to a possible electoral shock amid a political economy of protest movements across the continent.
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Video: The Fed Closes An Arb Opportunity

Video: The Fed Closes An Arb Opportunity

25 Jan 2024
In trying to prop up US banks after the Silicon Valley Bank bust in March last year, the Federal Reserve introduced a liquidity facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program. Banks in November and December started to take advantage of a widening arbitrage opportunity from this facility.
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Video: A Golden Path For Bitcoin?

Video: A Golden Path For Bitcoin?

17 Jan 2024
Dismissed not long ago as a phantom of negative-real-rate delirium, bitcoin is up nearly 60% over the last three months, with the run-up propelled in part by prospects for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines the underpinnings of the rally, and asks whether there are lessons to be learned from the rollout of gold ETFs 20 years ago.
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Video: China's Investibility

Video: China's Investibility

12 Jan 2024
Following a year in which anyone hoping for a reopening rally in China was cruelly disappointed, Louis examines the reasons many international money managers believe China is now uninvestible, and asks whether these can change in 2024.
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Video: The Middle Eastern Conflict Metastasizes

Video: The Middle Eastern Conflict Metastasizes

4 Jan 2024
After the fighting in Gaza remained largely contained through much of the final quarter of 2023, the risk that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle Eastern region—with potentially grievous economic costs—has risen sharply in recent weeks.
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Video: The Fed’s Pivot And US Banks

Video: The Fed’s Pivot And US Banks

19 Dec 2023
After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.
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Events

Webinar: Reading The Market’s Conflicting Signals

Webinar: Reading The Market’s Conflicting Signals

23 Feb 2024
So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.
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Webinar: The US And Europe Compared

Webinar: The US And Europe Compared

9 Feb 2024
A soft-landing scenario looks to be playing out in the US, with inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and growth humming along. Across the pond, the eurozone seems to be headed the same way, albeit with lower growth. Our team of specialists asked if such an “immaculate disinflation” is possible on both sides of the Atlantic and explored what it means for relative monetary policy settings and asset price performance.
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Webinar: Dealing With China's Deflation

Webinar: Dealing With China's Deflation

26 Jan 2024
China's economy is limping into 2024, beset by a deflationary dynamic of deficient domestic demand. Markets are depressed too: prices of bonds and equities show little optimism for future growth despite government promises of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Our China team analyzed the causes and consequences of this deflationary pressure, and the prospects for relief via an improvement in property.
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Webinar: The World In 2024

Webinar: The World In 2024

11 Jan 2024
Gavekal’s senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.
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Beijing Seminar — December 2023

Beijing Seminar — December 2023

14 Dec 2023
In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.
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Webinar: Europe At A Turning Point?

Webinar: Europe At A Turning Point?

7 Dec 2023
Europe's latest data releases show an economy that is weak but not worsening. The hope for investors is that a soft-landing scenario plays out, but risks abound that could threaten this rosy outlook. Our European analysts assess where the eurozone economy is heading and what it means for regional financial assets.
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Webinar: Taking The Global Temperature

Webinar: Taking The Global Temperature

23 Nov 2023
The global economy has held up better than many commentators had expected early in the year. What comes next? Our team of analysts covering China, the US, Europe and emerging markets will outline their views in this webinar.
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Webinar: China's Search For Stability

Webinar: China's Search For Stability

10 Nov 2023
After months of mixed signals, China’s government is now moving more actively to shore up the economy. But the property crisis remains stubbornly unresolved, and faces problems in domestic consumption and external demand look strong enough to drive a broad rebound. Can China finally achieve some economic stability after years of repeated shocks?
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Webinar: The Risk From Gaza

Webinar: The Risk From Gaza

27 Oct 2023
The conflagration in Gaza has spurred a geopolitical crisis that has so far had a limited impact on global markets. The calculation of investors has been that the key players involved in the Middle East want to prevent escalation towards a regional war. In this webinar, our team unpick the latest developments and explain what they mean for the oil market and other asset values.
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Webinar: Beyond The Bond Sell-Off

Webinar: Beyond The Bond Sell-Off

13 Oct 2023
A vicious bear market in the financial world’s primary “risk-free” asset is affecting other markets, from equities through currencies to commodities, and threatens to undermine the very foundations on which the global financial architecture is constructed. In this webinar, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer examine both the near-term outlook for asset prices and the longer-term implications for financial markets.
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