Videos

Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In this video interview, Tom looks at the game-theory calculus that prompted Opec+ to increase production into a soft market, and at what will drive the oil price over the remainder of 2025.

In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.

Argentina recently loosened capital controls and floated its currency in a bid to rejoin global capital markets. Under Javier Milei, the country has been engaged in a radical free market experiment for the last 16 months, as it seeks to conquer inflation and stabilize the economy. Tom recently returned from a research trip to Argentina, and in this interview discusses how the Milei project is going and whether it is replicable elsewhere in Latin America.

It seems clear that last week’s bond market sell-off was the trigger for the Trump administration backing off its maximalist stance on tariffs. But what was the key factor driving that sell-off? In this interview, Will explores whether it was triggered by a change in the US growth outlook, inflation fears, a looming bond supply shock or capital flight from the US.

As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China’s domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.

The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.

As other formerly hot asset classes have rolled over, gold has continued to advance through February and March, setting a new record high above US$3,050/oz. In this video, Gavekal founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave examines the fundamental drivers of gold’s rally, considers the metal’s valuation, and asks whether the run-up can continue.

It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.

The last time that the US and China got embroiled in a trade war, Chinese equities badly underperformed. Since January, however, Chinese equities have performed strongly, while their US counterparts have entered into correction territory. In this video interview, Thomas explains the cyclical and structural factors behind this trend.

Incredulity and outrage have greeted Donald Trump’s mooted Gaza redevelopment plan across the Arab world. Just back from a research trip to Egypt, Gavekal senior analyst Tom Miller discusses the Arab states’ rival proposals for Gaza, touches on how US policy has affected America’s standing in the region, and looks at how the developments of the last few years have affected Egypt’s own economic prospects.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.

This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.

While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.

In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.

So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.

A soft-landing scenario looks to be playing out in the US, with inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and growth humming along. Across the pond, the eurozone seems to be headed the same way, albeit with lower growth. Our team of specialists asked if such an “immaculate disinflation” is possible on both sides of the Atlantic and explored what it means for relative monetary policy settings and asset price performance.

China's economy is limping into 2024, beset by a deflationary dynamic of deficient domestic demand. Markets are depressed too: prices of bonds and equities show little optimism for future growth despite government promises of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Our China team analyzed the causes and consequences of this deflationary pressure, and the prospects for relief via an improvement in property.

Gavekal’s senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.