Videos

Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.

Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.

Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.

Fresh back from a tour of Southeast Asia, Tom Miller offers a study in contrasts between Vietnam and Indonesia. While both have new leaders each a year into his term and each promising economic reform, the two countries’ economic trajectories are starkly different. Tom provides some notes from the road.

France’s latest prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, has survived two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly. But his victory has come at a cost. In this interview, Cedric Gemehl charts the political currents in the run-up to France’s 2027 presidential election and examines why French financial markets have remained relatively calm amid all the political turbulence.

As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out. In this video interview, Will adopts a macro analysis to the question of whether the artificial intelligence boom has broadened into a bubble and, if so, how exposed investors might be to a rupture.

As part of their tariff deals with the US administration of Donald Trump, Asian countries promised to invest vast sums of capital in the US economy, with South Korea pledging US$350bn, while Japan committed to invest US$550bn. Udith discusses whether these investment commitments are realistic, how they might be structured, their potential impact on financial markets and whether failure to deliver could jeopardize the underlying deals on bilateral trade.

Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference. In this week’s interview, Gavekal European economist Cedric Gemehl assesses the vulnerability of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in an age of rising political populism.

The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel. In this interview, Will discusses what all this means for near-term interest rate setting and for governance at the central bank in the longer term.

With France now on its fifth prime minister in two years, and protesters aiming to block the streets of French cities, commentators are increasingly asserting that France—and more broadly Europe—is now ungovernable. That may be overstating the case. But as Charles Gave points out in this video interview, with debt now rising faster than GDP in a number of major European economies, the continent is heading into a nasty debt trap.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.

China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.

France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.