Videos

Interviews

Video: The Israel-Hezbollah Standoff

Video: The Israel-Hezbollah Standoff

4 Jul 2024
Yanmei Xie
Over the past month, the frequency, intensity and severity of clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah has ramped up on the Israel-Lebanon border. That may already have been responsible for pushing the oil price higher. In this interview, Yanmei assesses the forces of escalation against the strength of the guardrails that have kept the conflict fairly contained so far.
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Video: Playing The US Electrification Trend

Video: Playing The US Electrification Trend

26 Jun 2024
Tan Kai Xian
The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.
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Video: Return Of Europe's National Victims?

Video: Return Of Europe's National Victims?

19 Jun 2024
Cedric Gemehl
The surprise election announcement by French president Emmanuel Macron last week was followed by market turmoil as investors priced in greater political uncertainty in France. Setting the politics aside for a moment, Cedric assesses the new environment for equities and bonds, and invokes the old Gavekal concept of “national victims” to chart the potential outcomes for listed companies exposed to the French market or who operate in heavily regulated sectors.
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Video: Punitive Tariffs Or Towards A New Plaza Accord?

Video: Punitive Tariffs Or Towards A New Plaza Accord?

12 Jun 2024
Louis-Vincent Gave
As the European Union slaps punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, Louis ponders the problem with the developed world’s responses so far to China’s rapid climb up the global value curve: they are all inflationary for developed-economy consumers. One—admittedly speculative—alternative would be a new Plaza Accord. That would depend on a change of political direction in the US, but the implications for financial markets would be earthshaking.
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Video: Aramco, Oil And Saudi's Economic Transition

Video: Aramco, Oil And Saudi's Economic Transition

7 Jun 2024
Tom Holland, Tom Miller
Saudi Arabia’s US$11bn follow-on offering for oil giant Aramco follows a spate of Saudi sovereign issues this year in domestic and international debt markets. Nevertheless, talk that Riyadh is facing a mounting fiscal squeeze as it attempts to fund a list of expensive mega-projects as part of an unrealistic economic transition program are exaggerated.
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Video: Riding The Mexican Wave

Video: Riding The Mexican Wave

30 May 2024
Tom Miller
Mexicans go to the polls this Sunday to elect a new president after several years in which the Mexican economy has benefited from the realignment of global supply chains. Fresh back from a trip to Mexico’s China-invested factory lands, Tom Miller assesses how the new president will endeavor to attract fresh inward investment while navigating mounting criticism from Washington that Mexico is acting as a back door into the US for unfairly underpriced Chinese goods.
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Video: Evaluating China's Property Rescue

Video: Evaluating China's Property Rescue

23 May 2024
Christopher Beddor
China’s policymakers announced several new property policies last week, including a call for local governments to buy back residential land from developers and purchase housing inventories for conversion into affordable homes. Christopher examines this latest attempt to bolster the ailing property sector and evaluates whether it might succeed where earlier efforts have failed.
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Video: The Economics Of A No-Limits Partnership

Video: The Economics Of A No-Limits Partnership

16 May 2024
Yanmei Xie
Vladimir Putin visited Beijing this week a few weeks after senior US officials were in town to berate Chinese policymakers over their alleged supply of “dual-use” products to Russia. Chinese sales of machine tools, industrial widgets and microchips are reportedly key to Russia’s reinvigorated weapons production program but Xi Jinping is likely to preside over a relatively cautious approach to the trade.
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Video: The Data Center Constraint

Video: The Data Center Constraint

10 May 2024
Tan Kai Xian
Data centers are emerging as massive users of electricity that power-producers in many economies are struggling to serve. Data centers are also large-scale users of water, which is a scarce resource in many regions. In this video, Kai Xian discusses whether such constraints will impede the rollout of AI applications and thus hinder the hoped-for productivity improvement they promise to deliver.
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Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

2 May 2024
Udith Sikand
A sharp strengthening of the yen late Wednesday suggested the Bank of Japan was again intervening in the foreign exchange market after it spent an estimated US$35bn to counter yen weakness on Monday. In this video interview, Udith Sikand examines the currency market dynamics to gauge the likely effectiveness of the Japanese authorities’ campaign to limit further yen weakness.
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Events

Webinar: Is A New Cycle Playing Out?

Webinar: Is A New Cycle Playing Out?

7 Jul 2023
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave
The global investment environment remains blighted by sustained inflationary pressure, tapped-out Western governments and a weakening Chinese economy. But tech stocks are again surging, this time on AI-fueled expectations. Anatole, Arthur and Louis pick through these dynamics to explain how these apparently conflicting trends may play out.
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Webinar: Rescuing China's Recovery

Webinar: Rescuing China's Recovery

30 Jun 2023
Andrew Batson, Rosealea Yao, Wei He
China’s growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?
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Webinar: Macro And Monetary Rules To Drive Global Asset Allocation

Webinar: Macro And Monetary Rules To Drive Global Asset Allocation

23 Jun 2023
Didier Darcet
Didier Darcet leads a team of researchers in Paris who focus on asset allocation questions through the Gavekal-IS service. Starting with the “permanent portfolio” developed by US activist and investment advisor Harry Browne, in this webinar he explains the team’s methodology.
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Webinar: China’s Southern Gambit

Webinar: China’s Southern Gambit

16 Jun 2023
Tom Miller
After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington’s containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China’s relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China’s strategy is likely to play out.
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Webinar: Japan's Sea Change

Webinar: Japan's Sea Change

9 Jun 2023
Udith Sikand
For decades, Japan has been derided as a value trap for investors. Now, things are changing. Inflation is back, and this time it’s bedding down. Wages are rising. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to back away from its ultra-easy monetary policies. Long-running policy efforts to strengthen corporate governance are beginning to unlock value for investors in the stock market, and with the Japanese yen still deeply undervalued, there are prospects of sizable currency appreciation. Udith Sikand outlines Japan’s unique value proposition for investors.
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Webinar: In Search Of Europe’s Second Half Drivers

Webinar: In Search Of Europe’s Second Half Drivers

2 Jun 2023
Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone’s economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.
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Webinar: Boomer Vs Buster

Webinar: Boomer Vs Buster

26 May 2023
Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky
Anatole Kaletsky insists that the US remains in an inflationary boom and will avoid a near-term recession. Will Denyer is on the other side of Gavekal’s internal debate, contending that a disinflationary US recession is around the corner. In this webinar, Will asked the questions in order to test out Anatole’s convictions.
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Webinar: An End Point For US-China Tensions?

Webinar: An End Point For US-China Tensions?

19 May 2023
Arthur Kroeber, Yanmei Xie
Until recently the US government’s approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.
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Webinar: Turkey And Thailand—Two Elections At A Hard Time For EMs

Webinar: Turkey And Thailand—Two Elections At A Hard Time For EMs

12 May 2023
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui
Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy’s prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.
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Webinar: The US Economy Balancing Act

Webinar: The US Economy Balancing Act

5 May 2023
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Will and KX have been in the camp arguing that such trends point to a US economy heading towards recession. They update their view with a particular focus on the strength of the US consumer and in light of this week's Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
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