Videos

The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. In this week’s interview, Kai Xian examines what this might portend for interest rates and the performance of US equities through the rest of 2025 and into next year.

With €3trn in assets, Europe’s pension funds are investment giants. But they have long been lumbering and risk-averse giants. Now, Cedric Gemehl argues, they are about to discover a new-found appetite for risky assets, and that at the margin this shift will favor European equities over US equities and European government bonds.

In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago. Udith unpacks how these framework arrangements are shaping Asia’s macro environment—and what they could mean for markets, particularly the potential for a coordinated regional interest rate easing cycle.

The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling. In this video interview, Kai Xian reviews the economic drivers for US housing and asks what could lead to a turnaround.

The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.” In this week’s interview, Tom Miller examines whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assesses the group’s progress towards dedollarization.

So far in 2025, the US labor market has been a case of “not too hot, not too cold.” Although trade war uncertainties have muted some hiring plans, the job openings and employment data have given no reasons to expect a marked softening in the economy. KX assesses the how the labor market is likely to develop from here.

European members of Nato just agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump? Cedric argues in this interview that Europe’s moves should be taken seriously as it fits into a new European Union consensus that the group must become self-sufficient, whether in terms of defense, or generating economic growth. He explains what this could mean for EU deepening measures and how it may influence Europe’s investment outlook.

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.

Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.

Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.

This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.

While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.

In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.