Videos

The business environment in China has changed markedly over the past few years. On a recent trip to Beijing and Shanghai, Tom met foreign executives who lament the changed environment yet still crave access to China’s huge market. He also ran into domestic firms that thrived in recent decades but are struggling to turn a profit in an economy being directed at self-sufficiency. Yet for those who are on the right side of change in China’s big cities, he says they can benefit from cheap living costs and a good quality of life.

Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates—on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade—examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.

In markets, this year has been dominated by artificial intelligence. Nearly a decade ago, the hyped-up tech de jour was autonomous vehicles. Now it appears as if years of testing and development are starting to bear fruit. Will recently took his first robo-taxi ride in San Francisco and in this interview he examines the state of the technology, the scale of the rollout and who stands to benefit, or lose, from mass market adoption.

Usually when developed market volatility spikes, the world’s emerging markets fall victim to collateral damage. Things have been less simple this time around. Although Latin American currencies, especially the Mexican peso, have been hit hard by the unwinding of the yen carry trade, East Asian currencies have risen strongly. Udith Sikand explores what lies behind the divergence.

On the eve of the Paris Olympics, France’s political class has taken a welcome break from trying to resolve the parliamentary dilemma thrown by a deeply divided electorate. In this video, Cedric discusses the state of France and whether its economy can expect to benefit from an Olympic bounce to chase away the summer blues.

A new spirit of mercantilism is abroad in the US, with Donald Trump’s Republican Party proposing a “baseline tariff” on all goods imports, as well as targeted higher tariffs on imports from China, should it capture the White House in November’s election. In this interview, Yanmei assesses what this means.

Two months ago, Kai Xian made a cautiously bullish call on the US housing market, as a downturn in activity had looked to be bottoming out. In the intervening period, however, conditions for US homebuilders continued to worsen. In this interview, he explains what happened and what he expects to happen next.

Over the past month, the frequency, intensity and severity of clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah has ramped up on the Israel-Lebanon border. That may already have been responsible for pushing the oil price higher. In this interview, Yanmei assesses the forces of escalation against the strength of the guardrails that have kept the conflict fairly contained so far.

The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.

The surprise election announcement by French president Emmanuel Macron last week was followed by market turmoil as investors priced in greater political uncertainty in France. Setting the politics aside for a moment, Cedric assesses the new environment for equities and bonds, and invokes the old Gavekal concept of “national victims” to chart the potential outcomes for listed companies exposed to the French market or who operate in heavily regulated sectors.

Our research panels tackle the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. We end by asking what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.

The global investment environment remains blighted by sustained inflationary pressure, tapped-out Western governments and a weakening Chinese economy. But tech stocks are again surging, this time on AI-fueled expectations. Anatole, Arthur and Louis pick through these dynamics to explain how these apparently conflicting trends may play out.

China’s growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?

Didier Darcet leads a team of researchers in Paris who focus on asset allocation questions through the Gavekal-IS service. Starting with the “permanent portfolio” developed by US activist and investment advisor Harry Browne, in this webinar he explains the team’s methodology.

After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington’s containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China’s relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China’s strategy is likely to play out.

For decades, Japan has been derided as a value trap for investors. Now, things are changing. Inflation is back, and this time it’s bedding down. Wages are rising. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to back away from its ultra-easy monetary policies. Long-running policy efforts to strengthen corporate governance are beginning to unlock value for investors in the stock market, and with the Japanese yen still deeply undervalued, there are prospects of sizable currency appreciation. Udith Sikand outlines Japan’s unique value proposition for investors.

Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone’s economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.

Anatole Kaletsky insists that the US remains in an inflationary boom and will avoid a near-term recession. Will Denyer is on the other side of Gavekal’s internal debate, contending that a disinflationary US recession is around the corner. In this webinar, Will asked the questions in order to test out Anatole’s convictions.

Until recently the US government’s approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.

Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy’s prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.