Videos

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.

Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.

Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.

Europe’s construction sector has struggled in recent years due to cyclical weakness and the high cost of money stemming from the post-pandemic inflation outbreak. However, as August argues in this video, the green shoots of recovery are already being seen in public sector projects, and this could be spreading to private sector building activity.

Political risk is once again rearing its head in France. With the new leader of the Republicans pushing to the right, and with a new leader of the Socialists likely to track to the left, the minority coalition of prime minister François Bayrou is looking less secure. With the next round of budget negotiations this fall a probable crunch point, Cedric Gemehl examines the forces at work and assesses the risks for French debt and equity markets.

Critics of the Trump administration point to a golden era of corruption emerging in the crypto-currency space, while even supporters are becoming irritated that Trump family dealings are slowing up the passage of enabling legislation that will deepen and broaden the crypto market. In this video interview, Will explores these developments and argues the US government will eventually pass stablecoin legislation.

Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In this video interview, Tom looks at the game-theory calculus that prompted Opec+ to increase production into a soft market, and at what will drive the oil price over the remainder of 2025.

In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.

Argentina recently loosened capital controls and floated its currency in a bid to rejoin global capital markets. Under Javier Milei, the country has been engaged in a radical free market experiment for the last 16 months, as it seeks to conquer inflation and stabilize the economy. Tom recently returned from a research trip to Argentina, and in this interview discusses how the Milei project is going and whether it is replicable elsewhere in Latin America.

It seems clear that last week’s bond market sell-off was the trigger for the Trump administration backing off its maximalist stance on tariffs. But what was the key factor driving that sell-off? In this interview, Will explores whether it was triggered by a change in the US growth outlook, inflation fears, a looming bond supply shock or capital flight from the US.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.

Most investors and financial analysts take the stability of the global monetary system for granted. However, each of the distinguished speakers in this three-way conversation thinks that China will change the global monetary system, they just don’t agree on how, and how fast it will be changed.

The policy approaches of major economies are diverging, leading to unstable currency markets with more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbor at work. Our team of country specialists seek to explain what comes next.

China’s property market is off to an awful start to 2024, and the government’s efforts to shore up the sector appear to be gaining no traction. Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang join Christopher Beddor to unpack what exactly is driving the recent weakness and why policymakers are not doing more to help, as well as what it all means for commodity markets, the financial sector and economic growth ahead.

In this webinar Gavekal’s analysts review the themes driving growth across the world’s major economic regions, and discuss how macro developments are likely to drive financial markets over the remainder of 2024.

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In this webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners examine how investors have mispriced the risk of permanently higher inflation, and discuss how to structure portfolios for a less forgiving macro environment in which bonds no longer serve to hedge exposure to equities.

This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.

While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.

In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.

So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.