Videos

On July 23, Spain goes to the polls in a hastily-called election, which on current polling could lead to protracted coalition talks and a government of new faces. If so, the result will complicate the outlook for Spain’s second-half rotating presidency of the EU, at a time when clear leadership will be needed to steer the reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules. Nick Andrews reviews the political landscape and sets out the challenges.

Louis recently spent time meeting companies and investors in China and found that animal spirits have indeed taken a big knock as a result of government policies. In this video interview, he discusses what this mood shift means for asset markets and offers a view on how investors should play a more circumspect China.

For China bulls, April really was the cruelest month, with economic indicators undershooting expectations almost across the board. In response, market sentiment has swung from the excessive bullishness that prevailed at the end of 2022 to what looks now like an excess of bearishness.

There are tentative signs that the US housing downturn is flattening out, however, Will is not convinced that an upswing now beckons. He worries that US housing remains unaffordable by historical standards and the new home market is moderately oversupplied. As a member of the US recession camp, he worries that a looming deterioration in the labor market will reinforce these negative drivers.

Over the last decade, the eurozone banking system relied on emergency lending facilities that made liquidity freely available and predictably priced. Today, the ECB is both winding down its quantitative easing and allowing liquidity operations to expire. That will force European banks to rely on each other for interbank lending. In this video, Nick explores what that means for banks and investors alike.

The reduction in a key measure of interbank liquidity in Hong Kong and a weakening of the Hong Kong dollar has led some investors to conclude that trouble looms for the Asian financial center. In this video interview, Vincent explains why the real victim of “normalization” in the Hong Kong dollar market may not be the currency peg but the local property market.

Worsening US-China relations presents both a threat and an opportunity to other Asian economies. Many non-China producers will lose out if the re-onshoring trend gathers pace. On the other hand, Western producers’ move to seek new supplier networks represents a major opportunity.

The Opec+ petroleum exporters’ cartel is cutting back its crude production and China's reopening evokes memories of how previous Chinese rebound drove oil demand. But is that the case today? Tom weighs the conflicting forces driving oil demand and supply, and assesses the outlook for prices over the remainder of 2023.

Emmanuel Macron’s domestic reform agenda looks to have met its Waterloo over massive popular opposition to pension reform. In this video interview, Cedric takes stock of Macron’s presidency and explains what it means for France’s economic prospects in the next four years.

In last week’s video interview, Louis Gave argued that the problem affecting banks was concentrated in the US and did not really deserve the moniker “crisis”. Tan Kai Xian agrees that banking problems are mostly focused in the US, but he worries that this will prove to be a rolling crisis whose effects worsen as it develops.

Over the last decade, Asian property markets have done especially well on a cocktail of cheap money and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Yet as policymakers in Asia struggle to catch up with the US Federal Reserve by raising interest rates, Asian property markets look exposed.

As fears mount for the growth outlook around the world, Arthur Kroeber examined the state of China’s economy and what to expect (and what not to expect) from China’s upcoming Communist Party Congress. Anatole Kaletsky presented his latest views on growth and inflation. And Charles Gave discussed optimum portfolio construction for troubled times.

The speakers discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

The US dollar continues to make new highs, dragging the rest of the world’s currencies lower and forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy to deal with resulting threats of financial instability and heightened inflation. In this webinar, our team of currency-focused analysts looked at the effect of the current global liquidity crisis in their regions.

Thomas Gatley discussed his in-depth research into who owns China’s listed firms and answered viewer questions. Over the past decade a new hybrid form of ownership has emerged, which arguably represents the corporate form best adapted to succeed in China’s state capitalist economy. But there are risks to this new model.

With European energy prices for the coming winter up by 500% or more, inflation broadening, and businesses and consumers pessimistic, Europe’s economies are in for a troubled few months. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discuss what it all means.

China's economy faces two critical challenges: A property sector is in its worst slump in years. And the economic impact of persistent Covid lockdowns caused by sporadic outbreaks from more transmissible Covid variants. In this webinar, Dragonomics analysts discussed the challenges.

Anatole outlined the global growth and inflation outlook, and why financial markets have yet to fully adjust; Charles presented his thinking on the dissolution of the post-World-War-Two order and what this means for assets; and Arthur gave an update on China ahead of the 20th Party Congress.

In this webinar Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer discussed the outlook for the US economy and markets over the next 18 months. Additionally, Charles Gave gave an update on the evolving international US dollar liquidity crisis.

China today is a major source of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Its zero-Covid policy has a significant economic cost, the recovery of the property and tech sectors remains in doubt and the close relationship with Russia raises geopolitical questions. In this webinar, our team attempted to sort out these perplexities.