Videos

Ahead of next Thursday’s policy meeting of the European Central Bank, the market is betting heavily on an interest rate cut. In this video interview, Cedric argues that the market is probably right in its view but cautions that risks are titled towards hawkish surprises as this economic backdrop does not presage a return to the disinflationary environment seen in the pre-pandemic years.

The issue of inflation is figuring heavily in the US presidential campaign and was the subject of debate between the vice president candidates on Wednesday. In this video interview, Will addresses the political economy of inflation in late 2024 in the US and suggests ways that investors should think about the reaction function of policymakers.

Indian equities have surged to new highs in recent months. That is perhaps surprising given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is increasingly constrained in its legislative agenda. Udith, however, argues that despite international investors warming up to China’s improved market prospects, India's equity rally should be sustained since Indian investors stand ready to fill any gaps left by departing foreign institutions.

In the last two months, oil prices have slumped -20%, with the international Brent crude benchmark falling to a shade above US$70/bbl and energy names underperforming broader US equity indexes. Louis examines the reasons behind the recent slide and assesses the near and long-term supply-demand pictures in energy markets.

In this interview, Udith discusses the story behind the numbers of India’s latest GDP release and offers his views on the monetary environment for the rest of the year and what this means for Indian asset markets.

The business environment in China has changed markedly over the past few years. On a recent trip to Beijing and Shanghai, Tom met foreign executives who lament the changed environment yet still crave access to China’s huge market. He also ran into domestic firms that thrived in recent decades but are struggling to turn a profit in an economy being directed at self-sufficiency. Yet for those who are on the right side of change in China’s big cities, he says they can benefit from cheap living costs and a good quality of life.

Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates—on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade—examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.

In markets, this year has been dominated by artificial intelligence. Nearly a decade ago, the hyped-up tech de jour was autonomous vehicles. Now it appears as if years of testing and development are starting to bear fruit. Will recently took his first robo-taxi ride in San Francisco and in this interview he examines the state of the technology, the scale of the rollout and who stands to benefit, or lose, from mass market adoption.

Usually when developed market volatility spikes, the world’s emerging markets fall victim to collateral damage. Things have been less simple this time around. Although Latin American currencies, especially the Mexican peso, have been hit hard by the unwinding of the yen carry trade, East Asian currencies have risen strongly. Udith Sikand explores what lies behind the divergence.

On the eve of the Paris Olympics, France’s political class has taken a welcome break from trying to resolve the parliamentary dilemma thrown by a deeply divided electorate. In this video, Cedric discusses the state of France and whether its economy can expect to benefit from an Olympic bounce to chase away the summer blues.

For decades, Japan has been derided as a value trap for investors. Now, things are changing. Inflation is back, and this time it’s bedding down. Wages are rising. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to back away from its ultra-easy monetary policies. Long-running policy efforts to strengthen corporate governance are beginning to unlock value for investors in the stock market, and with the Japanese yen still deeply undervalued, there are prospects of sizable currency appreciation. Udith Sikand outlines Japan’s unique value proposition for investors.

Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone’s economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.

Anatole Kaletsky insists that the US remains in an inflationary boom and will avoid a near-term recession. Will Denyer is on the other side of Gavekal’s internal debate, contending that a disinflationary US recession is around the corner. In this webinar, Will asked the questions in order to test out Anatole’s convictions.

Until recently the US government’s approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.

Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy’s prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.

Will and KX have been in the camp arguing that such trends point to a US economy heading towards recession. They update their view with a particular focus on the strength of the US consumer and in light of this week's Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

China’s economic rebound is well under way, with GDP growth in the first quarter beating expectations on the back of strengthening household consumption and property sales. But many still have doubts about the strength of the recovery. Thomas Gatley and Wei He assess what the data tell us about the recovery so far, as well as the outlook for economic growth and asset markets.

In last week's seminar in Beijing, Will Denyer discussed the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy; Arthur Kroeber spoke on China’s long-term growth trajectory and the strategy to counter US efforts to hinder its technological development; Andrew Batson presented an update on China's post-Covid recovery and answered audience questions along with Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang.

After global frontier markets went on a borrowing spree between 2008 and 2020, tighter global liquidity has pushed countries from Pakistan to Zambia into financial crisis. China is a major creditor, sometimes at odds with other bilateral and multilateral lenders.

Louis examined the global macroeconomic landscape to find the key trends and structural changes that matter for investors; Wei discussed China's economic recovery and outlined the near-term growth and policy outlook; and Arthur spoke on China’s long-term growth trajectory geopolitical strategy.