Videos

After two years locked away behind Covid controls, Hong Kong is reopening to the world. Arthur knows the city well and has just spent two weeks there meeting entrepreneurs and financiers. In this interview he explains his conditional optimism that the city still has an important role to play as a financial center for China.

Brazil will go into a second-round presidential election run-off at the end of the month with two candidates offering two quite different models of governance and economic management. Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also likely to have very different relationships with China, which Tom argues could be material in assessing Brazil’s economic outlook.

After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.

Hong Kong is finally moving towards reopening to the wider world, if not yet to mainland China. Yet Hong Kong’s economy and assets are getting squeezed by higher US interest rates imported via the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this interview, Vincent examines the different forces at work driving Hong Kong’s macro and markets.

On Thursday the Ethereum blockchain underwent the “merge”, moving from a proof-of-work based system to proof-of-stake. This cut its energy usage by -99.9% and slashed the issuance of new ether. Will explains what that means for ether’s in-universe money supply, and how it might make the cryptocurrency more attractive to investors, or spenders.

In the last six weeks the Japanese yen has fallen over -8% against the US currency to more than ¥140 to the US dollar. In this video interview, Louis examines the causes of the yen’s fall and explores the potential consequences for investors.

The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.

Concerns about global growth are escalating amid rising inflation and tightening central banks. In this webinar, our global team examined the risks, region by region.

As Covid case numbers in China steadily fall and Shanghai promises to reopen, the question that emerges is whether the worst is over. In this week's webinar, our China team explained the shifting policy environment and discussed the risks to the economy and markets.

In this webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian examined market moves so far this year to figure out whether US equities now have fallen enough to warrant going overwheight, and whether US treasury yields have risen enough to justify extending duration and/or placing recession bets.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.

Nick Andrews discusses cyclical dynamics in Europe and the central bank’s policy responses. Louis-Vincent Gave presents his take on French politics and the broader macroeconomic picture.

Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.

In this webinar, our team provide an update on the rapidly changing on-the-ground situation in China, and discuss how this latest Covid shock will affect the economic trajectory for 2022.

Over the last year, Anatole and Louis have often duked it out over the issue of inflationary pressures and how this intense and truncated economic cycle will play out. Louis had been in the inflation worrier camp from the get-go, and in recent weeks Anatole has reluctantly joined him.

In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.