Videos

December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.

In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.

Another fight over the American debt ceiling is brewing in Washington, D.C. It is hard to think that the US government debt-ceiling standoff will not be settled but in the meantime, this could materially impact US liquidity conditions over the coming six months.

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised hackles in the European Union, where politicians complain that US green subsidies unfairly tilt the playing field to the disadvantage of European companies. The dispute threatens to jeopardize US efforts to enlist European support for Washington’s economic confrontation with China.

China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.

Over the last 12 months, the eurozone’s trade balance has swung from surplus into a deficit. And energy prices are only part of the reason. Nick explains that the eurozone is also suffering a structural decline in its manufacturing competitiveness that will to weigh on growth for years to come.

With affordability at a near 40-year low, demand for US housing has faded and homebuilders’ confidence has evaporated. In this video interview, Kai Xian explains how bad things could get and presents an investing strategy that could work even in very bad market conditions.

In a growth-challenged world, India stands out as something of a bright spot. The economy is hardly firing on all cylinders but there are signs of a new investment cycle starting to unfold. Tom recently did a research trip in the country for the first time since the pandemic and in this interview explains his findings.

After two years locked away behind Covid controls, Hong Kong is reopening to the world. Arthur knows the city well and has just spent two weeks there meeting entrepreneurs and financiers. In this interview he explains his conditional optimism that the city still has an important role to play as a financial center for China.

Brazil will go into a second-round presidential election run-off at the end of the month with two candidates offering two quite different models of governance and economic management. Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also likely to have very different relationships with China, which Tom argues could be material in assessing Brazil’s economic outlook.

Nick Andrews discusses cyclical dynamics in Europe and the central bank’s policy responses. Louis-Vincent Gave presents his take on French politics and the broader macroeconomic picture.

Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.

In this webinar, our team provide an update on the rapidly changing on-the-ground situation in China, and discuss how this latest Covid shock will affect the economic trajectory for 2022.

Over the last year, Anatole and Louis have often duked it out over the issue of inflationary pressures and how this intense and truncated economic cycle will play out. Louis had been in the inflation worrier camp from the get-go, and in recent weeks Anatole has reluctantly joined him.

In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.

US asset prices have appreciated dramatically over the past two years, on the back of steady flows of new money and cheap credit. The question is: when will this maturing bubble burst? And how should investors position themselves today?

In the last month, investors in Europe have suffered a twin shock: the effects of surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the impact on financial market sentiment of policymakers’ responses to the worsening crisis. Our panelists discuss what's in store

China’s government has now made its priorities clear: stabilizing economic growth is the top task for 2022. But it faces a daunting list of challenges in that endeavor. Our China analysts interpret the latest data, decode the policy signals and review the outlook for markets.

As the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, and as Western sanctions on Russia bite, the world is now facing an inflationary energy and food price shock. Gavekal’s analysts assessed economies' ability to deal with this blow, policymakers' leeway and the likely reaction of financial markets.

Louis and Anatole were joined by Elbridge A. Colby to talk about the unfolding situation in Ukraine, assess the US’s potential responses, and answer viewer questions. Our guest is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.