Videos

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

European stock markets sold off and the euro fell heavily in the days following Donald Trump’s US election triumph. The declines reflected market participants’ views that a new Trump presidency will be bad news for the heavily export-dependent European economy. Cedric Gemehl goes looking for any silver linings for the old continent, and differentiates potential winners and losers.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt “no”. In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

Enthusiasts for the revitalization of US manufacturing have been heartened by recent news that TSMC’s Arizona chip fabrication plant is delivering higher production yields than the company’s fabs back home in Taiwan. This appears to be good news for the competitiveness of US manufacturing. But digging beneath the surface, Tilly and KX find things are less simple.

Since the Chinese Politburo’s pivot towards stimulus in late September, almost every one of the government’s major economic agencies has held a press conference on the measures it is taking to support growth. In this interview, Christopher assesses the likely impact of initiatives to bail out local governments, recapitalize banks, encourage property sales, support demand and juice up the equity market. And he tells us what to watch out for next.

Fresh back from kicking the policy tires in Washington and Brussels, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Yanmei Xie describes two economies in which policymakers are grappling with how to live and thrive in the same world as an ever more competitive China.

Ahead of next Thursday’s policy meeting of the European Central Bank, the market is betting heavily on an interest rate cut. In this video interview, Cedric argues that the market is probably right in its view but cautions that risks are titled towards hawkish surprises as this economic backdrop does not presage a return to the disinflationary environment seen in the pre-pandemic years.

The issue of inflation is figuring heavily in the US presidential campaign and was the subject of debate between the vice president candidates on Wednesday. In this video interview, Will addresses the political economy of inflation in late 2024 in the US and suggests ways that investors should think about the reaction function of policymakers.

Indian equities have surged to new highs in recent months. That is perhaps surprising given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is increasingly constrained in its legislative agenda. Udith, however, argues that despite international investors warming up to China’s improved market prospects, India's equity rally should be sustained since Indian investors stand ready to fill any gaps left by departing foreign institutions.

In the last two months, oil prices have slumped -20%, with the international Brent crude benchmark falling to a shade above US$70/bbl and energy names underperforming broader US equity indexes. Louis examines the reasons behind the recent slide and assesses the near and long-term supply-demand pictures in energy markets.

Hoping to turn the page on a traumatic 2022, China’s government has unveiled a new agenda to be carried out by fresh faces in 2023. In this webinar our China team discusses the outlook for the economy, the political risks and the drivers for markets.

Will Denyer discussed the banking trouble in the US and how it might affect the Federal Reserve’s course of action, Arthur Kroeber presented on China’s economic outlook and geopolitical strategy, and Louis sought to identify the key themes for investors in 2023.

In this webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl reviewed the state of the US and European banking systems, and explored what the SVB debacle means for the economy, central bank policy and portfolios.

Emerging market analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui outlined the two big forces that will drive EM performance over the rest of 2023, and explored the three main macro scenarios EM investors are likely to face.

Global investors fled Chinese assets in 2022, believing there were simply too many risks from China’s confrontation with the West and domestic policy missteps. But since last November, portfolio money has poured back in, casting doubt on the idea that China is permanently uninvestible.

For the last decade, China has been working slowly but surely to establish a new Asian monetary system as an alternative to the US-dollar-based system Asian economies have used since 1945. In this webinar, Charles Gave assesses its progress.

The reordering of the global automobile manufacturing industry is upending national economies and forcing many governments into avowedly protectionist industrial policies. Our team explored these dynamics and also addressed the supply chain for battery metals, with a focus on Indonesia.

Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.

With India’s next national election due in the second quarter of 2024, the budget released on February 1 seems firmly focused on winning votes. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller put India’s budget into context and chart the implications for investors.

A mild winter has averted Europe’s long-feared energy crisis, and the prospect of a demand boost from China’s reopening has raised hopes for growth and lifted European markets. Cedric and Nick review the continent’s macro and market conditions and chart a course to navigate the coming quarters.