Videos

After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.

The United States and China are courting middle powers across the globe in an effort to gain further economic and political influence. One such “geopolitical swing state” is Vietnam, where China's top leader, Xi Jinping, has just returned from his first trip in six years, following hot on the heels of US president Joe Biden’s visit in September.

For more than 30 years, there has been a fairly reliable inverse correlation between US treasury bonds and equities which has been the bedrock of most balanced portfolio strategies. Of late, however, that relationship has gone awry and the two asset classes have tended to move in lockstep—both up and down. In this video interview, Louis tries to explain what is going on and what happens next.

On the face of it, the US housing sector has had a rotten year, with new home prices down some -18% over the period. So why are US homebuilder stocks approaching record highs? Tan Kai Xian seeks to unpick the market's dynamics in this video and answer the question: is this time different?

Argentina’s president-elect Javier Milei wants to scrap the Argentinian peso and adopt the US dollar in an attempt to end the inflation-plagued economy’s perma-crisis once and for all. But there are formidable practical difficulties that are likely to derail Milei’s plans.

Easing consumer inflation in October and a not too hot, not too cold jobs report have helped to extend a rally in US stock and bond markets. In this video interview, chief US economist Will Denyer looks behind the headline numbers to explore what the latest US data releases are really telling investors in US markets.

Hong Kong may not be the freewheeling city of yore, but is trying to effect a reboot that will again make it Asia’s premier international financial center. Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard assess where the offshore Chinese territory stands in its recovery from political protests, Covid isolation and a game-changing national security law which has crushed political dissent.

China’s economic growth momentum stabilized in the third quarter, but it remains fragile and at a weak level. In this video, Christopher Beddor discusses the Dragonomics team's latest quarterly macro chartbook, including the outlook for growth, the current state of the property market and the recent policy shift towards greater fiscal support.

Poland is lurching back to the center ground of European politics with a coalition led by the big beast Donald Tusk, expected to soon form a government. This is good news for architects of a closer European Union and is likely to benefit Poland’s economy.

In the wake of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Brent crude is trading at around US$87/bbl. That’s US$10/bbl lower than in late September. In this video interview, Tom Holland explores the reasons why the price of oil has failed to break through the US$100/bbl barrier and examines whether an escalation of the Gaza conflict could yet drive a painful spike in global prices.

Where will Xi Jinping take China after the conclusion of the Party Congress? In this webinar, our China team assessed what we learned, and what we didn't, from the most important event in the Communist Party's political calendar. They decoded the signals on politics and policy, explored the implications of the new leadership team, and analyzed the next evolution of Covid strategy.

In our London seminar, Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for global markets, Cedric Gemehl updated his view on Europe, Tom Miller considered the effects of China's National Party Congress and Charles Gave considered the possibility that this time really could be different.

Over the last decade, Asian property markets have done especially well on a cocktail of cheap money and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Yet as policymakers in Asia struggle to catch up with the US Federal Reserve by raising interest rates, Asian property markets look exposed.

As fears mount for the growth outlook around the world, Arthur Kroeber examined the state of China’s economy and what to expect (and what not to expect) from China’s upcoming Communist Party Congress. Anatole Kaletsky presented his latest views on growth and inflation. And Charles Gave discussed optimum portfolio construction for troubled times.

The speakers discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

The US dollar continues to make new highs, dragging the rest of the world’s currencies lower and forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy to deal with resulting threats of financial instability and heightened inflation. In this webinar, our team of currency-focused analysts looked at the effect of the current global liquidity crisis in their regions.

Thomas Gatley discussed his in-depth research into who owns China’s listed firms and answered viewer questions. Over the past decade a new hybrid form of ownership has emerged, which arguably represents the corporate form best adapted to succeed in China’s state capitalist economy. But there are risks to this new model.

With European energy prices for the coming winter up by 500% or more, inflation broadening, and businesses and consumers pessimistic, Europe’s economies are in for a troubled few months. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discuss what it all means.

China's economy faces two critical challenges: A property sector is in its worst slump in years. And the economic impact of persistent Covid lockdowns caused by sporadic outbreaks from more transmissible Covid variants. In this webinar, Dragonomics analysts discussed the challenges.

Anatole outlined the global growth and inflation outlook, and why financial markets have yet to fully adjust; Charles presented his thinking on the dissolution of the post-World-War-Two order and what this means for assets; and Arthur gave an update on China ahead of the 20th Party Congress.