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Gavekal Technologies: Chips
The Nvidia Blast Zone
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber
12 Nov 2026
The Nvidia scandal looks sure to topple CEO Jensen Huang and put the company on a very rocky course for a few months. The headlines have focused on the romantic and spy stories, but the crucial issues lie elsewhere. The big risk for Huang and Nvidia is that they might be found guilty of breaking US export control rules by colluding in the illegal transshipment of AI chips from Singapore to China. The Chinese AI industry, which already has a tough time getting enough advanced chips, could soon find it even tougher, as there is a good chance that the US Congress will soon act to tighten up export controls.
Gavekal Technologies: New Energy
Permitting Reform’s Big Chance
AJ Cortese
10 Nov 2026
Efforts to clean up the US’s sclerotic system for approving energy infrastructure have failed twice before. The third time may be the charm, as the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act or BAAJA cleared its first procedural hurdle in the Senate on Monday. If it passes despite last-ditch opposition by environmental groups, it will massively boost America’s ability to scale up its electricity grid, on a three to-five year horizon. This will remove an important constraint on both AI data centers and manufacturing.
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How Wuxi AppTec Stayed Sanction-Proof
China’s two “Wuxi” biotech firms—AppTec and Biologics—are key partners for the US pharmaceutical industry, as contract developers and manufacturers of hundreds of thousands of chemical compounds. Washington lawmakers are increasingly uneasy about rising American reliance on the Wuxi firms. But their efforts to curb Wuxi’s access to the US market have been blocked, thanks to strong lobbying by the US pharma and biotech industries.
Power Lessons From China
The US data center boom is facing a power crunch. So far, delays and cancellations due to electricity shortages have been sporadic but by some point in 2028, they could force a significant slowdown in data center construction. It will be important for the US to figure out how to better use batteries and distributed renewables generation to make power demand and supply more flexible. China is already ahead in this effort.
The State Of Chinese AI
The AI world suffered tremors last week, as doubts began to surface about the frontier labs’ revenue growth and the rising amount of high-priced debt used to finance the US’s data center building binge. The risks raise a question: when and if the American AI bubble pops, can China race ahead? Probably not.
Can China Export Its Nuclear Boom?
China is the world’s biggest builder of nuclear power plants, but unlike in other energy sectors it has not become a significant exporter of reactors. While Chinese nuclear firms have figured out how to make reactors relatively cheaply, the complexity and safety needs of nuclear projects mean they will never be able to gobble up world markets through ultralow prices, as Chinese solar, EV and battery firms have done. But over the next decade it is likely China will become an important nuclear exporter.
Great Tech In Search Of Profits
On September 6-11, Gavekal Technologies held its inaugural China Tech Tour with 19 institutional-investor clients. Through a dozen site visits and in-depth conversations with senior executives, we examined China’s semiconductor, AI, new energy, robotics and biotechnology industries. This week’s China Tech Brief explores some of the key findings. By far the biggest theme was the gap between technological capabilities and corporate returns. China has plenty of globally competitive tech companies, but few that generate really attractive earnings.
GavekalTech On The Ground: 2026 China Tech Trip Takeaways
On September 6-11, Gavekal Technologies made its inaugural China Tech Trip with 19 institutional investor clients. The trip offered a close-up view of China’s tech ecosystem, including semiconductors, AI, new energy, robotics, and biotech, via a dozen site visits and in-depth conversations with senior executives. This week’s Chips report summarizes our observations in the semiconductor and AI sectors.