Most recent
Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
China’s Export-Control Calculus
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja
1 Jun 2026
As Washington discovered with semiconductors, export controls that aim to maintain a technological lead are double-edged. They may slow a rival’s catch-up, but they also incentivize the rival’s innovation and harm domestic interests. And they are hard to enforce. China is rapidly expanding its export controls to include not just rare earths but many other technologies where it has a lead. But the more controls it imposes, the more it risks choking off revenues and paths to innovation for its leading tech companies.
Gavekal Technologies: New Energy
The Battery Design Battle
AJ Cortese
25 May 2026
Battery makers are working hard to escape commodity hell by designing cells that integrate directly into electric cars’ bodies, boosting performance while making it harder for EV makers to switch battery suppliers. EV manufacturing is becoming a tug-of-war between battery makers, which like the pricing power that integrated design gives them, and carmakers, who need to decide how much flexibility they will sacrifice for better efficiency.
More research
Webinar: US-China Tech Competition After The Beijing Summit
Donald Trump came to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping determined to secure a lot of business for American companies. Despite the positive vibes, the US and China are locked in an intense technology competition, with each side working to build up its own tech ecosystem while using export controls and investment restrictions to hold back the other's progress. In the first edition of a monthly webinar series by Gavekal Technologies, semiconductor/AI analyst Laila Khawaja and new energy analyst AJ Cortese join Arthur Kroeber to discuss the risks that lie ahead for tech companies trying to navigate the US-China rivalry.
Constructive Stability, Or Uneasy Stalemate?
The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced few specifics but did confirm that both leaders want to keep the relationship stable for the next few years. Whether this new equilibrium can last depends a lot on whether Trump can tame the hawkish sentiment on China that continues to percolate in Washington
Triumphant Technology, Murderous Market
Beijing hosted the world’s biggest-ever auto show in late April. The expo confirmed that Chinese electric-vehicle makers are cementing their grip on the EV technology stack, from batteries to automated driving systems to manufacturing processes. As a result, foreign brands are shifting to all-Chinese component systems to stay competitive. The top Chinese brands are also leading a slow rationalization of the domestic market. But consolidation will be an agonizing process: several years of cutthroat competition and elusive profits lie ahead.
A Western Hemisphere Strategy For Rare Earths
Rare earths are sure to be on the agenda at the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing in mid-May. China’s chokehold over these specialty minerals continues to be its biggest source of leverage over the US. The US strategy is to build a China-free supply chain for rare earths and magnets. Unlike many Trump administration initiatives, the rare-earths industrial policy is disciplined and focused, and stands a good chance of success.
China’s Supply-Chain Security Strategy
China would like the US to roll back its restrictions on semiconductor exports and the US would like China to loosen up rare-earth export licenses, but neither side is likely to oblige. Although its rare-earths card is solid for now, China is taking out some extra insurance with new regulations. In today’s China Tech Brief we assess their impact.
Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
In the first issue of our new biweekly New Energy Insight, Damien Ma takes a close look at where the world’s biggest electricity system is headed. China’s grid is easily the best and most technically advanced in the world, but it is still plagued with problems: most important, that vast new quantities of wind and solar generation are not reliably connected.