The signing of a new mutual defense pact by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has caused alarm in the Middle East and beyond. Tom Holland argues that in a post-war world in which the US is likely to scale back its presence in the region, the new agreement will boster security and investment in Western Asia, rather than exacerbate existing tensions. Tom Miller looks at the impact of Black Sea shipping disruption on global wheat supplies.

The US administration is now switching its focus to a campaign of “economic fury” in an effort to achieve its strategic aims against Iran. It is not obvious that this latest phase of the conflict is any more likely to result in a quick and easy US victory than the kinetic war. However, the economic implications of a prolonged stand-off may be less ominous than they at first appear.

As Chinese artificial intelligence models begin to compete with US models in many real-world tasks, Beijing is determined to build an alternative to Washington’s emerging AI ecosystem. It is pledging to help countries in the Global South develop their own AI capabilities, leveraging its technological clout for commercial and geopolitical gain. China’s cheaper models will prove popular but only if Beijing can maintain its commitment to “openness,” writes Tom Miller. Meanwhile, Tom Holland argues that Iran is attempting to drive a wedge between the US and the Gulf Arab states as it seeks to become the regional hegemon