Following three days in which Iran and the United States traded military strikes in the Persian Gulf, technical talks between the two sides are scheduled to resume. However, material progress towards a lasting peace will be impossible so long as a power vacuum at the top exacerbates divisions within the Iranian regime. The resulting uncertainty means rebuilding petroleum reserves is a strategic imperative for oil importers, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Tom Miller analyzes Trump’s renewed attempt to squeeze US trade partners in the latest round of the tariff war.

Markets continue to behave as if the world has not fundamentally changed, even as inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and global capital flows enter a new regime. Anatole argues that investors are systematically mispricing four major shifts: the long-term outlook for inflation and bond yields, the global growth cycle, the rotation from AI-led growth to cyclical value and the end of US exceptionalism.

With tensions cooling in the Middle East, global attention is shifting elsewhere. In Latin America’s rambunctious political landscape, electorates continue to vote in right-wing leaders. But the wave may yet break before it reaches Brazil, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite to win his fourth term in October’s election, says Tom Miller. Back in the Strait of Hormuz, Tom Holland explains why Iran’s emerging protection racket sets a dangerous precedent for global trade.