Donald Trump has high hopes that his putative deal with Vladimir Putin to resume Russia’s exports of diesel will bring down global—and US—prices. But, as Tom Holland explains, it will not be enough to restore “normality” to global diesel prices into 2027. In addition, Tom Miller examines the US government’s attempt to forge a trade bloc to counter Chinese industrial overcapacity, and Udith Sikand looks at the impact of Washington’s latest restrictions on the H-1B visa program.

After the average US pump price for diesel topped US$6.50 per gallon, politicians are increasingly calling for restrictions on US fuel exports in a bid to bring down prices for businesses and consumers ahead of November’s midterm elections. But while export controls might provide some temporary relief, any reduction in US prices will be short-lived, and will come at the cost of intense pain among US trading partners.

Leaders from the Gulf Arab states are scheduled to meet Donald Trump Tuesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. If they cannot get any clarity from the US president on when they will be able to resume uninterrupted energy exports, they will increasingly look elsewhere for economic security, argues Tom Holland, even to the extent of seeking an independent deal with Iran. Then, after meeting the Gulf leaders Tuesday, Trump is due to sit down with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Washington Thursday. Tom Miller looks at what will be up for discussion, and what the summit is likely to deliver.