With the US-Iran war now five months old, and with no negotiated peace in sight, energy-importing economies must face up to the prospect that supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter approaches. With the European Union’s stores of natural gas already unusually depleted for the time of year, Tom Holland considers the possible consequences for Europe’s economies.

One upshot of the wars in the Persian Gulf and Ukraine is that the US oil and gas industry is booming. The drawback is that US consumers are paying twice Trump's target price for gasoline. With the midterms approaching, there is a risk the US administration might decide export controls are the only way to square the circle, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Cedric Gemehl looks at how Germany is warming to the idea of protectionist measures to insulate its industries from Chinese competition.

Following three days in which Iran and the United States traded military strikes in the Persian Gulf, technical talks between the two sides are scheduled to resume. However, material progress towards a lasting peace will be impossible so long as a power vacuum at the top exacerbates divisions within the Iranian regime. The resulting uncertainty means rebuilding petroleum reserves is a strategic imperative for oil importers, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Tom Miller analyzes Trump’s renewed attempt to squeeze US trade partners in the latest round of the tariff war.