Gavekal Technologies: New Energy

China is the world’s biggest builder of nuclear power plants, but unlike in other energy sectors it has not become a significant exporter of reactors. While Chinese nuclear firms have figured out how to make reactors relatively cheaply, the complexity and safety needs of nuclear projects mean they will never be able to gobble up world markets through ultralow prices, as Chinese solar, EV and battery firms have done. But over the next decade it is likely China will become an important nuclear exporter.

On September 6-11, Gavekal Technologies held its inaugural China Tech Tour with 19 institutional-investor clients. Through a dozen site visits and in-depth conversations with senior executives, we examined China’s semiconductor, AI, new energy, robotics and biotechnology industries. This week’s China Tech Brief explores some of the key findings. By far the biggest theme was the gap between technological capabilities and corporate returns. China has plenty of globally competitive tech companies, but few that generate really attractive earnings.

On September 6-11, Gavekal Technologies made its inaugural China Tech Trip with 19 institutional investor clients. The trip offered a close-up view of China’s tech ecosystem, including semiconductors, AI, new energy, robotics, and biotech, via a dozen site visits and in-depth conversations with senior executives. This week’s Chips report summarizes our observations in the semiconductor and AI sectors.

Chinese EV makers have conquered their home market and are on track to export over 5mn vehicles this year, double the 2025 figure. Their next move will be to start moving production offshore, to get closer to key markets and evade tariffs. The biggest target is Europe, where half a dozen projects are under way and many more are planned.

As presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their summit meeting in Washington, China’s fast-growing technology capabilities are a major topic. The big questions at the moment are how close Chinese artificial-intelligence labs are to matching the US frontier models, and whether the two sides can start negotiating rules on AI safety. But behind those lie even bigger questions: What is the balance of technological power between the US and China? And how far can the world's two big tech powers go in pulling apart the thick webs of interdependence that tie them together?

Both China and the US have devoted intense energy to slashing their technological reliance on each other. These efforts have had some impact, but the overall lesson is that decoupling is really difficult and even as old dependencies are cut, new ones pop up. This China Tech Brief examines the underlying causes.