Videos

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised hackles in the European Union, where politicians complain that US green subsidies unfairly tilt the playing field to the disadvantage of European companies. The dispute threatens to jeopardize US efforts to enlist European support for Washington’s economic confrontation with China.

China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.

Over the last 12 months, the eurozone’s trade balance has swung from surplus into a deficit. And energy prices are only part of the reason. Nick explains that the eurozone is also suffering a structural decline in its manufacturing competitiveness that will to weigh on growth for years to come.

With affordability at a near 40-year low, demand for US housing has faded and homebuilders’ confidence has evaporated. In this video interview, Kai Xian explains how bad things could get and presents an investing strategy that could work even in very bad market conditions.

In a growth-challenged world, India stands out as something of a bright spot. The economy is hardly firing on all cylinders but there are signs of a new investment cycle starting to unfold. Tom recently did a research trip in the country for the first time since the pandemic and in this interview explains his findings.

After two years locked away behind Covid controls, Hong Kong is reopening to the world. Arthur knows the city well and has just spent two weeks there meeting entrepreneurs and financiers. In this interview he explains his conditional optimism that the city still has an important role to play as a financial center for China.

Brazil will go into a second-round presidential election run-off at the end of the month with two candidates offering two quite different models of governance and economic management. Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also likely to have very different relationships with China, which Tom argues could be material in assessing Brazil’s economic outlook.

After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.

Hong Kong is finally moving towards reopening to the wider world, if not yet to mainland China. Yet Hong Kong’s economy and assets are getting squeezed by higher US interest rates imported via the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this interview, Vincent examines the different forces at work driving Hong Kong’s macro and markets.

On Thursday the Ethereum blockchain underwent the “merge”, moving from a proof-of-work based system to proof-of-stake. This cut its energy usage by -99.9% and slashed the issuance of new ether. Will explains what that means for ether’s in-universe money supply, and how it might make the cryptocurrency more attractive to investors, or spenders.

In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.

The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?

Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.

Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.

As renewed Covid outbreaks curtail activity and the labor market starts to normalize, the US economy is no longer generating big upside growth surprises. Will the Federal Reserve defer its retreat from super-easy monetary policy, and what will come of the Biden administration's fiscal strategy?

Even by China’s high standards, 2021 has seen an extraordinary amount of government intervention in the economy, as top leader Xi Jinping moves aggressively to implement his vision of national greatness. In this webinar our China team assess the impact on the economy and markets, and discuss what could cause this crackdown to pause or reverse.

The US growth outlook may be softening as the reopening boom weakens but equity markets seem relaxed as this outcome could delay the day when monetary stimulus is withdrawn. In our sign-off webinar for August, Gavekal partners asked if markets are right in their benign assessment, or whether a nasty surprise could emerge over the usually quiet summer months.

The US has taken an approach to the pandemic that involves reopening and “living with Covid”, whereas most East Asian economies are heading down the "zero-Covid" path. Europe seems to be caught between these two stools. Which way Europe turns could have a big impact on global growth, the value of the euro and key asset values.

The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector. Our team assessed the market implications of these trends.