Videos

On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.

Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.

Headline inflation in the UK has started to moderate just as wages rise in a material way. That is giving rise to concerns about a wage-price spiral and is likely to constrain any monetary easing moves made by the Bank of England. In this video, Nick assesses what the dynamic means for the UK economy and for an already stressed gilt market.

Despite 525bp of interest rate hikes in less than 18 months, far from sliding into recession as many observers expected, the US economy continues to grow at a respectable if unspectacular rate and unemployment remains close to 50-year lows at just 3.5%. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian digs into what is different about this cycle of monetary tightening—and what remains the same.

US treasury yields have risen to the top of their trading range since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on Tuesday. It comes as the US Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of new debt to fund US government deficits. Kai Xian assesses the resulting change in the liquidity environment and what this means for investors.

The likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta have embraced generative artificial intelligence applications, but workers are fearful for their jobs and governments are threatening to regulate the industry. Will examines the possible macro impacts of the generative AI boom and compares it to previous examples of disruptive technological breakthroughs.

In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany’s relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin’s previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.

There are increasing signs that the Indian government’s focus on investment spending, is starting to “crowd-in” private investment and spur consumption. Moreover, inflation is cooling, paving the way for monetary policy to be eased. In this interview, Udith assesses India’s prospects and explains what this improving macro-outlook means for India’s already highly performing asset markets.

The lawless behavior seen on French streets last week was shocking, but not unprecedented. Cedric contends that in the short term, this episode is unlikely to materially impact the economy or financial markets in France. However, the evident fragmentation of French politics—and society—will make it more difficult for the government to handle the country’s worsening fiscal situation.

As the mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow, there was a deafening silence from Russia’s biggest neighbor. China has been a key economic support for Russia even as it attempts to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but during the tense stand-off, Chinese officials lent no public support to Putin’s regime. Yanmei unpacks the China-Russia relationship and assesses how things are likely to progress.

Tom Holland warned that a further fall in the supply of Russian piped natural gas could lead to energy rationing for European industry. Vincent Tsui and Udith Sikand surveyed the emerging market landscape to determine the winners and losers from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve. Tom Miller reviewed Russia-China relations.

As European economies emerge from the pandemic, policymakers have signaled a sooner-than-expected normalization of monetary policy, which has spooked investors. In this webinar, our team evaluated if the ECB is serious about raising interest rates later this year and whether this looks like a 2011-style policy mistake in the making.

The US economy is enduring growth pains from supply chain disruption and a tight labor market that are feeding into higher inflation, and therefore a more hawkish central bank. Yet with both households and companies in generally good financial shape, these problems can be weathered, and US growth should remain above its structural rate for a while yet. Our US analysts outlined their relatively upbeat view in this webinar and explained what it means for asset markets.

Energy prices are likely to have a big impact on macroeconomics and market performance in the coming year. Our research team has assessed the effect of three different pricing scenarios on the US, Europe and emerging economies. In this webinar, they presented their findings.

China enters 2022 having made a very apparent shift in policy toward supporting economic stability, but it still has very obvious growth problems. The construction downturn is deepening, Covid restrictions are spreading and reliable growth engines could be fading. Is the government’s measured and moderate strategy up to the task?

Louis is convinced that the trend of higher energy prices, steeper yield curves and value stock outperformance is here to stay—at least until some major event comes along to change the story. Anatole, by contrast, continues to think that the inflation surge is about to be revealed as a scare and reckons that strong earnings growth will soon be driving a resurgence in growth stocks.

In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.