Videos

There are tentative signs that the US housing downturn is flattening out, however, Will is not convinced that an upswing now beckons. He worries that US housing remains unaffordable by historical standards and the new home market is moderately oversupplied. As a member of the US recession camp, he worries that a looming deterioration in the labor market will reinforce these negative drivers.

Over the last decade, the eurozone banking system relied on emergency lending facilities that made liquidity freely available and predictably priced. Today, the ECB is both winding down its quantitative easing and allowing liquidity operations to expire. That will force European banks to rely on each other for interbank lending. In this video, Nick explores what that means for banks and investors alike.

The reduction in a key measure of interbank liquidity in Hong Kong and a weakening of the Hong Kong dollar has led some investors to conclude that trouble looms for the Asian financial center. In this video interview, Vincent explains why the real victim of “normalization” in the Hong Kong dollar market may not be the currency peg but the local property market.

Worsening US-China relations presents both a threat and an opportunity to other Asian economies. Many non-China producers will lose out if the re-onshoring trend gathers pace. On the other hand, Western producers’ move to seek new supplier networks represents a major opportunity.

The Opec+ petroleum exporters’ cartel is cutting back its crude production and China's reopening evokes memories of how previous Chinese rebound drove oil demand. But is that the case today? Tom weighs the conflicting forces driving oil demand and supply, and assesses the outlook for prices over the remainder of 2023.

Emmanuel Macron’s domestic reform agenda looks to have met its Waterloo over massive popular opposition to pension reform. In this video interview, Cedric takes stock of Macron’s presidency and explains what it means for France’s economic prospects in the next four years.

In last week’s video interview, Louis Gave argued that the problem affecting banks was concentrated in the US and did not really deserve the moniker “crisis”. Tan Kai Xian agrees that banking problems are mostly focused in the US, but he worries that this will prove to be a rolling crisis whose effects worsen as it develops.

Three weeks into the “banking crisis”, Louis takes stock of the reaction from asset markets and considers how investors should be positioning themselves.

China’s hotly anticipated economic indicators for January and February, released this week, revealed for the first time the state of the economic recovery after the reopening from Covid containment. Christopher unpacks what the data show and the likely trajectory for growth this year.

The US yield curve has not been this severely inverted since 1981, giving rise to fears that a recession in the world’s biggest economy may be nigh. Yield curve inversions do not always signal a recession, but every recession since the mid-1960s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Will explains why that is the case and what it means for asset allocators.

In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.

In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.

The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.

As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?

At November's Global Investment Roundtable, Gavekal’s senior team convened to discuss the global macro environment as energy prices continue to rise and the US Federal Reserve gets closer to winding down its monetary accommodation.

Europe is in the grips of an energy crisis that is disrupting multiple industries and acting as an effective tax on consumption. In addition to broader supply chain bottlenecks, the worry is that these factors choke off Europe's nascent economic recovery. In this webinar our team of analysts assess these dynamics.

The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances. Will and KX set out what these all these shifts—as well as rising inflation, tightening labor markets and deteriorating housing affordability—mean for US stock and bond markets.