Videos

In the wake of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Brent crude is trading at around US$87/bbl. That’s US$10/bbl lower than in late September. In this video interview, Tom Holland explores the reasons why the price of oil has failed to break through the US$100/bbl barrier and examines whether an escalation of the Gaza conflict could yet drive a painful spike in global prices.

As we enter October, historically a stormy season for financial markets, there are ominous signs that the recent steep sell-off in US treasury bonds is beginning to have an increasingly severe effect on other asset markets. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian looks at which sectors of the stock market are most at risk and assesses the probability of a sharp rise in broad equity volatility accompanied by an abrupt fall in prices.

In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this video interview, Louis explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major equity indexes under pressure, investors can seek safety amid the turbulence.

After August’s panic about a possible economic implosion in China has died down, Christopher Beddor offers a sober assessment of the current outlook. Growth momentum appears to be stabilizing, and the authorities are easing real estate market policy. However, the financial weakness of developers continues to put strains on less visible parts of the financial sector.

Five years ago, the effective ruler of Saudi Arabia, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, was ostracized by Western nations as an international pariah. Today, MBS, as the prince is known, is in demand from all sides.

On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.

Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.

Headline inflation in the UK has started to moderate just as wages rise in a material way. That is giving rise to concerns about a wage-price spiral and is likely to constrain any monetary easing moves made by the Bank of England. In this video, Nick assesses what the dynamic means for the UK economy and for an already stressed gilt market.

Despite 525bp of interest rate hikes in less than 18 months, far from sliding into recession as many observers expected, the US economy continues to grow at a respectable if unspectacular rate and unemployment remains close to 50-year lows at just 3.5%. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian digs into what is different about this cycle of monetary tightening—and what remains the same.

US treasury yields have risen to the top of their trading range since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on Tuesday. It comes as the US Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of new debt to fund US government deficits. Kai Xian assesses the resulting change in the liquidity environment and what this means for investors.

Tom Holland warned that a further fall in the supply of Russian piped natural gas could lead to energy rationing for European industry. Vincent Tsui and Udith Sikand surveyed the emerging market landscape to determine the winners and losers from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve. Tom Miller reviewed Russia-China relations.

As European economies emerge from the pandemic, policymakers have signaled a sooner-than-expected normalization of monetary policy, which has spooked investors. In this webinar, our team evaluated if the ECB is serious about raising interest rates later this year and whether this looks like a 2011-style policy mistake in the making.

The US economy is enduring growth pains from supply chain disruption and a tight labor market that are feeding into higher inflation, and therefore a more hawkish central bank. Yet with both households and companies in generally good financial shape, these problems can be weathered, and US growth should remain above its structural rate for a while yet. Our US analysts outlined their relatively upbeat view in this webinar and explained what it means for asset markets.

Energy prices are likely to have a big impact on macroeconomics and market performance in the coming year. Our research team has assessed the effect of three different pricing scenarios on the US, Europe and emerging economies. In this webinar, they presented their findings.

China enters 2022 having made a very apparent shift in policy toward supporting economic stability, but it still has very obvious growth problems. The construction downturn is deepening, Covid restrictions are spreading and reliable growth engines could be fading. Is the government’s measured and moderate strategy up to the task?

Louis is convinced that the trend of higher energy prices, steeper yield curves and value stock outperformance is here to stay—at least until some major event comes along to change the story. Anatole, by contrast, continues to think that the inflation surge is about to be revealed as a scare and reckons that strong earnings growth will soon be driving a resurgence in growth stocks.

In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.