Videos

Crypto-currency prices have plunged in the last two weeks on a bad brew of news. Will wants to believe in crypto-currencies as an alternative form of money. However, he has struggled to see how such tokens make the jump to being “money”, with all that entails. The question is whether after such a big price drawdown, this skepticism is now discounted into the price.

Many Asian countries face a worsening Covid outbreak, even as the region’s mostly commodity-importing economies face sharply rising prices for energy and raw materials. Asia did go into this crisis with significant policy headroom, so it retains room for action but as Udith and Vincent discuss in this video interview that is now narrowing.

Hailed as a breakthrough when it was struck back in December, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement On Investment is in trouble, with little chance the deal will be ratified in the European Parliament amid a deep deterioration in bilateral relations. Nick examines what the political frost means for the earnings of European companies operating in China.

If India's latest Covid wave peaks in the next few weeks, economic catastrophe can be avoided. However, India does not have much policy space in which to operate, so the counter scenario of new and more virile mutations driving a worsening outbreak does mean that hitherto stoic local investors could yet throw in the towel on Indian risk assets.

With a shoot-the-lights-out number universally expected when the US reports first quarter GDP data this week, Tan Kai Xian looks at the drivers propelling growth to determine whether US performance is sustainable, or just a flash in the pan. As a number of risks continue to loom large on the radar screen, in this video interview he assesses the implications of US growth for investors in risk assets.

With Joe Biden in the White House, international proposals for a global minimum corporate tax rate are back on the table. In this video interview, Yanmei Xie and Udith Sikand weigh the probability of agreement on a global tax rate, assess the degree of resistance, and look at who will really end up bearing the burden of higher effective corporate tax rates.

English consumers have this week embraced the end of lockdown and the reopening of non-essential services. Across Britain, a successful vaccination drive has raised hopes that drastically reduced Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations can be sustained as further restrictions are eased. In this video interview, Nick outlines what that is likely to mean for UK assets.

For a president with a scant majority of one in the US Senate, Joe Biden has an extremely ambitious legislative agenda, starting with a US$2trn infrastructure spending and tax bill. Yanmei examines the procedural shortcuts and political roadblocks that may either smooth or obstruct Biden’s proposed legislation to assess how much of the program is actually likely to make it into US law.

What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.

Concluding a long-awaited policy review, last week the Bank of Japan signaled that after almost a decade of pursuing titanic quantitative easing targets, it will be looking to make fewer asset purchases from now on. In this short video interview, Udith weighs the implications for Japan’s economy, its bond market, the yen, and Japanese equities.

Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

As the European Union’s vaccination program stumbles from one misstep to another, investors are being forced to put back their expectations for European economic recovery, while a procurement scandal in Germany raises the probability that the pandemic will have a long-term effect on the EU’s political landscape. Anatole, Cedric and Nick examined the near-term market impact and long-term economic policy implications.

Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In yesterday's webinar Will and KX will assessed the US macro environment and examined whether the rotations in favor of value stocks and Covid-losers have further to run.

The annual session of China's National People's Congress has wrapped up with the approval of a new five-year plan, a sweeping document that promises not only technological self-sufficiency but a different style of economic management in coming years. In this webinar, our China experts unpacked what these grand promises really mean, and also discussed the substantial recent correction in Chinese equities and where markets are headed from here.

With the release of pent-up demand and more fiscal spending, India's economy is rebounding sharply. Its growth potential is also being raised by a new push towards privatization and an industrial policy that supports manufacturers. The question is whether India can overcome institutional lethargy and make these policies work. Tom and Udith addressed such issues and the latest market developments impacting sub-continent assets.

As Covid-19 vaccinations are cranked up and Congress gets ready to dole out stimulus measures, US growth expectations have risen along with inflation concerns. In response, bonds have sold off and equity markets have shuddered. In our monthly global investment roundtable, Gavekal partners discussed this confluence of events and addressed what it means for risk assets.

Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked whether Italy's Damascene conversion is for real.

Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have their day in the sun.

Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.