Videos

Interviews

Video: A South China Sea October Surprise?

Video: A South China Sea October Surprise?

27 Aug 2020
Tensions in the South China Sea between the US and China are ramping up during a presidential campaign where the incumbent has set himself on a collision course with China. You do not have to be a crazed conspiracy theorist to wonder if this theatre could be the scene of an “October Surprise”.
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Video: The State Of The US Recovery

Video: The State Of The US Recovery

20 Aug 2020
Pandemic aside, the US faces a looming fiscal cliff and rising political risk as the presidential election campaign starts proper. So why is Will so sanguine about the country’s economic prospects? In this video interview, he explains his position.
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Video: A Joe Biden Presidency?

Video: A Joe Biden Presidency?

6 Aug 2020
With the US presidential election less than three months away, polling suggests Joe Biden and the Democrats have a chance at a clean sweep of the White House and Congress. While Biden has been open about wanting to raise taxes and tackle climate change, he would inherit an economy still reeling from the coronavirus shock. With this in mind, Yanmei outlines what the 100 first days of a Biden presidency are likely to look like.
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Video: The Hong Kong Sanctions Regime

Video: The Hong Kong Sanctions Regime

29 Jul 2020
As US-China tensions amp up, Hong Kong faces US actions in response to the national security law imposed by the Chinese government. This includes an end to preferential trade treatment and penalties for foreign financial institutions that transact with officials found to be undermining the city’s freedoms. In this video interview, Dan explains how the program will play out and addresses the question of whether the US government will target Hong Kong’s core financial activities and risk a major crisis of confidence.
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Video: A Fiscal Cliff Approaches

Video: A Fiscal Cliff Approaches

23 Jul 2020
With the Covid-19 outbreak in the US still worsening, special unemployment benefits that have provided a lifeline for 17mn Americans stand to expire at the end of next week. Yet unlike in March, there is scant appetite in Washington DC for a swift bipartisan deal to extend support for the jobless. In this video interview, Yanmei explains what is at stake for the US economy if politicians cannot make a deal before heading off for their summer recess.
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Video: Singapore's Policy Path

Video: Singapore's Policy Path

16 Jul 2020
Just days after securing another five years in power at the ballot box, Singapore’s government announced that the island republic’s gross domestic product contracted a worse-than-expected -12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, with large accumulated fiscal reserves, the government has considerable scope to spend in order to stimulate Singapore’s economy.
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Video: What To Make Of Britain’s £30bn Stimulus

Video: What To Make Of Britain’s £30bn Stimulus

9 Jul 2020
This week UK Chancellor of the Exchequer “Dishy” Rishi Sunak lived up to his media nickname, dishing out an additional £30bn in fiscal support and stimulus measures. In this short video interview, Nick assesses their likely impact.
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Video: Singapore Beyond July's Election

Video: Singapore Beyond July's Election

1 Jul 2020
Although a new opposition political party is making Singapore’s current election season somewhat more interesting than past campaigns, the outcome is not in doubt: the ruling People’s Action Party will be confirmed in power for another five-year term. In this short video interview, Vincent looks beyond the July 10 poll to survey the economic and market outlook for the island republic.
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Video: Behind The Resilience Of Hong Kong's Markets

Video: Behind The Resilience Of Hong Kong's Markets

24 Jun 2020
Hong Kong has been beset by a string of bad news, from mass street protests, through Covid-19, to national security legislation of unknown scope and severity imposed by the mainland. Yet you wouldn’t guess it from looking at the city’s property market—the world’s priciest—or its stock market where several mainland tech companies are lining up to do their initial public offerings. Vincent explains the disconnect.
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Video: High Stakes In The Himalayas

Video: High Stakes In The Himalayas

18 Jun 2020
In this video, Udith argues that the mayhem seen on the India-China border this week will provide another catalyst for Indian nationalists who want to lessen the country’s reliance on China, even if that means accepting far slower economic growth.
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Events

 
Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law

Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law

26 Nov 2020
Hong Kong has spent five months living under a tough national security law imposed on it from Beijing. The direct impact has been a sharp curtailment of opposition political activity that has sparked sanctions from the United States. Now, China has plans for more changes to Hong Kong's legal system, with a requirement for judges to be patriots. In yesterday’s webinar, Vincent Tsui, Dan Wang, Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard discussed the longer-run game being played by Beijing and assessed the impact on Hong Kong as an international financial center.
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Webinar: Europe And The Second Wave

Webinar: Europe And The Second Wave

20 Nov 2020
European markets were ebullient earlier this week on news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine may be approved for use early next year. In the meantime, regional lockdowns aimed at curbing the escalating pandemic threatens Europe's economic recovery. This all but guarantees loose monetary and fiscal policy for the foreseeable future. In yesterday's webinar Nick and Cedric discussed how this shakes out for investors.
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Webinar: China After The Recovery

Webinar: China After The Recovery

13 Nov 2020
Having gone into lockdown first, China was also the first economy to emerge, and has since enjoyed a rapid rebound in industrial production and exports, reflected in financial markets. But now that the economy is back to “normal”, policymakers have returned to a conservative stance which focuses on financial stability.
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Webinar: US Election & Global Investment Roundtable (in French)

Webinar: US Election & Global Investment Roundtable (in French)

5 Nov 2020
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Didier Darcet and Cedric Gemehl delved into the results of the US election, and discussed the latest impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and markets. Additionally, they presented Gavekal’s latest research on portfolio construction.
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Webinar: The 2020 US Election

Webinar: The 2020 US Election

5 Nov 2020
With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.
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Webinar: Facing Down US Risks

Webinar: Facing Down US Risks

30 Oct 2020
The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.
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Webinar: China's Fintech Showdown

Webinar: China's Fintech Showdown

28 Oct 2020
China’s financial technology industry has been chaotic for two decades, with Ant Group launching pioneering new products while regulators and competitors play catch-up. With Ant Group ready for its IPO, the push-and-pull between the firm and regulators is grabbing institutional investors’ attention. Matthew Forney and Laila Khawaja of Gavekal Fathom China addressed this tension and also the broader impact of regulation on the country's fintech industry.
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Webinar: Divergence In Emerging Markets

Webinar: Divergence In Emerging Markets

22 Oct 2020
Emerging markets have had very different pandemic experiences and the effects are showing up in economic data and market performance. Northeast Asian economies offer strong growth opportunities while southeast Asia is muddling through in a way that favors bond investors. The good news in Asia is that struggling economies such as India and Indonesia are pursuing reform initiatives. The picture is less rosy in Latin America, while Turkey offers the potential for a macro shock to emerge.
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Webinar: Understanding Chinese State Capitalism

Webinar: Understanding Chinese State Capitalism

16 Oct 2020
The advance of the private sector and the retreat of the state sector has been central to China’s long transformation from an isolated socialist nation to a globally connected economy. Yet the notions of China’s private sector being either in the ascendency, or facing a squeeze in the statist Xi Jinping era are not born out by the facts. Andrew Batson discussed the findings in his recent major piece of research on this topic.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2020

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2020

9 Oct 2020
Yanmei Xie discussed the US team’s assessment of risks surrounding the US election, Anatole Kaletsky explained the reasons for his return to bullishness and Louis Gave talked about global asset allocation and how to find “anti-fragile” assets.
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