Videos

Interviews

 
Video: Can Italy Recover?

Video: Can Italy Recover?

1 Jul 2021
Nick Andrews
In response to the Covid economic shock, the European Union has vowed to adopt more expansive fiscal responses and limited mutualization of national debts. The country where this approach will fall, or rise is Italy. In this interview, Nick offers a view on whether it will be enough for Italy to mount a comeback.
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Video: The US Housing Sector Rolls Over

Video: The US Housing Sector Rolls Over

25 Jun 2021
Tan Kai Xian
The US housing market has been booming for the past year, with prices setting a record-high in data released this week. However, a decline in affordability, coupled with the potential for higher mortgage rates, is weighing on demand and has started to force a shift from a buyer-led market to a renter-led market.
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Video: The New Normal For Antitrust

Video: The New Normal For Antitrust

18 Jun 2021
Yanmei Xie
Earlier this week, outspoken “Big Tech” critic Lina Khan was named chair of the Federal Trade Commission after a bipartisan vote. In this interview, Yanmei assesses to what degree this signals a harder line on antitrust issues by the Biden administration, and whether the US’s big tech firms have reason to be worried.
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Video: Weighing The Fed’s Unconventional Options

Video: Weighing The Fed’s Unconventional Options

9 Jun 2021
Will Denyer
The Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to be verbal guidance over a tapering of asset purchases, argues Will. That is increasingly a consensus market position, so in this interview he explores other policy options that the Fed could choose to pursue.
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Video: Fixing China’s Population Crunch

Video: Fixing China’s Population Crunch

4 Jun 2021
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
China’s latest census revealed a low fertility rate, pointing to the population soon topping out. In response, the government has said that couples can now have up to three children but, as things stand, there is no reason to think that they will. In this video interview, Gilliam assesses the various policy levers that the authorities can pull to stop the Chinese nation getting smaller.
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Video: Buy The Crypto Dip?

Video: Buy The Crypto Dip?

25 May 2021
Will Denyer
Crypto-currency prices have plunged in the last two weeks on a bad brew of news. Will wants to believe in crypto-currencies as an alternative form of money. However, he has struggled to see how such tokens make the jump to being “money”, with all that entails. The question is whether after such a big price drawdown, this skepticism is now discounted into the price.
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Video: Renewed Covid Changes Asia’s Macro Drivers

Video: Renewed Covid Changes Asia’s Macro Drivers

19 May 2021
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui
Many Asian countries face a worsening Covid outbreak, even as the region’s mostly commodity-importing economies face sharply rising prices for energy and raw materials. Asia did go into this crisis with significant policy headroom, so it retains room for action but as Udith and Vincent discuss in this video interview that is now narrowing.
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Video: The Chill In EU-China Relations

Video: The Chill In EU-China Relations

12 May 2021
Nick Andrews
Hailed as a breakthrough when it was struck back in December, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement On Investment is in trouble, with little chance the deal will be ratified in the European Parliament amid a deep deterioration in bilateral relations. Nick examines what the political frost means for the earnings of European companies operating in China.
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Video: The Economic Impact Of India's Second Wave

Video: The Economic Impact Of India's Second Wave

7 May 2021
Udith Sikand
If India's latest Covid wave peaks in the next few weeks, economic catastrophe can be avoided. However, India does not have much policy space in which to operate, so the counter scenario of new and more virile mutations driving a worsening outbreak does mean that hitherto stoic local investors could yet throw in the towel on Indian risk assets.
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Video: Towards A Sustainable Boom?

Video: Towards A Sustainable Boom?

28 Apr 2021
Tan Kai Xian
With a shoot-the-lights-out number universally expected when the US reports first quarter GDP data this week, Tan Kai Xian looks at the drivers propelling growth to determine whether US performance is sustainable, or just a flash in the pan. As a number of risks continue to loom large on the radar screen, in this video interview he assesses the implications of US growth for investors in risk assets.
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Events

 
Webinar: The Macro And Market Implications Of Europe’s Pandemic Response Shambles

Webinar: The Macro And Market Implications Of Europe’s Pandemic Response Shambles

2 Apr 2021
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
As the European Union’s vaccination program stumbles from one misstep to another, investors are being forced to put back their expectations for European economic recovery, while a procurement scandal in Germany raises the probability that the pandemic will have a long-term effect on the EU’s political landscape. Anatole, Cedric and Nick examined the near-term market impact and long-term economic policy implications.
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Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

26 Mar 2021
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In yesterday's webinar Will and KX will assessed the US macro environment and examined whether the rotations in favor of value stocks and Covid-losers have further to run.
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Webinar: Making Sense Of China’s Grand Plans

Webinar: Making Sense Of China’s Grand Plans

19 Mar 2021
Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley, Dan Wang, Ernan Cui
The annual session of China's National People's Congress has wrapped up with the approval of a new five-year plan, a sweeping document that promises not only technological self-sufficiency but a different style of economic management in coming years. In this webinar, our China experts unpacked what these grand promises really mean, and also discussed the substantial recent correction in Chinese equities and where markets are headed from here.
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Webinar: The Shape Of India's Recovery

Webinar: The Shape Of India's Recovery

12 Mar 2021
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
With the release of pent-up demand and more fiscal spending, India's economy is rebounding sharply. Its growth potential is also being raised by a new push towards privatization and an industrial policy that supports manufacturers. The question is whether India can overcome institutional lethargy and make these policies work. Tom and Udith addressed such issues and the latest market developments impacting sub-continent assets.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, March 2021

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, March 2021

5 Mar 2021
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave
As Covid-19 vaccinations are cranked up and Congress gets ready to dole out stimulus measures, US growth expectations have risen along with inflation concerns. In response, bonds have sold off and equity markets have shuddered. In our monthly global investment roundtable, Gavekal partners discussed this confluence of events and addressed what it means for risk assets.
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Webinar: Europe And The Politics Of Exiting The Pandemic

Webinar: Europe And The Politics Of Exiting The Pandemic

26 Feb 2021
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked whether Italy's Damascene conversion is for real.
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Webinar: Emerging Markets In The Next Phase Of The Pandemic

Webinar: Emerging Markets In The Next Phase Of The Pandemic

19 Feb 2021
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui, Tom Miller
Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have their day in the sun.
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Webinar: The Economic Impact Of A New Era

Webinar: The Economic Impact Of A New Era

10 Feb 2021
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.
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Webinar: Uncharted Territory And Portfolio Construction

Webinar: Uncharted Territory And Portfolio Construction

5 Feb 2021
Charles Gave, Didier Darcet, Louis-Vincent Gave
Charles has sought to codify his many investment rules into a rigorous portfolio construction framework, which includes identifying periods when returns stop being normally distributed and move into the "tails". Right now markets could be going through a phase change, and in this webinar, he explained why. He was joined by Didier, who who heads the quant team in Paris, and Louis.
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Webinar: French-Language Webinar, January 2021

Webinar: French-Language Webinar, January 2021

29 Jan 2021
Charles Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet
With Europe being hit hard by a second wave of Covid-19 and facing fresh lockdowns, Charles and Cedric assessed the outlook for the region’s growth and inflation in both the short and medium term. The webinar also focused on portfolio construction work being done by our Paris team: quantitative head of research Didier and Charles trained their sights on behavioral finance and suggested a route map for managing money in a “post-Keynesian” world.
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