Videos

With the Covid-19 outbreak in the US still worsening, special unemployment benefits that have provided a lifeline for 17mn Americans stand to expire at the end of next week. Yet unlike in March, there is scant appetite in Washington DC for a swift bipartisan deal to extend support for the jobless. In this video interview, Yanmei explains what is at stake for the US economy if politicians cannot make a deal before heading off for their summer recess.

Just days after securing another five years in power at the ballot box, Singapore’s government announced that the island republic’s gross domestic product contracted a worse-than-expected -12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, with large accumulated fiscal reserves, the government has considerable scope to spend in order to stimulate Singapore’s economy.

This week UK Chancellor of the Exchequer “Dishy” Rishi Sunak lived up to his media nickname, dishing out an additional £30bn in fiscal support and stimulus measures. In this short video interview, Nick assesses their likely impact.

Although a new opposition political party is making Singapore’s current election season somewhat more interesting than past campaigns, the outcome is not in doubt: the ruling People’s Action Party will be confirmed in power for another five-year term. In this short video interview, Vincent looks beyond the July 10 poll to survey the economic and market outlook for the island republic.

Hong Kong has been beset by a string of bad news, from mass street protests, through Covid-19, to national security legislation of unknown scope and severity imposed by the mainland. Yet you wouldn’t guess it from looking at the city’s property market—the world’s priciest—or its stock market where several mainland tech companies are lining up to do their initial public offerings. Vincent explains the disconnect.

In this video, Udith argues that the mayhem seen on the India-China border this week will provide another catalyst for Indian nationalists who want to lessen the country’s reliance on China, even if that means accepting far slower economic growth.

The US is deepening its effort to limit Chinese technology giant Huawei’s access to components that rely on American design, which may prevent Huawei from rolling out 5G networks. The US is also broadening its efforts to constrain Mainland tech firms by using sanctions that impact suppliers to China’s government and military.

The price of Brent crude oil has doubled in the past six weeks, supported by the beginning of a recovery in demand as economies come out of lockdown and by expectations that the Opec+ cartel will extend the deep production cuts it agreed in April. Tom weighs the forces likely to drive the oil market over the coming months.

Having long resisted the lure of negative interest rates, policymakers at the Bank of England have recently admitted that they are considering a cut in the UK’s main bank rate to below zero.Nick examines the pros and cons of negative interest rates, and weighs the probability that the Bank of England will indeed enter negative rate territory for the first time.

Emerging markets have broadly weathered the liquidity squeeze that threatened to engulf them in March, however Udith is not convinced they are out of the woods. Growth shocks associated with the Covid-19 crisis mean that many smaller markets on the frontier are at risk of debt defaults, which could end up spurring forced selling by foreign investors.

Charles Gave Louis Gave, and Cedric Gemehl, along with principal of Gavekal Intelligence Software Didier Darcet, participated in a French-speaking webinar. They discussed the global investment outlook in light of the latest Covid-19 tracking data, and how to invest in a world dominated by central banks.

In Thursday's webinar, Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented the findings of RedTech's consumer surveys in China. Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui outlined the status of China's labor markets and how they relate to consumption, and Dan Wang spoke on what the Covid-19 crisis is doing to supply chains both in China and globally.

In Tuesday's webinar, Will Denyer reviewed the economic situation in the US and suggested how investors should position their portfolios, and Louis Gave presented his global macroeconomic view, taking into account the remarkable developments in the oil market.

In Thursday’s webinar, Thomas Gatley explained why China’s corporate sector is weathering the country’s downturn with relative ease and Louis Gave offered a global strategy view for investing in a Post Covid-19 world.

Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discussed the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe and the unprecedented poilcy responses taken both to combat its spread and help the economy.

Arthur Kroeber spoke on the macro situation in China. Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented their work on consumer sentiment and activity in China. Udith Sikand gave a rundown of what's happening in emerging markets.

Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

To deal with the economic fallout from unprecedented lockdown measures aimed at halting the spread of Covid-19, governments and central banks in the US and Europe are pulling out all the stops to pop up financial systems and avoid economic collapse. Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave joined Louis Gave to discuss the long term consequences.

At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

At Thursday’s webinar, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Andrew Batson discussed the Covid-19 outbreak and the consequences for financial markets and the economy.