Videos

No other G20 economy is as exposed to global trade tensions as Korea. With its heavy dependence on semiconductor manufacturing, Korea has proved vulnerable both to the US-China economic cold war, and to long-running disputes between Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, exports have cratered and economists have slashed their Korean growth forecasts.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.

Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.

Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

Even if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leave the G-20 meeting in Osaka next week with a trade deal in hand, the broader rivalry will continue. In this extensive video interview Louis identifies three ways in which China is vulnerable to US pressure and explains how this may impact investors.

The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish bond markets. Perhaps, he suggests, they are both right, but tell two different stories.

The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.

The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

Angry rhetoric between the US and Iran reached blood-curdling intensity after the US announced in late April that it wouldn't grant waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil exports. While this caused a short term spike in the oil price, it has since fallen about -8% from its high. Are oil traders too complacent about the risks, or does the market have it right?

Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview, Chen Long discusses why that is, and how far China’s currency is likely to fall if things get worse.

What is the best way to sort through the complexities of China’s enormous, continent-sized economy? In this presentation to our seminar in Hong Kong, Andrew argues that if you understand what’s going on in the housing market, then you know pretty much everything you need to know about the Chinese economy.

This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.