Videos

While the US has been busy tying itself in knots over the 2020 presidential election, the Chinese government, with no electoral calendar to worry about, has quietly been setting out its grand strategy for the country’s development over the next two decades. In this video, Gilliam cuts through the impenetrable ideological jargon to identify the key themes running through Beijing’s long term policy pronouncements.

Massive inflows of capital into Hong Kong’s financial system ahead of this week’s record-breaking US$34bn IPO for Chinese fintech giant Ant Group represent a major vote of investor confidence in Hong Kong’s future as a financial center, just months after many international commentators were writing the city’s obituary following Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law. Vincent explores the underpinnings of this confidence.

Investors in US financial assets face a panoply of concerns from political upheaval, a worsening pandemic, uncertainty over near-term fiscal stimulus and threats to the highly-rated tech sector. In this video interview, Will addresses such concerns and offers portfolio positioning advice.

Since the panicked sell-off of March, Asian emerging markets have been a relative bastion of stability. Northeast Asian equities have done well as effective pandemic control and strong export markets have powered an economic recovery, while Southeast Asia has offered bond investors solid returns as liquidity from aggressive policy easing has mostly flown into safe assets. In this video interview, Vincent discusses whether the equilibrium will be maintained and what could go wrong in the region.

The euro’s appreciation against the US dollar has stalled out as resurgent Covid-19 infections threaten new lockdown measures, and a possible upending of the economic recovery. Nick argues that the euro’s decade-long run as a “weak currency” was down to policy settings that kept domestic demand weak. A convincing reversal is not likely until those domestic drivers are again firing.

Tuesday’s ill-tempered presidential debate will only fuel claims that the US election could see massive fraudulent voting and therefore end with the result challenged in court—and maybe on the streets. Such rancor threatens the long-run viability of American democratic institutions, but in the short run Yanmei says the system can comfortably handle a contested election result.

In recent weeks some of the biggest US equity winners since the start of the Covid-19 crisis have appeared to run out of steam, as the Federal Reserve abstained from stepping up its asset purchases. Meanwhile, Congressional gridlock seems to stand in the way of renewed stimulus for American consumers. Will is not too concerned, and in this interview points out that the Fed still has ample ammunition, and that the strength of the US recovery still militates against an outright bearish view on US equities.

There are some signs that Democrats and Republicans are inching towards a new spending deal to provide "enhanced" benefits to struggling companies and unemployed Americans. Yanmei argues that such a resolution would certainly buttress demand going into the winter season but a "no deal" outcome would not necessarily spell disaster for a US economy that is learning to live with Covid-19.

While the pandemic continues to ravage the US, the last month has seen rates of infection decline across most of the country. That situation has recently reversed in some low-population Midwestern states, but on balance the US has learnt to live with Covid, and therefore a resurgence in the fall will not result in the kind of disruption seen in March and April.

Asia has handled the pandemic decently well and its solid macroeconomic fundamentals means it does not face any kind of solvency crisis. The problem for investors is that the growth outlook remains pretty grim, with limited prospects for a swift improvement. As a result, investors should stick with local currency bonds, which look well set in this environment.

At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

At Thursday’s webinar, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Andrew Batson discussed the Covid-19 outbreak and the consequences for financial markets and the economy.

Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.

At our seminar in Shanghai, Chen Long presented the outlook for China’s economy and markets. Crucially, the credit cycle appears to have bottomed out, and credit growth should accelerate towards the end of the year. He expects the overall economy to follow suit. He also covered the outlook for capital markets, equities and the renminbi.

Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.

At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Nick Andrews presented their latest views on the brewing trade war between the US and China, Chinese growth and the property market outlook, and how to capture European growth.