Videos

Hong Kong’s GDP contracted almost -9% year-on-year in the first quarter, as the impact of the coronavirus hammered an economy already severely weakened by the last year’s anti-government street protests. In this video interview, Tom examines the storms battering Asia’s premier financial center, and accounts for the resilience of its financial system.

The United States is moving towards a release from its lockdown. With individual states treading different paths, the process looks messy and accident-prone. However, Yanmei argues that investors should look through the noise of states’ rights arguments as the US is cranking up Covid-19 testing and generally heading in the right direction.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed to show up to last week’s celebration of the birthday of his grandfather, North Korea’s founder Kim Il-sung, sparking vivid speculation about his health and the chain of succession in the isolated country. In this video interview Yanmei breaks down what could happen in a power vacuum left by the supreme leader.

Eurozone finance ministers attempted to put a positive spin on the no strings €500bn Covid-19 relief package they agreed last week. But everyone is unhappy with the deal. With Italy’s debt to GDP ratio set to soar, Rome is calling for the mutualization of debt among eurozone economies; something Berlin and the Hague have ruled out.

The US government has promised unprecedented support to individuals and businesses who face loss of income as a result of Covid-19. Will Denyer weighs the measures to see if they will be enough to sufficiently limit the economic damage wrought.

The US economy can be assumed to already be in recession, yet KX is relatively confident in its ability to generate a V-shaped recovery once lockdowns are materially eased.

Along with other second-tier currencies the British pound fell steeply between early and mid-March as investors dashed to get their hands on US dollar cash. That US dollar liquidity squeeze has now eased, and sterling has found a near-term bottom. But the outlook for the British currency remains clouded amid the UK’s coronavirus lockdown.

The coronavirus pandemic, with its calls for a coordinated European Union-wide fiscal stimulus to counter the inevitable economic ill-effects, would appear to be the ideal opportunity to press forward with the next big step towards European integration by forging a eurozone fiscal union. But things are not so simple.

The breakup of the Opec+ oil cartel and the ensuing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia triggered a -30% fall in the price of oil and spooked financial markets. Moscow has upended the monopolistic pricing regime that has supported the price of oil over the last three years. Tom Holland examines the consequences of the oil market’s regime change.

This week the US federal Reserve cut interest rates to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the European Central Bank promised to follow suit with “appropriate” measures of its own. But eurozone policy rates are already negative, which severely limits the scope for further cuts.

Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.

At our seminar in Shanghai, Chen Long presented the outlook for China’s economy and markets. Crucially, the credit cycle appears to have bottomed out, and credit growth should accelerate towards the end of the year. He expects the overall economy to follow suit. He also covered the outlook for capital markets, equities and the renminbi.

Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.

At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Nick Andrews presented their latest views on the brewing trade war between the US and China, Chinese growth and the property market outlook, and how to capture European growth.

In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.