Videos

If India's latest Covid wave peaks in the next few weeks, economic catastrophe can be avoided. However, India does not have much policy space in which to operate, so the counter scenario of new and more virile mutations driving a worsening outbreak does mean that hitherto stoic local investors could yet throw in the towel on Indian risk assets.

With a shoot-the-lights-out number universally expected when the US reports first quarter GDP data this week, Tan Kai Xian looks at the drivers propelling growth to determine whether US performance is sustainable, or just a flash in the pan. As a number of risks continue to loom large on the radar screen, in this video interview he assesses the implications of US growth for investors in risk assets.

With Joe Biden in the White House, international proposals for a global minimum corporate tax rate are back on the table. In this video interview, Yanmei Xie and Udith Sikand weigh the probability of agreement on a global tax rate, assess the degree of resistance, and look at who will really end up bearing the burden of higher effective corporate tax rates.

English consumers have this week embraced the end of lockdown and the reopening of non-essential services. Across Britain, a successful vaccination drive has raised hopes that drastically reduced Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations can be sustained as further restrictions are eased. In this video interview, Nick outlines what that is likely to mean for UK assets.

For a president with a scant majority of one in the US Senate, Joe Biden has an extremely ambitious legislative agenda, starting with a US$2trn infrastructure spending and tax bill. Yanmei examines the procedural shortcuts and political roadblocks that may either smooth or obstruct Biden’s proposed legislation to assess how much of the program is actually likely to make it into US law.

What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.

Concluding a long-awaited policy review, last week the Bank of Japan signaled that after almost a decade of pursuing titanic quantitative easing targets, it will be looking to make fewer asset purchases from now on. In this short video interview, Udith weighs the implications for Japan’s economy, its bond market, the yen, and Japanese equities.

The Hong Kong stock market started 2021 as one of the world’s best performing, gaining 14% in the first six weeks of the year. In the weeks since, however, Hong Kong-listed equities have given back half those gains as sentiment has soured. In this short video interview, Vincent weighs the opposing forces at work in the local market to assess how they are likely to play out in the future.

US tech stocks have been hit hard, as attention focuses on the underlying quality of themes like the migration to electric vehicles. Yet this shakeup is also happening against the backdrop of a fast-changing investment environment due to a strengthening US growth outlook, rising inflationary pressure and an unnerved bond market which is driving yields higher. In this video interview, Will seeks to unpack these dynamics in order to navigate a course through difficult trading conditions.

Rising treasury yields are rarely a good thing for emerging markets, as this implies tighter financing conditions. The good news of sorts is that Asia's external position is strong due to buoyant exports, yet domestic demand has been constrained by the pandemic and a slow vaccine rollout.

In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui and Tom Miller joined Arthur Kroeber to present the general outlook for emerging market assets and currencies, as well as discuss the situation in India.

China research director Andrew Batson was joined by China macroeconomist Wei He and Asia analyst Vincent Tsui to discuss the news from the National People's Congress and what it means for China's economic recovery, the likely direction of fiscal and monetary policy, and the consequences of Hong Kong's national security law.

Yesterday Louis Gave, Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky joined Arthur Kroeber at the Global Investment Roundtable. They discussed different scenarios for how and when the world’s major economies can exit the Covid-19 crisis and what it means for investors.

Louis Gave, Simon Pritchard and Vincent Tsui joined Arthur Kroeber to talk about the national security law which China's National People's Congress announced it will implement in Hong Kong, and what this could mean for Hong Kong's future as a global financial center.

In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Yanmei Xie joined Simon to discuss the outlook for the US and answer viewer questions as the country tries to return to normal after Covid-19 lockdowns.

In yesterday's webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to assess policy measures to deal with Covid-19 in Europe and discuss the significance of a €500bn coronavirus Recovery Fund.

The rivalry between the US and China has taken a turn for the worse during the Covid-19 pandemic. In yesterday’s webinar, Tom Miller talked about how China has attempted to use the pandemic in its global influence strategy. Dan Wang updated viewers on the technology rivalry. And Arthur Kroeber outlined how the US-China relationship got to this point.

Most of the world’s big economies have been shut down in response to a pandemic disease—a truly unprecedented event. This led to extreme market moves and also generated an unusually large array of tail risks. Louis likens these to the nine tails of the magical kitsune or fox of Japanese mythology. In yesterday's webinar he elaborated on this idea.

China has started to reopen its economy, but it is proving hard to get Chinese consumers and small businesses up and running again. He Wei and Andrew Batson provided the latest updates on policy efforts to revive China’s economy. Udith Sikand reviewed the broader outlook for emerging markets.

So far the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have been a less significant health event in most emerging markets. Yet EMs are bound to suffer a lot of economic damage not only from their own lockdowns but also from the demand collapse in Europe and the US. Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui analyzed where the investment opportunities lie, and Tom Miller offered the prognosis for India.