Videos

Interviews

Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

8 Nov 2019
New European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to do more on the fiscal front to support eurozone growth. Only Germany has wiggle room within the EU fiscal straitjacket to launch a significant stimulus program. However, political resistance in Berlin to opening the spending taps remains formidable, and may be insurmountable.
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Video: China's Private Financing Woes

Video: China's Private Financing Woes

31 Oct 2019
Chinese credit growth picked up in September, which is good news at the margin for private sector liquidity. However, a continued crackdown on shadow finance and private firms’ difficultly rolling over bond obligations will retard capital spending and lead to more bond defaults into next year.
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Video: Playing The Un-inversion

Video: Playing The Un-inversion

25 Oct 2019
Having inverted over the summer, the US yield curve has steepened sharply. In the past such a move has often presaged recession—but not always. Twice since the 1960s an inversion and steepening was not followed by recession. Then, as now, the return on invested corporate capital was higher than the cost of that capital.
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Video: The End Of The Trend?

Video: The End Of The Trend?

18 Oct 2019
For the past few years, US treasuries, the US dollar and the oil price have all broadly traded in a range. In fact, the only bankable trend for investors has been the outperformance of US equities, without which global stock indexes would still be trading at 2006 levels. However, there are signs that the investment environment is changing.
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Video: India's Banking Blues

Video: India's Banking Blues

10 Oct 2019
A tweet by the Reserve Bank of India caused a bit of a stir last week, saying that the “…Indian banking system is safe and stable and there is no need to panic…”. It was after a small regional bank had been effectively put into receivership. While this doesn't pose a systemic risk, it's another consequence of Indian banks’ decade-old bad loan problem.
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Video: Where The Fed Stands

Video: Where The Fed Stands

4 Oct 2019
Investors are nervous about weak US data and a liquidity squeeze in the US repo markets. They are now looking to the Federal Reserve for reassurance. In this video, Will tells us what policy changes to expect from the Fed at the end of this month and why.
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Video: Where Next Hong Kong?

Video: Where Next Hong Kong?

26 Sep 2019
Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam today begins a process of civic engagement aimed at bridging the divide between an unpopular government and a diffuse movement that has engaged in 17 weeks of violent protest. Simon discusses whether economic goodies can buy off dissent and assesses the chances of a compromise political settlement.
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Video: What Next In The Tech War

Video: What Next In The Tech War

20 Sep 2019
Washington views China as a strategic competitor, and the White House has promised a “whole of government” effort to constrain China’s development of key advanced technologies. Dan examines the three ways in which the US is making life difficult for Chinese tech companies, and explores other weapons the US could deploy should the tech war escalate.
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Video: Washington, Iran And The Price Of Oil

Video: Washington, Iran And The Price Of Oil

13 Sep 2019
This week’s sacking of John Bolton as White House national security advisor triggered a fall in the price of oil as traders concluded the notorious war hawk’s departure paved the way for a relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That may be unlikely; US officials insist their policy of “maximum” pressure on Iran remains in force.
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Video: Italian Politics Favors Bonds

Video: Italian Politics Favors Bonds

6 Sep 2019
Yesterday Italy’s new government took office, the 66th since 1946. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have reached record lows. Nick attributes this to two factors. First the global bond rally. Second, the shifting winds of Italian politics away from the Euroskeptics to the Europhiles, which bodes well for Italian-European budget negotiations.
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Events

 
London Seminar — March 2018

London Seminar — March 2018

23 Mar 2018
In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.
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New York Seminar — November 2017

New York Seminar — November 2017

22 Nov 2017
At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.
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London Seminar — October 2017

London Seminar — October 2017

30 Oct 2017
Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.
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New York Seminar — May 2017

New York Seminar — May 2017

31 May 2017
Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.
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London Seminar — March 2017

London Seminar — March 2017

5 Apr 2017
In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.
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Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

28 Mar 2017
In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.
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Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

22 Feb 2017
Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.
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Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

18 Nov 2016
Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.
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London Seminar — October 2016

London Seminar — October 2016

19 Oct 2016
Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.
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Singapore Seminar—September 2016

Singapore Seminar—September 2016

26 Sep 2016
Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have turned a corner.
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