Videos

Interviews

Video: Time For A Fiscal Union?

Video: Time For A Fiscal Union?

17 Mar 2020
Nick Andrews
The coronavirus pandemic, with its calls for a coordinated European Union-wide fiscal stimulus to counter the inevitable economic ill-effects, would appear to be the ideal opportunity to press forward with the next big step towards European integration by forging a eurozone fiscal union. But things are not so simple.
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Video: Regime Change In The Oil Market

Video: Regime Change In The Oil Market

12 Mar 2020
Tom Holland
The breakup of the Opec+ oil cartel and the ensuing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia triggered a -30% fall in the price of oil and spooked financial markets. Moscow has upended the monopolistic pricing regime that has supported the price of oil over the last three years. Tom Holland examines the consequences of the oil market’s regime change.
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Video: What Can The ECB Do?

Video: What Can The ECB Do?

5 Mar 2020
Nick Andrews
This week the US federal Reserve cut interest rates to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the European Central Bank promised to follow suit with “appropriate” measures of its own. But eurozone policy rates are already negative, which severely limits the scope for further cuts.
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Video: Still The Safest Port In A Macro Storm

Video: Still The Safest Port In A Macro Storm

27 Feb 2020
Tan Kai Xian
It took a while, but fear of contagion is gripping Wall Street. In the last week, the S&P 500 has fallen -8%, while 10-year US treasury bills have hit a new all-time low. Yet the risk-off move in US asset markets triggered by worries the coronavirus epidemic is turning into a global pandemic is at odds with underlying US fundamentals.
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Video: Will The Economic Contagion Hit Europe?

Video: Will The Economic Contagion Hit Europe?

19 Feb 2020
Nick Andrews
Europe’s financial markets are sending mixed signals. On one hand, fears about the eurozone's exposure to China’s coronavirus-hit economy have pushed the euro to a 21-month low against the US dollar. On the other, euro-denominated stocks are hitting record highs. In this interview Nick examines the mixed message.
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Video: Hong Kong's Viral Woes

Video: Hong Kong's Viral Woes

14 Feb 2020
Vincent Tsui
For Hong Kong’s economy, already in recession after eight months of anti-government street protests, the Chinese coronavirus outbreak comes as a fresh blow falling on the existing bruise. Inevitably, the effect will be painful. Yet as Vincent explains, the Hong Kong economy has considerable resilience.
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Video: When Oil Hits The Floor

Video: When Oil Hits The Floor

6 Feb 2020
Tom Holland
No financial market has been hit more heavily by the Wuhan coronavirus than oil, with the price of crude falling by more than -20% from its early-January high on fears the outbreak will crush China’s demand for fuels. In this short video, Tom examines the global implications of the oil price slide, and asks “where next?” for the price of the world’s key commodity.
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Video: On Target In China?

Video: On Target In China?

24 Jan 2020
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.
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Video: US Autos Ride Again

Video: US Autos Ride Again

17 Jan 2020
Tan Kai Xian
A range of cyclical and structural factors have conspired to hit US auto sales in recent years. But with the US labor market remaining in rude health and US monetary policy being loosened, that may be about to change. The impact could be positive for US growth and for risk assets, argues KX in this interview.
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Video: Taiwan Chooses, Hong Kong Reacts

Video: Taiwan Chooses, Hong Kong Reacts

10 Jan 2020
Vincent Tsui
Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday in a presidential election where pro-independence incumbent Tsai Ing-wen looks like a shoo-in against the more China-friendly Kuomintang candidate. Tsai is unlikely to push China’s red lines and cross-strait relations should not be imperiled. Vincent also addresses the related issue of Beijing replacing its top representative in Hong Kong with a senior apparatchik.
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Events

Video: Is The Worst Behind Us?

Video: Is The Worst Behind Us?

26 Apr 2019
Chen Long
At our seminar in Shanghai, Chen Long presented the outlook for China’s economy and markets. Crucially, the credit cycle appears to have bottomed out, and credit growth should accelerate towards the end of the year. He expects the overall economy to follow suit. He also covered the outlook for capital markets, equities and the renminbi.
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Hong Kong Seminar — April 2019

Hong Kong Seminar — April 2019

9 Apr 2019
Louis-Vincent Gave, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand
Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.
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London Seminar — March 2019

London Seminar — March 2019

3 Apr 2019
Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky, Didier Darcet
Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.
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Hong Kong Seminar — November 2018

Hong Kong Seminar — November 2018

9 Nov 2018
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer, Arthur Kroeber
At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.
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London Seminar — October 2018

London Seminar — October 2018

9 Nov 2018
Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave
At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.
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Beijing Seminar — October 2018

Beijing Seminar — October 2018

30 Oct 2018
Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand, Chen Long
At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.
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Hong Kong Seminar — April 2018

Hong Kong Seminar — April 2018

13 Apr 2018
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Nick Andrews
At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Nick Andrews presented their latest views on the brewing trade war between the US and China, Chinese growth and the property market outlook, and how to capture European growth.
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London Seminar — March 2018

London Seminar — March 2018

23 Mar 2018
Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky
In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.
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New York Seminar — November 2017

New York Seminar — November 2017

22 Nov 2017
Anatole Kaletsky, Chen Long, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave
At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.
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London Seminar — October 2017

London Seminar — October 2017

30 Oct 2017
Anatole Kaletsky, Chen Long, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave
Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.
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