Videos

Interviews

 
Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges

Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges

12 Jul 2019
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.
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Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?

Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?

5 Jul 2019
Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.
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Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

28 Jun 2019
Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.
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Video: China's Three Vulnerabilities

Video: China's Three Vulnerabilities

21 Jun 2019
Even if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leave the G-20 meeting in Osaka next week with a trade deal in hand, the broader rivalry will continue. In this extensive video interview Louis identifies three ways in which China is vulnerable to US pressure and explains how this may impact investors.
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Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age

Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age

13 Jun 2019
The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish bond markets. Perhaps, he suggests, they are both right, but tell two different stories.
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Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem

Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem

5 Jun 2019
The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.
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Video: European Election Fallout

Video: European Election Fallout

28 May 2019
The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.
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Video: Iran And The Oil Price

Video: Iran And The Oil Price

24 May 2019
Angry rhetoric between the US and Iran reached blood-curdling intensity after the US announced in late April that it wouldn't grant waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil exports. While this caused a short term spike in the oil price, it has since fallen about -8% from its high. Are oil traders too complacent about the risks, or does the market have it right?
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Video: How Much Downside For The Renminbi?

Video: How Much Downside For The Renminbi?

17 May 2019
Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview, Chen Long discusses why that is, and how far China’s currency is likely to fall if things get worse.
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Video: Is The Worst Over For The Eurozone?

Video: Is The Worst Over For The Eurozone?

10 May 2019
Eurozone economic growth was modest in the first quarter of 2019, but it was still stronger than most economists had expected, with Germany avoiding a recession and Italy returning to growth. Meanwhile eurozone equity markets are up a respectable 13% over the year to date. Does this mean Europe is emerging from its economic soft patch?
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Events

 
London Seminar: The Aggresively Friendly Giant

London Seminar: The Aggresively Friendly Giant

27 Oct 2015
What sort of country is China, and what sort of power does it want to be? In this presentation to our seminar in London, Tom Miller explains how to understand the signals China’s leaders have been sending. China wants to pursue great-power status, a process that may alienate its neighbors and will require adjustments from the US.
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London Seminar Presentation Slides - October 2015

London Seminar Presentation Slides - October 2015

27 Oct 2015
These are the London Seminar presentation slides from October 2015
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London Seminar Audio And Slides

London Seminar Audio And Slides

27 Oct 2015
We held our main fall seminar on October 27 in London, where Anatole Kaletsky, Francois-Xavier Chauchat, Neil Newman, Tom Miller and Louis-Vincent Gave presented their views on the global economy. Anatole discussed the implications of recent developments in financial markets; Francois examined Europe’s resilience to global headwinds; Neil outlined three major investment themes in Japan; Tom explored China’s regional foreign policy ambitions, and Louis asked whether the world is facing a solvency crisis, or a liquidity squeeze. As ever, their presentations were followed by a lively question and answer session.
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Excerpt from Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

Excerpt from Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

21 Oct 2015
Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation
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Hong Kong Seminar: Housing Explains Everything

Hong Kong Seminar: Housing Explains Everything

21 Oct 2015
What is the best way to sort through the complexities of China’s enormous, continent-sized economy? In this presentation to our seminar in Hong Kong, Andrew argues that if you understand what’s going on in the housing market, then you know pretty much everything you need to know about the Chinese economy.
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Hong Kong Seminar, October 2015

Hong Kong Seminar, October 2015

21 Oct 2015
This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.
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