Videos

Interviews

Video: India's Economic Malaise

Video: India's Economic Malaise

12 Dec 2019
Udith Sikand
India’s economy has slowed down dramatically from around 8% growth a little over a year ago to 4.5% in the most recent quarter. Udith reckons the primary causes of this are domestic factors, as the financial system has continued to struggle while the policy response is too weak to be effective. The risk for the rupee is to the downside.
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Video: Upside-down Europe

Video: Upside-down Europe

6 Dec 2019
Cedric Gemehl
Ever since the European debt crisis Germany has outperformed the rest of Europe thanks to booming external demand, while the rest of the continent suffered from a restrictive policy mix. However, lately these conditions seem to be reversing, with Germany suffering from a collapse in its crucial auto industry. Cedric discusses this shift and outlines the implications for investors.
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Video: A Better Outlook For Asia?

Video: A Better Outlook For Asia?

22 Nov 2019
Vincent Tsui
Despite on-again, off-again talks, there are hopes that the US and China can reach an accommodation to avert a full-scale trade war that causes global production chains to be upended. Since the Federal Reserve is again in easing mode, leading to a weaker US dollar, Vincent explains what these developments mean for Asia.
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Video: A Turning Point For The Dollar

Video: A Turning Point For The Dollar

14 Nov 2019
Will Denyer
For the last five years, the world has lived with a strong US dollar. That may be about to change. Not only has the Fed turned dovish, its return to balance sheet expansion means it is now printing more money each month than its central bank peers, such as the ECB. This liquidity splurge, coupled with a diminution of dollar-supportive international risks may point to a period of US dollar weakness.
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Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

8 Nov 2019
Nick Andrews
New European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to do more on the fiscal front to support eurozone growth. Only Germany has wiggle room within the EU fiscal straitjacket to launch a significant stimulus program. However, political resistance in Berlin to opening the spending taps remains formidable, and may be insurmountable.
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Video: China's Private Financing Woes

Video: China's Private Financing Woes

31 Oct 2019
Thomas Gatley
Chinese credit growth picked up in September, which is good news at the margin for private sector liquidity. However, a continued crackdown on shadow finance and private firms’ difficultly rolling over bond obligations will retard capital spending and lead to more bond defaults into next year.
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Video: Playing The Un-inversion

Video: Playing The Un-inversion

25 Oct 2019
Tan Kai Xian
Having inverted over the summer, the US yield curve has steepened sharply. In the past such a move has often presaged recession—but not always. Twice since the 1960s an inversion and steepening was not followed by recession. Then, as now, the return on invested corporate capital was higher than the cost of that capital.
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Video: The End Of The Trend?

Video: The End Of The Trend?

18 Oct 2019
Louis-Vincent Gave
For the past few years, US treasuries, the US dollar and the oil price have all broadly traded in a range. In fact, the only bankable trend for investors has been the outperformance of US equities, without which global stock indexes would still be trading at 2006 levels. However, there are signs that the investment environment is changing.
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Video: India's Banking Blues

Video: India's Banking Blues

10 Oct 2019
Udith Sikand
A tweet by the Reserve Bank of India caused a bit of a stir last week, saying that the “…Indian banking system is safe and stable and there is no need to panic…”. It was after a small regional bank had been effectively put into receivership. While this doesn't pose a systemic risk, it's another consequence of Indian banks’ decade-old bad loan problem.
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Video: Where The Fed Stands

Video: Where The Fed Stands

4 Oct 2019
Will Denyer
Investors are nervous about weak US data and a liquidity squeeze in the US repo markets. They are now looking to the Federal Reserve for reassurance. In this video, Will tells us what policy changes to expect from the Fed at the end of this month and why.
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Events

 
New York Seminar — May 2017

New York Seminar — May 2017

31 May 2017
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber
Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.
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London Seminar — March 2017

London Seminar — March 2017

5 Apr 2017
Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky
In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.
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Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

28 Mar 2017
Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand, Tom Holland
In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.
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Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

22 Feb 2017
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer
Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.
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Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

18 Nov 2016
Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.
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London Seminar — October 2016

London Seminar — October 2016

19 Oct 2016
Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.
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Singapore Seminar—September 2016

Singapore Seminar—September 2016

26 Sep 2016
Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have turned a corner.
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New York Seminar—May 2016

New York Seminar—May 2016

24 May 2016
We are pleased to present audio from our seminar in New York earlier this week with Charles Gave, Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber
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Hong Kong Seminar—April 2016

Hong Kong Seminar—April 2016

13 Apr 2016
We are pleased to present recordings and slides from our Hong Kong seminar with Louis-Vincent Gave, Will Denyer and Andrew Batson. Louis examines an important recent development: the US dollar has stopped rising. Will diagnoses the health of the US economy in one chart. And Andrew discusses three scenarios for China: doom, boom and muddle-through.
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London Seminar—April 2016

London Seminar—April 2016

11 Apr 2016
London Seminar—April 2016
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