Videos

Many Asian countries face a worsening Covid outbreak, even as the region’s mostly commodity-importing economies face sharply rising prices for energy and raw materials. Asia did go into this crisis with significant policy headroom, so it retains room for action but as Udith and Vincent discuss in this video interview that is now narrowing.

Hailed as a breakthrough when it was struck back in December, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement On Investment is in trouble, with little chance the deal will be ratified in the European Parliament amid a deep deterioration in bilateral relations. Nick examines what the political frost means for the earnings of European companies operating in China.

If India's latest Covid wave peaks in the next few weeks, economic catastrophe can be avoided. However, India does not have much policy space in which to operate, so the counter scenario of new and more virile mutations driving a worsening outbreak does mean that hitherto stoic local investors could yet throw in the towel on Indian risk assets.

With a shoot-the-lights-out number universally expected when the US reports first quarter GDP data this week, Tan Kai Xian looks at the drivers propelling growth to determine whether US performance is sustainable, or just a flash in the pan. As a number of risks continue to loom large on the radar screen, in this video interview he assesses the implications of US growth for investors in risk assets.

With Joe Biden in the White House, international proposals for a global minimum corporate tax rate are back on the table. In this video interview, Yanmei Xie and Udith Sikand weigh the probability of agreement on a global tax rate, assess the degree of resistance, and look at who will really end up bearing the burden of higher effective corporate tax rates.

English consumers have this week embraced the end of lockdown and the reopening of non-essential services. Across Britain, a successful vaccination drive has raised hopes that drastically reduced Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations can be sustained as further restrictions are eased. In this video interview, Nick outlines what that is likely to mean for UK assets.

For a president with a scant majority of one in the US Senate, Joe Biden has an extremely ambitious legislative agenda, starting with a US$2trn infrastructure spending and tax bill. Yanmei examines the procedural shortcuts and political roadblocks that may either smooth or obstruct Biden’s proposed legislation to assess how much of the program is actually likely to make it into US law.

What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.

Concluding a long-awaited policy review, last week the Bank of Japan signaled that after almost a decade of pursuing titanic quantitative easing targets, it will be looking to make fewer asset purchases from now on. In this short video interview, Udith weighs the implications for Japan’s economy, its bond market, the yen, and Japanese equities.

The Hong Kong stock market started 2021 as one of the world’s best performing, gaining 14% in the first six weeks of the year. In the weeks since, however, Hong Kong-listed equities have given back half those gains as sentiment has soured. In this short video interview, Vincent weighs the opposing forces at work in the local market to assess how they are likely to play out in the future.

Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Didier Darcet and Cedric Gemehl delved into the results of the US election, and discussed the latest impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and markets. Additionally, they presented Gavekal’s latest research on portfolio construction.

With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.

The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.

China’s financial technology industry has been chaotic for two decades, with Ant Group launching pioneering new products while regulators and competitors play catch-up. With Ant Group ready for its IPO, the push-and-pull between the firm and regulators is grabbing institutional investors’ attention. Matthew Forney and Laila Khawaja of Gavekal Fathom China addressed this tension and also the broader impact of regulation on the country's fintech industry.

Emerging markets have had very different pandemic experiences and the effects are showing up in economic data and market performance. Northeast Asian economies offer strong growth opportunities while southeast Asia is muddling through in a way that favors bond investors. The good news in Asia is that struggling economies such as India and Indonesia are pursuing reform initiatives. The picture is less rosy in Latin America, while Turkey offers the potential for a macro shock to emerge.

The advance of the private sector and the retreat of the state sector has been central to China’s long transformation from an isolated socialist nation to a globally connected economy. Yet the notions of China’s private sector being either in the ascendency, or facing a squeeze in the statist Xi Jinping era are not born out by the facts. Andrew Batson discussed the findings in his recent major piece of research on this topic.

Yanmei Xie discussed the US team’s assessment of risks surrounding the US election, Anatole Kaletsky explained the reasons for his return to bullishness and Louis Gave talked about global asset allocation and how to find “anti-fragile” assets.

Yesterday Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews and Anatole Kaletsky joined Tom Holland to discuss what's going on in Europe. Topics ranged from how the economy is fairing in the second wave of the outbreak, what that means for asset prices, and also where Brexit fits into all this.

In yesterday’s webinar, Andrew Batson presented an overview of where the Chinese economy is going and how the relationship with the US is evolving, and Dan Wang addressed recent US actions in the technological rivalry between the two countries, particularly the latest executive orders on WeChat and TikTok.

India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy, exacerbating a slowdown that was already underway. In addition, India is engaged in a high-stakes standff with China over its Himalayan border, which may force an economic decoupling of the two countries.