Videos

Tom recently returned from a research trip to Taiwan and heard a quite different view among politicians and security experts about the risk of an invasion from mainland China. Here he discusses whether the Taiwanese are being complacent, or simply properly realistic.

US risk assets sold off heavily on Wednesday as investors processed strengthening US economic data that points to more inflation and a less easy Federal Reserve. Tan Kai Xian explains why, in spite of recent strong data releases, the US economy may not be out of the woods, and may flatter to deceive.

After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.

India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.

Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.

With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.

Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.

December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.

In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.

Another fight over the American debt ceiling is brewing in Washington, D.C. It is hard to think that the US government debt-ceiling standoff will not be settled but in the meantime, this could materially impact US liquidity conditions over the coming six months.

Markets have been roiled by rising US inflation that seems to be returning sooner than expected, and similar inflationary dynamics are starting to be seen in Europe. Our team of analysts addressed the inflation outlook in the US, Europe and emerging markets, and offered views on what it means for asset prices in these markets.

It is increasingly clear that shortages of semiconductors are both more widespread and intractable than first thought. In the near term, the fear is of cascading disruption along the Asian electronics value chain. In the medium term, however, it is possible that massive supply responses create a glut of chips that causes prices to eventually crater.

Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

As the US and Europe begin to emerge from the pandemic, Louis assesses the key relationships in global markets, Cedric asks whether Europe will have a summer this year and what the economic effects will be and Didier presents the “Yellow Jacket” multiplier, as he introduces a new asset allocation tool.

President Joe Biden has said that the US will make sweeping cuts to carbon dioxide emissions and impose tax hikes on the wealthy. For now, the US economy is recovering, but can this continue if risk takers pull in their horns as they will get less of the rewards?

Risk is alive and well in China even amid a record economic recovery. Antitrust authorities are turning their attention to the rest of China's internet platforms, financial regulators are taking a tougher line and Chinese equity markets are looking a bit wobbly. In yesterday's webinar, our panel of China analysts discussed the latest regulatory developments and their implications for markets.

Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

As the European Union’s vaccination program stumbles from one misstep to another, investors are being forced to put back their expectations for European economic recovery, while a procurement scandal in Germany raises the probability that the pandemic will have a long-term effect on the EU’s political landscape. Anatole, Cedric and Nick examined the near-term market impact and long-term economic policy implications.

Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In yesterday's webinar Will and KX will assessed the US macro environment and examined whether the rotations in favor of value stocks and Covid-losers have further to run.