Videos

Interviews

Video: On Target In China?

Video: On Target In China?

24 Jan 2020
In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.
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Video: US Autos Ride Again

Video: US Autos Ride Again

17 Jan 2020
A range of cyclical and structural factors have conspired to hit US auto sales in recent years. But with the US labor market remaining in rude health and US monetary policy being loosened, that may be about to change. The impact could be positive for US growth and for risk assets, argues KX in this interview.
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Video: Taiwan Chooses, Hong Kong Reacts

Video: Taiwan Chooses, Hong Kong Reacts

10 Jan 2020
Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday in a presidential election where pro-independence incumbent Tsai Ing-wen looks like a shoo-in against the more China-friendly Kuomintang candidate. Tsai is unlikely to push China’s red lines and cross-strait relations should not be imperiled. Vincent also addresses the related issue of Beijing replacing its top representative in Hong Kong with a senior apparatchik.
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Video: India's Economic Malaise

Video: India's Economic Malaise

12 Dec 2019
India’s economy has slowed down dramatically from around 8% growth a little over a year ago to 4.5% in the most recent quarter. Udith reckons the primary causes of this are domestic factors, as the financial system has continued to struggle while the policy response is too weak to be effective. The risk for the rupee is to the downside.
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Video: Upside-down Europe

Video: Upside-down Europe

6 Dec 2019
Ever since the European debt crisis Germany has outperformed the rest of Europe thanks to booming external demand, while the rest of the continent suffered from a restrictive policy mix. However, lately these conditions seem to be reversing, with Germany suffering from a collapse in its crucial auto industry. Cedric discusses this shift and outlines the implications for investors.
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Video: A Better Outlook For Asia?

Video: A Better Outlook For Asia?

22 Nov 2019
Despite on-again, off-again talks, there are hopes that the US and China can reach an accommodation to avert a full-scale trade war that causes global production chains to be upended. Since the Federal Reserve is again in easing mode, leading to a weaker US dollar, Vincent explains what these developments mean for Asia.
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Video: A Turning Point For The Dollar

Video: A Turning Point For The Dollar

14 Nov 2019
For the last five years, the world has lived with a strong US dollar. That may be about to change. Not only has the Fed turned dovish, its return to balance sheet expansion means it is now printing more money each month than its central bank peers, such as the ECB. This liquidity splurge, coupled with a diminution of dollar-supportive international risks may point to a period of US dollar weakness.
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Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

8 Nov 2019
New European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to do more on the fiscal front to support eurozone growth. Only Germany has wiggle room within the EU fiscal straitjacket to launch a significant stimulus program. However, political resistance in Berlin to opening the spending taps remains formidable, and may be insurmountable.
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Video: China's Private Financing Woes

Video: China's Private Financing Woes

31 Oct 2019
Chinese credit growth picked up in September, which is good news at the margin for private sector liquidity. However, a continued crackdown on shadow finance and private firms’ difficultly rolling over bond obligations will retard capital spending and lead to more bond defaults into next year.
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Video: Playing The Un-inversion

Video: Playing The Un-inversion

25 Oct 2019
Having inverted over the summer, the US yield curve has steepened sharply. In the past such a move has often presaged recession—but not always. Twice since the 1960s an inversion and steepening was not followed by recession. Then, as now, the return on invested corporate capital was higher than the cost of that capital.
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Events

 
Webinar: The Future Of Hong Kong

Webinar: The Future Of Hong Kong

27 May 2020
Louis Gave, Simon Pritchard and Vincent Tsui joined Arthur Kroeber to talk about the national security law which China's National People's Congress announced it will implement in Hong Kong, and what this could mean for Hong Kong's future as a global financial center.
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Webinar: US Outlook (May 2020)

Webinar: US Outlook (May 2020)

21 May 2020
In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Yanmei Xie joined Simon to discuss the outlook for the US and answer viewer questions as the country tries to return to normal after Covid-19 lockdowns.
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Webinar: Europe Update (May 2020)

Webinar: Europe Update (May 2020)

20 May 2020
In yesterday's webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to assess policy measures to deal with Covid-19 in Europe and discuss the significance of a €500bn coronavirus Recovery Fund.
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Webinar: China And The US Race Toward The Precipice

Webinar: China And The US Race Toward The Precipice

15 May 2020
The rivalry between the US and China has taken a turn for the worse during the Covid-19 pandemic. In yesterday’s webinar, Tom Miller talked about how China has attempted to use the pandemic in its global influence strategy. Dan Wang updated viewers on the technology rivalry. And Arthur Kroeber outlined how the US-China relationship got to this point.
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Webinar: The Kitsune Market — Tail Risks In An Unnatural Time

Webinar: The Kitsune Market — Tail Risks In An Unnatural Time

13 May 2020
Most of the world’s big economies have been shut down in response to a pandemic disease—a truly unprecedented event. This led to extreme market moves and also generated an unusually large array of tail risks. Louis likens these to the nine tails of the magical kitsune or fox of Japanese mythology. In yesterday's webinar he elaborated on this idea.
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Webinar: China And Emerging Markets Update

Webinar: China And Emerging Markets Update

7 May 2020
China has started to reopen its economy, but it is proving hard to get Chinese consumers and small businesses up and running again. He Wei and Andrew Batson provided the latest updates on policy efforts to revive China’s economy. Udith Sikand reviewed the broader outlook for emerging markets.
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Webinar: What Does Covid-19 Mean For Emerging Markets?

Webinar: What Does Covid-19 Mean For Emerging Markets?

5 May 2020
So far the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have been a less significant health event in most emerging markets. Yet EMs are bound to suffer a lot of economic damage not only from their own lockdowns but also from the demand collapse in Europe and the US. Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui analyzed where the investment opportunities lie, and Tom Miller offered the prognosis for India.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2020

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2020

1 May 2020
Markets are showing both signs of dislocation (in negative oil prices) and impressive stability (the S&P 500 is only down -4.1% over the previous 12 months). Is this stability a Federal Reserve-induced illusion? Are there more shocks to come? If so, where? In our monthly investment roundtable, Louis, Charles and Anatole discussed market scenarios for the months ahead.
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Webinar: Modeling Projections For The Covid-19 Epidemic

Webinar: Modeling Projections For The Covid-19 Epidemic

30 Apr 2020
Gavekal Intelligence Software is collaborating with ETH Zurich and Shenzhen's Southern University of Science & Technology to track the spread of Covid-19. GIS principal Didier Darcet presented the findings in a conversation with Louis Gave
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Webinar: Investing In A Time Of Covid-19 (French)

Webinar: Investing In A Time Of Covid-19 (French)

24 Apr 2020
Charles Gave Louis Gave, and Cedric Gemehl, along with principal of Gavekal Intelligence Software Didier Darcet, participated in a French-speaking webinar. They discussed the global investment outlook in light of the latest Covid-19 tracking data, and how to invest in a world dominated by central banks.
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