Videos

After the resignation of two regional Federal Reserve branch presidents over potential conflicts of interest, the knives are out in Washington for Jay Powell. In this video interview, Will assesses what personnel changes at the Fed may mean for the trajectory of US monetary policy and for the Fed’s role as US banking supervisor.

As if a tight labor market, rising inflation and widespread fuel shortages weren’t enough to contend with, the United Kingdom is also seeing a sharp deterioration in its relations with the European Union, and France especially. Nick examines what worsening cross-Channel relations could mean for the economies of the UK and EU.

A material difference has opened up in both the actions and signaling of global central banks, as they exit from pandemic-era monetary policy settings. On the hawkish side is the likes of the Federal Reserve and on the dovish side the European Central Bank and a raft of Asian policymakers. The question is who could be on the verge of making a policy mistake.

Asian economies are often lumped into the collective bucket of following “zero-Covid” elimination strategies. That has certainly been the case in most of the region’s big economies. However, there is increasingly an impetus by the better-vaccinated countries to fully reopen. Vincent surveys the landscape and draws some conclusions regarding preferred currency plays.

As investors have flipped between euphoria and dejection over the future of crypto-currencies and related digital assets, prices have had a crazy ride. In this video Will outlines a framework for thinking about valuations. Even if digital art sold as NFTs sticks around, the basic economics of their use case means they probably won't be great stores of value.

Ahead of Germany’s election in a couple of weeks, the center-left Social Democratic Party has recently climbed up the polls to eclipse the previously dominant Christian Democratic Union. If the polling is right, the SPD is likely to form a coalition government with Germany’s smaller parties. Nick breaks out the tea leaves to see what a political shift is likely to mean.

In the same week that the US military completed its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden outlined a more contained doctrine for US foreign policy. In this video interview, Yanmei argues against a declinist view of the Kabul dash for the exit, contending that the longer-term impact may be a much-needed reset of the American imperial project.

India has been a tough place for multinationals to make big capital investments. Just this week the country’s highest court cleared the way for anti-trust action against Amazon and Walmart’s online retail platforms. However, a counter-trend move has been the government backing away from a retrospective tax that has been deployed against foreign investors.

Since the depths of the pandemic, the US labor market has recovered remarkably quickly. A key question for investors is how long strong job creation can be sustained before upward wage pressure returns. Ahead of Fridays’ payrolls report, Kai Xian outlines the key drivers of the US labor market.

Apple's Tim Cook warned investors that it would face microchip shortages in the second half of the year. Yet last week, Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor said that it saw an abatement of the great chip shortage. In this video interview, Vincent seeks to reconcile these two statements, and explain what it all means for Asian exports.

Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

As the European Union’s vaccination program stumbles from one misstep to another, investors are being forced to put back their expectations for European economic recovery, while a procurement scandal in Germany raises the probability that the pandemic will have a long-term effect on the EU’s political landscape. Anatole, Cedric and Nick examined the near-term market impact and long-term economic policy implications.

Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In yesterday's webinar Will and KX will assessed the US macro environment and examined whether the rotations in favor of value stocks and Covid-losers have further to run.

The annual session of China's National People's Congress has wrapped up with the approval of a new five-year plan, a sweeping document that promises not only technological self-sufficiency but a different style of economic management in coming years. In this webinar, our China experts unpacked what these grand promises really mean, and also discussed the substantial recent correction in Chinese equities and where markets are headed from here.

With the release of pent-up demand and more fiscal spending, India's economy is rebounding sharply. Its growth potential is also being raised by a new push towards privatization and an industrial policy that supports manufacturers. The question is whether India can overcome institutional lethargy and make these policies work. Tom and Udith addressed such issues and the latest market developments impacting sub-continent assets.

As Covid-19 vaccinations are cranked up and Congress gets ready to dole out stimulus measures, US growth expectations have risen along with inflation concerns. In response, bonds have sold off and equity markets have shuddered. In our monthly global investment roundtable, Gavekal partners discussed this confluence of events and addressed what it means for risk assets.

Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked whether Italy's Damascene conversion is for real.

Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have their day in the sun.

Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.