Videos

Hong Kong is finally moving towards reopening to the wider world, if not yet to mainland China. Yet Hong Kong’s economy and assets are getting squeezed by higher US interest rates imported via the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this interview, Vincent examines the different forces at work driving Hong Kong’s macro and markets.

On Thursday the Ethereum blockchain underwent the “merge”, moving from a proof-of-work based system to proof-of-stake. This cut its energy usage by -99.9% and slashed the issuance of new ether. Will explains what that means for ether’s in-universe money supply, and how it might make the cryptocurrency more attractive to investors, or spenders.

In the last six weeks the Japanese yen has fallen over -8% against the US currency to more than ¥140 to the US dollar. In this video interview, Louis examines the causes of the yen’s fall and explores the potential consequences for investors.

The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.

With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.

The sharp rise this year in European energy prices has been widely attributed to Russia, which has declined to increase near-term supplies of natural gas to Europe in line with the region’s demand growth. Nick examines the incentives guiding Moscow’s decisions and explores the potential impact of Russia’s choices on Western Europe’s inflation and growth outlook.

The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.

Markets have been roiled by rising US inflation that seems to be returning sooner than expected, and similar inflationary dynamics are starting to be seen in Europe. Our team of analysts addressed the inflation outlook in the US, Europe and emerging markets, and offered views on what it means for asset prices in these markets.

It is increasingly clear that shortages of semiconductors are both more widespread and intractable than first thought. In the near term, the fear is of cascading disruption along the Asian electronics value chain. In the medium term, however, it is possible that massive supply responses create a glut of chips that causes prices to eventually crater.

Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

As the US and Europe begin to emerge from the pandemic, Louis assesses the key relationships in global markets, Cedric asks whether Europe will have a summer this year and what the economic effects will be and Didier presents the “Yellow Jacket” multiplier, as he introduces a new asset allocation tool.

President Joe Biden has said that the US will make sweeping cuts to carbon dioxide emissions and impose tax hikes on the wealthy. For now, the US economy is recovering, but can this continue if risk takers pull in their horns as they will get less of the rewards?

Risk is alive and well in China even amid a record economic recovery. Antitrust authorities are turning their attention to the rest of China's internet platforms, financial regulators are taking a tougher line and Chinese equity markets are looking a bit wobbly. In yesterday's webinar, our panel of China analysts discussed the latest regulatory developments and their implications for markets.

Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

As the European Union’s vaccination program stumbles from one misstep to another, investors are being forced to put back their expectations for European economic recovery, while a procurement scandal in Germany raises the probability that the pandemic will have a long-term effect on the EU’s political landscape. Anatole, Cedric and Nick examined the near-term market impact and long-term economic policy implications.

Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In yesterday's webinar Will and KX will assessed the US macro environment and examined whether the rotations in favor of value stocks and Covid-losers have further to run.