Videos

Fresh back from a research trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Tom Miller shares his impressions of Saudi’s efforts to transform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on petroleum, talks about the effect of the Gaza conflict on regional relations, and assesses the state of the Gulf countries’ relationships with the world’s two economic superpowers: the United States and China.

On Wednesday, China replaced its stock market regulator as part of a series of choreographed interventions seemingly intended to bolster support for bombed-out equities and so avert a spiral of decline in the nation’s asset markets. In this video interview, Thomas argues that the combined effect of recent macro policy moves in addition to market support actions should allow a solid bounce in Chinese equities. What comes after that is far less clear.

In this video interview, Cedric Gemehl digs into the polling numbers for June's European Parliament election and explains how Europe’s institutions will likely adapt to a possible electoral shock amid a political economy of protest movements across the continent.

In trying to prop up US banks after the Silicon Valley Bank bust in March last year, the Federal Reserve introduced a liquidity facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program. Banks in November and December started to take advantage of a widening arbitrage opportunity from this facility.

Dismissed not long ago as a phantom of negative-real-rate delirium, bitcoin is up nearly 60% over the last three months, with the run-up propelled in part by prospects for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines the underpinnings of the rally, and asks whether there are lessons to be learned from the rollout of gold ETFs 20 years ago.

Following a year in which anyone hoping for a reopening rally in China was cruelly disappointed, Louis examines the reasons many international money managers believe China is now uninvestible, and asks whether these can change in 2024.

After the fighting in Gaza remained largely contained through much of the final quarter of 2023, the risk that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle Eastern region—with potentially grievous economic costs—has risen sharply in recent weeks.

After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.

The United States and China are courting middle powers across the globe in an effort to gain further economic and political influence. One such “geopolitical swing state” is Vietnam, where China's top leader, Xi Jinping, has just returned from his first trip in six years, following hot on the heels of US president Joe Biden’s visit in September.

For more than 30 years, there has been a fairly reliable inverse correlation between US treasury bonds and equities which has been the bedrock of most balanced portfolio strategies. Of late, however, that relationship has gone awry and the two asset classes have tended to move in lockstep—both up and down. In this video interview, Louis tries to explain what is going on and what happens next.

Amid a broad-based tightening of global financial conditions, there are fears that emerging markets as an asset class could get caught in the downdraft. Yet notably, EM assets have not underperformed those in developed markets; in the case of currencies, they have outperformed.

As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.

Between rampant inflation, rising interest rates and high energy prices, the risk of recession is growing on both sides of the Atlantic. China may be stimulating its economy, but could get stuck in a liquidity trap. In this webinar our team assessed growth prospects across the world's major regions.

In this webinar, our analysts discussed Europe’s ominous-looking leading indicators and its hawkish central bank. Europe’s near-term economic future is in play, and this will have consequences for exchange rates, government funding costs and risk assets.

In this webinar, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave discussed the drivers behind today’s challenging market conditions and offered a roadmap for what may come next.

Concerns about global growth are escalating amid rising inflation and tightening central banks. In this webinar, our global team examined the risks, region by region.

As Covid case numbers in China steadily fall and Shanghai promises to reopen, the question that emerges is whether the worst is over. In this week's webinar, our China team explained the shifting policy environment and discussed the risks to the economy and markets.

In this webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian examined market moves so far this year to figure out whether US equities now have fallen enough to warrant going overwheight, and whether US treasury yields have risen enough to justify extending duration and/or placing recession bets.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.