Videos

In the last six weeks the Japanese yen has fallen over -8% against the US currency to more than ¥140 to the US dollar. In this video interview, Louis examines the causes of the yen’s fall and explores the potential consequences for investors.

The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.

With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.

The sharp rise this year in European energy prices has been widely attributed to Russia, which has declined to increase near-term supplies of natural gas to Europe in line with the region’s demand growth. Nick examines the incentives guiding Moscow’s decisions and explores the potential impact of Russia’s choices on Western Europe’s inflation and growth outlook.

The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.

In the US expectations are growing that labor shortages will drive accelerating pay rises, exacerbating inflationary pressures. In the eurozone, as Nick explains, the situation is different. Although anecdotes abound about employers struggling to staff up, these are a temporary wrinkle caused by rapid reopening in narrow sectors.

India posted a blazing 20% year-on-year growth figure in the calendar year’s second quarter. The country seems to have ducked a third Covid wave and equity investors remain ebullient. In this video interview, Udith explores a number of gathering problems for the Indian economy but concedes that the good times could easily keep on rolling.

The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.

As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?

At November's Global Investment Roundtable, Gavekal’s senior team convened to discuss the global macro environment as energy prices continue to rise and the US Federal Reserve gets closer to winding down its monetary accommodation.

Europe is in the grips of an energy crisis that is disrupting multiple industries and acting as an effective tax on consumption. In addition to broader supply chain bottlenecks, the worry is that these factors choke off Europe's nascent economic recovery. In this webinar our team of analysts assess these dynamics.

The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances. Will and KX set out what these all these shifts—as well as rising inflation, tightening labor markets and deteriorating housing affordability—mean for US stock and bond markets.

China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. These have resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. In this webinar, Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely.

In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.

The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?

Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.