Videos

The US yield curve has not been this severely inverted since 1981, giving rise to fears that a recession in the world’s biggest economy may be nigh. Yield curve inversions do not always signal a recession, but every recession since the mid-1960s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Will explains why that is the case and what it means for asset allocators.

Tom recently returned from a research trip to Taiwan and heard a quite different view among politicians and security experts about the risk of an invasion from mainland China. Here he discusses whether the Taiwanese are being complacent, or simply properly realistic.

US risk assets sold off heavily on Wednesday as investors processed strengthening US economic data that points to more inflation and a less easy Federal Reserve. Tan Kai Xian explains why, in spite of recent strong data releases, the US economy may not be out of the woods, and may flatter to deceive.

After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.

India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.

Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.

With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.

Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.

December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.

In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.

Energy prices are likely to have a big impact on macroeconomics and market performance in the coming year. Our research team has assessed the effect of three different pricing scenarios on the US, Europe and emerging economies. In this webinar, they presented their findings.

China enters 2022 having made a very apparent shift in policy toward supporting economic stability, but it still has very obvious growth problems. The construction downturn is deepening, Covid restrictions are spreading and reliable growth engines could be fading. Is the government’s measured and moderate strategy up to the task?

Louis is convinced that the trend of higher energy prices, steeper yield curves and value stock outperformance is here to stay—at least until some major event comes along to change the story. Anatole, by contrast, continues to think that the inflation surge is about to be revealed as a scare and reckons that strong earnings growth will soon be driving a resurgence in growth stocks.

In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.

In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.

The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.

As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?