Videos

The business environment in China has changed markedly over the past few years. On a recent trip to Beijing and Shanghai, Tom met foreign executives who lament the changed environment yet still crave access to China’s huge market. He also ran into domestic firms that thrived in recent decades but are struggling to turn a profit in an economy being directed at self-sufficiency. Yet for those who are on the right side of change in China’s big cities, he says they can benefit from cheap living costs and a good quality of life.

Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates—on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade—examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.

In markets, this year has been dominated by artificial intelligence. Nearly a decade ago, the hyped-up tech de jour was autonomous vehicles. Now it appears as if years of testing and development are starting to bear fruit. Will recently took his first robo-taxi ride in San Francisco and in this interview he examines the state of the technology, the scale of the rollout and who stands to benefit, or lose, from mass market adoption.

Usually when developed market volatility spikes, the world’s emerging markets fall victim to collateral damage. Things have been less simple this time around. Although Latin American currencies, especially the Mexican peso, have been hit hard by the unwinding of the yen carry trade, East Asian currencies have risen strongly. Udith Sikand explores what lies behind the divergence.

On the eve of the Paris Olympics, France’s political class has taken a welcome break from trying to resolve the parliamentary dilemma thrown by a deeply divided electorate. In this video, Cedric discusses the state of France and whether its economy can expect to benefit from an Olympic bounce to chase away the summer blues.

A new spirit of mercantilism is abroad in the US, with Donald Trump’s Republican Party proposing a “baseline tariff” on all goods imports, as well as targeted higher tariffs on imports from China, should it capture the White House in November’s election. In this interview, Yanmei assesses what this means.

Two months ago, Kai Xian made a cautiously bullish call on the US housing market, as a downturn in activity had looked to be bottoming out. In the intervening period, however, conditions for US homebuilders continued to worsen. In this interview, he explains what happened and what he expects to happen next.

Over the past month, the frequency, intensity and severity of clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah has ramped up on the Israel-Lebanon border. That may already have been responsible for pushing the oil price higher. In this interview, Yanmei assesses the forces of escalation against the strength of the guardrails that have kept the conflict fairly contained so far.

The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.

The surprise election announcement by French president Emmanuel Macron last week was followed by market turmoil as investors priced in greater political uncertainty in France. Setting the politics aside for a moment, Cedric assesses the new environment for equities and bonds, and invokes the old Gavekal concept of “national victims” to chart the potential outcomes for listed companies exposed to the French market or who operate in heavily regulated sectors.

China continues to reel from a massive wave of Covid infections, but cases may have already peaked in most places. In this webinar our China team discussed the pace of reopening and its market implications. Ernan Cui provided the latest updates on the Covid situation, and Thomas Gatley assessed how far the reopening rally has to run.

Will the fall of the US dollar over the last quarter of 2022 continue in 2023? What does China’s reopening mean for asset markets? For commodities demand? And for global inflation? And what is the outlook for OECD bonds? In this webinar Louis tackles the big questions head-on, and expands on his key investment themes for the year ahead.

China’s reopening from Covid containment is already well under way, and looks likely to be fast and messy. In this webinar members of our China team assessed the outlook next year for monetary and fiscal policy, capital markets and the country’s ailing property sector.

Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.

With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.

India's stock market has been one of the best performing in Asia this year, and the country is also benefiting from contract tech manufacturers starting to redirect direct investment from China. The question for the Indian economy is whether domestic companies follow suit and help to initiate a new investment cycle.

Although Europe has a decent chance at escaping painful energy rationing this winter, higher energy prices have already hurt growth, while inflation has become entrenched across much of the economy. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weighed the forces driving European growth and inflation, and assessed the outlook for financial markets.

As the global economy shifts down a gear and the Federal Reserve continues to turn the screws on inflation, Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for investors in a run-in to the year-end which looks like it may not be pretty.

The US economy is approaching recession territory, while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten liquidity conditions. Add in political uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections and this is a testing moment to be managing a portfolio. In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian offered suggestions on where to seek shelter from the storm.

Where will Xi Jinping take China after the conclusion of the Party Congress? In this webinar, our China team assessed what we learned, and what we didn't, from the most important event in the Communist Party's political calendar. They decoded the signals on politics and policy, explored the implications of the new leadership team, and analyzed the next evolution of Covid strategy.