Videos

Mexicans go to the polls this Sunday to elect a new president after several years in which the Mexican economy has benefited from the realignment of global supply chains. Fresh back from a trip to Mexico’s China-invested factory lands, Tom Miller assesses how the new president will endeavor to attract fresh inward investment while navigating mounting criticism from Washington that Mexico is acting as a back door into the US for unfairly underpriced Chinese goods.

China’s policymakers announced several new property policies last week, including a call for local governments to buy back residential land from developers and purchase housing inventories for conversion into affordable homes. Christopher examines this latest attempt to bolster the ailing property sector and evaluates whether it might succeed where earlier efforts have failed.

Vladimir Putin visited Beijing this week a few weeks after senior US officials were in town to berate Chinese policymakers over their alleged supply of “dual-use” products to Russia. Chinese sales of machine tools, industrial widgets and microchips are reportedly key to Russia’s reinvigorated weapons production program but Xi Jinping is likely to preside over a relatively cautious approach to the trade.

Data centers are emerging as massive users of electricity that power-producers in many economies are struggling to serve. Data centers are also large-scale users of water, which is a scarce resource in many regions. In this video, Kai Xian discusses whether such constraints will impede the rollout of AI applications and thus hinder the hoped-for productivity improvement they promise to deliver.

A sharp strengthening of the yen late Wednesday suggested the Bank of Japan was again intervening in the foreign exchange market after it spent an estimated US$35bn to counter yen weakness on Monday. In this video interview, Udith Sikand examines the currency market dynamics to gauge the likely effectiveness of the Japanese authorities’ campaign to limit further yen weakness.

France’s government debt readings keep going from bad to worse, yet sovereign bond investors do not seem to be punishing policymakers for their spendthrift ways. In this video, Cedric explores different political scenarios that could upset the French apple cart.

As confrontations have flared between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, US president Joe Biden has declared an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ defense in a trilateral security pact along with Japan. Gavekal geopolitical risk analyst Yanmei Xie delves into the background of the tensions, and assesses the potential for future clashes drawing in US forces in the region.

Even as US employment growth has remained strong in recent months, wage growth has continued to ease. Kai Xian attributes this paradox in part to rapid immigration into the US, which is supporting the supply of new workers. This implies that immigration policy will have a significant influence on the US labor market, wage growth and inflation over the coming years.

Tom recently conducted a research trip to Vietnam and found that the key issue vexing foreign investors in the country is fallout from an escalating “anti-corruption” campaign, which has paralyzed economic policymaking. In this interview, he discusses whether the resulting power struggle within the ruling Communist Party could upend what has been one of the world’s best development stories over recent years.

As China’s government has doubled down on industrial development as its driver of growth, economies elsewhere have grown increasingly concerned about their ability to compete as Chinese producers move rapidly up the value chain. In this short video interview, Yanmei Xie assesses the risks posed by rising protectionism, and identifies potential winners and losers.

China’s reopening from Covid containment is already well under way, and looks likely to be fast and messy. In this webinar members of our China team assessed the outlook next year for monetary and fiscal policy, capital markets and the country’s ailing property sector.

Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.

With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.

India's stock market has been one of the best performing in Asia this year, and the country is also benefiting from contract tech manufacturers starting to redirect direct investment from China. The question for the Indian economy is whether domestic companies follow suit and help to initiate a new investment cycle.

Although Europe has a decent chance at escaping painful energy rationing this winter, higher energy prices have already hurt growth, while inflation has become entrenched across much of the economy. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weighed the forces driving European growth and inflation, and assessed the outlook for financial markets.

As the global economy shifts down a gear and the Federal Reserve continues to turn the screws on inflation, Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for investors in a run-in to the year-end which looks like it may not be pretty.

The US economy is approaching recession territory, while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten liquidity conditions. Add in political uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections and this is a testing moment to be managing a portfolio. In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian offered suggestions on where to seek shelter from the storm.

Where will Xi Jinping take China after the conclusion of the Party Congress? In this webinar, our China team assessed what we learned, and what we didn't, from the most important event in the Communist Party's political calendar. They decoded the signals on politics and policy, explored the implications of the new leadership team, and analyzed the next evolution of Covid strategy.

In our London seminar, Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for global markets, Cedric Gemehl updated his view on Europe, Tom Miller considered the effects of China's National Party Congress and Charles Gave considered the possibility that this time really could be different.

Over the last decade, Asian property markets have done especially well on a cocktail of cheap money and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Yet as policymakers in Asia struggle to catch up with the US Federal Reserve by raising interest rates, Asian property markets look exposed.