Videos

Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.

Headline inflation in the UK has started to moderate just as wages rise in a material way. That is giving rise to concerns about a wage-price spiral and is likely to constrain any monetary easing moves made by the Bank of England. In this video, Nick assesses what the dynamic means for the UK economy and for an already stressed gilt market.

Despite 525bp of interest rate hikes in less than 18 months, far from sliding into recession as many observers expected, the US economy continues to grow at a respectable if unspectacular rate and unemployment remains close to 50-year lows at just 3.5%. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian digs into what is different about this cycle of monetary tightening—and what remains the same.

US treasury yields have risen to the top of their trading range since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on Tuesday. It comes as the US Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of new debt to fund US government deficits. Kai Xian assesses the resulting change in the liquidity environment and what this means for investors.

The likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta have embraced generative artificial intelligence applications, but workers are fearful for their jobs and governments are threatening to regulate the industry. Will examines the possible macro impacts of the generative AI boom and compares it to previous examples of disruptive technological breakthroughs.

In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany’s relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin’s previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.

There are increasing signs that the Indian government’s focus on investment spending, is starting to “crowd-in” private investment and spur consumption. Moreover, inflation is cooling, paving the way for monetary policy to be eased. In this interview, Udith assesses India’s prospects and explains what this improving macro-outlook means for India’s already highly performing asset markets.

The lawless behavior seen on French streets last week was shocking, but not unprecedented. Cedric contends that in the short term, this episode is unlikely to materially impact the economy or financial markets in France. However, the evident fragmentation of French politics—and society—will make it more difficult for the government to handle the country’s worsening fiscal situation.

As the mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow, there was a deafening silence from Russia’s biggest neighbor. China has been a key economic support for Russia even as it attempts to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but during the tense stand-off, Chinese officials lent no public support to Putin’s regime. Yanmei unpacks the China-Russia relationship and assesses how things are likely to progress.

China’s property market started the year strong following the reopening from Covid containment, but weakened substantially after Q1. It now threatens to drag down the broader economic recovery. In this interview, Rosealea assesses the state of the market, how policymakers are likely to respond and what it means for the likely trajectory ahead.

Between rampant inflation, rising interest rates and high energy prices, the risk of recession is growing on both sides of the Atlantic. China may be stimulating its economy, but could get stuck in a liquidity trap. In this webinar our team assessed growth prospects across the world's major regions.

In this webinar, our analysts discussed Europe’s ominous-looking leading indicators and its hawkish central bank. Europe’s near-term economic future is in play, and this will have consequences for exchange rates, government funding costs and risk assets.

In this webinar, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave discussed the drivers behind today’s challenging market conditions and offered a roadmap for what may come next.

Concerns about global growth are escalating amid rising inflation and tightening central banks. In this webinar, our global team examined the risks, region by region.

As Covid case numbers in China steadily fall and Shanghai promises to reopen, the question that emerges is whether the worst is over. In this week's webinar, our China team explained the shifting policy environment and discussed the risks to the economy and markets.

In this webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian examined market moves so far this year to figure out whether US equities now have fallen enough to warrant going overwheight, and whether US treasury yields have risen enough to justify extending duration and/or placing recession bets.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.

Nick Andrews discusses cyclical dynamics in Europe and the central bank’s policy responses. Louis-Vincent Gave presents his take on French politics and the broader macroeconomic picture.

Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.