Videos

US treasury yields have risen to the top of their trading range since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on Tuesday. It comes as the US Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of new debt to fund US government deficits. Kai Xian assesses the resulting change in the liquidity environment and what this means for investors.

The likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta have embraced generative artificial intelligence applications, but workers are fearful for their jobs and governments are threatening to regulate the industry. Will examines the possible macro impacts of the generative AI boom and compares it to previous examples of disruptive technological breakthroughs.

In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany’s relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin’s previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.

There are increasing signs that the Indian government’s focus on investment spending, is starting to “crowd-in” private investment and spur consumption. Moreover, inflation is cooling, paving the way for monetary policy to be eased. In this interview, Udith assesses India’s prospects and explains what this improving macro-outlook means for India’s already highly performing asset markets.

The lawless behavior seen on French streets last week was shocking, but not unprecedented. Cedric contends that in the short term, this episode is unlikely to materially impact the economy or financial markets in France. However, the evident fragmentation of French politics—and society—will make it more difficult for the government to handle the country’s worsening fiscal situation.

As the mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow, there was a deafening silence from Russia’s biggest neighbor. China has been a key economic support for Russia even as it attempts to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but during the tense stand-off, Chinese officials lent no public support to Putin’s regime. Yanmei unpacks the China-Russia relationship and assesses how things are likely to progress.

China’s property market started the year strong following the reopening from Covid containment, but weakened substantially after Q1. It now threatens to drag down the broader economic recovery. In this interview, Rosealea assesses the state of the market, how policymakers are likely to respond and what it means for the likely trajectory ahead.

After a decade of what might be called benign neglect, the crypto industry has recently been on the receiving end of a US regulatory crackdown. In this video interview, Will explains that the sector in fact faces headwinds from three different corners of the US policymaking apparatus, and outlines what that might mean for curious investors.

On July 23, Spain goes to the polls in a hastily-called election, which on current polling could lead to protracted coalition talks and a government of new faces. If so, the result will complicate the outlook for Spain’s second-half rotating presidency of the EU, at a time when clear leadership will be needed to steer the reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules. Nick Andrews reviews the political landscape and sets out the challenges.

Louis recently spent time meeting companies and investors in China and found that animal spirits have indeed taken a big knock as a result of government policies. In this video interview, he discusses what this mood shift means for asset markets and offers a view on how investors should play a more circumspect China.

In this webinar, our analysts discussed Europe’s ominous-looking leading indicators and its hawkish central bank. Europe’s near-term economic future is in play, and this will have consequences for exchange rates, government funding costs and risk assets.

In this webinar, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave discussed the drivers behind today’s challenging market conditions and offered a roadmap for what may come next.

Concerns about global growth are escalating amid rising inflation and tightening central banks. In this webinar, our global team examined the risks, region by region.

As Covid case numbers in China steadily fall and Shanghai promises to reopen, the question that emerges is whether the worst is over. In this week's webinar, our China team explained the shifting policy environment and discussed the risks to the economy and markets.

In this webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian examined market moves so far this year to figure out whether US equities now have fallen enough to warrant going overwheight, and whether US treasury yields have risen enough to justify extending duration and/or placing recession bets.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.

Nick Andrews discusses cyclical dynamics in Europe and the central bank’s policy responses. Louis-Vincent Gave presents his take on French politics and the broader macroeconomic picture.

Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.

In this webinar, our team provide an update on the rapidly changing on-the-ground situation in China, and discuss how this latest Covid shock will affect the economic trajectory for 2022.