Videos

Brazil will go into a second-round presidential election run-off at the end of the month with two candidates offering two quite different models of governance and economic management. Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also likely to have very different relationships with China, which Tom argues could be material in assessing Brazil’s economic outlook.

After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.

Hong Kong is finally moving towards reopening to the wider world, if not yet to mainland China. Yet Hong Kong’s economy and assets are getting squeezed by higher US interest rates imported via the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this interview, Vincent examines the different forces at work driving Hong Kong’s macro and markets.

On Thursday the Ethereum blockchain underwent the “merge”, moving from a proof-of-work based system to proof-of-stake. This cut its energy usage by -99.9% and slashed the issuance of new ether. Will explains what that means for ether’s in-universe money supply, and how it might make the cryptocurrency more attractive to investors, or spenders.

In the last six weeks the Japanese yen has fallen over -8% against the US currency to more than ¥140 to the US dollar. In this video interview, Louis examines the causes of the yen’s fall and explores the potential consequences for investors.

The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.

With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.

Louis and Anatole were joined by Elbridge A. Colby to talk about the unfolding situation in Ukraine, assess the US’s potential responses, and answer viewer questions. Our guest is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.

Tom Holland warned that a further fall in the supply of Russian piped natural gas could lead to energy rationing for European industry. Vincent Tsui and Udith Sikand surveyed the emerging market landscape to determine the winners and losers from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve. Tom Miller reviewed Russia-China relations.

As European economies emerge from the pandemic, policymakers have signaled a sooner-than-expected normalization of monetary policy, which has spooked investors. In this webinar, our team evaluated if the ECB is serious about raising interest rates later this year and whether this looks like a 2011-style policy mistake in the making.

The US economy is enduring growth pains from supply chain disruption and a tight labor market that are feeding into higher inflation, and therefore a more hawkish central bank. Yet with both households and companies in generally good financial shape, these problems can be weathered, and US growth should remain above its structural rate for a while yet. Our US analysts outlined their relatively upbeat view in this webinar and explained what it means for asset markets.

Energy prices are likely to have a big impact on macroeconomics and market performance in the coming year. Our research team has assessed the effect of three different pricing scenarios on the US, Europe and emerging economies. In this webinar, they presented their findings.

China enters 2022 having made a very apparent shift in policy toward supporting economic stability, but it still has very obvious growth problems. The construction downturn is deepening, Covid restrictions are spreading and reliable growth engines could be fading. Is the government’s measured and moderate strategy up to the task?

Louis is convinced that the trend of higher energy prices, steeper yield curves and value stock outperformance is here to stay—at least until some major event comes along to change the story. Anatole, by contrast, continues to think that the inflation surge is about to be revealed as a scare and reckons that strong earnings growth will soon be driving a resurgence in growth stocks.

In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.