Videos

Interviews

Video: The Threat To Taiwan

Video: The Threat To Taiwan

6 Mar 2023
Tom recently returned from a research trip to Taiwan and heard a quite different view among politicians and security experts about the risk of an invasion from mainland China. Here he discusses whether the Taiwanese are being complacent, or simply properly realistic.
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Video: Parsing The US Growth Data

Video: Parsing The US Growth Data

22 Feb 2023
US risk assets sold off heavily on Wednesday as investors processed strengthening US economic data that points to more inflation and a less easy Federal Reserve. Tan Kai Xian explains why, in spite of recent strong data releases, the US economy may not be out of the woods, and may flatter to deceive.
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Video: Shifting Global Fund Flows

Video: Shifting Global Fund Flows

15 Feb 2023
After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.
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Video: Indignation Up The Indus

Video: Indignation Up The Indus

9 Feb 2023
India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.
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Video: The Asian Trade Cycle Lives

Video: The Asian Trade Cycle Lives

1 Feb 2023
Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.
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Video: Towards A South American Common Currency

Video: Towards A South American Common Currency

27 Jan 2023
With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.
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Video: Japan's Balancing Act

Video: Japan's Balancing Act

19 Jan 2023
Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.
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Video: Heading For A Disinflationary Bust?

Video: Heading For A Disinflationary Bust?

13 Jan 2023
December’s continued decline in US CPI inflation has buttressed Will’s view that the pieces are falling into place for the US Federal Reserve to hit pause on its program of interest rate increases, possibly as soon as March. For investors, however, this is a two-edged sword.
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Video: Europe's Green Borders

Video: Europe's Green Borders

6 Jan 2023
In December the European Union agreed on a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, which from 2026 will impose a tariff on certain imports to the bloc based on emissions from their production. Nick explains the plan and how it compares with protectionist measures in other major economies.
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Video: Another Congress, Another Debt Ceiling Showdown

Video: Another Congress, Another Debt Ceiling Showdown

15 Dec 2022
Another fight over the American debt ceiling is brewing in Washington, D.C. It is hard to think that the US government debt-ceiling standoff will not be settled but in the meantime, this could materially impact US liquidity conditions over the coming six months.
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Events

Webinar: Growth Shocks And Political Risk

Webinar: Growth Shocks And Political Risk

21 Apr 2022
Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.
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Webinar: Lockdown Redux

Webinar: Lockdown Redux

15 Apr 2022
In this webinar, our team provide an update on the rapidly changing on-the-ground situation in China, and discuss how this latest Covid shock will affect the economic trajectory for 2022.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2022

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2022

7 Apr 2022
Over the last year, Anatole and Louis have often duked it out over the issue of inflationary pressures and how this intense and truncated economic cycle will play out. Louis had been in the inflation worrier camp from the get-go, and in recent weeks Anatole has reluctantly joined him.
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London Seminar — March 2022

London Seminar — March 2022

4 Apr 2022
In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.
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Webinar: The US Asset Price Bubble Matures

Webinar: The US Asset Price Bubble Matures

31 Mar 2022
US asset prices have appreciated dramatically over the past two years, on the back of steady flows of new money and cheap credit. The question is: when will this maturing bubble burst? And how should investors position themselves today?
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Webinar: Is Europe Headed Toward Rising Inflation, Falling Output And Increasing Instability?

Webinar: Is Europe Headed Toward Rising Inflation, Falling Output And Increasing Instability?

24 Mar 2022
In the last month, investors in Europe have suffered a twin shock: the effects of surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the impact on financial market sentiment of policymakers’ responses to the worsening crisis. Our panelists discuss what's in store
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Webinar: China Goes For Growth

Webinar: China Goes For Growth

17 Mar 2022
China’s government has now made its priorities clear: stabilizing economic growth is the top task for 2022. But it faces a daunting list of challenges in that endeavor. Our China analysts interpret the latest data, decode the policy signals and review the outlook for markets.
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Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, March 2022

Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, March 2022

11 Mar 2022
As the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, and as Western sanctions on Russia bite, the world is now facing an inflationary energy and food price shock. Gavekal’s analysts assessed economies' ability to deal with this blow, policymakers' leeway and the likely reaction of financial markets.
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Webinar: Outside Expert Elbridge A Colby On Ukraine And The Way Forward

Webinar: Outside Expert Elbridge A Colby On Ukraine And The Way Forward

1 Mar 2022
Louis and Anatole were joined by Elbridge A. Colby to talk about the unfolding situation in Ukraine, assess the US’s potential responses, and answer viewer questions. Our guest is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.
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Webinar: The Impact Of Ukraine On Energy And Emerging Markets

Webinar: The Impact Of Ukraine On Energy And Emerging Markets

24 Feb 2022
Tom Holland warned that a further fall in the supply of Russian piped natural gas could lead to energy rationing for European industry. Vincent Tsui and Udith Sikand surveyed the emerging market landscape to determine the winners and losers from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve. Tom Miller reviewed Russia-China relations.
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