Videos

Interviews

Video: Hong Kong Tries To Reboot

Video: Hong Kong Tries To Reboot

10 Nov 2023
Hong Kong may not be the freewheeling city of yore, but is trying to effect a reboot that will again make it Asia’s premier international financial center. Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard assess where the offshore Chinese territory stands in its recovery from political protests, Covid isolation and a game-changing national security law which has crushed political dissent.
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Video: China Out Of The Depths

Video: China Out Of The Depths

3 Nov 2023
China’s economic growth momentum stabilized in the third quarter, but it remains fragile and at a weak level. In this video, Christopher Beddor discusses the Dragonomics team's latest quarterly macro chartbook, including the outlook for growth, the current state of the property market and the recent policy shift towards greater fiscal support.
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Video: Poland's Political Shift

Video: Poland's Political Shift

20 Oct 2023
Poland is lurching back to the center ground of European politics with a coalition led by the big beast Donald Tusk, expected to soon form a government. This is good news for architects of a closer European Union and is likely to benefit Poland’s economy.
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Video: Is Oil Heading To US$100?

Video: Is Oil Heading To US$100?

13 Oct 2023
In the wake of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Brent crude is trading at around US$87/bbl. That’s US$10/bbl lower than in late September. In this video interview, Tom Holland explores the reasons why the price of oil has failed to break through the US$100/bbl barrier and examines whether an escalation of the Gaza conflict could yet drive a painful spike in global prices.
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Video: Hurricane Season

Video: Hurricane Season

5 Oct 2023
As we enter October, historically a stormy season for financial markets, there are ominous signs that the recent steep sell-off in US treasury bonds is beginning to have an increasingly severe effect on other asset markets. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian looks at which sectors of the stock market are most at risk and assesses the probability of a sharp rise in broad equity volatility accompanied by an abrupt fall in prices.
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Video: Breasting The Bond Rout

Video: Breasting The Bond Rout

28 Sep 2023
In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this video interview, Louis explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major equity indexes under pressure, investors can seek safety amid the turbulence.
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Video: The Real State Of China's Economy

Video: The Real State Of China's Economy

22 Sep 2023
After August’s panic about a possible economic implosion in China has died down, Christopher Beddor offers a sober assessment of the current outlook. Growth momentum appears to be stabilizing, and the authorities are easing real estate market policy. However, the financial weakness of developers continues to put strains on less visible parts of the financial sector.
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Video: The Man In Demand

Video: The Man In Demand

8 Sep 2023
Five years ago, the effective ruler of Saudi Arabia, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, was ostracized by Western nations as an international pariah. Today, MBS, as the prince is known, is in demand from all sides.
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Video: China's Inward Turn

Video: China's Inward Turn

31 Aug 2023
On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.
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Video: Thailand's New Test

Video: Thailand's New Test

25 Aug 2023
Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.
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Events

Webinar: The Scramble For Electric Vehicles

Webinar: The Scramble For Electric Vehicles

17 Feb 2023
The reordering of the global automobile manufacturing industry is upending national economies and forcing many governments into avowedly protectionist industrial policies. Our team explored these dynamics and also addressed the supply chain for battery metals, with a focus on Indonesia.
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Webinar: Debating The US Outlook

Webinar: Debating The US Outlook

10 Feb 2023
Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.
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Webinar: An Electioneering Budget

Webinar: An Electioneering Budget

2 Feb 2023
With India’s next national election due in the second quarter of 2024, the budget released on February 1 seems firmly focused on winning votes. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller put India’s budget into context and chart the implications for investors.
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Webinar: Worst Case Averted. What Next For Europe?

Webinar: Worst Case Averted. What Next For Europe?

27 Jan 2023
A mild winter has averted Europe’s long-feared energy crisis, and the prospect of a demand boost from China’s reopening has raised hopes for growth and lifted European markets. Cedric and Nick review the continent’s macro and market conditions and chart a course to navigate the coming quarters.
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally

Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally

20 Jan 2023
China continues to reel from a massive wave of Covid infections, but cases may have already peaked in most places. In this webinar our China team discussed the pace of reopening and its market implications. Ernan Cui provided the latest updates on the Covid situation, and Thomas Gatley assessed how far the reopening rally has to run.
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Webinar: The Big Investment Themes Of 2023

Webinar: The Big Investment Themes Of 2023

14 Jan 2023
Will the fall of the US dollar over the last quarter of 2022 continue in 2023? What does China’s reopening mean for asset markets? For commodities demand? And for global inflation? And what is the outlook for OECD bonds? In this webinar Louis tackles the big questions head-on, and expands on his key investment themes for the year ahead.
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Webinar: China After The Reopening

Webinar: China After The Reopening

16 Dec 2022
China’s reopening from Covid containment is already well under way, and looks likely to be fast and messy. In this webinar members of our China team assessed the outlook next year for monetary and fiscal policy, capital markets and the country’s ailing property sector.
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Webinar: Looking Ahead To 2023

Webinar: Looking Ahead To 2023

9 Dec 2022
Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.
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Webinar: Fiscal And Monetary Policy After The Midterms

Webinar: Fiscal And Monetary Policy After The Midterms

2 Dec 2022
With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.
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Webinar: China’s Loss, India’s Gain

Webinar: China’s Loss, India’s Gain

24 Nov 2022
India's stock market has been one of the best performing in Asia this year, and the country is also benefiting from contract tech manufacturers starting to redirect direct investment from China. The question for the Indian economy is whether domestic companies follow suit and help to initiate a new investment cycle.
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