Videos

China’s disappointing economic growth over the past year has led many to conclude that it is heading into the same deflationary trap that swallowed Japan in the 1990s. In this video, Arthur discusses the comparison and China’s growth outlook, as well as the government’s new policy priorities and geopolitical risks ahead.

US commercial real estate has been a slow-moving train wreck for more than a year now. But over the coming months, the sector’s problems are set to accelerate. Sales by troubled Chinese investors have resurrected price discovery, and are likely to force US institutions into markdowns. In turn this will hurt the value of assets held by lenders to the sector, including pension funds and private equity funds. Tan Kai Xian assesses the extent of the damage.

Fresh back from a research trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Tom Miller shares his impressions of Saudi’s efforts to transform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on petroleum, talks about the effect of the Gaza conflict on regional relations, and assesses the state of the Gulf countries’ relationships with the world’s two economic superpowers: the United States and China.

On Wednesday, China replaced its stock market regulator as part of a series of choreographed interventions seemingly intended to bolster support for bombed-out equities and so avert a spiral of decline in the nation’s asset markets. In this video interview, Thomas argues that the combined effect of recent macro policy moves in addition to market support actions should allow a solid bounce in Chinese equities. What comes after that is far less clear.

In this video interview, Cedric Gemehl digs into the polling numbers for June's European Parliament election and explains how Europe’s institutions will likely adapt to a possible electoral shock amid a political economy of protest movements across the continent.

In trying to prop up US banks after the Silicon Valley Bank bust in March last year, the Federal Reserve introduced a liquidity facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program. Banks in November and December started to take advantage of a widening arbitrage opportunity from this facility.

Dismissed not long ago as a phantom of negative-real-rate delirium, bitcoin is up nearly 60% over the last three months, with the run-up propelled in part by prospects for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines the underpinnings of the rally, and asks whether there are lessons to be learned from the rollout of gold ETFs 20 years ago.

Following a year in which anyone hoping for a reopening rally in China was cruelly disappointed, Louis examines the reasons many international money managers believe China is now uninvestible, and asks whether these can change in 2024.

After the fighting in Gaza remained largely contained through much of the final quarter of 2023, the risk that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle Eastern region—with potentially grievous economic costs—has risen sharply in recent weeks.

After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.

As markets stabilize after the ructions caused by the US’s banking travails, it is time to take stock of what has changed for investors. In this webinar Charles and Louis update their views on the global macro situation with a particular focus placed on an accelerated “dedollarization” that both of them see as a major factor now influencing markets and investment returns.

As US firms operating in key industries get huge subsidies under the sprawling Inflation Reduction Act and Chinese firms consolidate their dominance in sectors like battery technology, European firms feel hemmed in on all sides. In this webinar, our team assesses the options open to Europe and what it all means for the region’s longer-term growth outlook.

Hoping to turn the page on a traumatic 2022, China’s government has unveiled a new agenda to be carried out by fresh faces in 2023. In this webinar our China team discusses the outlook for the economy, the political risks and the drivers for markets.

Will Denyer discussed the banking trouble in the US and how it might affect the Federal Reserve’s course of action, Arthur Kroeber presented on China’s economic outlook and geopolitical strategy, and Louis sought to identify the key themes for investors in 2023.

In this webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl reviewed the state of the US and European banking systems, and explored what the SVB debacle means for the economy, central bank policy and portfolios.

Emerging market analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui outlined the two big forces that will drive EM performance over the rest of 2023, and explored the three main macro scenarios EM investors are likely to face.

Global investors fled Chinese assets in 2022, believing there were simply too many risks from China’s confrontation with the West and domestic policy missteps. But since last November, portfolio money has poured back in, casting doubt on the idea that China is permanently uninvestible.

For the last decade, China has been working slowly but surely to establish a new Asian monetary system as an alternative to the US-dollar-based system Asian economies have used since 1945. In this webinar, Charles Gave assesses its progress.

The reordering of the global automobile manufacturing industry is upending national economies and forcing many governments into avowedly protectionist industrial policies. Our team explored these dynamics and also addressed the supply chain for battery metals, with a focus on Indonesia.

Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.