Videos

France accounts for around a quarter of outstanding sovereign debt in the eurozone and continues to be plagued by political instability. Over the Christmas break, the French government tried and again failed to pass a national budget. The worry is that such uncertainty starts to undermine economic confidence and tip the economy into a recession. Cedric acknowledges these risks but in this video explains why he thinks that France will not upset the European apple cart.

After two national guards were tragically shot by an Afghan national near the White House, the Trump administration has again tightened its immigration policy. The issue is that this stance comes with economic costs and potentially threatens the government’s stated aim of reindustrializing the United States. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian explains how US policymakers will likely manage that balancing act.

In today’s Daily, Louis cited global consumer staple stocks as one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. Will takes a similar view and in this video explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—and thereby breaking a long cycle of underperformance.

With around four months to go until Hungary’s April 2026 general election, the party of long-serving prime minister Victor Orban is trailing in the polls. In this video interview, Gavekal’s European economist Cedric Gemehl surveys the Hungarian political landscape and examines what a potential defeat for the Russophile prime minister could mean.

As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.

After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just. But although the resolution’s approval is an achievement in itself, the latest step does little to resolve the contradictions in Trump’s plan and the obstacles they present to progress. In this interview, Tom Holland assesses the chances of success and weighs the costs of a possible breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire.

Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.

Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.

Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.

Fresh back from a tour of Southeast Asia, Tom Miller offers a study in contrasts between Vietnam and Indonesia. While both have new leaders each a year into his term and each promising economic reform, the two countries’ economic trajectories are starkly different. Tom provides some notes from the road.

In Gavekal’s London conference last week, partners and analysts covered a wide range of topics across five panels: China and emerging markets; the potential end of US exceptionalism; a fireside chat with Charles Gave; trade and technology wars; and investment strategy.

China's equity markets have gone on a renewed tear since July—just when its economic data started to soften. The disconnect between macro and markets has only widened since then, with local traders getting more excited and economists more concerned. Our China team assessed the changing landscape.

Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.

The global inflationary boom for the moment remains well set, with both monetary and fiscal settings in most economies remaining loose to very loose. The result is that equity markets continue to trend higher but in an increasingly differentiated pattern. At the same time, the fundamentals for OECD bonds remain terrible and investors are thus engaged in a desperate search for solid stores of value. Our panel reviewed the macro situation and explored viable asset allocation strategies.

Laila Khawaja joins Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about the many facets of the growing US-China technology rivalry. Topics include the question of who is winning the AI race, the politics of Nvidia's chip sales in China, the significance of the deal apparently struck this week to sell TikTok to US owners, and whether Trump and Xi can forge a bigger trade and tech agreement later this fall.

The US economy looks to be at an inflection point with the labor market softening and upward price pressures fading. Unnerved by tariffs early this year, investors seem persuaded that they will not spark a rapid spike in inflation. All the while, the future of the Federal Reserve as an independent institution is in play. Our panel pick through these key topics that are likely to dictate market action in the coming weeks.

So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.

Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.

China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.