Videos

Tuesday brought a series of developments with major implications for the US interest rate outlook, from the latest CPI release and the US president's apparent Taco over his Strait of Hormuz toll threat to Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual Congressional testimony. In this interview, Will explains what these events mean for interest rates and the outlook for US bonds.

China’s consumers are in a funk: retail sales declined in May for the first time since the pandemic, and larger retailers reported an especially sizable contraction in revenue. In this interview, Ernan unpacks the many factors weighing on China’s households, and discusses the likely trajectory for consumption growth in the months ahead.

European policymakers are becoming increasingly hyperbolic about the threat Chinese producers pose to the continent's industrial base. As industrial giants such as Volkswagen restructure and slash jobs, fears of a new China shock are reaching fever pitch. Yet Cedric argues that this increasingly popular narrative is too simplistic, and overlooks what is really happening beneath the surface.

After a spectacular run-up following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, European defense stocks have struggled in 2026. Since January, the broad sector index is down around -10%, with some leading names down much more, as investors have questioned whether European countries will be able to meet their defense spending targets. In this interview, August Gudmundsson examines which countries’ promises are credible and which are not, and looks at how they plan to spend the funds available.

Kevin Warsh has announced five task forces within the Federal Reserve to explore five key factors influencing the way it makes monetary policy. In this video interview, Will discusses whether this amounts to a bureaucratic exercise or if Warsh is preparing the ground for radical change at the US central bank.

As the US, Mexico and Canada jointly host the world’s biggest sporting event, the football world cup, the governments of the three countries will sit down to review the trilateral USMCA trade agreement that came into force in 2020. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the goals each team is aiming for in the review, assesses the likely outcomes of the review process and gauges their potential macro effects—good and bad—for the three economies.

Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.

Global bond investors have plenty of concerns to keep them awake at night, including the likely actions of a new Federal Reserve chair. While most attention has focused on Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials, Will outlines a series of potential changes to the Fed's core operations that could have far-reaching implications.

Just days after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin also touched down in Beijing for his own meeting with the Chinese leader. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the objectives of China’s diplomatic push, digs into the energy trade that underpins Russia-China relations, assesses whether the US-China summit was a triumph of style over substance, and examines how evolving strategies over Taiwan affect the balance between Washington and Beijing.

In a bid to curb precious metals purchases and defend the currency, India has more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver. The move follows calls from Prime Minister Narendra Modi for Indians to tighten their belts as the country reels from a soaring energy import bill following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Udith explains how mounting stresses in the currency market could ripple through Indian politics and asset markets.

At the beginning of March, China’s government will announce its economic agenda and budget for 2026, as well as its next five-year plan. The leadership is sounding confident, with some reason, but there are many questions on policy. Exports are booming and industrial upgrading is proceeding, but the anti-involution campaign is scrambling incentives. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is cautious, even though growth has been slowing. Officials are talking up their plans to boost consumption, but household sentiment is still weak. In this webinar, our China team assess these and other issues, and explain what to expect from China macro and markets in 2026.

India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.

For years, the extreme undervaluation of the Chinese currency has been the biggest single anomaly in global financial markets. In recent weeks, however, the renminbi has begun to appreciate at an accelerating pace, with the Chinese authorities setting their daily fixing at successively stronger rates. By the standards of other currencies, the moves so far are small. But the implications are far-reaching, and potentially even epochal. In this webinar Louis-Vincent Gave unpacks the importance of the renminbi’s exchange rate for global investors.

The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.

To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.

Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.

The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.

A year ago, Alexandre Larrain and Louis-Vincent Gave, sat down to discuss the opportunity in Latin American debt markets. Since then, the region's most important bond markets have rallied and important elections are set to occur in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil. Against this backdrop, is the opportunity set in Latin American debt still attractive? Alexandre and Louis discussed these issues and other questions in this Latam Debt webinar.

How durable is the US’s artificial intelligence-driven boom and associated equity bubble? Will Denyer sought to answer this question and suggested investing strategies. Kai Xian covered three initiatives being pursued by the Trump administration—immigration control, reindustrialization and national security policy—and assessed their investment implications.

In Gavekal’s London conference last week, partners and analysts covered a wide range of topics across five panels: China and emerging markets; the potential end of US exceptionalism; a fireside chat with Charles Gave; trade and technology wars; and investment strategy.