Videos

International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.

Michael Barr is stepping down from his role as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision earlier than expected. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses what this move signifies about Fed independence in the upcoming Trump administration and what is likely to be the shape of US regulation.

Over the last 18 months, eurozone bank stocks have outperformed the broad market by a factor of three. But since the US presidential election, they have given back some of those gains. In this video interview, Cedric examines what has driven the bull run in European bank stocks to determine whether the rally has now reached its end, or whether it has further to run.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

European stock markets sold off and the euro fell heavily in the days following Donald Trump’s US election triumph. The declines reflected market participants’ views that a new Trump presidency will be bad news for the heavily export-dependent European economy. Cedric Gemehl goes looking for any silver linings for the old continent, and differentiates potential winners and losers.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt “no”. In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

Enthusiasts for the revitalization of US manufacturing have been heartened by recent news that TSMC’s Arizona chip fabrication plant is delivering higher production yields than the company’s fabs back home in Taiwan. This appears to be good news for the competitiveness of US manufacturing. But digging beneath the surface, Tilly and KX find things are less simple.

Since the Chinese Politburo’s pivot towards stimulus in late September, almost every one of the government’s major economic agencies has held a press conference on the measures it is taking to support growth. In this interview, Christopher assesses the likely impact of initiatives to bail out local governments, recapitalize banks, encourage property sales, support demand and juice up the equity market. And he tells us what to watch out for next.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.

China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.

France goes to the polls this weekend in the first of two elections to choose a new national assembly. Voters are being offered starkly different visions of the way the country should be governed, and a lot is at stake for investors who have provided generous funding over the years to the French government. In this webinar, our French experts assess the race and offer an analysis of what different outcomes could mean for the pricing of French assets and those across the eurozone.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.

After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November’s election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.