Videos

Interviews

 
Video: Oil Market Game Theory

Video: Oil Market Game Theory

7 May 2025
Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In this video interview, Tom looks at the game-theory calculus that prompted Opec+ to increase production into a soft market, and at what will drive the oil price over the remainder of 2025.
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Video: What Hope For Deregulation?

Video: What Hope For Deregulation?

2 May 2025
In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.
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Video: Milei's Peso Gamble

Video: Milei's Peso Gamble

24 Apr 2025
Argentina recently loosened capital controls and floated its currency in a bid to rejoin global capital markets. Under Javier Milei, the country has been engaged in a radical free market experiment for the last 16 months, as it seeks to conquer inflation and stabilize the economy. Tom recently returned from a research trip to Argentina, and in this interview discusses how the Milei project is going and whether it is replicable elsewhere in Latin America.
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Video: The Anatomy Of A Bond Sell-Off

Video: The Anatomy Of A Bond Sell-Off

14 Apr 2025
It seems clear that last week’s bond market sell-off was the trigger for the Trump administration backing off its maximalist stance on tariffs. But what was the key factor driving that sell-off? In this interview, Will explores whether it was triggered by a change in the US growth outlook, inflation fears, a looming bond supply shock or capital flight from the US.
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Video: The Trade War And China’s Home Front

Video: The Trade War And China’s Home Front

10 Apr 2025
As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China’s domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.
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Video: Tariffs Versus Tax Cuts

Video: Tariffs Versus Tax Cuts

3 Apr 2025
The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.
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Video: Which Way After Gold's Big Rally?

Video: Which Way After Gold's Big Rally?

26 Mar 2025
As other formerly hot asset classes have rolled over, gold has continued to advance through February and March, setting a new record high above US$3,050/oz. In this video, Gavekal founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave examines the fundamental drivers of gold’s rally, considers the metal’s valuation, and asks whether the run-up can continue.
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Video: Are EMs Back?

Video: Are EMs Back?

20 Mar 2025
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
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Video: Can China's Equity Outperformance Last?

Video: Can China's Equity Outperformance Last?

13 Mar 2025
The last time that the US and China got embroiled in a trade war, Chinese equities badly underperformed. Since January, however, Chinese equities have performed strongly, while their US counterparts have entered into correction territory. In this video interview, Thomas explains the cyclical and structural factors behind this trend.
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Video: After Gaza, Grand Plans

Video: After Gaza, Grand Plans

6 Mar 2025
Incredulity and outrage have greeted Donald Trump’s mooted Gaza redevelopment plan across the Arab world. Just back from a research trip to Egypt, Gavekal senior analyst Tom Miller discusses the Arab states’ rival proposals for Gaza, touches on how US policy has affected America’s standing in the region, and looks at how the developments of the last few years have affected Egypt’s own economic prospects.
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Events

Webinar: Europe In The Eye Of The Storm

Webinar: Europe In The Eye Of The Storm

6 Mar 2025
European policymakers face the biggest strategic upheaval since World War II and a potential trans-Atlantic trade war for good measure. On the plus side for those with a Keynesian bent, the European Union may be spurred to cast off self-imposed fiscal rules which have constrained its performance over the last 15 years. In this webinar, Anatole and Cedric assess the choices that Europe faces and what different outcomes will mean for growth and markets.
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Webinar: Is China Turning The Corner?

Webinar: Is China Turning The Corner?

21 Feb 2025
Technological optimism seems to be doing what macroeconomic policy could not: change foreign investors’ minds about China. At the same time the nascent rebound in the property market is at risk of stalling out amid a policy vacuum. And signals of greater comity between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have not prevented the escalation of US tariffs on China. In this webinar, our China team assesses the conflicting signals for the outlook for 2025.
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Webinar: The Future Of AI After DeepSeek

Webinar: The Future Of AI After DeepSeek

7 Feb 2025
DeepSeek stunned the world with the release of two new AI models with performance comparable to models from the US market leaders, but which the Chinese company developed at a fraction of the cost and with less powerful chips. Tilly Zhang, Gavekal’s technology analyst, founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave and US economist Will Denyer assessed the extent of DeepSeek’s achievement and examined what it means for China’s AI development, US export controls, and the future of the US tech stock bull market.
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Webinar: The Trump Agenda

Webinar: The Trump Agenda

24 Jan 2025
All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.
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Webinar: Can Crypto Continue Its Charge?

Webinar: Can Crypto Continue Its Charge?

8 Jan 2025
Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.
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Webinar: The Tough Case For Europe

Webinar: The Tough Case For Europe

6 Dec 2024
With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.
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Webinar: Before The Storm

Webinar: Before The Storm

22 Nov 2024
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.
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Webinar: After The Vote

Webinar: After The Vote

8 Nov 2024
As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.
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Webinar: Pricing The Election Outcome

Webinar: Pricing The Election Outcome

1 Nov 2024
Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.
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Webinar: Testing The Reflation Hypothesis

Webinar: Testing The Reflation Hypothesis

18 Oct 2024
A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.
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