Videos

As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China’s domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.

The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.

As other formerly hot asset classes have rolled over, gold has continued to advance through February and March, setting a new record high above US$3,050/oz. In this video, Gavekal founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave examines the fundamental drivers of gold’s rally, considers the metal’s valuation, and asks whether the run-up can continue.

It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.

The last time that the US and China got embroiled in a trade war, Chinese equities badly underperformed. Since January, however, Chinese equities have performed strongly, while their US counterparts have entered into correction territory. In this video interview, Thomas explains the cyclical and structural factors behind this trend.

Incredulity and outrage have greeted Donald Trump’s mooted Gaza redevelopment plan across the Arab world. Just back from a research trip to Egypt, Gavekal senior analyst Tom Miller discusses the Arab states’ rival proposals for Gaza, touches on how US policy has affected America’s standing in the region, and looks at how the developments of the last few years have affected Egypt’s own economic prospects.

On the surface Hong Kong and Singapore might seem similar. But while Hong Kong is uncomfortably exposed to trade war escalation, Singapore is relatively immune from the threat of tariffs. And while Singapore’s equity market has registered a respectable, if uninspiring, performance over the past 12 months, the Hong Kong market has recovered its animal spirits. Udith looks at what lies behind these partings of the way.

The United States has announced a series of new tariff initiatives on trading partners but not implemented many of them, pending reports by officials and negotiations with other countries. The market’s interpretation seems to be that this is a performative action by President Donald Trump that establishes his dominance among leaders but points to a trade war being averted. Arthur unpicks this proposition and cautions that investors may be underestimating the inflationary impact of what is likely to follow.

The US equity market, and the Magnificent Seven in particular, have benefited from AI excitement and a perception that the US is the unambiguous leader in this technological race. Then came the DeepSeek release which has challenged those basic assumptions. In order to think through the sector’s competitive dynamics, Will says it is useful to break the market down into the makers of AI applications and users of them.

Marco Rubio is the first US Secretary of State since 1912 to initiate his term in office with a multi-country tour of Latin America. For the most part, he did not come bearing gifts, but wielded a large stick as the new Trump administration seeks to achieve its policy aims of halting illegal migration and the flow of drugs across its southern border, while also countering Chinese influence in the region. In this video, Tom argues why it will be hard for the US to foster a powerful neo-Monroe doctrine beyond its immediate backyard.

DeepSeek stunned the world with the release of two new AI models with performance comparable to models from the US market leaders, but which the Chinese company developed at a fraction of the cost and with less powerful chips. Tilly Zhang, Gavekal’s technology analyst, founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave and US economist Will Denyer assessed the extent of DeepSeek’s achievement and examined what it means for China’s AI development, US export controls, and the future of the US tech stock bull market.

All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.

Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.

Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.