Videos

Interviews

Video: The Data Center Constraint

Video: The Data Center Constraint

10 May 2024
Data centers are emerging as massive users of electricity that power-producers in many economies are struggling to serve. Data centers are also large-scale users of water, which is a scarce resource in many regions. In this video, Kai Xian discusses whether such constraints will impede the rollout of AI applications and thus hinder the hoped-for productivity improvement they promise to deliver.
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Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

Video: Can Yen Intervention Work?

2 May 2024
A sharp strengthening of the yen late Wednesday suggested the Bank of Japan was again intervening in the foreign exchange market after it spent an estimated US$35bn to counter yen weakness on Monday. In this video interview, Udith Sikand examines the currency market dynamics to gauge the likely effectiveness of the Japanese authorities’ campaign to limit further yen weakness.
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Video: The Problem With France

Video: The Problem With France

26 Apr 2024
France’s government debt readings keep going from bad to worse, yet sovereign bond investors do not seem to be punishing policymakers for their spendthrift ways. In this video, Cedric explores different political scenarios that could upset the French apple cart.
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Video: Wading Into The South China Sea

Video: Wading Into The South China Sea

18 Apr 2024
As confrontations have flared between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, US president Joe Biden has declared an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ defense in a trilateral security pact along with Japan. Gavekal geopolitical risk analyst Yanmei Xie delves into the background of the tensions, and assesses the potential for future clashes drawing in US forces in the region.
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Video: The Employment-Immigration-Inflation Nexus

Video: The Employment-Immigration-Inflation Nexus

10 Apr 2024
Even as US employment growth has remained strong in recent months, wage growth has continued to ease. Kai Xian attributes this paradox in part to rapid immigration into the US, which is supporting the supply of new workers. This implies that immigration policy will have a significant influence on the US labor market, wage growth and inflation over the coming years.
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Video: Vietnam's Paralysis

Video: Vietnam's Paralysis

4 Apr 2024
Tom recently conducted a research trip to Vietnam and found that the key issue vexing foreign investors in the country is fallout from an escalating “anti-corruption” campaign, which has paralyzed economic policymaking. In this interview, he discusses whether the resulting power struggle within the ruling Communist Party could upend what has been one of the world’s best development stories over recent years.
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Video: Towards A World Of Trade Fragmentation

Video: Towards A World Of Trade Fragmentation

27 Mar 2024
As China’s government has doubled down on industrial development as its driver of growth, economies elsewhere have grown increasingly concerned about their ability to compete as Chinese producers move rapidly up the value chain. In this short video interview, Yanmei Xie assesses the risks posed by rising protectionism, and identifies potential winners and losers.
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Video: A US Nuclear Renaissance?

Video: A US Nuclear Renaissance?

22 Mar 2024
Over the last two decades, the share of nuclear power in the US energy mix has flatlined. Yet with the US signed up to carbon emission reduction targets and power-hungry tech firms looking for clean energy sources to power their vast server farms, there is a renewed impetus to develop modern nuclear options.
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Video: The Importance Of TikTok

Video: The Importance Of TikTok

14 Mar 2024
The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill aimed at forcing China’s Bytedance to divest TikTok has implications in areas far beyond the future of the wildly popular video-sharing platform. In this short video interview, Louis Gave examines the potential consequences for media freedom, for US-owned big-tech platforms, and for foreign investment in the United States.
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Video: Peering Through The China Policy Opacity

Video: Peering Through The China Policy Opacity

8 Mar 2024
The first week of March saw China’s government present its economic policy targets and fiscal plans for the year ahead. In this video interview, Christopher peers through the official fog to assess the degree of policy support on offer for China’s economy and discusses how this affects the growth outlook.
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Events

Webinar: Animal Spirits In The Emerging Markets

Webinar: Animal Spirits In The Emerging Markets

22 Mar 2024
While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.
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Webinar: Asset Allocation For The Ages

Webinar: Asset Allocation For The Ages

8 Mar 2024
In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.
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Webinar: Reading The Market’s Conflicting Signals

Webinar: Reading The Market’s Conflicting Signals

23 Feb 2024
So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.
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Webinar: The US And Europe Compared

Webinar: The US And Europe Compared

9 Feb 2024
A soft-landing scenario looks to be playing out in the US, with inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and growth humming along. Across the pond, the eurozone seems to be headed the same way, albeit with lower growth. Our team of specialists asked if such an “immaculate disinflation” is possible on both sides of the Atlantic and explored what it means for relative monetary policy settings and asset price performance.
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Webinar: Dealing With China's Deflation

Webinar: Dealing With China's Deflation

26 Jan 2024
China's economy is limping into 2024, beset by a deflationary dynamic of deficient domestic demand. Markets are depressed too: prices of bonds and equities show little optimism for future growth despite government promises of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Our China team analyzed the causes and consequences of this deflationary pressure, and the prospects for relief via an improvement in property.
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Webinar: The World In 2024

Webinar: The World In 2024

11 Jan 2024
Gavekal’s senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.
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Beijing Seminar — December 2023

Beijing Seminar — December 2023

14 Dec 2023
In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.
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Webinar: Europe At A Turning Point?

Webinar: Europe At A Turning Point?

7 Dec 2023
Europe's latest data releases show an economy that is weak but not worsening. The hope for investors is that a soft-landing scenario plays out, but risks abound that could threaten this rosy outlook. Our European analysts assess where the eurozone economy is heading and what it means for regional financial assets.
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Webinar: Taking The Global Temperature

Webinar: Taking The Global Temperature

23 Nov 2023
The global economy has held up better than many commentators had expected early in the year. What comes next? Our team of analysts covering China, the US, Europe and emerging markets will outline their views in this webinar.
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Webinar: China's Search For Stability

Webinar: China's Search For Stability

10 Nov 2023
After months of mixed signals, China’s government is now moving more actively to shore up the economy. But the property crisis remains stubbornly unresolved, and faces problems in domestic consumption and external demand look strong enough to drive a broad rebound. Can China finally achieve some economic stability after years of repeated shocks?
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