Videos

In the last few years, investors have generally done well to minimize their exposure to long-dated US treasuries. But now, with the 10-year US treasury yield up almost 430bp in the last six years and the US Treasury itself buying back long-dated debt, it makes sense to ask whether investors should reassess their stance on bond market duration.

The Trump administration seems to be entering a new phase of economic coercion, as tariffs, secondary sanctions and tighter trade enforcement increasingly work together. In this video interview, Tom considers the latest tariff moves against Canada and Brazil, the legal status of the broader US tariff regime and the looming crackdown on illegal transshipments through countries integrated into Chinese supply chains. He assesses whether these measures are setting the stage for a renewed escalation of the US-China trade war.

China’s industrial-policy support for domestic companies has raised hackles abroad, prompting allegations of unfair competition and excess capacity—and in turn rebuttals from Beijing. But what do listed-company data reveal about such government aid? In this video, Thomas explains how much state support the firms receive, how it is changing and why it relates to the recent string of blockbuster IPOs.

China’s arrival as a serious AI competitor threatens to upend an investment boom so far dominated by a small group of mostly US and allied companies. Chinese labs are already producing frontier-level models despite restricted access to advanced chips, while a determined push to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain could eventually challenge the incumbents in AI hardware. Will considers the winners and losers from the disruption.

China’s economy slowed again in the second quarter, with little sign of domestic demand picking up. While traveling around China, Tom Miller found packed trains and tourist towns, but also complaints about low spending. For many, quality of life now appears to trump making money. Still, competition to provide goods and services remains brutal. And China’s high-tech economy keeps surging ahead, with monasteries in the mountains of Sichuan now receiving deliveries by drone.

With the US-Iran war now five months old, and with no negotiated peace in sight, energy-importing economies must face up to the prospect that supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter approaches. With the European Union’s stores of natural gas already unusually depleted for the time of year, Tom Holland considers the possible consequences for Europe’s economies.

The Indian rupee has remained under pressure despite a series of measures, including offering overseas Indians highly attractive deposits in exchange for locking funds into the currency. In this interview, Udith examines why those efforts have so far failed to reverse the rupee’s weakness and assesses the broader macroeconomic trade-offs. He also discusses the htreats to India’s macroeconomic outlook and what this means for investors expecting a turnaround in the rupee.

Tuesday brought a series of developments with major implications for the US interest rate outlook, from the latest CPI release and the US president's apparent Taco over his Strait of Hormuz toll threat to Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual Congressional testimony. In this interview, Will explains what these events mean for interest rates and the outlook for US bonds.

China’s consumers are in a funk: retail sales declined in May for the first time since the pandemic, and larger retailers reported an especially sizable contraction in revenue. In this interview, Ernan unpacks the many factors weighing on China’s households, and discusses the likely trajectory for consumption growth in the months ahead.

European policymakers are becoming increasingly hyperbolic about the threat Chinese producers pose to the continent's industrial base. As industrial giants such as Volkswagen restructure and slash jobs, fears of a new China shock are reaching fever pitch. Yet Cedric argues that this increasingly popular narrative is too simplistic, and overlooks what is really happening beneath the surface.

US economic actions, on the face of it, threaten Europe’s strategic and economic wellbeing. The continent’s export industries have been roiled by the US president’s trade war, while the attack on Iran risks an inflationary surge as energy prices climb. At the same time, Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from the Atlantic alliance and has reduced support for Ukraine. Our panel addresses whether this new reality signals a death knell for the European integration project, or whether it is the catalyst Europe needs to rethink both its economic and strategic models.

The relatively closed US economy is arguably the best positioned to weather disruption stemming from the Iran war. Yet even it finds itself at an awkward juncture. As high-income households generally thrive in an environment of technological disruption and high asset prices, those in the middle and lower end are struggling due to financial strain and inflation. Will and Kai Xian explore the balance of these forces, the impacts of the war and concerns around big outflows from the private credit sector and what that means for credit transmission in the economy.

The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.

Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.

At the beginning of March, China’s government will announce its economic agenda and budget for 2026, as well as its next five-year plan. The leadership is sounding confident, with some reason, but there are many questions on policy. Exports are booming and industrial upgrading is proceeding, but the anti-involution campaign is scrambling incentives. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is cautious, even though growth has been slowing. Officials are talking up their plans to boost consumption, but household sentiment is still weak. In this webinar, our China team assess these and other issues, and explain what to expect from China macro and markets in 2026.

India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.

For years, the extreme undervaluation of the Chinese currency has been the biggest single anomaly in global financial markets. In recent weeks, however, the renminbi has begun to appreciate at an accelerating pace, with the Chinese authorities setting their daily fixing at successively stronger rates. By the standards of other currencies, the moves so far are small. But the implications are far-reaching, and potentially even epochal. In this webinar Louis-Vincent Gave unpacks the importance of the renminbi’s exchange rate for global investors.

The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.

To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.

Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.