Videos

As we enter October, historically a stormy season for financial markets, there are ominous signs that the recent steep sell-off in US treasury bonds is beginning to have an increasingly severe effect on other asset markets. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian looks at which sectors of the stock market are most at risk and assesses the probability of a sharp rise in broad equity volatility accompanied by an abrupt fall in prices.

In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this video interview, Louis explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major equity indexes under pressure, investors can seek safety amid the turbulence.

After August’s panic about a possible economic implosion in China has died down, Christopher Beddor offers a sober assessment of the current outlook. Growth momentum appears to be stabilizing, and the authorities are easing real estate market policy. However, the financial weakness of developers continues to put strains on less visible parts of the financial sector.

Five years ago, the effective ruler of Saudi Arabia, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, was ostracized by Western nations as an international pariah. Today, MBS, as the prince is known, is in demand from all sides.

On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China’s increasingly isolationist mood, as the country’s leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China’s economic growth.

Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.

Headline inflation in the UK has started to moderate just as wages rise in a material way. That is giving rise to concerns about a wage-price spiral and is likely to constrain any monetary easing moves made by the Bank of England. In this video, Nick assesses what the dynamic means for the UK economy and for an already stressed gilt market.

Despite 525bp of interest rate hikes in less than 18 months, far from sliding into recession as many observers expected, the US economy continues to grow at a respectable if unspectacular rate and unemployment remains close to 50-year lows at just 3.5%. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian digs into what is different about this cycle of monetary tightening—and what remains the same.

US treasury yields have risen to the top of their trading range since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on Tuesday. It comes as the US Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of new debt to fund US government deficits. Kai Xian assesses the resulting change in the liquidity environment and what this means for investors.

The likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta have embraced generative artificial intelligence applications, but workers are fearful for their jobs and governments are threatening to regulate the industry. Will examines the possible macro impacts of the generative AI boom and compares it to previous examples of disruptive technological breakthroughs.

As US firms operating in key industries get huge subsidies under the sprawling Inflation Reduction Act and Chinese firms consolidate their dominance in sectors like battery technology, European firms feel hemmed in on all sides. In this webinar, our team assesses the options open to Europe and what it all means for the region’s longer-term growth outlook.

Hoping to turn the page on a traumatic 2022, China’s government has unveiled a new agenda to be carried out by fresh faces in 2023. In this webinar our China team discusses the outlook for the economy, the political risks and the drivers for markets.

Will Denyer discussed the banking trouble in the US and how it might affect the Federal Reserve’s course of action, Arthur Kroeber presented on China’s economic outlook and geopolitical strategy, and Louis sought to identify the key themes for investors in 2023.

In this webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl reviewed the state of the US and European banking systems, and explored what the SVB debacle means for the economy, central bank policy and portfolios.

Emerging market analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui outlined the two big forces that will drive EM performance over the rest of 2023, and explored the three main macro scenarios EM investors are likely to face.

Global investors fled Chinese assets in 2022, believing there were simply too many risks from China’s confrontation with the West and domestic policy missteps. But since last November, portfolio money has poured back in, casting doubt on the idea that China is permanently uninvestible.

For the last decade, China has been working slowly but surely to establish a new Asian monetary system as an alternative to the US-dollar-based system Asian economies have used since 1945. In this webinar, Charles Gave assesses its progress.

The reordering of the global automobile manufacturing industry is upending national economies and forcing many governments into avowedly protectionist industrial policies. Our team explored these dynamics and also addressed the supply chain for battery metals, with a focus on Indonesia.

Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.

With India’s next national election due in the second quarter of 2024, the budget released on February 1 seems firmly focused on winning votes. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller put India’s budget into context and chart the implications for investors.