Videos

International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.

Michael Barr is stepping down from his role as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision earlier than expected. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses what this move signifies about Fed independence in the upcoming Trump administration and what is likely to be the shape of US regulation.

Over the last 18 months, eurozone bank stocks have outperformed the broad market by a factor of three. But since the US presidential election, they have given back some of those gains. In this video interview, Cedric examines what has driven the bull run in European bank stocks to determine whether the rally has now reached its end, or whether it has further to run.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

European stock markets sold off and the euro fell heavily in the days following Donald Trump’s US election triumph. The declines reflected market participants’ views that a new Trump presidency will be bad news for the heavily export-dependent European economy. Cedric Gemehl goes looking for any silver linings for the old continent, and differentiates potential winners and losers.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt “no”. In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

Enthusiasts for the revitalization of US manufacturing have been heartened by recent news that TSMC’s Arizona chip fabrication plant is delivering higher production yields than the company’s fabs back home in Taiwan. This appears to be good news for the competitiveness of US manufacturing. But digging beneath the surface, Tilly and KX find things are less simple.

Since the Chinese Politburo’s pivot towards stimulus in late September, almost every one of the government’s major economic agencies has held a press conference on the measures it is taking to support growth. In this interview, Christopher assesses the likely impact of initiatives to bail out local governments, recapitalize banks, encourage property sales, support demand and juice up the equity market. And he tells us what to watch out for next.

While US tech stocks have been getting all the publicity, capital has quietly been flowing into emerging market investments over recent months. To gauge market prospects over the rest of 2024, Udith Sikand examined the macroeconomic outlook for the major emerging markets ex-China, while Thomas Gatley assessed the chances of a revival of animal spirits in the Middle Kingdom.

In recent years, Charles Gave and Didier Darcet have headed an initiative in Paris to develop a more perfect form of asset allocation. In this webinar, they review how their asset allocation strategy works during phase changes in the economic environment, as now seems to be the case.

So far in 2024, yields have rebounded on stronger-than-expected growth and inflation, along with heavy issuance by the US Treasury. Yet the rally in equities has continued undismayed, with especially strong gains in big US growth stocks. With the bond market and equity market sending conflicting signals, Anatole and Louis examined the macro and market scenarios for the rest of the year and drew conclusions for asset allocation.

A soft-landing scenario looks to be playing out in the US, with inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and growth humming along. Across the pond, the eurozone seems to be headed the same way, albeit with lower growth. Our team of specialists asked if such an “immaculate disinflation” is possible on both sides of the Atlantic and explored what it means for relative monetary policy settings and asset price performance.

China's economy is limping into 2024, beset by a deflationary dynamic of deficient domestic demand. Markets are depressed too: prices of bonds and equities show little optimism for future growth despite government promises of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Our China team analyzed the causes and consequences of this deflationary pressure, and the prospects for relief via an improvement in property.

Gavekal’s senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.

In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.

Europe's latest data releases show an economy that is weak but not worsening. The hope for investors is that a soft-landing scenario plays out, but risks abound that could threaten this rosy outlook. Our European analysts assess where the eurozone economy is heading and what it means for regional financial assets.

The global economy has held up better than many commentators had expected early in the year. What comes next? Our team of analysts covering China, the US, Europe and emerging markets will outline their views in this webinar.

After months of mixed signals, China’s government is now moving more actively to shore up the economy. But the property crisis remains stubbornly unresolved, and faces problems in domestic consumption and external demand look strong enough to drive a broad rebound. Can China finally achieve some economic stability after years of repeated shocks?