Videos

Interviews

Video: Vietnam's Paralysis

Video: Vietnam's Paralysis

4 Apr 2024
Tom recently conducted a research trip to Vietnam and found that the key issue vexing foreign investors in the country is fallout from an escalating “anti-corruption” campaign, which has paralyzed economic policymaking. In this interview, he discusses whether the resulting power struggle within the ruling Communist Party could upend what has been one of the world’s best development stories over recent years.
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Video: Towards A World Of Trade Fragmentation

Video: Towards A World Of Trade Fragmentation

27 Mar 2024
As China’s government has doubled down on industrial development as its driver of growth, economies elsewhere have grown increasingly concerned about their ability to compete as Chinese producers move rapidly up the value chain. In this short video interview, Yanmei Xie assesses the risks posed by rising protectionism, and identifies potential winners and losers.
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Video: A US Nuclear Renaissance?

Video: A US Nuclear Renaissance?

22 Mar 2024
Over the last two decades, the share of nuclear power in the US energy mix has flatlined. Yet with the US signed up to carbon emission reduction targets and power-hungry tech firms looking for clean energy sources to power their vast server farms, there is a renewed impetus to develop modern nuclear options.
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Video: The Importance Of TikTok

Video: The Importance Of TikTok

14 Mar 2024
The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill aimed at forcing China’s Bytedance to divest TikTok has implications in areas far beyond the future of the wildly popular video-sharing platform. In this short video interview, Louis Gave examines the potential consequences for media freedom, for US-owned big-tech platforms, and for foreign investment in the United States.
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Video: Peering Through The China Policy Opacity

Video: Peering Through The China Policy Opacity

8 Mar 2024
The first week of March saw China’s government present its economic policy targets and fiscal plans for the year ahead. In this video interview, Christopher peers through the official fog to assess the degree of policy support on offer for China’s economy and discusses how this affects the growth outlook.
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Video: China’s New Economic Trajectory

Video: China’s New Economic Trajectory

29 Feb 2024
China’s disappointing economic growth over the past year has led many to conclude that it is heading into the same deflationary trap that swallowed Japan in the 1990s. In this video, Arthur discusses the comparison and China’s growth outlook, as well as the government’s new policy priorities and geopolitical risks ahead.
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Video: More Trouble Ahead For Commercial Real Estate

Video: More Trouble Ahead For Commercial Real Estate

23 Feb 2024
US commercial real estate has been a slow-moving train wreck for more than a year now. But over the coming months, the sector’s problems are set to accelerate. Sales by troubled Chinese investors have resurrected price discovery, and are likely to force US institutions into markdowns. In turn this will hurt the value of assets held by lenders to the sector, including pension funds and private equity funds. Tan Kai Xian assesses the extent of the damage.
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Video: Gulf States In Transition

Video: Gulf States In Transition

15 Feb 2024
Fresh back from a research trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Tom Miller shares his impressions of Saudi’s efforts to transform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on petroleum, talks about the effect of the Gaza conflict on regional relations, and assesses the state of the Gulf countries’ relationships with the world’s two economic superpowers: the United States and China.
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Video: The Chinese Equity Rout

Video: The Chinese Equity Rout

8 Feb 2024
On Wednesday, China replaced its stock market regulator as part of a series of choreographed interventions seemingly intended to bolster support for bombed-out equities and so avert a spiral of decline in the nation’s asset markets. In this video interview, Thomas argues that the combined effect of recent macro policy moves in addition to market support actions should allow a solid bounce in Chinese equities. What comes after that is far less clear.
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Video: Pricing Europe’s Populist Surge

Video: Pricing Europe’s Populist Surge

1 Feb 2024
In this video interview, Cedric Gemehl digs into the polling numbers for June's European Parliament election and explains how Europe’s institutions will likely adapt to a possible electoral shock amid a political economy of protest movements across the continent.
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Events

Webinar: Macro And Monetary Rules To Drive Global Asset Allocation

Webinar: Macro And Monetary Rules To Drive Global Asset Allocation

23 Jun 2023
Didier Darcet leads a team of researchers in Paris who focus on asset allocation questions through the Gavekal-IS service. Starting with the “permanent portfolio” developed by US activist and investment advisor Harry Browne, in this webinar he explains the team’s methodology.
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Webinar: China’s Southern Gambit

Webinar: China’s Southern Gambit

16 Jun 2023
After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington’s containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China’s relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China’s strategy is likely to play out.
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Webinar: Japan's Sea Change

Webinar: Japan's Sea Change

9 Jun 2023
For decades, Japan has been derided as a value trap for investors. Now, things are changing. Inflation is back, and this time it’s bedding down. Wages are rising. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to back away from its ultra-easy monetary policies. Long-running policy efforts to strengthen corporate governance are beginning to unlock value for investors in the stock market, and with the Japanese yen still deeply undervalued, there are prospects of sizable currency appreciation. Udith Sikand outlines Japan’s unique value proposition for investors.
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Webinar: In Search Of Europe’s Second Half Drivers

Webinar: In Search Of Europe’s Second Half Drivers

2 Jun 2023
Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone’s economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.
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Webinar: Boomer Vs Buster

Webinar: Boomer Vs Buster

26 May 2023
Anatole Kaletsky insists that the US remains in an inflationary boom and will avoid a near-term recession. Will Denyer is on the other side of Gavekal’s internal debate, contending that a disinflationary US recession is around the corner. In this webinar, Will asked the questions in order to test out Anatole’s convictions.
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Webinar: An End Point For US-China Tensions?

Webinar: An End Point For US-China Tensions?

19 May 2023
Until recently the US government’s approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.
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Webinar: Turkey And Thailand—Two Elections At A Hard Time For EMs

Webinar: Turkey And Thailand—Two Elections At A Hard Time For EMs

12 May 2023
Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy’s prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.
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Webinar: The US Economy Balancing Act

Webinar: The US Economy Balancing Act

5 May 2023
Will and KX have been in the camp arguing that such trends point to a US economy heading towards recession. They update their view with a particular focus on the strength of the US consumer and in light of this week's Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
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Webinar: A Health Check On China's Recovery

Webinar: A Health Check On China's Recovery

28 Apr 2023
China’s economic rebound is well under way, with GDP growth in the first quarter beating expectations on the back of strengthening household consumption and property sales. But many still have doubts about the strength of the recovery. Thomas Gatley and Wei He assess what the data tell us about the recovery so far, as well as the outlook for economic growth and asset markets.
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Beijing Seminar — April 2023

Beijing Seminar — April 2023

26 Apr 2023
In last week's seminar in Beijing, Will Denyer discussed the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy; Arthur Kroeber spoke on China’s long-term growth trajectory and the strategy to counter US efforts to hinder its technological development; Andrew Batson presented an update on China's post-Covid recovery and answered audience questions along with Rosealea Yao and Xiaoxi Zhang.
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