Videos

Interviews

Video: Germany’s Mixed Messages On China

Video: Germany’s Mixed Messages On China

20 Jul 2023
In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany’s relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin’s previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.
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Video: India's Rising Star

Video: India's Rising Star

14 Jul 2023
There are increasing signs that the Indian government’s focus on investment spending, is starting to “crowd-in” private investment and spur consumption. Moreover, inflation is cooling, paving the way for monetary policy to be eased. In this interview, Udith assesses India’s prospects and explains what this improving macro-outlook means for India’s already highly performing asset markets.
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Video: The Fiscal Effect Of French Fragmentation

Video: The Fiscal Effect Of French Fragmentation

7 Jul 2023
The lawless behavior seen on French streets last week was shocking, but not unprecedented. Cedric contends that in the short term, this episode is unlikely to materially impact the economy or financial markets in France. However, the evident fragmentation of French politics—and society—will make it more difficult for the government to handle the country’s worsening fiscal situation.
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Video: China-Russia After Wagner

Video: China-Russia After Wagner

29 Jun 2023
As the mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow, there was a deafening silence from Russia’s biggest neighbor. China has been a key economic support for Russia even as it attempts to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but during the tense stand-off, Chinese officials lent no public support to Putin’s regime. Yanmei unpacks the China-Russia relationship and assesses how things are likely to progress.
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Video: China's Changing Property Story

Video: China's Changing Property Story

22 Jun 2023
China’s property market started the year strong following the reopening from Covid containment, but weakened substantially after Q1. It now threatens to drag down the broader economic recovery. In this interview, Rosealea assesses the state of the market, how policymakers are likely to respond and what it means for the likely trajectory ahead.
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Video: The Crypto Crackdown

Video: The Crypto Crackdown

16 Jun 2023
After a decade of what might be called benign neglect, the crypto industry has recently been on the receiving end of a US regulatory crackdown. In this video interview, Will explains that the sector in fact faces headwinds from three different corners of the US policymaking apparatus, and outlines what that might mean for curious investors.
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Video: España In The Works

Video: España In The Works

9 Jun 2023
On July 23, Spain goes to the polls in a hastily-called election, which on current polling could lead to protracted coalition talks and a government of new faces. If so, the result will complicate the outlook for Spain’s second-half rotating presidency of the EU, at a time when clear leadership will be needed to steer the reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules. Nick Andrews reviews the political landscape and sets out the challenges.
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Video: A Disappointing China

Video: A Disappointing China

31 May 2023
Louis recently spent time meeting companies and investors in China and found that animal spirits have indeed taken a big knock as a result of government policies. In this video interview, he discusses what this mood shift means for asset markets and offers a view on how investors should play a more circumspect China.
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Video: Towards A More Temperate Recovery

Video: Towards A More Temperate Recovery

24 May 2023
For China bulls, April really was the cruelest month, with economic indicators undershooting expectations almost across the board. In response, market sentiment has swung from the excessive bullishness that prevailed at the end of 2022 to what looks now like an excess of bearishness.
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Video: More Downside For US Housing

Video: More Downside For US Housing

18 May 2023
There are tentative signs that the US housing downturn is flattening out, however, Will is not convinced that an upswing now beckons. He worries that US housing remains unaffordable by historical standards and the new home market is moderately oversupplied. As a member of the US recession camp, he worries that a looming deterioration in the labor market will reinforce these negative drivers.
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Events

Webinar: How Investible Is China?

Webinar: How Investible Is China?

3 Mar 2023
Global investors fled Chinese assets in 2022, believing there were simply too many risks from China’s confrontation with the West and domestic policy missteps. But since last November, portfolio money has poured back in, casting doubt on the idea that China is permanently uninvestible.
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Webinar: The New Asian Monetary Zone

Webinar: The New Asian Monetary Zone

23 Feb 2023
For the last decade, China has been working slowly but surely to establish a new Asian monetary system as an alternative to the US-dollar-based system Asian economies have used since 1945. In this webinar, Charles Gave assesses its progress.
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Webinar: The Scramble For Electric Vehicles

Webinar: The Scramble For Electric Vehicles

17 Feb 2023
The reordering of the global automobile manufacturing industry is upending national economies and forcing many governments into avowedly protectionist industrial policies. Our team explored these dynamics and also addressed the supply chain for battery metals, with a focus on Indonesia.
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Webinar: Debating The US Outlook

Webinar: Debating The US Outlook

10 Feb 2023
Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.
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Webinar: An Electioneering Budget

Webinar: An Electioneering Budget

2 Feb 2023
With India’s next national election due in the second quarter of 2024, the budget released on February 1 seems firmly focused on winning votes. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller put India’s budget into context and chart the implications for investors.
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Webinar: Worst Case Averted. What Next For Europe?

Webinar: Worst Case Averted. What Next For Europe?

27 Jan 2023
A mild winter has averted Europe’s long-feared energy crisis, and the prospect of a demand boost from China’s reopening has raised hopes for growth and lifted European markets. Cedric and Nick review the continent’s macro and market conditions and chart a course to navigate the coming quarters.
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally

Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally

20 Jan 2023
China continues to reel from a massive wave of Covid infections, but cases may have already peaked in most places. In this webinar our China team discussed the pace of reopening and its market implications. Ernan Cui provided the latest updates on the Covid situation, and Thomas Gatley assessed how far the reopening rally has to run.
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Webinar: The Big Investment Themes Of 2023

Webinar: The Big Investment Themes Of 2023

14 Jan 2023
Will the fall of the US dollar over the last quarter of 2022 continue in 2023? What does China’s reopening mean for asset markets? For commodities demand? And for global inflation? And what is the outlook for OECD bonds? In this webinar Louis tackles the big questions head-on, and expands on his key investment themes for the year ahead.
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Webinar: China After The Reopening

Webinar: China After The Reopening

16 Dec 2022
China’s reopening from Covid containment is already well under way, and looks likely to be fast and messy. In this webinar members of our China team assessed the outlook next year for monetary and fiscal policy, capital markets and the country’s ailing property sector.
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Webinar: Looking Ahead To 2023

Webinar: Looking Ahead To 2023

9 Dec 2022
Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.
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