Videos

A new spirit of mercantilism is abroad in the US, with Donald Trump’s Republican Party proposing a “baseline tariff” on all goods imports, as well as targeted higher tariffs on imports from China, should it capture the White House in November’s election. In this interview, Yanmei assesses what this means.

Two months ago, Kai Xian made a cautiously bullish call on the US housing market, as a downturn in activity had looked to be bottoming out. In the intervening period, however, conditions for US homebuilders continued to worsen. In this interview, he explains what happened and what he expects to happen next.

Over the past month, the frequency, intensity and severity of clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah has ramped up on the Israel-Lebanon border. That may already have been responsible for pushing the oil price higher. In this interview, Yanmei assesses the forces of escalation against the strength of the guardrails that have kept the conflict fairly contained so far.

The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.

The surprise election announcement by French president Emmanuel Macron last week was followed by market turmoil as investors priced in greater political uncertainty in France. Setting the politics aside for a moment, Cedric assesses the new environment for equities and bonds, and invokes the old Gavekal concept of “national victims” to chart the potential outcomes for listed companies exposed to the French market or who operate in heavily regulated sectors.

As the European Union slaps punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, Louis ponders the problem with the developed world’s responses so far to China’s rapid climb up the global value curve: they are all inflationary for developed-economy consumers. One—admittedly speculative—alternative would be a new Plaza Accord. That would depend on a change of political direction in the US, but the implications for financial markets would be earthshaking.

Saudi Arabia’s US$11bn follow-on offering for oil giant Aramco follows a spate of Saudi sovereign issues this year in domestic and international debt markets. Nevertheless, talk that Riyadh is facing a mounting fiscal squeeze as it attempts to fund a list of expensive mega-projects as part of an unrealistic economic transition program are exaggerated.

Mexicans go to the polls this Sunday to elect a new president after several years in which the Mexican economy has benefited from the realignment of global supply chains. Fresh back from a trip to Mexico’s China-invested factory lands, Tom Miller assesses how the new president will endeavor to attract fresh inward investment while navigating mounting criticism from Washington that Mexico is acting as a back door into the US for unfairly underpriced Chinese goods.

China’s policymakers announced several new property policies last week, including a call for local governments to buy back residential land from developers and purchase housing inventories for conversion into affordable homes. Christopher examines this latest attempt to bolster the ailing property sector and evaluates whether it might succeed where earlier efforts have failed.

Vladimir Putin visited Beijing this week a few weeks after senior US officials were in town to berate Chinese policymakers over their alleged supply of “dual-use” products to Russia. Chinese sales of machine tools, industrial widgets and microchips are reportedly key to Russia’s reinvigorated weapons production program but Xi Jinping is likely to preside over a relatively cautious approach to the trade.

After months of mixed signals, China’s government is now moving more actively to shore up the economy. But the property crisis remains stubbornly unresolved, and faces problems in domestic consumption and external demand look strong enough to drive a broad rebound. Can China finally achieve some economic stability after years of repeated shocks?

The conflagration in Gaza has spurred a geopolitical crisis that has so far had a limited impact on global markets. The calculation of investors has been that the key players involved in the Middle East want to prevent escalation towards a regional war. In this webinar, our team unpick the latest developments and explain what they mean for the oil market and other asset values.

A vicious bear market in the financial world’s primary “risk-free” asset is affecting other markets, from equities through currencies to commodities, and threatens to undermine the very foundations on which the global financial architecture is constructed. In this webinar, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer examine both the near-term outlook for asset prices and the longer-term implications for financial markets.

After a nasty deflationary shock, China's macro data have started to turn around at the margin. Yet markets remain unconvinced, with equities headed down and the currency still under pressure. Our China macro and markets experts will tackle these and other urgent questions about the outlook.

At out latest seminar in Paris, the speakers discussed the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. They also examined what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.

Our research panels tackle the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. We end by asking what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.

The global investment environment remains blighted by sustained inflationary pressure, tapped-out Western governments and a weakening Chinese economy. But tech stocks are again surging, this time on AI-fueled expectations. Anatole, Arthur and Louis pick through these dynamics to explain how these apparently conflicting trends may play out.

China’s growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?

Didier Darcet leads a team of researchers in Paris who focus on asset allocation questions through the Gavekal-IS service. Starting with the “permanent portfolio” developed by US activist and investment advisor Harry Browne, in this webinar he explains the team’s methodology.

After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington’s containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China’s relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China’s strategy is likely to play out.