Videos

In trying to prop up US banks after the Silicon Valley Bank bust in March last year, the Federal Reserve introduced a liquidity facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program. Banks in November and December started to take advantage of a widening arbitrage opportunity from this facility.

Dismissed not long ago as a phantom of negative-real-rate delirium, bitcoin is up nearly 60% over the last three months, with the run-up propelled in part by prospects for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines the underpinnings of the rally, and asks whether there are lessons to be learned from the rollout of gold ETFs 20 years ago.

Following a year in which anyone hoping for a reopening rally in China was cruelly disappointed, Louis examines the reasons many international money managers believe China is now uninvestible, and asks whether these can change in 2024.

After the fighting in Gaza remained largely contained through much of the final quarter of 2023, the risk that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle Eastern region—with potentially grievous economic costs—has risen sharply in recent weeks.

After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.

The United States and China are courting middle powers across the globe in an effort to gain further economic and political influence. One such “geopolitical swing state” is Vietnam, where China's top leader, Xi Jinping, has just returned from his first trip in six years, following hot on the heels of US president Joe Biden’s visit in September.

For more than 30 years, there has been a fairly reliable inverse correlation between US treasury bonds and equities which has been the bedrock of most balanced portfolio strategies. Of late, however, that relationship has gone awry and the two asset classes have tended to move in lockstep—both up and down. In this video interview, Louis tries to explain what is going on and what happens next.

On the face of it, the US housing sector has had a rotten year, with new home prices down some -18% over the period. So why are US homebuilder stocks approaching record highs? Tan Kai Xian seeks to unpick the market's dynamics in this video and answer the question: is this time different?

Argentina’s president-elect Javier Milei wants to scrap the Argentinian peso and adopt the US dollar in an attempt to end the inflation-plagued economy’s perma-crisis once and for all. But there are formidable practical difficulties that are likely to derail Milei’s plans.

Easing consumer inflation in October and a not too hot, not too cold jobs report have helped to extend a rally in US stock and bond markets. In this video interview, chief US economist Will Denyer looks behind the headline numbers to explore what the latest US data releases are really telling investors in US markets.

Gavekal partners discuss the dominant macro factors impacting global economies and markets in the coming year. Anatole assesses whether an inflation-busting recession really does beckon for the US and other major economies. Arthur presents an update on China’s messy exit from zero-Covid and explains what this means for its economic outlook. Louis moderates the discussion.

With a change of political control looming in the US House of Representatives, fiscal policy could be increasingly important in dictating the remainder of this economic cycle. On top of that, the Federal Reserve may soon pivot. Will and KX unpick what this all means.

India's stock market has been one of the best performing in Asia this year, and the country is also benefiting from contract tech manufacturers starting to redirect direct investment from China. The question for the Indian economy is whether domestic companies follow suit and help to initiate a new investment cycle.

Although Europe has a decent chance at escaping painful energy rationing this winter, higher energy prices have already hurt growth, while inflation has become entrenched across much of the economy. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weighed the forces driving European growth and inflation, and assessed the outlook for financial markets.

As the global economy shifts down a gear and the Federal Reserve continues to turn the screws on inflation, Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for investors in a run-in to the year-end which looks like it may not be pretty.

The US economy is approaching recession territory, while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten liquidity conditions. Add in political uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections and this is a testing moment to be managing a portfolio. In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian offered suggestions on where to seek shelter from the storm.

Where will Xi Jinping take China after the conclusion of the Party Congress? In this webinar, our China team assessed what we learned, and what we didn't, from the most important event in the Communist Party's political calendar. They decoded the signals on politics and policy, explored the implications of the new leadership team, and analyzed the next evolution of Covid strategy.

In our London seminar, Anatole Kaletsky assessed the outlook for global markets, Cedric Gemehl updated his view on Europe, Tom Miller considered the effects of China's National Party Congress and Charles Gave considered the possibility that this time really could be different.

Over the last decade, Asian property markets have done especially well on a cocktail of cheap money and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Yet as policymakers in Asia struggle to catch up with the US Federal Reserve by raising interest rates, Asian property markets look exposed.

As fears mount for the growth outlook around the world, Arthur Kroeber examined the state of China’s economy and what to expect (and what not to expect) from China’s upcoming Communist Party Congress. Anatole Kaletsky presented his latest views on growth and inflation. And Charles Gave discussed optimum portfolio construction for troubled times.