Videos

The likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta have embraced generative artificial intelligence applications, but workers are fearful for their jobs and governments are threatening to regulate the industry. Will examines the possible macro impacts of the generative AI boom and compares it to previous examples of disruptive technological breakthroughs.

In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany’s relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin’s previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.

There are increasing signs that the Indian government’s focus on investment spending, is starting to “crowd-in” private investment and spur consumption. Moreover, inflation is cooling, paving the way for monetary policy to be eased. In this interview, Udith assesses India’s prospects and explains what this improving macro-outlook means for India’s already highly performing asset markets.

The lawless behavior seen on French streets last week was shocking, but not unprecedented. Cedric contends that in the short term, this episode is unlikely to materially impact the economy or financial markets in France. However, the evident fragmentation of French politics—and society—will make it more difficult for the government to handle the country’s worsening fiscal situation.

As the mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow, there was a deafening silence from Russia’s biggest neighbor. China has been a key economic support for Russia even as it attempts to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but during the tense stand-off, Chinese officials lent no public support to Putin’s regime. Yanmei unpacks the China-Russia relationship and assesses how things are likely to progress.

China’s property market started the year strong following the reopening from Covid containment, but weakened substantially after Q1. It now threatens to drag down the broader economic recovery. In this interview, Rosealea assesses the state of the market, how policymakers are likely to respond and what it means for the likely trajectory ahead.

After a decade of what might be called benign neglect, the crypto industry has recently been on the receiving end of a US regulatory crackdown. In this video interview, Will explains that the sector in fact faces headwinds from three different corners of the US policymaking apparatus, and outlines what that might mean for curious investors.

On July 23, Spain goes to the polls in a hastily-called election, which on current polling could lead to protracted coalition talks and a government of new faces. If so, the result will complicate the outlook for Spain’s second-half rotating presidency of the EU, at a time when clear leadership will be needed to steer the reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules. Nick Andrews reviews the political landscape and sets out the challenges.

Louis recently spent time meeting companies and investors in China and found that animal spirits have indeed taken a big knock as a result of government policies. In this video interview, he discusses what this mood shift means for asset markets and offers a view on how investors should play a more circumspect China.

For China bulls, April really was the cruelest month, with economic indicators undershooting expectations almost across the board. In response, market sentiment has swung from the excessive bullishness that prevailed at the end of 2022 to what looks now like an excess of bearishness.

In this webinar, Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian examined market moves so far this year to figure out whether US equities now have fallen enough to warrant going overwheight, and whether US treasury yields have risen enough to justify extending duration and/or placing recession bets.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave, along with Europe analyst Cedric Gemehl and Gavekal Intelligence Software's quantitative research principal Didier Darcet, discussed the global investment outlook, provided an update on European markets and outlined the latest research on portfolio construction.

As inflation rises and central banks move to tighten monetary policy, global markets have become progressively more skittish. Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky address the state of the global economy and offer their best advice on structuring portfolios.

Nick Andrews discusses cyclical dynamics in Europe and the central bank’s policy responses. Louis-Vincent Gave presents his take on French politics and the broader macroeconomic picture.

Global growth is under the spotlight as central banks try to handle inflation. In China, Covid lockdowns threaten domestic demand and global supply chains. Additionally, there is the possibility of a political shock emanating in France.

In this webinar, our team provide an update on the rapidly changing on-the-ground situation in China, and discuss how this latest Covid shock will affect the economic trajectory for 2022.

Over the last year, Anatole and Louis have often duked it out over the issue of inflationary pressures and how this intense and truncated economic cycle will play out. Louis had been in the inflation worrier camp from the get-go, and in recent weeks Anatole has reluctantly joined him.

In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.

US asset prices have appreciated dramatically over the past two years, on the back of steady flows of new money and cheap credit. The question is: when will this maturing bubble burst? And how should investors position themselves today?

In the last month, investors in Europe have suffered a twin shock: the effects of surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the impact on financial market sentiment of policymakers’ responses to the worsening crisis. Our panelists discuss what's in store