Videos

US commercial real estate has been a slow-moving train wreck for more than a year now. But over the coming months, the sector’s problems are set to accelerate. Sales by troubled Chinese investors have resurrected price discovery, and are likely to force US institutions into markdowns. In turn this will hurt the value of assets held by lenders to the sector, including pension funds and private equity funds. Tan Kai Xian assesses the extent of the damage.

Fresh back from a research trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Tom Miller shares his impressions of Saudi’s efforts to transform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on petroleum, talks about the effect of the Gaza conflict on regional relations, and assesses the state of the Gulf countries’ relationships with the world’s two economic superpowers: the United States and China.

On Wednesday, China replaced its stock market regulator as part of a series of choreographed interventions seemingly intended to bolster support for bombed-out equities and so avert a spiral of decline in the nation’s asset markets. In this video interview, Thomas argues that the combined effect of recent macro policy moves in addition to market support actions should allow a solid bounce in Chinese equities. What comes after that is far less clear.

In this video interview, Cedric Gemehl digs into the polling numbers for June's European Parliament election and explains how Europe’s institutions will likely adapt to a possible electoral shock amid a political economy of protest movements across the continent.

In trying to prop up US banks after the Silicon Valley Bank bust in March last year, the Federal Reserve introduced a liquidity facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program. Banks in November and December started to take advantage of a widening arbitrage opportunity from this facility.

Dismissed not long ago as a phantom of negative-real-rate delirium, bitcoin is up nearly 60% over the last three months, with the run-up propelled in part by prospects for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines the underpinnings of the rally, and asks whether there are lessons to be learned from the rollout of gold ETFs 20 years ago.

Following a year in which anyone hoping for a reopening rally in China was cruelly disappointed, Louis examines the reasons many international money managers believe China is now uninvestible, and asks whether these can change in 2024.

After the fighting in Gaza remained largely contained through much of the final quarter of 2023, the risk that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle Eastern region—with potentially grievous economic costs—has risen sharply in recent weeks.

After a fairly terrible 2023, US bank shares have rebounded in the last month. This seems counter intuitive given that bond yields have been falling and the US yield curve has gotten more inverted. Will explains the vector from the Fed’s apparent dovish pivot to bank stocks and an interesting arbitrage which has opened up that seems to be the equivalent of free money for them.

The United States and China are courting middle powers across the globe in an effort to gain further economic and political influence. One such “geopolitical swing state” is Vietnam, where China's top leader, Xi Jinping, has just returned from his first trip in six years, following hot on the heels of US president Joe Biden’s visit in September.

The US dollar continues to make new highs, dragging the rest of the world’s currencies lower and forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy to deal with resulting threats of financial instability and heightened inflation. In this webinar, our team of currency-focused analysts looked at the effect of the current global liquidity crisis in their regions.

Thomas Gatley discussed his in-depth research into who owns China’s listed firms and answered viewer questions. Over the past decade a new hybrid form of ownership has emerged, which arguably represents the corporate form best adapted to succeed in China’s state capitalist economy. But there are risks to this new model.

With European energy prices for the coming winter up by 500% or more, inflation broadening, and businesses and consumers pessimistic, Europe’s economies are in for a troubled few months. Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discuss what it all means.

China's economy faces two critical challenges: A property sector is in its worst slump in years. And the economic impact of persistent Covid lockdowns caused by sporadic outbreaks from more transmissible Covid variants. In this webinar, Dragonomics analysts discussed the challenges.

Anatole outlined the global growth and inflation outlook, and why financial markets have yet to fully adjust; Charles presented his thinking on the dissolution of the post-World-War-Two order and what this means for assets; and Arthur gave an update on China ahead of the 20th Party Congress.

In this webinar Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer discussed the outlook for the US economy and markets over the next 18 months. Additionally, Charles Gave gave an update on the evolving international US dollar liquidity crisis.

China today is a major source of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Its zero-Covid policy has a significant economic cost, the recovery of the property and tech sectors remains in doubt and the close relationship with Russia raises geopolitical questions. In this webinar, our team attempted to sort out these perplexities.

Amid a broad-based tightening of global financial conditions, there are fears that emerging markets as an asset class could get caught in the downdraft. Yet notably, EM assets have not underperformed those in developed markets; in the case of currencies, they have outperformed.

As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.

Between rampant inflation, rising interest rates and high energy prices, the risk of recession is growing on both sides of the Atlantic. China may be stimulating its economy, but could get stuck in a liquidity trap. In this webinar our team assessed growth prospects across the world's major regions.