Videos

Three weeks into the “banking crisis”, Louis takes stock of the reaction from asset markets and considers how investors should be positioning themselves.

China’s hotly anticipated economic indicators for January and February, released this week, revealed for the first time the state of the economic recovery after the reopening from Covid containment. Christopher unpacks what the data show and the likely trajectory for growth this year.

The US yield curve has not been this severely inverted since 1981, giving rise to fears that a recession in the world’s biggest economy may be nigh. Yield curve inversions do not always signal a recession, but every recession since the mid-1960s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Will explains why that is the case and what it means for asset allocators.

Tom recently returned from a research trip to Taiwan and heard a quite different view among politicians and security experts about the risk of an invasion from mainland China. Here he discusses whether the Taiwanese are being complacent, or simply properly realistic.

US risk assets sold off heavily on Wednesday as investors processed strengthening US economic data that points to more inflation and a less easy Federal Reserve. Tan Kai Xian explains why, in spite of recent strong data releases, the US economy may not be out of the woods, and may flatter to deceive.

After years of US dollar strength, 2023 opens with the prospect that Chinese holders of US dollars now begin to deploy the funds they accumulated over Covid. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may shift policy and spark repatriation flows. Louis examines the implications.

India has just notified Pakistan that it wants to renegotiate a treaty governing the Indus River basin that has been operable since 1960. In this video interview, Udith explores what lies behind this request and what could happen next.

Export-orientated Asian economies always suffer in times of global economic weakness and Vincent does not expect this cycle to be markedly different. However, he does wonder if two key pillars supporting Asian export demand mean that asset markets have overdone the gloom in making the adjustment.

With January’s visit of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Buenos Aires, Brazil and Argentina have begun talks about establishing a common currency to boost South American intra-regional trade. In this video interview, Udith examines the potential benefits of the proposed “sur,” and also the challenges that will make any South American currency union a very long-term project.

Touring G-7 capitals in early January, Japan's prime minister was eager to strengthen defense agreements with Western allies. Yet he seemed less enthusiastic about imposing export controls. Yanmei examines Tokyo’s diplomatic position and assesses the potential economic costs to Japan of confrontation with China.

In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.

US asset prices have appreciated dramatically over the past two years, on the back of steady flows of new money and cheap credit. The question is: when will this maturing bubble burst? And how should investors position themselves today?

In the last month, investors in Europe have suffered a twin shock: the effects of surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the impact on financial market sentiment of policymakers’ responses to the worsening crisis. Our panelists discuss what's in store

China’s government has now made its priorities clear: stabilizing economic growth is the top task for 2022. But it faces a daunting list of challenges in that endeavor. Our China analysts interpret the latest data, decode the policy signals and review the outlook for markets.

As the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, and as Western sanctions on Russia bite, the world is now facing an inflationary energy and food price shock. Gavekal’s analysts assessed economies' ability to deal with this blow, policymakers' leeway and the likely reaction of financial markets.

Louis and Anatole were joined by Elbridge A. Colby to talk about the unfolding situation in Ukraine, assess the US’s potential responses, and answer viewer questions. Our guest is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.

Tom Holland warned that a further fall in the supply of Russian piped natural gas could lead to energy rationing for European industry. Vincent Tsui and Udith Sikand surveyed the emerging market landscape to determine the winners and losers from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve. Tom Miller reviewed Russia-China relations.

As European economies emerge from the pandemic, policymakers have signaled a sooner-than-expected normalization of monetary policy, which has spooked investors. In this webinar, our team evaluated if the ECB is serious about raising interest rates later this year and whether this looks like a 2011-style policy mistake in the making.

The US economy is enduring growth pains from supply chain disruption and a tight labor market that are feeding into higher inflation, and therefore a more hawkish central bank. Yet with both households and companies in generally good financial shape, these problems can be weathered, and US growth should remain above its structural rate for a while yet. Our US analysts outlined their relatively upbeat view in this webinar and explained what it means for asset markets.

Energy prices are likely to have a big impact on macroeconomics and market performance in the coming year. Our research team has assessed the effect of three different pricing scenarios on the US, Europe and emerging economies. In this webinar, they presented their findings.