Videos

Chinese and global automakers showed off their latest electric vehicles at this year’s Beijing Auto Show, which wrapped on May 3. There are many impressive new Chinese EVs, but the latest models of some of the global automakers are just as innovative and cheap. Ernan Cui argues that after falling behind their Chinese rivals, some of the global auto brands have found ways to both improve their EV tech and lower prices—though that involves some costly trade-offs.

The United Arab Emirates has asked the United States for a US dollar swap line. The US Treasury Secretary has indicated openness and could approve the request. However, there are strong reasons for the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to steer countries towards the newer emergency liquidity facility, the foreign repo facility established in 2020.

On Tuesday, attention in Washington will focus on the politics surrounding Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Assuming Donald Trump’s nominee is ultimately confirmed, Will considers how he may approach the role, and whether he will, as many expect, end up doing the administration’s bidding on monetary policy.

The effects of the Iran war are being felt by national power systems globally, but the United States is relatively insulated due to its abundant domestic sources of hydrocarbons. There are, however, winners and losers from this energy shock within the US power system, says Kai Xian. In this video interview he outlines who is up and who is down.

The open-source artificial-intelligence agent OpenClaw has become wildly popular in China and the wider AI world. In this interview, Tilly dissects how OpenClaw plays to the advantages of Chinese AI developers, and its implications for the economics of AI in China—as well as how it might encourage greater take-up of Chinese AI models more broadly.

It is not just US retail gasoline prices that have risen since the start of the Iran war. Long-dated US treasury yields are also up, which implies higher interest rates for new mortgage loans. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian assesses the impact on US housing affordability and examines whether the US government will implement damage control measures.

Over the last week, voters have cautiously backed centrist politicians in a series of European elections. The process of political fragmentation has hardly reversed in Europe, but many voters are seeking practical answers to difficult questions at a time when Europe feels besieged in both strategic and economic terms. In this interview, Cedric discusses what this more realistic mood means for European Union integration.

Thursday saw an awkward meeting between Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi and US president Donald Trump in the White House. The east Asian powerhouse wants to stay out of the US-led war in Iran but is massively reliant on gas and oil imported from the Persian Gulf. Udith explores the dilemmas faced by Japan’s policymakers, as they seek to weather an energy shock without sparking an adverse stagflationary economic cycle.

Since the United States-led war against Iran started, US assets have received a safe-haven bid. This reverses a narrative that had taken hold among global investors before the outbreak of hostilities to sell an increasingly unreliable America. The argument had developed that the US was proving a bad partner and pursuing currency debasement policies. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses whether such a “sell America” trade had ever actually started and, looking through this war, what happens next to capital flows.

For Emmanuel Macron, jointly issued European Union bonds is an idea whose time has come. For Friedrich Merz, however, broad mutualization of European public debt remains a step too far. What is interesting is that despite these predictable positions in Paris and Berlin, a growing logic may nonetheless be pushing Europe toward larger-scale EU bond issuance.

China's equity markets have gone on a renewed tear since July—just when its economic data started to soften. The disconnect between macro and markets has only widened since then, with local traders getting more excited and economists more concerned. Our China team assessed the changing landscape.

Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.

The global inflationary boom for the moment remains well set, with both monetary and fiscal settings in most economies remaining loose to very loose. The result is that equity markets continue to trend higher but in an increasingly differentiated pattern. At the same time, the fundamentals for OECD bonds remain terrible and investors are thus engaged in a desperate search for solid stores of value. Our panel reviewed the macro situation and explored viable asset allocation strategies.

Laila Khawaja joins Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about the many facets of the growing US-China technology rivalry. Topics include the question of who is winning the AI race, the politics of Nvidia's chip sales in China, the significance of the deal apparently struck this week to sell TikTok to US owners, and whether Trump and Xi can forge a bigger trade and tech agreement later this fall.

The US economy looks to be at an inflection point with the labor market softening and upward price pressures fading. Unnerved by tariffs early this year, investors seem persuaded that they will not spark a rapid spike in inflation. All the while, the future of the Federal Reserve as an independent institution is in play. Our panel pick through these key topics that are likely to dictate market action in the coming weeks.

So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.

Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.

China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.

For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.