Videos

In late January, Keir Starmer paid his first visit to China as UK prime minister, proclaiming his desire for “a more sophisticated relationship” between London and Beijing. In making his trip, Starmer becomes the latest middle-power head of government to head to China bearing a conciliatory message as relations with the US deteriorate. In this video interview, Tom Miller explores how this attempt at geoeconomic derisking could play out, and examines what it all means for global investors.

After Europe’s benchmark price for natural gas spiked by 40% between the first and third weeks of January, Cedric Gemehl examines the state of the continent’s gas stores, asks where European countries can source additional imports, and considers the longer term questions raised by Europe’s energy insecurity.

Human resources stocks are a niche corner of the US equity market that most investors will rarely focus on. However, Kai Xian thinks they are offering up useful signaling information about a range of macro factors which are currently causing big changes to the US labor market.

France accounts for around a quarter of outstanding sovereign debt in the eurozone and continues to be plagued by political instability. Over the Christmas break, the French government tried and again failed to pass a national budget. The worry is that such uncertainty starts to undermine economic confidence and tip the economy into a recession. Cedric acknowledges these risks but in this video explains why he thinks that France will not upset the European apple cart.

After two national guards were tragically shot by an Afghan national near the White House, the Trump administration has again tightened its immigration policy. The issue is that this stance comes with economic costs and potentially threatens the government’s stated aim of reindustrializing the United States. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian explains how US policymakers will likely manage that balancing act.

In today’s Daily, Louis cited global consumer staple stocks as one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. Will takes a similar view and in this video explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—and thereby breaking a long cycle of underperformance.

With around four months to go until Hungary’s April 2026 general election, the party of long-serving prime minister Victor Orban is trailing in the polls. In this video interview, Gavekal’s European economist Cedric Gemehl surveys the Hungarian political landscape and examines what a potential defeat for the Russophile prime minister could mean.

As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.

After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just. But although the resolution’s approval is an achievement in itself, the latest step does little to resolve the contradictions in Trump’s plan and the obstacles they present to progress. In this interview, Tom Holland assesses the chances of success and weighs the costs of a possible breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire.

Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.

Laila Khawaja joins Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about the many facets of the growing US-China technology rivalry. Topics include the question of who is winning the AI race, the politics of Nvidia's chip sales in China, the significance of the deal apparently struck this week to sell TikTok to US owners, and whether Trump and Xi can forge a bigger trade and tech agreement later this fall.

The US economy looks to be at an inflection point with the labor market softening and upward price pressures fading. Unnerved by tariffs early this year, investors seem persuaded that they will not spark a rapid spike in inflation. All the while, the future of the Federal Reserve as an independent institution is in play. Our panel pick through these key topics that are likely to dictate market action in the coming weeks.

So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.

Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.

China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.

For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.

Investors were rewarded on Monday for their bets that a negotiated settlement will be reached in the United States-led trade war. This follows Britain and the US agreeing an outline trade deal, and an Anglo-Indian trade deal, suggesting that the old liberal trading order is not dead. Our team picked through these developments to assess if the trade war is over before it got going.

There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?

A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.