Videos

With around four months to go until Hungary’s April 2026 general election, the party of long-serving prime minister Victor Orban is trailing in the polls. In this video interview, Gavekal’s European economist Cedric Gemehl surveys the Hungarian political landscape and examines what a potential defeat for the Russophile prime minister could mean.

As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.

After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just. But although the resolution’s approval is an achievement in itself, the latest step does little to resolve the contradictions in Trump’s plan and the obstacles they present to progress. In this interview, Tom Holland assesses the chances of success and weighs the costs of a possible breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire.

Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.

Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.

Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.

Fresh back from a tour of Southeast Asia, Tom Miller offers a study in contrasts between Vietnam and Indonesia. While both have new leaders each a year into his term and each promising economic reform, the two countries’ economic trajectories are starkly different. Tom provides some notes from the road.

France’s latest prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, has survived two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly. But his victory has come at a cost. In this interview, Cedric Gemehl charts the political currents in the run-up to France’s 2027 presidential election and examines why French financial markets have remained relatively calm amid all the political turbulence.

As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out. In this video interview, Will adopts a macro analysis to the question of whether the artificial intelligence boom has broadened into a bubble and, if so, how exposed investors might be to a rupture.

As part of their tariff deals with the US administration of Donald Trump, Asian countries promised to invest vast sums of capital in the US economy, with South Korea pledging US$350bn, while Japan committed to invest US$550bn. Udith discusses whether these investment commitments are realistic, how they might be structured, their potential impact on financial markets and whether failure to deliver could jeopardize the underlying deals on bilateral trade.

Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.

China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.

For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.

Investors were rewarded on Monday for their bets that a negotiated settlement will be reached in the United States-led trade war. This follows Britain and the US agreeing an outline trade deal, and an Anglo-Indian trade deal, suggesting that the old liberal trading order is not dead. Our team picked through these developments to assess if the trade war is over before it got going.

There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?

A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.

If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.

Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.

European policymakers face the biggest strategic upheaval since World War II and a potential trans-Atlantic trade war for good measure. On the plus side for those with a Keynesian bent, the European Union may be spurred to cast off self-imposed fiscal rules which have constrained its performance over the last 15 years. In this webinar, Anatole and Cedric assess the choices that Europe faces and what different outcomes will mean for growth and markets.