Videos

After a spectacular run-up following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, European defense stocks have struggled in 2026. Since January, the broad sector index is down around -10%, with some leading names down much more, as investors have questioned whether European countries will be able to meet their defense spending targets. In this interview, August Gudmundsson examines which countries’ promises are credible and which are not, and looks at how they plan to spend the funds available.

Kevin Warsh has announced five task forces within the Federal Reserve to explore five key factors influencing the way it makes monetary policy. In this video interview, Will discusses whether this amounts to a bureaucratic exercise or if Warsh is preparing the ground for radical change at the US central bank.

As the US, Mexico and Canada jointly host the world’s biggest sporting event, the football world cup, the governments of the three countries will sit down to review the trilateral USMCA trade agreement that came into force in 2020. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the goals each team is aiming for in the review, assesses the likely outcomes of the review process and gauges their potential macro effects—good and bad—for the three economies.

Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.

Global bond investors have plenty of concerns to keep them awake at night, including the likely actions of a new Federal Reserve chair. While most attention has focused on Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials, Will outlines a series of potential changes to the Fed's core operations that could have far-reaching implications.

Just days after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin also touched down in Beijing for his own meeting with the Chinese leader. In this video interview, Tom Miller looks at the objectives of China’s diplomatic push, digs into the energy trade that underpins Russia-China relations, assesses whether the US-China summit was a triumph of style over substance, and examines how evolving strategies over Taiwan affect the balance between Washington and Beijing.

In a bid to curb precious metals purchases and defend the currency, India has more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver. The move follows calls from Prime Minister Narendra Modi for Indians to tighten their belts as the country reels from a soaring energy import bill following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Udith explains how mounting stresses in the currency market could ripple through Indian politics and asset markets.

Chinese and global automakers showed off their latest electric vehicles at this year’s Beijing Auto Show, which wrapped on May 3. There are many impressive new Chinese EVs, but the latest models of some of the global automakers are just as innovative and cheap. Ernan Cui argues that after falling behind their Chinese rivals, some of the global auto brands have found ways to both improve their EV tech and lower prices—though that involves some costly trade-offs.

The United Arab Emirates has asked the United States for a US dollar swap line. The US Treasury Secretary has indicated openness and could approve the request. However, there are strong reasons for the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to steer countries towards the newer emergency liquidity facility, the foreign repo facility established in 2020.

On Tuesday, attention in Washington will focus on the politics surrounding Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Assuming Donald Trump’s nominee is ultimately confirmed, Will considers how he may approach the role, and whether he will, as many expect, end up doing the administration’s bidding on monetary policy.

The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.

A year ago, Alexandre Larrain and Louis-Vincent Gave, sat down to discuss the opportunity in Latin American debt markets. Since then, the region's most important bond markets have rallied and important elections are set to occur in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil. Against this backdrop, is the opportunity set in Latin American debt still attractive? Alexandre and Louis discussed these issues and other questions in this Latam Debt webinar.

How durable is the US’s artificial intelligence-driven boom and associated equity bubble? Will Denyer sought to answer this question and suggested investing strategies. Kai Xian covered three initiatives being pursued by the Trump administration—immigration control, reindustrialization and national security policy—and assessed their investment implications.

In Gavekal’s London conference last week, partners and analysts covered a wide range of topics across five panels: China and emerging markets; the potential end of US exceptionalism; a fireside chat with Charles Gave; trade and technology wars; and investment strategy.

China's equity markets have gone on a renewed tear since July—just when its economic data started to soften. The disconnect between macro and markets has only widened since then, with local traders getting more excited and economists more concerned. Our China team assessed the changing landscape.

Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.

The global inflationary boom for the moment remains well set, with both monetary and fiscal settings in most economies remaining loose to very loose. The result is that equity markets continue to trend higher but in an increasingly differentiated pattern. At the same time, the fundamentals for OECD bonds remain terrible and investors are thus engaged in a desperate search for solid stores of value. Our panel reviewed the macro situation and explored viable asset allocation strategies.

Laila Khawaja joins Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about the many facets of the growing US-China technology rivalry. Topics include the question of who is winning the AI race, the politics of Nvidia's chip sales in China, the significance of the deal apparently struck this week to sell TikTok to US owners, and whether Trump and Xi can forge a bigger trade and tech agreement later this fall.

The US economy looks to be at an inflection point with the labor market softening and upward price pressures fading. Unnerved by tariffs early this year, investors seem persuaded that they will not spark a rapid spike in inflation. All the while, the future of the Federal Reserve as an independent institution is in play. Our panel pick through these key topics that are likely to dictate market action in the coming weeks.

So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.