Videos

Along with other second-tier currencies the British pound fell steeply between early and mid-March as investors dashed to get their hands on US dollar cash. That US dollar liquidity squeeze has now eased, and sterling has found a near-term bottom. But the outlook for the British currency remains clouded amid the UK’s coronavirus lockdown.

The coronavirus pandemic, with its calls for a coordinated European Union-wide fiscal stimulus to counter the inevitable economic ill-effects, would appear to be the ideal opportunity to press forward with the next big step towards European integration by forging a eurozone fiscal union. But things are not so simple.

The breakup of the Opec+ oil cartel and the ensuing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia triggered a -30% fall in the price of oil and spooked financial markets. Moscow has upended the monopolistic pricing regime that has supported the price of oil over the last three years. Tom Holland examines the consequences of the oil market’s regime change.

This week the US federal Reserve cut interest rates to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the European Central Bank promised to follow suit with “appropriate” measures of its own. But eurozone policy rates are already negative, which severely limits the scope for further cuts.

It took a while, but fear of contagion is gripping Wall Street. In the last week, the S&P 500 has fallen -8%, while 10-year US treasury bills have hit a new all-time low. Yet the risk-off move in US asset markets triggered by worries the coronavirus epidemic is turning into a global pandemic is at odds with underlying US fundamentals.

Europe’s financial markets are sending mixed signals. On one hand, fears about the eurozone's exposure to China’s coronavirus-hit economy have pushed the euro to a 21-month low against the US dollar. On the other, euro-denominated stocks are hitting record highs. In this interview Nick examines the mixed message.

For Hong Kong’s economy, already in recession after eight months of anti-government street protests, the Chinese coronavirus outbreak comes as a fresh blow falling on the existing bruise. Inevitably, the effect will be painful. Yet as Vincent explains, the Hong Kong economy has considerable resilience.

No financial market has been hit more heavily by the Wuhan coronavirus than oil, with the price of crude falling by more than -20% from its early-January high on fears the outbreak will crush China’s demand for fuels. In this short video, Tom examines the global implications of the oil price slide, and asks “where next?” for the price of the world’s key commodity.

In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.

A range of cyclical and structural factors have conspired to hit US auto sales in recent years. But with the US labor market remaining in rude health and US monetary policy being loosened, that may be about to change. The impact could be positive for US growth and for risk assets, argues KX in this interview.

Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.

Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.

Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have turned a corner.

We are pleased to present audio from our seminar in New York earlier this week with Charles Gave, Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber

We are pleased to present recordings and slides from our Hong Kong seminar with Louis-Vincent Gave, Will Denyer and Andrew Batson. Louis examines an important recent development: the US dollar has stopped rising. Will diagnoses the health of the US economy in one chart. And Andrew discusses three scenarios for China: doom, boom and muddle-through.

London Seminar—April 2016

What sort of country is China, and what sort of power does it want to be? In this presentation to our seminar in London, Tom Miller explains how to understand the signals China’s leaders have been sending. China wants to pursue great-power status, a process that may alienate its neighbors and will require adjustments from the US.

These are the London Seminar presentation slides from October 2015

We held our main fall seminar on October 27 in London, where Anatole Kaletsky, Francois-Xavier Chauchat, Neil Newman, Tom Miller and Louis-Vincent Gave presented their views on the global economy. Anatole discussed the implications of recent developments in financial markets; Francois examined Europe’s resilience to global headwinds; Neil outlined three major investment themes in Japan; Tom explored China’s regional foreign policy ambitions, and Louis asked whether the world is facing a solvency crisis, or a liquidity squeeze. As ever, their presentations were followed by a lively question and answer session.

Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation