Videos

When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. But investors will be focused at least as much on whether he offers any guidance on the Fed’s September 17th interest rate decision.

There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom, who just came back from a month-long visit. Tom lived in China from 2000 to 2015 and is impressed by the improvements made in recent years—despite several big policy errors—noting that the quality of life is approaching high-income-country status. On the flip side, the “anything goes” spirit that characterized the China of decades past, and encouraged people to take economic risks, has disappeared.

The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. In this week’s interview, Kai Xian examines what this might portend for interest rates and the performance of US equities through the rest of 2025 and into next year.

With €3trn in assets, Europe’s pension funds are investment giants. But they have long been lumbering and risk-averse giants. Now, Cedric Gemehl argues, they are about to discover a new-found appetite for risky assets, and that at the margin this shift will favor European equities over US equities and European government bonds.

In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago. Udith unpacks how these framework arrangements are shaping Asia’s macro environment—and what they could mean for markets, particularly the potential for a coordinated regional interest rate easing cycle.

The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling. In this video interview, Kai Xian reviews the economic drivers for US housing and asks what could lead to a turnaround.

The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.” In this week’s interview, Tom Miller examines whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assesses the group’s progress towards dedollarization.

So far in 2025, the US labor market has been a case of “not too hot, not too cold.” Although trade war uncertainties have muted some hiring plans, the job openings and employment data have given no reasons to expect a marked softening in the economy. KX assesses the how the labor market is likely to develop from here.

European members of Nato just agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump? Cedric argues in this interview that Europe’s moves should be taken seriously as it fits into a new European Union consensus that the group must become self-sufficient, whether in terms of defense, or generating economic growth. He explains what this could mean for EU deepening measures and how it may influence Europe’s investment outlook.

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.

So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.

Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.

China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.

For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.

Investors were rewarded on Monday for their bets that a negotiated settlement will be reached in the United States-led trade war. This follows Britain and the US agreeing an outline trade deal, and an Anglo-Indian trade deal, suggesting that the old liberal trading order is not dead. Our team picked through these developments to assess if the trade war is over before it got going.

There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?

A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.

If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.

Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.