Videos

Over the last 18 months, eurozone bank stocks have outperformed the broad market by a factor of three. But since the US presidential election, they have given back some of those gains. In this video interview, Cedric examines what has driven the bull run in European bank stocks to determine whether the rally has now reached its end, or whether it has further to run.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

European stock markets sold off and the euro fell heavily in the days following Donald Trump’s US election triumph. The declines reflected market participants’ views that a new Trump presidency will be bad news for the heavily export-dependent European economy. Cedric Gemehl goes looking for any silver linings for the old continent, and differentiates potential winners and losers.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt “no”. In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

Enthusiasts for the revitalization of US manufacturing have been heartened by recent news that TSMC’s Arizona chip fabrication plant is delivering higher production yields than the company’s fabs back home in Taiwan. This appears to be good news for the competitiveness of US manufacturing. But digging beneath the surface, Tilly and KX find things are less simple.

Since the Chinese Politburo’s pivot towards stimulus in late September, almost every one of the government’s major economic agencies has held a press conference on the measures it is taking to support growth. In this interview, Christopher assesses the likely impact of initiatives to bail out local governments, recapitalize banks, encourage property sales, support demand and juice up the equity market. And he tells us what to watch out for next.

Fresh back from kicking the policy tires in Washington and Brussels, Gavekal geopolitical analyst Yanmei Xie describes two economies in which policymakers are grappling with how to live and thrive in the same world as an ever more competitive China.

Ahead of next Thursday’s policy meeting of the European Central Bank, the market is betting heavily on an interest rate cut. In this video interview, Cedric argues that the market is probably right in its view but cautions that risks are titled towards hawkish surprises as this economic backdrop does not presage a return to the disinflationary environment seen in the pre-pandemic years.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.

Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.

Just as everyone was prepared to head for the beach, a summer storm of rare proportions has hit global markets, with the AI bubble appearing to burst just as the yen carry trade unwinds. To global macro investors, these developments are closely intertwined. Louis, Charles and Anatole share their perspective on current market moves and their analysis of what lies ahead for markets, for macro and for economic policymaking.