Videos

The release by Chinese company DeepSeek of a new AI large language model comparable with models from US industry leaders like OpenAI or Anthropic has called into question many of the assumptions that have powered the bull market in US tech stocks. Louis looks at how DeepSeek developed its model and considers the effects on the US and Chinese investment environments.

Donald Trump’s decision not to slap first-day tariffs on countries that run that run large trade surpluses with the US does not mean the new president has cooled on the idea. Moreover, his failure to issue any executive orders favoring the crypto-currency business, which greatly disappointed enthusiasts, does not mean the new administration won’t be sympathetic in its regulation of crypto markets.

International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.

Michael Barr is stepping down from his role as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision earlier than expected. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses what this move signifies about Fed independence in the upcoming Trump administration and what is likely to be the shape of US regulation.

Over the last 18 months, eurozone bank stocks have outperformed the broad market by a factor of three. But since the US presidential election, they have given back some of those gains. In this video interview, Cedric examines what has driven the bull run in European bank stocks to determine whether the rally has now reached its end, or whether it has further to run.

After their spectacular run-up in late September and early October, Chinese equities have given back a big chunk of their gains. While onshore trading volumes remain elevated and domestic sentiment remains bullish on hopes of more government support, offshore investors in particular are nervous about the impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods. In this video interview, Thomas weighs the opposing forces that will drive China’s equity markets in 2025.

Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.

Ukrainians are war weary, the incoming American administration wants an end to hostilities and Russia continues to pay a huge price for its gains in terms of men and materiel. The question says Yanmei is whether a deal can be found over territory, security guarantees and the type of government that exists in Kyiv. In this video interview, she says some kind of arrangement will be found in the near term but she is not optimistic that this will constitute a lasting peace.

European stock markets sold off and the euro fell heavily in the days following Donald Trump’s US election triumph. The declines reflected market participants’ views that a new Trump presidency will be bad news for the heavily export-dependent European economy. Cedric Gemehl goes looking for any silver linings for the old continent, and differentiates potential winners and losers.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt “no”. In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.

Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January threatens to stir a trade war and potential upheaval in currency and capital markets. Our analysts assessed the impact from the perspective of economies in the US, Europe, China and major emerging markets.

As the dust begins to settle following Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, Gavekal Research partners Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Louis-Vincent Gave assessed what the outcome implies for US growth and inflation, for global geopolitical risk and trade relations, and for financial markets around the world.

Markets are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the US presidential race and Republicans may achieve a sweep of Congress. Yet with the key “swing states” still effectively in a dead heat between Trump and Kamala Harris, and well within the polling margin of error, the race remains highly competitive. Our panel assessed the underpinnings of the “Trump trade” but also explored macro and market scenarios in the event of Harris securing the White House.

A range of recent developments suggests that the world economy is moving into a period of higher nominal growth and persistent price pressures. China looks to be embracing a more concerted fiscal stimulus and, given the platforms of both presidential candidates, the United States is likely to stay in expansionary mode. Our panel assessed this situation and suggested investing strategies.

Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at supporting the beaten-down domestic property and equity markets. This support package won’t miraculously revive China’s depressed consumer confidence overnight, but it does mean that China is set to adopt a reflationary policy stance. Our panel discussed what this shift means for growth, currencies, financial assets and commodities.

At our latest conference in London, Gavekal’s senior partners and analysts discussed the most relevant themes for investors in a series of panels and fireside chats.

The summer’s hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.