Videos

Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In this video interview, Tom looks at the game-theory calculus that prompted Opec+ to increase production into a soft market, and at what will drive the oil price over the remainder of 2025.

In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.

Argentina recently loosened capital controls and floated its currency in a bid to rejoin global capital markets. Under Javier Milei, the country has been engaged in a radical free market experiment for the last 16 months, as it seeks to conquer inflation and stabilize the economy. Tom recently returned from a research trip to Argentina, and in this interview discusses how the Milei project is going and whether it is replicable elsewhere in Latin America.

It seems clear that last week’s bond market sell-off was the trigger for the Trump administration backing off its maximalist stance on tariffs. But what was the key factor driving that sell-off? In this interview, Will explores whether it was triggered by a change in the US growth outlook, inflation fears, a looming bond supply shock or capital flight from the US.

As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China’s domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.

The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.

As other formerly hot asset classes have rolled over, gold has continued to advance through February and March, setting a new record high above US$3,050/oz. In this video, Gavekal founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave examines the fundamental drivers of gold’s rally, considers the metal’s valuation, and asks whether the run-up can continue.

It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.

The last time that the US and China got embroiled in a trade war, Chinese equities badly underperformed. Since January, however, Chinese equities have performed strongly, while their US counterparts have entered into correction territory. In this video interview, Thomas explains the cyclical and structural factors behind this trend.

Incredulity and outrage have greeted Donald Trump’s mooted Gaza redevelopment plan across the Arab world. Just back from a research trip to Egypt, Gavekal senior analyst Tom Miller discusses the Arab states’ rival proposals for Gaza, touches on how US policy has affected America’s standing in the region, and looks at how the developments of the last few years have affected Egypt’s own economic prospects.

There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?

A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.

If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.

Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.

European policymakers face the biggest strategic upheaval since World War II and a potential trans-Atlantic trade war for good measure. On the plus side for those with a Keynesian bent, the European Union may be spurred to cast off self-imposed fiscal rules which have constrained its performance over the last 15 years. In this webinar, Anatole and Cedric assess the choices that Europe faces and what different outcomes will mean for growth and markets.

Technological optimism seems to be doing what macroeconomic policy could not: change foreign investors’ minds about China. At the same time the nascent rebound in the property market is at risk of stalling out amid a policy vacuum. And signals of greater comity between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have not prevented the escalation of US tariffs on China. In this webinar, our China team assesses the conflicting signals for the outlook for 2025.

DeepSeek stunned the world with the release of two new AI models with performance comparable to models from the US market leaders, but which the Chinese company developed at a fraction of the cost and with less powerful chips. Tilly Zhang, Gavekal’s technology analyst, founding partner Louis-Vincent Gave and US economist Will Denyer assessed the extent of DeepSeek’s achievement and examined what it means for China’s AI development, US export controls, and the future of the US tech stock bull market.

All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.

Crypto-currencies had a stellar 2024, with a particularly strong run after Donald Trump’s win in the November election. The president-elect has appointed crypto enthusiasts to his cabinet and mused on adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Our panel looked at both structural factors like the prospect of mass crypto adoption and more pressing cyclical issues such as how the vertiginously positioned asset class handles a likely more challenging liquidity environment in 2025.

With the fall of French prime minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old government, reasons are mounting to be grumpy about Europe. Our panel considers all the relevant factors, yet also ask whether the gloom is overdone given that almost no one is asking what happens if things go right, or prove to be not as bad as expected.