Videos

Interviews

 
Video: A Behemoth Turns

Video: A Behemoth Turns

31 Jul 2025
Cedric Gemehl
With €3trn in assets, Europe’s pension funds are investment giants. But they have long been lumbering and risk-averse giants. Now, Cedric Gemehl argues, they are about to discover a new-found appetite for risky assets, and that at the margin this shift will favor European equities over US equities and European government bonds.
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Video: The Asian Trade  Landscape Emerges

Video: The Asian Trade Landscape Emerges

24 Jul 2025
Udith Sikand
In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago. Udith unpacks how these framework arrangements are shaping Asia’s macro environment—and what they could mean for markets, particularly the potential for a coordinated regional interest rate easing cycle.
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Video: US Housing Under The Gun

Video: US Housing Under The Gun

17 Jul 2025
Tan Kai Xian
The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling. In this video interview, Kai Xian reviews the economic drivers for US housing and asks what could lead to a turnaround.
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Video: Brics Versus Trump

Video: Brics Versus Trump

9 Jul 2025
Tom Miller
The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.” In this week’s interview, Tom Miller examines whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assesses the group’s progress towards dedollarization.
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Video: Where Is The US Jobs Market Going?

Video: Where Is The US Jobs Market Going?

2 Jul 2025
Tan Kai Xian
So far in 2025, the US labor market has been a case of “not too hot, not too cold.” Although trade war uncertainties have muted some hiring plans, the job openings and employment data have given no reasons to expect a marked softening in the economy. KX assesses the how the labor market is likely to develop from here.
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Video: Nato And European Integration

Video: Nato And European Integration

26 Jun 2025
Cedric Gemehl
European members of Nato just agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump? Cedric argues in this interview that Europe’s moves should be taken seriously as it fits into a new European Union consensus that the group must become self-sufficient, whether in terms of defense, or generating economic growth. He explains what this could mean for EU deepening measures and how it may influence Europe’s investment outlook.
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Video: The US Immigration Flip-Flop

Video: The US Immigration Flip-Flop

19 Jun 2025
Tan Kai Xian
US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. In this interview, Kai Xian updates his view on whether or not the US is softening its immigration stance.
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Video: Waymo Or Harvard?

Video: Waymo Or Harvard?

12 Jun 2025
Will Denyer
Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.
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Video: Indian Resilience In A Trade War

Video: Indian Resilience In A Trade War

5 Jun 2025
Udith Sikand
Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.
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Video: Europe's Construction Recovery

Video: Europe's Construction Recovery

30 May 2025
August Gudmundsson
Europe’s construction sector has struggled in recent years due to cyclical weakness and the high cost of money stemming from the post-pandemic inflation outbreak. However, as August argues in this video, the green shoots of recovery are already being seen in public sector projects, and this could be spreading to private sector building activity.
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Events

Webinar: Gimcrack Goldilocks Or The Real Thing?

Webinar: Gimcrack Goldilocks Or The Real Thing?

11 Jul 2025
Arthur Kroeber, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.
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Webinar: Pricing Another Middle Eastern War

Webinar: Pricing Another Middle Eastern War

26 Jun 2025
Tom Holland, Udith Sikand, Cedric Gemehl
Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.
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Webinar: Will Chinese Outperformance Continue?

Webinar: Will Chinese Outperformance Continue?

23 Jun 2025
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Russell Napier
The meeting focused on China's economic performance, global influence and potential future scenarios. The panelists debated the potential of the renminbi as a reserve currency, China's economic model and capital controls, and the implications of China's debt situation for global markets.
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Webinar: China's Economic Strategy Amid Trade Conflict

Webinar: China's Economic Strategy Amid Trade Conflict

13 Jun 2025
Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson
China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.
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Webinar: Tomorrow's Outperformance

Webinar: Tomorrow's Outperformance

30 May 2025
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer
For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.
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Webinar: Escalate To Deescalate?

Webinar: Escalate To Deescalate?

16 May 2025
Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
Investors were rewarded on Monday for their bets that a negotiated settlement will be reached in the United States-led trade war. This follows Britain and the US agreeing an outline trade deal, and an Anglo-Indian trade deal, suggesting that the old liberal trading order is not dead. Our team picked through these developments to assess if the trade war is over before it got going.
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Webinar: Investing After US Exceptionalism

Webinar: Investing After US Exceptionalism

1 May 2025
Will Denyer, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl, Tan Kai Xian
There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?
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Webinar: Understanding The US-China Trade War

Webinar: Understanding The US-China Trade War

18 Apr 2025
Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley
A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.
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Webinar: After Tariff 'Liberation Day'

Webinar: After Tariff 'Liberation Day'

3 Apr 2025
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.
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Webinar: Good But Not Great In India

Webinar: Good But Not Great In India

19 Mar 2025
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.
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