Videos

Since the United States-led war against Iran started, US assets have received a safe-haven bid. This reverses a narrative that had taken hold among global investors before the outbreak of hostilities to sell an increasingly unreliable America. The argument had developed that the US was proving a bad partner and pursuing currency debasement policies. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses whether such a “sell America” trade had ever actually started and, looking through this war, what happens next to capital flows.

For Emmanuel Macron, jointly issued European Union bonds is an idea whose time has come. For Friedrich Merz, however, broad mutualization of European public debt remains a step too far. What is interesting is that despite these predictable positions in Paris and Berlin, a growing logic may nonetheless be pushing Europe toward larger-scale EU bond issuance.

Xi Jinping wants the renminbi to become a global reserve currency. That’s going to be tough as long as China operates capital controls, and there are few offshore renminbi assets for reserve managers to buy. One suggested solution is to make all Hong Kong listed equities tradable in renminbi. In this interview, Louis-Vincent Gave looks at how this proposal could work, and what it would mean for investors in Hong Kong’s financial markets.

In five years, China has greatly reduced its reliance on property and supporting industries as a driver of economic activity. While the building binge continues to cast a pall over the wider economy, the Chinese stock market has the “old economy” property sector in the rear-view mirror and is fully pricing in “new economy” industries built around advanced manufacturing and the energy transition.

The long rallies in gold and crypto from 2023 to 2025 were to a large extent driven by the US debasement trade. With recent market moves suggesting that these trends may now have run their course, Will Denyer digs into the underlying dynamics to examine whether the debasement trade is really over, and if so what this means for broader asset markets.

US President Donald Trump wants to make US housing more affordable and so assuage voter discontent ahead of November’s midterm elections. In this video interview, Kai Xian assesses measures that the administration has already tried or mooted, as well as others that could be on the docket. He considers what these might mean for housing activity and for the homebuilding industry.

In late January, Keir Starmer paid his first visit to China as UK prime minister, proclaiming his desire for “a more sophisticated relationship” between London and Beijing. In making his trip, Starmer becomes the latest middle-power head of government to head to China bearing a conciliatory message as relations with the US deteriorate. In this video interview, Tom Miller explores how this attempt at geoeconomic derisking could play out, and examines what it all means for global investors.

After Europe’s benchmark price for natural gas spiked by 40% between the first and third weeks of January, Cedric Gemehl examines the state of the continent’s gas stores, asks where European countries can source additional imports, and considers the longer term questions raised by Europe’s energy insecurity.

Human resources stocks are a niche corner of the US equity market that most investors will rarely focus on. However, Kai Xian thinks they are offering up useful signaling information about a range of macro factors which are currently causing big changes to the US labor market.

France accounts for around a quarter of outstanding sovereign debt in the eurozone and continues to be plagued by political instability. Over the Christmas break, the French government tried and again failed to pass a national budget. The worry is that such uncertainty starts to undermine economic confidence and tip the economy into a recession. Cedric acknowledges these risks but in this video explains why he thinks that France will not upset the European apple cart.

Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.

At the beginning of March, China’s government will announce its economic agenda and budget for 2026, as well as its next five-year plan. The leadership is sounding confident, with some reason, but there are many questions on policy. Exports are booming and industrial upgrading is proceeding, but the anti-involution campaign is scrambling incentives. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is cautious, even though growth has been slowing. Officials are talking up their plans to boost consumption, but household sentiment is still weak. In this webinar, our China team assess these and other issues, and explain what to expect from China macro and markets in 2026.

India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.

For years, the extreme undervaluation of the Chinese currency has been the biggest single anomaly in global financial markets. In recent weeks, however, the renminbi has begun to appreciate at an accelerating pace, with the Chinese authorities setting their daily fixing at successively stronger rates. By the standards of other currencies, the moves so far are small. But the implications are far-reaching, and potentially even epochal. In this webinar Louis-Vincent Gave unpacks the importance of the renminbi’s exchange rate for global investors.

The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.

To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.

Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.

The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.

A year ago, Alexandre Larrain and Louis-Vincent Gave, sat down to discuss the opportunity in Latin American debt markets. Since then, the region's most important bond markets have rallied and important elections are set to occur in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil. Against this backdrop, is the opportunity set in Latin American debt still attractive? Alexandre and Louis discussed these issues and other questions in this Latam Debt webinar.

How durable is the US’s artificial intelligence-driven boom and associated equity bubble? Will Denyer sought to answer this question and suggested investing strategies. Kai Xian covered three initiatives being pursued by the Trump administration—immigration control, reindustrialization and national security policy—and assessed their investment implications.