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Video: The Anatomy Of A Bond Sell-Off
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 14 Apr 2025 Video
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It seems clear that last week’s bond market sell-off was the trigger for the Trump administration backing off its maximalist stance on tariffs. But what was the key factor driving that sell-off? In this interview, Will explores whether it was triggered by a change in the US growth outlook, inflation fears, a looming bond supply shock or capital flight from the US.
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What I Know About Globalization’s Demise
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 14 Apr 2025
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Charles is convinced that the latest era of globalization is over and reckons that investors need a simple framework in order to navigate the change. In this piece, he draws some broad conclusions about what a multipolar economic world means for the US, Europe, and Asia.
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The Shape Of The Supply-Chain Shock
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Research | 14 Apr 2025
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Now that the US and China have put embargo-level tariffs on each other’s goods, the global supply chains for both countries are heading for dramatic shocks. Companies in both countries will find ways to evade and circumvent the tariffs, but higher costs and some disruption will be unavoidable. Andrew parses the data and assesses which sectors will be most vulnerable.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: The Morning After
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 11 Apr 2025
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The most extreme version of Donald Trump’s trade war is on pause, perhaps for good, but what is left remains quite damaging, contends Arthur. The end result will be an enduring rupture in the US-China trade relationship that may not end up favoring the US. Away from the tariff chaos, Tom asks if the next shock that investors may have to digest will be US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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Bessent’s Problem
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 11 Apr 2025
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent needs to sell somewhere in the region of US$2trn in new debt this year, roll over some US$8trn in maturing treasury notes and bonds, and pay US$500bn in interest. To do this, Bessent needs to muster every buyer he can get. Yet patchy attendance at recent auctions, the 60bp rise in 10-year yields over the last week and the slide in the dollar signal that investors have become a lot more reluctant to hold US government debt.
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The World’s Biggest Black Market
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 11 Apr 2025
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US President Donald Trump has, for the moment, settled on a tariff strategy that maximally targets China. In this piece, Thomas argues that the massive gap between tariffs on China and everyone else creates powerful incentives for tariff avoidance, and a global set of options for circumvention.
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Video: The Trade War And China’s Home Front
Christopher Beddor / Gavekal Research | 10 Apr 2025 Video
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As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China’s domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.
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Is The Dust Settling?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 10 Apr 2025
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Eight days after “liberation day,” seven days into an equity meltdown and three days into what risked becoming a bond crash, markets were given the opportunity to breathe a deep, deep sigh of relief Wednesday when Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China. As the dust begins to settle, Louis offers his main takeaways.
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The Rapidly Shifting Narrative Around Tariffs
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 9 Apr 2025
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Having been pummeled on all fronts, investors are desperate to know when, and under what conditions, the hits will stop. That, in part, depends on what narrative you follow in explaining the current sell-off. Louis explores a number of options in this piece in a bid to better understand the basis for the market eventually finding a bottom.
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What Could Save US Equities?
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 9 Apr 2025
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In just four trading sessions, President Donald Trump’s tariff broadside against all of America’s trading partners has caused US equities to slump into bear market territory. The global growth outlook was further upended by the slapping of another 50% tariff on China, and investors are looking for salvation via countervailing policy action. In this report, Will and KX explain what possibilities exist.
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