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The Real US Growth Question
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 25 Jul 2025
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Donald Trump and his Treasury secretary Scott Bessent hope their “three-legged” economic agenda of tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation can boost US growth while reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio and keeping inflation low. But Tan Kai Xian argues that these aims are incompatible. Given the deficits implied by the One Big Beautiful Bill, at any reasonable projections of US growth, either debt will rise relative to nominal GDP, or inflation must accelerate.
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Whatever Happened To Energy Dominance?
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 25 Jul 2025
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Six months into Donald Trump’s second term, the administration’s plans for US energy dominance are not going as intended as US consumers face higher prices for gasoline, natural gas and electricity. This is not especially surprising. Moreover, the trajectory of energy policy under the second Trump administration will spell trouble in years to come for the competitive position of the US economy.
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Huawei’s Triumph
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 24 Jul 2025
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Huawei regains the top spot in smartphone sales. The third IC fund gets ready for action. Pitfalls of semiconductor M&A.
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Video: The Asian Trade Landscape Emerges
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 24 Jul 2025 Video
In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago. Udith unpacks how these framework arrangements are shaping Asia’s macro environment—and what they could mean for markets, particularly the potential for a coordinated regional interest rate easing cycle.
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TrackCoin: Managing Emotions In Crypto’s Wild West
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 24 Jul 2025
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At the end of 2022, Gavekal-IS launched a mobile app designed to help cryptocurrency investors navigate the emotional rollercoaster of this volatile asset class. In this report, Didier revisits the tool’s underlying logic and examines what its results reveal about speculative behavior.
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What Could Restart Dollar Strength?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 24 Jul 2025
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In April, Louis argued that the real driver of dollar weakness was a growing perception among foreign investors that the US had turned predatory toward them. In recent “risk-off” episodes, the US dollar fell instead of rising against most currencies. It seems the US dollar is no longer a true “risk-off” currency. Louis examines what could help it it reclaim that role.
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Macro Update: New Deal, Same Problems
Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 24 Jul 2025
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China’s growth will hold up better than many expected in 2025. But domestic demand is weak, with property a renewed drag, and deflation remains a threat. Despite more stimulus, China still isn’t generating strong nominal growth. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics Team assess the state of the economy and outlook for policy and markets.
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Japan’s Flaky Trade Deal
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 23 Jul 2025
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The US-Japan trade deal announced late Tuesday in Washington triggered a powerful rally in Japanese automaker stocks. But the anomalies and distortions implied by the limited details of the deal so far available mean the provisions of this “framework agreement” are unlikely to survive in their current form, warns Udith Sikand.
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Europe’s Use-It-Or-Lose-It Moment
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 23 Jul 2025
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Investor attention is rightly focused on whether a more fiscally expansive eurozone can drive domestic growth in a far tougher trading environment with key partners like China and the United States. In fact, such a future may already be here as capital spending from the European Union’s “Hamiltonian moment” in 2020 shows up in fixed asset investment growth.
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Value In A Sea Of Risk
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 22 Jul 2025
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A cynic, wrote Oscar Wilde in Lady Windermere’s Fan, is someone who “knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.” A great quip, but in fairness, figuring out value is far harder than figuring out price. Undaunted by the challenge, Louis makes an attempt to assess the value of major asset classes today.
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