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Will AI Supercharge The China Shock?
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 9 Mar 2026
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Most coverage of US-China AI competition assumes that the two countries are in the same race to build the best frontier AI model. But China is running a different race—to deploy artificial intelligence through its massive industrial system. The chances are that smart automation will entrench China’s dominance of global manufacturing, even if no Chinese AI model ever matches the top model from the US.
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Hedging In A Time Of War
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 9 Mar 2026
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War is punishing for portfolios, especially when it disrupts the flow of oil and gas. War can also affect markets through higher government borrowing, rising inflation, differing monetary policy responses and changes in the economic outlook of affected regions. The effect of these forces may explain why some hedges and safe havens have underperformed during the first week of the US-led war against Iran, says Will.
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On Price Controls And Export Restrictions
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 9 Mar 2026
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In the eyes of the voting public and of US allies, Donald Trump would very much carry the blame for the surging oil price. And with eight months to go before the midterm elections, this would leave the White House in a political predicament. If oil prices stay above US$100/bbl, the pressure on Trump to “do something” about rising prices will become intense, with the troubling prospect of price controls and export restrictions on the horizon.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: After The War
Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the war in the Middle East escalates, the immediate prospects for peace look poor. We attempt to peer through the fog of war to determine who will benefit when it does eventually end. If the United States achieves its aims, Tom Holland envisages a boom for Iran and the Gulf. If it does not, he predicts the whole region will decline. Tom Miller asks why China has provided no meaningful support to Iran.
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Iran And The Fog Of War
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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The overall measured response of markets to the war in Iran points to investors taking a view that we are experiencing short-term disruption that should soon pass. In this piece, Louis interrogates that proposition from the perspective of the US, Israel, and Iran.
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Picking Up Loans On The Cheap
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the US-led war in Iran consumes international investor attention, private credit concerns continue to bubble up within the US itself. Practitioners such as Blue Owl and Blackstone have seen their share prices crater as investors question the quality of non-bank, privately negotiated lending. The sell-off raises four questions.
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China Enriches Export Control Toolkit
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 5 Mar 2026
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Beijing debuts export control “watch list”; Chinese firms accelerate auto chip self-sufficiency; National IC Fund III invests in humanoids; implications of the US strike on Iran.
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Policy Challenges Around The World
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 Mar 2026
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In recent years, voters in many countries have handed electoral mandates to so-called “populist” politicians who, a generation ago, would not have been taken seriously. Yet equity markets have generally held up well and currency volatility has remained muted. So are markets right to stay calm in the face of mounting social, economic and political strains, asks Louis, or are investors simply complacent? In this report, he reviews the key challenges facing the world’s largest economies.
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Dialing Back Fiscal Stimulus
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 Mar 2026
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Premier Li Qiang announced a pivot in his annual government work report on Thursday: officials will target lower economic growth in 2026, and the fiscal policy stance will be meaningfully more conservative. Wei argues that it means policymakers will probably not deliver much additional support to consumers this year, and they continue to implicitly count on exports to reach the growth target.
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Injurious Exposure
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 5 Mar 2026
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Reassured by the stabilization of European and US markets, Asian equities rallied Thursday following the previous day’s bruising falls. The notable laggard was India, whose equity market already looked expensive compared to markets elsewhere in Asia. Now, this latest round of underperformance reflects India’s disproportionately high vulnerability to a protracted crisis in the Middle East.
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