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Japan Warms To Rate Hikes
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 15 Dec 2025
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When Sanae Takaichi’s government approved a JPY21.3trn stimulus package on November 21, the swaps market was pricing in a 16% chance of an interest rate hike. Since then, however, a string of hawkish comments by both central bank and administration officials has seen market pricing of a rate hike rise to a near-certain 90% probability. There are good reasons for this change.
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A National Security Style Shift
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 12 Dec 2025
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President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy, released last week, caused some shivers with its aggressive language about Europe and its suggestion that strategic competition with China is being downgraded to a merely economic one. But since Trump is much better at proclamation than execution, it is not a reliable guide to what Trump will actually do in his foreign policy—which is transactional, opportunistic and fluid.
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Looking Forward To A More Ordinary Year
Wei He, Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 12 Dec 2025
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Reflecting on 2025 at the annual Central Economic Work Conference this week, China’s leadership concluded that “this year was very much not an ordinary year.” Wei and Andrew argue that success in managing the relationship with the US seems to have given the leadership confidence in the outlook for a more ordinary year ahead. The latest economic-policy rhetoric, while continuing a broadly supportive stance, points to less incremental stimulus in 2026.
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What The End Of The H200 Ban Means
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 12 Dec 2025
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Trump ends the ban on H200 chips; Beijing wants more AI toys; Japan denies photoresist curb
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Gold And War
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 11 Dec 2025
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Some of the world’s first gold coins were minted 2,500-odd years ago in modern-day Turkey to pay the sovereign’s foreign mercenaries as he sought to counter the rising Persian Empire. Didier argues that gold’s origin story is inseparable from military spending—and that this linkage may still hold true today.
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QE For Christmas
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 11 Dec 2025
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The Federal Reserve is now easing with both hands on the pump. It has delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut and shifted decisively toward balance sheet expansion, only 10 days after closing the quantitative tightening program which began in June 2022. In effect, the Fed handed investors a measured dose of quantitative easing for Christmas, signaling a policy mix that is now unmistakably tilted toward accommodation.
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Manufacturing Investment Is Rationalizing
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 11 Dec 2025
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China’s manufacturing sector has expanded massively in scale and scope, challenging competitors around the world in nearly every industry. But Thomas argues that the headlong expansion in manufacturing capacity will not continue indefinitely. Not only are policymakers showing some willingness to adjust industrial policy, but manufacturing companies themselves have already started rationalizing their investment plans.
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Germany’s Energy-Intensive Industries Power On
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 11 Dec 2025
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Germany’s energy-intensive industries are finally seeing the pressures that drove their post-2022 slump begin to ease. After three years of elevated electricity costs and weak eurozone demand, both constraints are starting to lift, say August and Cedric. Power prices remain high, but policy relief is on the horizon, and the regional business cycle is turning up after an extended downturn.
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Video: What Could Give Consumer Staples A Lift
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 10 Dec 2025 Video
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In today’s Daily, Louis cited global consumer staple stocks as one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. Will takes a similar view and in this video explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—and thereby breaking a long cycle of underperformance.
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The Vanke Policy Whiplash
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 10 Dec 2025
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After the Shenzhen government abruptly reversed course on its partial bailout of China Vanke, the troubled developer’s bondholders convened on Wednesday to discuss its request for a repayment delay. Xiaoxi argues that the government’s approach to the company has been riddled with reversals because officials are struggling to balance conflicting policy goals for the property sector—and there may be more to come.
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