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A Deteriorating US Current Account Deficit
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2025
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In the first quarter of 2025, the US current account deficit hit 6% of US GDP. Today, with the US government no longer keen on cutting its spending, US demand is running hot. And if US courts strike down tariffs it could get hotter. This suggests the current account deficit could grow even further, pumping ever more US dollars abroad, just as demand for dollars appears to be moderating. Louis examines the consequences.
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Abduction
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 4 Sep 2025
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The American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce argued that abduction—not deduction or induction—represents the primary mode of human reasoning. For Didier, abduction lies behind scientific discovery, as well as most economic, financial and political analysis. In this piece he applies this insight to current dilemmas for portfolio managers.
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A Demand Spark For European Industry
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2025
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Sometimes marginal changes tell the most compelling story. Consider the eurozone’s industrial sector, which in August saw the manufacturing PMI tick above the 50 no-change mark for the first time since June 2022, thus ending a 37-month period of continuous contraction. Should we trust the PMI signal and conclude that European manufacturing is finally set for a period of expansion? Cedric and August say it is a tricky judgment, but most likely, yes.
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Video: Eurasian Partnerships On Parade
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 3 Sep 2025 Video
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Wednesday’s grand military parade through Beijing and the earlier Tianjin summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted by Xi Jinping and attended by both Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin, have emphasized the growth of economic partnerships on the Eurasian landmass in defiance of the established US-led international order. In this video interview, Tom Miller assesses the depth of India’s diplomatic reengagement with China, and considers the economic implications of the strengthening Eurasian relations.
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Axis Of Energy
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 3 Sep 2025
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the world has shifted to a two-tier energy market where countries willing to buy Russian energy in defiance of Western sanctions benefit from sizable discounts to global price benchmarks. The recently agreed Power of Siberia 2 deal demonstrates how this two-tier market is set to stay for the long haul, conferring significant economic advantages on buyers of Russian oil and gas, in what might be termed a new “axis of energy.”
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The Renminbi’s Recent Run
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Sep 2025
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Since May’s trade truce with the US, China’s central bank has been gradually guiding the currency higher against the dollar. But the pace picked up in the final days of August, when the central bank moved the fixing rate by as much as it had in the previous two months. Wei examines whether this is the start of a new trend of faster renminbi appreciation.
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Denmark After The Diet Boom
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 2 Sep 2025
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Nordic economies have generally come off the boil during the recent phase of high inflation and global trade tensions. The exception has been Denmark, which got a miracle injection over from the success of Novo Nordisk. Yet as the effect of this dieting boom has begun to fade, that boost has become a drag. The worry, says August, is that Denmark ends up like Finland after Nokia’s fall from grace almost two decades ago.
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US Businesses Will Pay
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 2 Sep 2025
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In the spring, when the US government was pushing to both cut taxes and lower long-dated bond yields, Louis noted the emergence of a “foreigners will pay” approach. It seems the same logic now applies to US companies. While there are plenty of reasons to be positive on US stocks and corporate debt, Kai Xian argues this trend presents several considerable risks.
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Can China Accept De-Industrialization?
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 2 Sep 2025
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A fact about China that people often find surprising is that its manufacturing share of GDP is declining. Is this a problem, or just the natural evolution of the economy? Andrew examines whether China’s policymakers will continue to try to hold back the seemingly inevitable trend of de-industrialization with aggressive subsidies—or become quietly more accepting of this reality.
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The End Of European Disinflation
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 1 Sep 2025
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European disinflation has run its course. Today, the market does not, on balance, expect another rate cut until March 2026. And that may be too aggressive. As the worst fears about the growth-damaging potential of tariffs fade, and attention turns to the reflationary impact of fiscal and monetary easing, investors may soon begin to wonder whether the ECB’s next move could be up, not down
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