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The Implications Of Israel’s Action
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 13 Jun 2025
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Any remaining hopes for sub-US$60/bbl oil prices this year must now be buried. Israel’s attacks early Friday against Iran, directed against nuclear facilities, missile sites and senior personnel, are a marked departure from earlier exchanges between the two Middle Eastern powers. For businesses and investors, the immediate consequence will be a higher geopolitical risk premium in financial markets, and especially in energy markets.
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Webinar: China's Economic Strategy Amid Trade Conflict
Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson / Gavekal Research | 13 Jun 2025 Video
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China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.
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Chokepoints And Workarounds
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 12 Jun 2025
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Ren Zhengfei explains Huawei’s tech breakthroughs. US-China framework offers no clarity on tech grand bargains. And Oppo is rumored to revive in-house chip development.
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Video: Waymo Or Harvard?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 12 Jun 2025 Video
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Gavekal US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. However, with Elon Musk’s Tesla planning to launch its first robo-taxi service even as relations between Musk and Donald Trump have taken a sharp turn for the worse, there is also the potential for a lot of things to go wrong for the autonomous vehicle revolution. In this video, Will examines the risks, and explains why they matter at the macro level.
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A Meeting Of Minds: Wicksell And Gave
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 12 Jun 2025
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You would have to be seriously distracted to work alongside Charles Gave and not get drawn into two cornerstones of his economic thinking: the Four Quadrants, which he first introduced in 1978, and the interest rate theory of Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. Since Didier is in such a situation, he reviews these core features of the Gavekal analytical framework in the context of the current growth situation and interest rate settings.
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After London, What’s The Deal Space?
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 12 Jun 2025
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The latest trade negotiations drama in London probably leaves us back where we were a month ago—though the precise terms of the agreement are not yet public. China’s hardball tactics have exposed some vulnerabilities among the US and its allies and marginally increased the chance that Washington will give some ground. But the deal space remains narrow.
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Asia’s Plan To Keep America Sweet
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 11 Jun 2025
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On Tuesday, the US and China agreed to extend their trade war truce pending a check in with both sides’ leadership. In the meantime, other Asian nations are attempting to tread a path that placates Donald Trump without picking sides in this great power standoff. It means that as the July 9 deadline approaches for the potential imposition of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs”, Asian economies are adopting survival strategies. In this piece, Tom and Udith explore how those are breaking down across a heterogeneous region.
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Pity The Central Bankers
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 11 Jun 2025
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In Monday’s Daily Louis examined what might happen to the trillions of US dollars currently sloshing around the global financial system with no clear buyers in sight. Today, Charles spares a thought for the highly paid individuals in charge of our nations' savings who over the years have accumulated vast US dollar assets.
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A Shadow Fed Chair?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 10 Jun 2025
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Donald Trump’s decision on the next boss of the Federal Reserve will be “coming out very soon”, the US president told reporters over the weekend—adding that a good chair would cut interest rates. The possibility that Trump could name his choice 11 months before the new Fed chair is due to take up the role matters a lot, given the president’s repeated criticisms of the incumbent, Jerome Powell.
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When Deposit Rates Decline
Xiaoxi Zhang, Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 10 Jun 2025
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China’s central bank has been cutting policy interest rates for four years now—but most of those rate cuts have not yet been reflected in the returns households earn on their savings. Xiaoxi and Wei argue that the slow-moving repricing of deposits will gather pace in 2025 and shift households’ financial decisions at the margin, but may not lead to a big change in their risk appetite.
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