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Found 13351 results
Today’s Nine Important Market Trends
Louis-Vincent Gave
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Gavekal Research
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16 Feb 2026
Investor Paul Tudor Jones once quipped that markets trend only 15% of the time and that most of the time they trade sideways. This is an important reminder that what may look like a trend may in fact be little more than confirmation bias, says Louis. Still, with that caveat in mind, in this piece he reviews the market’s recent moves and assesses whether they represent durable trends, or merely short-term readjustments within a broader sideways range.
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Why Markets Yawn As Britain Moves Left
Anatole Kaletsky
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Gavekal Research
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16 Feb 2026
Last Monday’s Jeffrey-Epstein-related political crisis in Britain came within an hour of forcing the resignation of Keir Starmer. Yet investors responded to these political shenanigans with a yawn. And they were right to do so, despite the fact that a big shift to the left in Britain’s political complexion is now inevitable.
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The Fed’s Balance Sheet And The Treasury’s Gold
Will Denyer
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Gavekal Research
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13 Feb 2026
Kevin Warsh has repeatedly argued that the Federal Reserve’s assets should be “reduced in size and scope” to limit its influence on capital allocation, wealth distribution and fiscal policy. The question, Will asks, is how this might be done without the Fed sparking a liquidity crisis. In this piece, he considers four potential approaches which are likely under consideration at this very moment.
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Eating The Children
Louis-Vincent Gave
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Gavekal Research
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13 Feb 2026
Spare a thought for the “new economy” investors who diversified their software holdings with bitcoin. It would be an epic understatement to say that crypto and software stocks have been struggling over the past six months. Fear of AI as a disruptor is now affecting companies whose business model is tied to the sharing of knowledge.
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How China Responds To The Gold Price
Xiaoxi Zhang
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Gavekal Dragonomics
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13 Feb 2026
How will China’s demand for gold evolve in response to the metal’s historically high price—and the recent correction that may dent expectations of further gains? Xiaoxi argues that behavior of the different buyers of gold within China varies by their motivations, and suggest that its total gold purchases will not ramp up in 2026.
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Webinar: India Shuffles The Deck
Udith Sikand
,
Tom Miller
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Gavekal Research
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13 Feb 2026
India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.
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Engineering An AI Nation
Laila Khawaja
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Gavekal Technologies: Chips
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12 Feb 2026
Beijing views AI as a transformative technology and aims to make compute a public utility to accelerate nationwide AI diffusion. To achieve this vision, it is coordinating a national megaproject to optimize compute and energy resources, and building a unified computing network to enable centralized monitoring and scheduling.
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How To Contain China In EVs
Cedric Gemehl
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Gavekal Research
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12 Feb 2026
On Tuesday, a Chinese electric vehicle exporter became the first to secure a tariff exemption from the European Union by agreeing to a minimum import price. In doing so, Brussels effectively replaced duties on Chinese EVs with a price floor, a markedly different trade instrument. Since such arrangements allow Chinese firms to keep revenues that would otherwise accrue to the EU budget, the rationale for the change is not obvious. In this piece, Cedric explains Europe’s approach in a market which is not quite what it seems at first blush.
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Video: Is The Debasement Trade Dead?
Will Denyer
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Gavekal Research
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12 Feb 2026
The long rallies in gold and crypto from 2023 to 2025 were to a large extent driven by the US debasement trade. With recent market moves suggesting that these trends may now have run their course, Will Denyer digs into the underlying dynamics to examine whether the debasement trade is really over, and if so what this means for broader asset markets.
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From Schumpeterian To Ricardian Bull Markets
Charles Gave
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Gavekal Research
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12 Feb 2026
Charles reckons that the last 30 years have seen a pattern of Schumpeterian bull markets taking place primarily in the US, while Ricardian bull markets took place mostly in China. For the last two years, his contention has been that the US may be reaching the end of its latest Schumpeterian bull market, and that we are now entering a new Ricardian bull market.
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