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What Could Stop The Precious Metals Bull Market?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 15 Oct 2025
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The run-up since late August in gold, silver, platinum and palladium has certainly been impressive. Unsurprisingly, this upside breakout is starting to give many investors vertigo. In this piece, Louis looks at the potential factors that could upend the recent rally in precious metals.
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Navigating The AI Bubble: An Asset Allocator’s Dilemma
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 14 Oct 2025
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On Monday Will assessed the US’s tech-driven asset bubble from an investor stance. Using a Wicksellian analysis of the economy-wide return on capital, he argued that the surge in artificial intelligence investment is unlikely to end soon—and therefore investors should not rush to load up on bonds. Yet an assessment of asset valuations shows US equities to be very expensive relative to their own history and other asset classes, including US bonds. It leaves investors with a dilemma that he examines in this piece.
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Projecting The Past Into The Future
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 14 Oct 2025
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For anyone who worked in finance in late 2007-2008, no event seemed more important than the unfolding mortgage bust and its global fallout. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, the most important event at the time was the launch of the iPhone, which created a new tech ecosystem and delivered massive profits. In this piece, Louis argues that the success of this revolution should not be conflated with the AI boom today.
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Signs Of Policy Hubris
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 14 Oct 2025
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The US and China are in another escalatory spiral of trade restrictions. Most now expect negotiations to walk back the most extreme measures, but Andrew argues the fact that this brinksmanship on trade has been repeated points to some underlying issues. On China's side, there are signs of complacency, and even hubris, about the strength of the domestic economy.
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Navigating The AI Bubble
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 13 Oct 2025
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US equities—particularly those tied to artificial intelligence—appear to be in a bubble, says Will. The familiar signs are all there: inflated valuations, heavy capital spending, unrealistic growth projections, and vendor financing. In this report, he offers thoughts on when this equity bubble and capital spending boom might end. He also offers suggestions for how investors should be positioned in that eventuality.
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What China’s Rare-Earths Controls Really Mean
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Dragonomics | 13 Oct 2025
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The latest US-China trade war escalation has followed a now-familiar sequence of events. In this piece, Arthur and Laila unpack the negotiating aims, motivations and constraints that inform China’s moves in this dance—and especially the intent of provocative new rare-earths export-control rules released last week.
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Overplaying A Hand
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 13 Oct 2025
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In any negotiation, the worst outcomes often occur when one or both parties underestimate the other’s strengths and overestimate their own. Louis examines the latest twists and turns in the US-China relationship, their respective vulnerabilities, and argues that deescalation is the most likely outcome from the recent spat.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: A Fragile Peace, A Shaky Trade Deal
Tom Holland, Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Research | 10 Oct 2025
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In this week’s Geoeconomic Monitor, we analyze the implications of the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire for Red Sea shipping, and try to figure out why China decided to expand its export controls on rare earths just as Xi Jinping gets ready to meet Donald Trump at the end of the month.
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Spilling The Beans
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 10 Oct 2025
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In mid-September, Louis asked which megatrends will reshape the global economy over the coming decade. Missing from that list was the threat of a cold war—or worse—between the US and China. Instead, he sees a number of reasons to hope that the US-China relationship will not deteriorate, and perhaps even improve, from here.
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Webinar: Dan Wang On China's Engineering State
Arthur Kroeber, Dan Wang / Gavekal Research | 10 Oct 2025 Video
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Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.
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