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The EU’s Tariff Countdown
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 4 Jul 2025
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As a July 9 deadline nears for the US and European Union to reach a trade deal a Brussels-advocated offramp has been put in the mix. This situation leaves the EU facing three different tariff scenarios. To make sense of them, August and Cedric assess three economic effects that will weigh on European growth depending which outcome plays out.
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China’s Bottleneck For Humanoids
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 4 Jul 2025
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Gavekal Technologies analysts attended a major humanoid expo in Hangzhou, where over 200 companies, including Tesla and Unitree, showcased their latest technologies. Despite the buzz, executives from various companies agreed that Chinese humanoid robots lack true intelligence and remain far from meaningful real-world applications. The key barrier is the underdeveloped “robot brain”—AI software essential for perception, decision-making, and adaptability.
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Redefining European Competitiveness
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 4 Jul 2025
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Europe is undergoing a genuine macroeconomic regime shift. Clients have often pushed back on this view, arguing that nothing has really changed aside from Germany’s fiscal reform. Strictly speaking, this is a fair point; Germany will account for the bulk of the widening in the EU’s aggregate budget deficit over the coming years. However, a tight focus on the fiscal arithmetic risks missing the wood for the trees.
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Quarterly Strategy Review: 2Q25
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 3 Jul 2025
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In this new quarterly report, Louis assesses the key investment drivers in the preceding quarter and seeks insights about what will impact markets in the next period. He focuses on the broad strategy environment, as well as the outlook for equities, fixed income, and currencies.
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So, I Must Be Stupid Too
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 3 Jul 2025
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The US president wants the Fed to cut interest rates. He has mentioned 1% as a suitable level (compared with the current Fed funds rate of 4.5%). He seems to base his call on the fact—which everyone knows—that low interest rates are good for economic growth. There is just one problem with this “fact.” It is not true.
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Rethinking Technology Funding
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Jul 2025
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China’s government is rethinking how it will fund the next round of technological development. Tilly argues that policymakers want to move away from the decentralized model that relied heavily on local authorities, and toward a more centralized system in which financial institutions play a bigger role. The intended result of that shift is not a big increase in overall funding, but a more disciplined and controlled process.
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The West’s Challenge In Rare Earths
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 2 Jul 2025
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The Chinese government has said it will resume approvals for exports of rare-earth elements as part of its trade truce with the United States. However, for Washington loosening China’s chokehold on rare-earth supply is a matter of national security. Yet Tom Miller argues that the US will struggle to build a supply chain for the full array of rare earths needed to make high-grade magnets.
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Video: Where Is The US Jobs Market Going?
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 2 Jul 2025 Video
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So far in 2025, the US labor market has been a case of “not too hot, not too cold.” Although trade war uncertainties have muted some hiring plans, the job openings and employment data have given no reasons to expect a marked softening in the economy. KX assesses the how the labor market is likely to develop from here.
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The Nature Of Risk Is Changing
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 2 Jul 2025
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Instability is increasingly rooted in geopolitical tensions and communication strategies, rather than in the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy, says Didier. In President Donald Trump’s case, he deploys a brand of diplomacy defined more by unpredictability than openly stated objectives. Didier explains how all this is shifting the calculus for asset allocation decisions.
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The Asian Bullwhip
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 2 Jul 2025
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Fluctuations in demand among end-consumers get amplified as they travel back up the supply chain, eventually rocking producers in what is known as the “bullwhip effect.” Today, Donald Trump’s stop-start approach to tariffs is set to create a new bullwhip effect that will lash upstream producers in Asia especially violently.
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