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The Lidar Revolution
Tom Hancock, Huang Shichan, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 26 Jan 2026
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Our lead article explains how Chinese companies have seized control of the market for lidar sensors, a key part of autonomous driving technology, through technical innovations that drove down cost and enabled economies of scale. Assisted and autonomous driving may advance more rapidly as a result. But Chinese lidar makers will remain reliant on a global supply chain.
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A New Reflationary Force?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 26 Jan 2026
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Global financial markets entered 2026 with every appearance that they had begun to reprice the unfolding inflationary boom, and so far this year, very little has occurred to derail the inflationary boom trades. Against this backdrop, Friday opened up the door to another possible reflationary force for the world: yen strength.
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Global Reflation Versus Domestic Deflation
Wei He, Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 26 Jan 2026
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China’s extended run of deflation is showing some signs of moderating, as key price indexes start to inch higher. But Wei and Thomas argue that there is a very substantial caveat: those recent moves do not reflect much improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, and China’s policy settings do not look likely to contribute much to global reflation this year.
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Crossing A Currency Threshold
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 23 Jan 2026
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The People’s Bank of China set the renminbi fixing rate stronger than CNY7 to the US dollar for the first time since May 2023. Wei argues that the PBOC is strengthening the fixing rate as market appreciation pressures appear to be ebbing, and is likely to allow a bit more market-driven fluctuations in the exchange rate over the coming months—but will probably not tolerate a major appreciation.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: Greenland Derangement Syndrome
Tom Miller, Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 23 Jan 2026
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On a dramatic day in Davos, President Trump climbed down on Greenland and diplomacy won out. But trust has dissolved on both sides, which gives Europe another reason to beef up defense budgets. Also in this edition of the Geoeconomic Monitor, we look at China’s latest attempt to punish Japan for crossing its red line on Taiwan.
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No Reform-Driven Rally For India
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 23 Jan 2026
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At first glance, 2026 is looking brighter for India. Headline growth is robust, with the economy shrugging off the worst of the tariffs, and signs that private sector investment is picking up. Unfortunately, this hope is overcooked: Modi’s government appears to be more interested in correcting old policy errors than in taking bold measures to boost productivity. The outlook for investors this year is therefore no better than mixed, say Udith and Tom.
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Measuring Imitation
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 22 Jan 2026
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In this week’s Gavekal-IS note, Didier looks at the movement of giant shoals of sardines to draw key lessons about the optimization of asset mixes within investment portfolios.
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Beijing Accelerates Semiconductor Localization
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 22 Jan 2026
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Chinese customs block Nvidia’s H200; China’s analog industry consolidates; Beijing wants more domestic chip tools.
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Video: Why Are Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Rising?
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 22 Jan 2026 Video
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After Europe’s benchmark price for natural gas spiked by 40% between the first and third weeks of January, Cedric Gemehl examines the state of the continent’s gas stores, asks where European countries can source additional imports, and considers the longer term questions raised by Europe’s energy insecurity.
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Vanke Reaches A Deal
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 22 Jan 2026
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China Vanke announced that it secured its first bond-extension agreement with creditors, following weeks of negotiations. Xiaoxi argues that the agreement appears to mark another shift in the fickle regulatory stance towards developers, as the local government probably provided Vanke with more financing in order to secure the deal.
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