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Found 13154 results
Britain On The Brink
Anatole Kaletsky
/
Gavekal Research
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4 Nov 2025
The United Kingdom has been one of the world’s worst performing economies and a value trap for both equity and bond investors since Brexit and the global financial crisis. Three months ago, Anatole wrote two articles arguing that Britain’s political economy was becoming so unsustainable that a cleansing crisis similar to the pound’s 1992 collapse could be in the offing. Ahead of Britain’s November 26 budget, he updates his argument, outlining the choices that Keir Starmer’s government must take in order to break out of a doom loop.
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The End Of American Impunity
Arthur Kroeber
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Gavekal Research
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4 Nov 2025
The trade truce reached by presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Busan last week was not very substantive, but it was significant. In the short run, the global trading system will enjoy a period of stability until the midterms. In the longer run, China has scored an important win by using its rare-earths leverage to force Washington to back down on export controls for the first time. The days of the US being able to sanction China with impunity are over.
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The Struggle For Technology Sovereignty
Laila Khawaja
,
Damien Ma
,
Tom Hancock
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Gavekal Research
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3 Nov 2025
Netherlands-based and Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia recently became collateral damage in the US-China tech rivalry, and the Dutch government’s seizure of the company is a belated effort to regain control of a strategic technology asset. After repeated false dawns, it now seems that China is on the verge of peaking its coal consumption, thanks largely to its investments in renewables. And Chinese biotech firms are racing ahead in trialing innovative new cell and gene therapies for cancer.
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The Struggle For Technology Sovereignty
Laila Khawaja
,
Damien Ma
,
Tom Hancock
/
Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
|
3 Nov 2025
Netherlands-based and Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia recently became collateral damage in the US-China tech rivalry, and the Dutch government’s seizure of the company is a belated effort to regain control of a strategic technology asset. After repeated false dawns, it now seems that China is on the verge of peaking its coal consumption, thanks largely to its investments in renewables. And Chinese biotech firms are racing ahead in trialing innovative new cell and gene therapies for cancer.
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Old And New Eurozone Narratives
Cedric Gemehl
,
August Gudmundsson
/
Gavekal Research
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3 Nov 2025
A series of data releases last week pointed to continued macroeconomic stability in the eurozone. Though modest, upside data surprises continue a trend of stronger-than-expected growth and inflation data that has persisted through most of the year. The eurozone economy is being buffeted by two opposing macroeconomic forces—an external deflationary shock from external factors, and a domestic reflationary shock. Cedric and August argue positive growth suggests that the domestic reflationary force is just prevailing.
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A Good Deal For China’s Exports
Thomas Gatley
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Gavekal Dragonomics
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3 Nov 2025
The deal reached by Chinese top leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump at their meeting in South Korea last week clearly improves China’s export prospects at the margin. Thomas argues that even incremental gains in competitiveness will be welcome heading into 2026, given an expected slowdown in global trade and renewed pressure on Chinese exporters’ pricing power.
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The Trump Trip Seen From Asia
Tom Miller
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Gavekal Research
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31 Oct 2025
Fawned upon by allies desperate to shore up America’s security umbrella and retain access to its vast market, Donald Trump bagged a swag of trade concessions and investment commitments in his tour of Asia this week. For him, this is a big win. Whether it restores faith in the US is more doubtful. As Asia tires of paying US protection money, Tom argues it will begin to look for alternatives.
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London Conference: October 2025
Research Team, Dragonomics Team
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Gavekal Research
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31 Oct 2025
In Gavekal’s London conference last week, partners and analysts covered a wide range of topics across five panels: China and emerging markets; the potential end of US exceptionalism; a fireside chat with Charles Gave; trade and technology wars; and investment strategy.
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The US-China AI Race And Rare Earth Controls
Laila Khawaja
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Gavekal Technologies: Chips
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30 Oct 2025
Prominent voice in China urges rare earth controls on TSMC. Chinese view of Meta’s AI layoff. Chinese AI models expand influence in Africa.
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Video: Netherlands Returns To The Center
Cedric Gemehl
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Gavekal Research
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30 Oct 2025
Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.
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