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Mexico’s Plan To Appease Trump
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 20 Jan 2025
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Last week, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum launched a policy aimed at cutting imports from China in a clear effort to appease US fears that her country is being used by Chinese exporters as a backdoor into the US market. At stake is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is up for renegotiation in 2026.
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Conversation: Why The Lack Of Love For Value?
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 20 Jan 2025
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Since Donald Trump’s reelection, bonds have continued their sell-off, while equities have given up much of the gains from their euphoric post-election rally. The surprise has come from value stocks, which have seen a staggering sell-off despite a new administration in Washington that promises deregulation and tax cuts. In this year’s first Conversation, Louis and Anatole examine what’s been going on in markets and debate what lies ahead with Washington D.C. under new (old) management.
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The Interregnum Ends
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 20 Jan 2025
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The US's 11-week period between the presidential election and the transfer of power allows for the formation of a cabinet and, inevitably, gives time for the incoming administration to signal where its priorities will lie; messages that the market takes on board and discounts. Louis looks at how markets have behaved since Trump's reelection, and considers which trends may fade.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: Bracing For Tariff Man
Arthur Kroeber, Yanmei Xie, Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 17 Jan 2025
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Donald Trump will take office on Monday, vowing to use massive tariffs—and other forms of coercion—to remake the world on America-first lines. We are launching a biweekly Geoeconomics Monitor which will offer short takes on key developments. In today’s first edition, we assess the impacts of Trump’s tariff-based foreign policy, the impact on oil of prospective peace deals, and how emerging economies will hedge their bets.
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A Precarious Acceleration
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 17 Jan 2025
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China’s economic growth accelerated in Q4 mostly due to stimulus and export growth, but the economic indicators were not strong across the board. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that while growth momentum is likely to remain robust for at least the next month or two, there are substantial uncertainties ahead.
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Investors And Europe’s Populist Right
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 17 Jan 2025
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Investor attitudes to Europe’s right wing populist parties have changed beyond all recognition. A decade ago, the prospect that Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, the French Rassemblement National or Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland might gain power would have sent most investors into conniptions. Today, investors barely shrug their shoulders. This is a complete reversal in the zeitgeist. There are two main reasons behind it, both with major implications for investors says Cedric.
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Video: Why Now For Russian Oil Sanctions?
Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 16 Jan 2025 Video
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International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.
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Oil As A Currency
Charles Gave / Gavekal-IS | 16 Jan 2025
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A core argument for Charles is that economic activity can simply be thought of as energy transformed. By extension, primary energy production is the foundational activity in any modern economy. In an era of currency debasement, he extends this argument to portfolio theory and looks at economic values where oil is the base currency.
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Gold Strategy: The Challenge Of Valuing Gold (Part II)
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 16 Jan 2025
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This chartbook follows up on an earlier version published in September 2020. It covers much of the same ground but updates Louis’s and Charles’s views for current conditions and relative asset prices.
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Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 16 Jan 2025
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Wednesday’s gains in US treasuries can be characterized as a relief rally after December’s CPI inflation printed in line with the consensus, and core CPI came in a touch softer. Cheered by the news, market participants brought forward their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to June or July, from September or October previously, and duly bid up bonds. Kai Xian thinks the celebrations are premature.
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