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Venezuela, Iran And The Message For China
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 5 Jan 2026
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The US abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and Donald Trump’s assertion that the US is ready to support protesters demanding regime change in Iran send a message to China that it remains heavily dependent on energy imports vulnerable to US influence. For now, this may serve as a reminder of US leverage ahead of Trump’s visit to China in April.
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Maduro And The Markets
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 Jan 2026
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Investing on geopolitical developments is usually a mug’s game. And in this particular case, it is still hard to know how Venezuela will evolve from Maduro's removal. Still, Louis ponders the outcomes from the US intervention in broad strokes and evaluates the potential winners and losers.
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Course Corrections Into 2026
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 Jan 2026
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China’s leadership is entering 2026 with a clear sense of confidence that the trade truce with the US will hold, and the country’s economic trajectory is back under its own control. The stressful year of 2025 saw the government attempt some significant course corrections in industrial and macro policy. In this piece, Andrew explores what the new year will hold for those key initiatives.
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The Year Of The Bezzle
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 2 Jan 2026
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Most assets performed well in 2025, especially precious metals, leaving investors to ponder whether the coming year will witness more of the same. Louis instead suggests that the risk in 2026 is that the year will go down as being the year of the bezzle.
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Quarterly Strategy Review: 4Q25
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 22 Dec 2025
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At first glance, the last quarter of 2025 was rather dull. However, precious metals delivered double digit gains, while crypto rolled over hard and big AI plays started to struggle. Against this backdrop, Louis reviews the more important events of the past three months, sets out the crucial questions that will confront investors in the near term, and highlights Gavekal’s key investment themes going into 2026.
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The Most Obvious Pricing Anomalies
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 22 Dec 2025
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While the undervaluation of Asian currencies are by far the biggest and most obvious pricing anomaly in today’s global financial markets, they are not the only one. Louis explains how three other mispricings: oil prices relative to precious metals, European defense stocks and AI capex plays, could also unravel and drive markets in 2026.
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Waiting For Anti-Involution Output Cuts
Wei He, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 19 Dec 2025
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China’s anti-involution campaign pushed up commodity prices earlier this year. While those gains have now mostly stalled, the prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon—the raw materials used to make lithium batteries and solar modules—continue to climb. Wei and Tilly unpack the dynamics driving the recent price gains, and find that even in these high-priority sectors, the anti-involution campaign has not led to output cuts so far.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: The Balance Of Risks
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2025
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Today we look at how American strategic priorities are affecting geoeconomic risk. On the other side of the world, there is no evidence that the US is retreating from Asia: it is just asking its friends, notably Taiwan, to pay more—and they are doing so. Also in this issue, we look at Europe’s latest doomed effort to protect its automakers by stemming the inflow of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles.
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Sweden Taps Its ‘Barn Savings’
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2025
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For decades, the fiscal mantra in Sweden has been “saving up in the barns against the coming crisis.” This is now changing. In September the government tabled its 2026 budget, constituting the country’s biggest stimulus outside the Covid pandemic. This is already boosting sentiment among businesses and consumers—and among investors; local equities and the krona have rallied in recent months, with further upside likely in the new year.
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Four Market Mispricings
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2025
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Last week, Louis considered four contrarian trades for 2026 but expressed some skepticism about all of them. In this piece, Anatole suggests a variant on this concept, but offers a high conviction view: four market mispricings which reflect ideas about the world economy that are already shared by many investors but not yet reflected in market prices, even though market trends have already started moving in a direction consistent with these ideas.
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