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A Time To Rejoice
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 20 Dec 2024
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If it bleeds, it leads is the mantra for most news media. Under the constant barrage of bad news, it is easy to overlook the positive. So Louis uses use the last Gavekal Daily before Christmas to highlight some of 2024’s cheerful events.
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International Liquidity: Back To London In The 1960s
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2024
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In the first part of this two-paper series published two weeks ago, Charles examined how the international liquidity system has begun to break down. In the second part, he looks at how the explosive build-up of US dollar deposits in the Hong Kong banking system over the last couple of years could signal how one possible alternative might be poised to emerge—outside the purview of the US authorities.
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If You Must Hold Bonds
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 19 Dec 2024
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Interest rates cannot play nice with both gold and long-dated government bonds at the same time—it is a one-or-the-other deal. Some investors reluctantly find themselves tied to bonds, whether for asset-liability management reasons, or regulatory requirements. Are they doomed? Not necessarily, explains Didier in this report.
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Higher For Longer
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2024
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Did we just see the last Federal Reserve rate cut for a while? No one knows, including Fed chair Jerome Powell. But after the Fed cut by -25bp on Wednesday, Powell said the decision had been a “closer call” than previous cuts, and that policymakers will likely be “more cautious” about future easing. Powell’s guidance for slower, more cautious rate cuts should be taken seriously.
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The Crypto Capital And The (Non) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2024
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Bitcoin has broken through US$100,000 on the belief that Trump 2.0 will be friendlier to the crypto industry. The question for investors is whether the surge in crypto-currency prices since the US election can be sustained. Will argues that the price gains have been driven by two main hopes, one of which is justified and the other of which may not play out as crypto bulls hope.
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Muddled Messages
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2024
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Until the second week of December, the decision at the Bank of Japan’s meeting concluding Thursday seemed a done deal. With inflation above target, and with wages rising at a similarly brisk clip, BoJ officials had diligently signaled a third interest rate hike to follow the earlier increases in March and July. However, recently a string of press reports suggests that the BoJ may wait before raising rates again. So why the apparent change of heart?
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The Trade War Artillery Moves Into Place
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 18 Dec 2024
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A month away from Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the evidence is mounting that his opening gambits on trade policy will be aggressive. Arthur and Thomas examine what the initial US salvo against China might look like, as well as the many options by which Beijing could fire back.
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The Upside Of Political Turmoil
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 17 Dec 2024
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Investors generally regard political turmoil as unwelcome. The German government’s toppling and the fall earlier of the French government are no exceptions. Yet a rational optimist can find good reasons for cheer in the political upheavals convulsing the EU’s two leading economies. The fears of a procyclical fiscal consolidation that have loomed over the eurozone’s growth outlook for much of the last year have now been dispelled. For investors, this no small silver lining.
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The Relentless March Of American Exceptionalism
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 16 Dec 2024
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With 4% of the world’s population, roughly a quarter of global GDP and a third of global profits, the US now accounts for more than two thirds of the MSCI World index’s capitalization. Such an imbalance has not been seen since the late 1980s, when Japan accounted for 45% of the global equity benchmark despite contributing less than a fifth of world GDP. Louis considers the exceptional factors which have granted the US this benefit, but wonders what may cause them to unwind.
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The Shaky Sentiment Recovery
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 16 Dec 2024
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China’s industrial sector largely supported overall growth momentum in November, even as services-sector growth cooled. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that industrial-sector strength is likely to continue due to export gains, and while there is considerable uncertainty around the shaky improvement in household sentiment, policymakers will probably intervene if confidence weakens meaningfully.
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