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Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
Do Export Controls Work?
Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
1 Dec 2025
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
Gavekal Technologies: Chips
China’s AI Views: Hype And Reality
Laila Khawaja
28 Nov 2025
Nvidia’s GPU depreciation in China; Alibaba to ramp up AI spend; Moore Threads is not the Nvidia of China.
More research
Assessing Geopolitical Risks
US hawks target Alibaba over military ties. The Nexperia dispute’s supply chain effect. Applied Materials' China revenue warning.
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.
Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.
Understanding Export Controls And Loopholes
Reality check of Beijing’s Nvidia chip ban. Chinese chip toolmaker fears a hawkish Tokyo. China’s rare earth controls remain potent
Reading The US-China Trade Truce
The Trump-Xi meeting produced a one-year trade truce, but the two sides appear misaligned on what was agreed. Washington claims Beijing will effectively eliminate its rare-earths and critical material controls, but Beijing signals only limited easing through softer enforcement, rather than a formal rollback. Moreover, Trump has repeatedly shown his willingness to redraw the lines of national security, leaving Beijing space to negotiate further concessions.
The Struggle For Technology Sovereignty
Netherlands-based and Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia recently became collateral damage in the US-China tech rivalry, and the Dutch government’s seizure of the company is a belated effort to regain control of a strategic technology asset. After repeated false dawns, it now seems that China is on the verge of peaking its coal consumption, thanks largely to its investments in renewables. And Chinese biotech firms are racing ahead in trialing innovative new cell and gene therapies for cancer.