Gavekal Technologies: Chips

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Rare Earth Dominance

Gavekal Technologies: Briefing

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Rare Earth Dominance

Arthur Kroeber, Tom Hancock, Damien Ma
20 Oct 2025
The tensions over China’s new rare earth export controls may be abating, as Beijing and Washington try to get their trade talks back on track. But the fundamental problem remains: China has a lock on rare earth elements, and there is no easy way to break its chokehold. In this Briefing we revisit the reasons why. We also explain why China is the only country likely to solve the trilemma of making energy green, cheap and secure, and examine its aspirations in biomanufacturing.
Raising The Stakes For Trade Talks

Gavekal Technologies: Chips

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Raising The Stakes For Trade Talks

Laila Khawaja
17 Oct 2025
Beijing probes Qualcomm. How to read China’s rare-earth controls. SiCarrier’s new release disappoints.

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Beijing’s Balancing Act
Beijing wants foreign firms to produce in China. How to read Alibaba’s AI ambitions.
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Getting Industrial Policy Right
Both China and the US are now fully committed to industrial policy, but the ingredients for success will differ in each country. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at what lessons the US can draw from China’s industrial success, and what China’s next steps will be in artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology.
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China AI Finds The Money In Hardware
Chinese AI developers are doing well at keeping pace with the performance of US models, but less well at monetizing them. With Chinese consumers and businesses unwilling to pay much for AI software services, developers are turning to applications embedded in hardware: watches, glasses, earbuds and "education machines" for at-home tutoring. Unlike their US rivals, which can focus on selling chatbot subscriptions, Chinese AI firms need to follow a two-track revenue strategy: hardware applications in their home market, and software services abroad.
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Inside China’s AI Chip Hype
Huawei unveils ambitious AI roadmap. China’s AI star Cambricon faces skepticism. National IC Fund III makes first investment
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The Contours Of Competition
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we examine several facets of the US-China tech competition: the elusive TikTok deal, the threats to biotech, the different profit models for AI developers, and China’s massive advantage in battery chemistry.
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The Signal From TikTok
Topics: A TikTok deal could open space for more deals. China probes American-made analog chips. Beijing’s symbolic ban of an Nvidia chip
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