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Gavekal Technologies: Chips
Open Door And Chip Self-Sufficiency
Laila Khawaja
18 Dec 2025
China plans new chip subsidies, top officials meet AMD chief and China sees rising chip exports
Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
China’s Tech Power—And Its Limits
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock, Damien Ma
15 Dec 2025
In 2025, the world learned to take China’s tech power seriously: the DeepSeek moment, the increased dominance of Chinese electric vehicles, a biotech boom and a trade surplus of over US$1trn all went to show that China is now a technological leader. Yet just as many used to underestimate China’s tech prowess, we are now at risk of exaggerating it. China’s strengths are real, but not unlimited. The theme of our final Briefing for this year is the constraints on Chinese technology power, in semiconductors, new energy and a wide range of sectors where catch-up is slow and global incumbents still enjoy many advantages.
More research
What The End Of The H200 Ban Means
Trump ends the ban on H200 chips; Beijing wants more AI toys; Japan denies photoresist curb
The Successes And Failures Of US Export Controls
Since 2019, Washington has implemented a series of technology export controls on China with the broad objectives of slowing its ability to develop advanced AI and build an indigenous semiconductor ecosystem. The idea is to to protect US national security given AI’s dual-use nature, and to preserve US technological leadership. These measures take the form of country-wide and entity-specific restrictions. They cover exports of advanced chips, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, and US-person support services, with extraterritorial reach for some items.
Do Export Controls Work?
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
China’s AI Views: Hype And Reality
Nvidia’s GPU depreciation in China; Alibaba to ramp up AI spend; Moore Threads is not the Nvidia of China.
Assessing Geopolitical Risks
US hawks target Alibaba over military ties. The Nexperia dispute’s supply chain effect. Applied Materials' China revenue warning.
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.