Gavekal Technologies: Chips
Laila Khawaja
26 Mar 2026
Chinese cloud service providers and artificial-intelligence-model companies are raising prices sharply amid surging inference demand, increasing hardware costs, and limited access to advanced chips. Tighter US export enforcement is expected to have a big impact on the grey-market flows of Nvidia chips into China, while the availability of export-compliant chips remains uncertain amid supply chain and regulatory uncertainties. While this creates opportunities for domestic chips, scaling is limited by capacity constraints and compliance risks. As a result, the AI compute shortage is unlikely to ease in the near term, benefiting firms that control scarce compute resources.