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Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
Rare Earth Dominance
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Hancock, Damien Ma
20 Oct 2025
The tensions over China’s new rare earth export controls may be abating, as Beijing and Washington try to get their trade talks back on track. But the fundamental problem remains: China has a lock on rare earth elements, and there is no easy way to break its chokehold. In this Briefing we revisit the reasons why. We also explain why China is the only country likely to solve the trilemma of making energy green, cheap and secure, and examine its aspirations in biomanufacturing.
Gavekal Technologies: Chips
Getting Industrial Policy Right
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
7 Oct 2025
Both China and the US are now fully committed to industrial policy, but the ingredients for success will differ in each country. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at what lessons the US can draw from China’s industrial success, and what China’s next steps will be in artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology.
More research
The Contours Of Competition
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we examine several facets of the US-China tech competition: the elusive TikTok deal, the threats to biotech, the different profit models for AI developers, and China’s massive advantage in battery chemistry.
Economies Of Scale
China’s core industrial competence is scaling up production of pretty much anything you can name and reducing its cost. The question is not whether it can keep doing this but which sectors will be next. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at a few candidates.
The Power Of Politics
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we explore the many forces at work trying to influence US-China talks on export controls, the risks to China’s booming pharmaceutical sector from security rules in Washington, and Beijing’s political campaign to undo the excess capacity in solar energy gear that a previous political campaign created.
Uneasy Chip Truce, Funding The VC State, Biotech Boom
Breaking up is hard to do. The US and China may both be deeply uncomfortable with how their economies have become intertwined, but decoupling may be even more uncomfortable. In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, Laila Khawaja explains why the US decided to let Nvidia resume selling high-end chips to China, Tom Hanock reports that the boom in Chinese biotech depends on access to the US market, and Arthur Kroeber reviews a brilliant new book about the deep symbiosis between Apple and Chinese state capitalism. Also, Tilly Zhang examines state capitalism’s latest efforts to make its finances more efficient.