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Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
Do Export Controls Work?
Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
1 Dec 2025
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Arthur Kroeber, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
17 Nov 2025
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.
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Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
The Xi-Trump meeting October 31 in South Korea left a wake of positive vibes, but also a lot of unanswered questions: exactly how much the US and China will really roll back their respective export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, whether the dispute over Nexperia's ownership will be resolved, and most important, how long this latest truce in the US-China tech competition will last. In this webinar, Arthur Kroeber and Gavekal Technologies research director Laila Khawaja discussed the latest twists and turns.
The Struggle For Technology Sovereignty
Netherlands-based and Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia recently became collateral damage in the US-China tech rivalry, and the Dutch government’s seizure of the company is a belated effort to regain control of a strategic technology asset. After repeated false dawns, it now seems that China is on the verge of peaking its coal consumption, thanks largely to its investments in renewables. And Chinese biotech firms are racing ahead in trialing innovative new cell and gene therapies for cancer.
Rare Earth Dominance
The tensions over China’s new rare earth export controls may be abating, as Beijing and Washington try to get their trade talks back on track. But the fundamental problem remains: China has a lock on rare earth elements, and there is no easy way to break its chokehold. In this Briefing we revisit the reasons why. We also explain why China is the only country likely to solve the trilemma of making energy green, cheap and secure, and examine its aspirations in biomanufacturing.
Getting Industrial Policy Right
Both China and the US are now fully committed to industrial policy, but the ingredients for success will differ in each country. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at what lessons the US can draw from China’s industrial success, and what China’s next steps will be in artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology.
The Contours Of Competition
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we examine several facets of the US-China tech competition: the elusive TikTok deal, the threats to biotech, the different profit models for AI developers, and China’s massive advantage in battery chemistry.
Economies Of Scale
China’s core industrial competence is scaling up production of pretty much anything you can name and reducing its cost. The question is not whether it can keep doing this but which sectors will be next. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at a few candidates.