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Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
Will AI Supercharge The China Shock?
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock
9 Mar 2026
Most coverage of US-China AI competition assumes that the two countries are in the same race to build the best frontier AI model. But China is running a different race—to deploy artificial intelligence through its massive industrial system. The chances are that smart automation will entrench China’s dominance of global manufacturing, even if no Chinese AI model ever matches the top model from the US.
Gavekal Technologies: Briefing
US Biotech Is Safe From China (For Now)
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja
23 Feb 2026
Today in Gavekal Technologies Briefing we assess the growing fear in the US that its biotech industry is about to be overwhelmed by a flood of low-cost Chinese competition. The fear is overblown: the American edge in underlying innovation is solid, and US and European big pharma will reap most of the financial gains from the new drugs starting to come out of China. But to maintain its lead into the 2030s and beyond, the US biomedicine industry needs some serious regulatory reform.
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Beijing’s ‘New Energy System’
In today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing we explain China’s ambitious plan to become an electricity superpower. Major investments and policy reforms aim to make electricity the nation’s top source of energy, and renewables the top source of electricity. A clean electricity-based economy could give China a global edge.
The Lidar Revolution
Our lead article explains how Chinese companies have seized control of the market for lidar sensors, a key part of autonomous driving technology, through technical innovations that drove down cost and enabled economies of scale. Assisted and autonomous driving may advance more rapidly as a result. But Chinese lidar makers will remain reliant on a global supply chain.
China’s Bet On The Electrotech Stack
Today's Gavekal Technologies Briefing explains that China's big bet on electrification is more than an energy strategy: it is an effort to create a new industrial ecosystem. China is creating an integrated network of related industries. Neither the US nor the Europe has come up with a convincing response.
China’s Tech Power—And Its Limits
In 2025, the world learned to take China’s tech power seriously: the DeepSeek moment, the increased dominance of Chinese electric vehicles, a biotech boom and a trade surplus of over US$1trn all went to show that China is now a technological leader. Yet just as many used to underestimate China’s tech prowess, we are now at risk of exaggerating it. China’s strengths are real, but not unlimited. The theme of our final Briefing for this year is the constraints on Chinese technology power, in semiconductors, new energy and a wide range of sectors where catch-up is slow and global incumbents still enjoy many advantages.
Do Export Controls Work?
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.