Most recent
Gavekal Research
Four Market Mispricings
Anatole Kaletsky
18 Dec 2025
Last week, Louis considered four contrarian trades for 2026 but expressed some skepticism about all of them. In this piece, Anatole suggests a variant on this concept, but offers a high conviction view: four market mispricings which reflect ideas about the world economy that are already shared by many investors but not yet reflected in market prices, even though market trends have already started moving in a direction consistent with these ideas.
Gavekal Research
Our 2025 Holiday Reading List
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Christopher Beddor, Will Denyer, Tom Miller, Wei He, Tan Kai Xian, Tilly Zhang
18 Dec 2025
In our annual holiday reading list, we offer our customary spread of recommendations. Louis-Vincent Gave reviews Charles Gave’s latest book. Charles reviews Alexis Rostand. Christopher Beddor tackles Kenneth Rogoff on the US dollar, Tom Miller reviews a contentious history of Taiwan, and Tilly Zhang considers Chinese industrial policy as portrayed in a work of science fiction. And that’s just a taste of the feast that awaits. Happy reading!
Gavekal Research
How To Think About Renminbi Appreciation
Andrew Batson
18 Dec 2025
China’s currency is moving back to the front of the global macro debate. Andrew argues that speculation about an imminent revaluation of the renminbi confuses means and ends: if China manages its economy well, then the real effective exchange rate should indeed appreciate. But a big appreciation of the nominal exchange rate would not necessarily help bring about an improvement of China’s economic situation.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Investing Into 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
18 Dec 2025
To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Exports To The Rescue
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Looking Forward To A More Ordinary Year
Wei He, Andrew Batson
Manufacturing Investment Is Rationalizing
Thomas Gatley
The Vanke Policy Whiplash
Xiaoxi Zhang
How Internet Platforms Survived Anti-Involution
Ernan Cui
Gavekal Research
A Weak And Bullish US Jobs Report
Will Denyer
Video: The Immigration-Reindustrialization Balancing Act
Tan Kai Xian
Rubik’s ECB
Cedric Gemehl
Japan Warms To Rate Hikes
Udith Sikand
A National Security Style Shift
Arthur Kroeber
Gavekal Technologies
Open Door And Chip Self-Sufficiency
Laila Khawaja
China’s Tech Power—And Its Limits
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock, Damien Ma
What The End Of The H200 Ban Means
Laila Khawaja
The Successes And Failures Of US Export Controls
Laila Khawaja
Do Export Controls Work?
Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
Gavekal-IS
Gold And War
Didier Darcet
The Catastrophe
Didier Darcet
AI Bashing
Didier Darcet
Gold Miners
Didier Darcet
Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Navigating The AI Bubble
Will Denyer
13 Oct 2025
US equities—particularly those tied to artificial intelligence—appear to be in a bubble, says Will. The familiar signs are all there: inflated valuations, heavy capital spending, unrealistic growth projections, and vendor financing. In this report, he offers thoughts on when this equity bubble and capital spending boom might end. He also offers suggestions for how investors should be positioned in that eventuality.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
Germany's Ifo business climate index fell to 87.6 in Dec, from 88 in Nov
Below expected 88.2; expectations index fell to 89.7 in Dec, from 90.5 in Nov
Sentiment to improve as fiscal stimulus kicks in
UK CPI rose 3.2% YoY in Nov, versus 3.6% in Oct
Cooler than expected 3.5%; core CPI rose 3.2% YoY in Nov,versus 3.4% in Oct
Sustained disinflation to provide BoE room for further easing in 2026
Indonesia left benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75%
As expected
BI's dovish bias constrained by risk of additional weakness in IDR
South African CPI rose 3.5% YoY in Nov, versus 3.6% in Oct
Softer than expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 3.2% YoY in Nov, versus 3.2% in Oct
Benign inflation outlook bolsters case for rate cut by SARB
Test Your Knowledge
Americans consumed a total of 3.33bn liters of wine in 2024, the most in the world. But which country drank the most per capita?
- Argentina
- Italy
- France
- Portugal
Chart of the Week
China’s cross-border travel numbers have returned to pre-pandemic levels, with international air passengers briefly touching the highest level in a decade during the summer. Outbound travel spending has mostly hovered around 2019 levels, while inbound travel spending has climbed further. That’s because the government substantially loosened visa policies for visitors from several countries; a weak currency and domestic deflation have helped too. China’s tourism exports are booming, but the outlook is clouded by geopolitical tensions.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Investing Into 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
18 Dec 2025
To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.
Tariff Troubles
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Understanding The New Trade Regime
In today’s Monitor, we continue our analysis of what Donald Trump’s new trade regime means for the world economy, explain how Indian prime minister Narendra Modi blundered and wound up facing a 50% tariff, and argue that none of the conditions for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war are in place.
Where Tariffs Leave US Industry
Late Thursday the US president signed two executive orders cementing—for now—the new tariff rates announced piecemeal over recent days in a series of social media posts and bilateral deals. The higher tariffs on imported inputs are but one part of a broader story that is shifting the narrative for US manufacturing. In this Daily, Kai Xian examines the other factors.
Japan’s Flaky Trade Deal
The US-Japan trade deal announced late Tuesday in Washington triggered a powerful rally in Japanese automaker stocks. But the anomalies and distortions implied by the limited details of the deal so far available mean the provisions of this “framework agreement” are unlikely to survive in their current form, warns Udith Sikand.
US economy & markets
A Weak And Bullish US Jobs Report
On the face of things, Tuesday’s US labor market data release is concerning. The headline unemployment rate for November ticked up for the fourth time in five months to 4.6%. Part of the story is that tighter immigration policies are weighing on labor force growth, and in turn the potential for job growth. And yet, a closer look at the labor market suggests this situation may end up being bullish for US equities.
QE For Christmas
The Federal Reserve is now easing with both hands on the pump. It has delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut and shifted decisively toward balance sheet expansion, only 10 days after closing the quantitative tightening program which began in June 2022. In effect, the Fed handed investors a measured dose of quantitative easing for Christmas, signaling a policy mix that is now unmistakably tilted toward accommodation.
More Than AI
US electricity consumption is rising. This is largely because of the build-out of power-hungry AI data centers. But not wholly. The increasing electrification of the economy, including the adoption of electric cars, is also driving the growth of power demand—growth will continue even if the AI frenzy in the stock market cools and data center capex diminishes.
Going Nuclear
Even in the era of AI mega-capex, US$80bn is a lot of money. This is the sum the US government is proposing to pour into the construction of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors as part of a broader US$400bn drive to upgrade US energy infrastructure to meet future demand for electricity. Such lavish state-backed investment plans can be a two-edged sword for investors.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui
24 Nov 2025
China’s household consumption growth has weakened further in 2025, primarily driven by the weak labor market and slowing household income growth. Policymakers have announced several new measures to boost spending, but there are also reasons to think that the slowdown might continue. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers of household consumption, and explores what it means for consumer spending in the months to come.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: The Immigration-Reindustrialization Balancing Act
Tan Kai Xian
17 Dec 2025
After two national guards were tragically shot by an Afghan national near the White House, the Trump administration has again tightened its immigration policy. The issue is that this stance comes with economic costs and potentially threatens the government’s stated aim of reindustrializing the United States. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian explains how US policymakers will likely manage that balancing act.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 3Q25
Louis-Vincent Gave
1 Oct 2025
Despite the fast and furious newsflow through the third quarter, foreign exchange and fixed income markets remained remarkably calm, giving room for AI enthusiasm to return with a vengeance, gold to surge, and the bull market in Chinese equities to accelerate. Against this backdrop, Louis considers both the headline trends and some of the more neglected developments of the last three months and examines the questions likely to dominate investors’ days in the coming quarter.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Four Market Mispricings
Last week, Louis considered four contrarian trades for 2026 but expressed some skepticism about all of them. In this piece, Anatole suggests a variant on this concept, but offers a high conviction view: four market mispricings which reflect ideas about the world economy that are already shared by many investors but not yet reflected in market prices, even though market trends have already started moving in a direction consistent with these ideas.
Rubik’s ECB
By luck or design, the ECB has pulled off a near-perfect landing for inflation. After surging in 2021-24, eurozone inflation has settled back almost bang in line with the ECB’s 2% target. Market and survey-based measures of future inflation are also within similarly tight margins of the ECB’s target. So, what could upset this equilibrium?
Germany’s Energy-Intensive Industries Power On
Germany’s energy-intensive industries are finally seeing the pressures that drove their post-2022 slump begin to ease. After three years of elevated electricity costs and weak eurozone demand, both constraints are starting to lift, say August and Cedric. Power prices remain high, but policy relief is on the horizon, and the regional business cycle is turning up after an extended downturn.
Finally Some Sensible Fiscal Policy
Germany’s decision to relax its constitutional debt brake early in 2025 signaled a meaningful shift in the European Union’s fiscal policy consensus away from consolidation at all costs. As 2026 approaches, the key question August and Cedric ask is: how much has actually changed?
Currencies
How To Think About Renminbi Appreciation
Rubik’s ECB
Resolving The Renminbi Anomaly
Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Takaichi, China And The Yen
Video: Investing In An Ungovernable Europe
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Axis Of Energy
Convictions And Concerns
The Petro-Currency That Wasn’t
Geoeconomic Monitor: Digital Currencies And Financial Power
