Most recent
Gavekal Research
Europe’s Coming Existential Crisis
Louis-Vincent Gave
28 Nov 2025
One doesn’t need to be a full-blown Marxist, or even to have gone through the French educational system, to highlight that more often than not a country’s elite will organize the political system to best suit its own interests. This has been plain to see in the European Union. However, this cozy arrangement may be coming to an end, and the catalyst for Europe’s next crisis may well be the unfolding Ukrainian tragedy.
Gavekal Research
Video: The Road Ahead For India
Udith Sikand
27 Nov 2025
As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Europe's New Cyclical Dynamics
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl
27 Nov 2025
Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.
Gavekal Research
Turning Bullish On Britain (But Not On The Labour Party)
Anatole Kaletsky
27 Nov 2025
The economic U-turn that I have been eagerly anticipating since Britain’s July 2024 general election has happened The markets have not yet noticed, because the carefully disguised policy reversals in Wednesday’s budget were totally unlike the screeching handbrake turn that I predicted in July. Anatole examines what this means for investors.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Where Did The Young Cadres Go?
Christopher Beddor
The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui
Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Wei He
What’s New In The Plan For Tech
Tilly Zhang
The Costs Of The Property-Policy Misfire
Xiaoxi Zhang
Gavekal Research
Europe’s Energy Complacence
Cedric Gemehl, Tom Holland
Resolving The Renminbi Anomaly
Louis-Vincent Gave
Going Nuclear
Tan Kai Xian
Europe Strategy: Stick With It
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson
A Great Bear Market Hedge
Charles Gave
Gavekal Technologies
China’s AI Views: Hype And Reality
Laila Khawaja
Assessing Geopolitical Risks
Laila Khawaja
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Arthur Kroeber, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
Webinar: Technology Impacts Of The Trump-Xi Truce
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
Understanding Export Controls And Loopholes
Laila Khawaja
Gavekal-IS
AI Bashing
Didier Darcet
Gold Miners
Didier Darcet
Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Didier Darcet
The S&P 500 Gini Index
Didier Darcet
The Currencies Of Bridge-Builders
Didier Darcet
Gavekal Research
Navigating The AI Bubble
Will Denyer
13 Oct 2025
US equities—particularly those tied to artificial intelligence—appear to be in a bubble, says Will. The familiar signs are all there: inflated valuations, heavy capital spending, unrealistic growth projections, and vendor financing. In this report, he offers thoughts on when this equity bubble and capital spending boom might end. He also offers suggestions for how investors should be positioned in that eventuality.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
Eurozone EC economic sentiment index rose to 97 in Nov, from 96.8 in Oct
As expected; services sentiment rose to 5.7 while industrial sentiment fell to -9.3
Points to stronger growth ahead as reflationary forces build
Eurozone M3 money supply rose 2.8% YoY in Oct, the same pace as in Sep
As expected; loans to households rose 2.8% YoY; loans to non-financial corporates rose 2.9%
Continued upswing in credit cycle will add to tailwinds into 2026
Japanese retail sales in nominal terms rose 1.6% MoM in Oct, versus 0% in Sep
Stringer than expected 0.8%; YoY, retail sales rose 1.7% in Oct, versus 0.2% in Sep
No clear signal from underlying trend; tilts case in favor of BoJ rate hikes
South Korea's industrial production fell -4% MoM in Oct, versus -1..1% in Sep
Weaker than expected 0.3%; YoY, industrial production fell -8.1% in Oct, versus 11.9% in Sep
Volatile series; semiconductor demand remains a bright spot, limiting downside risk
Test Your Knowledge
Since their peak in September 2021, Hong Kong home prices have fallen -26%. Over the same period, what has happened to residential rents?
- Down -22%
- Down -2%
- Up 9%
Chart of the Week
China’s renminbi lending overseas has exploded to around RMB2.5trn, about three times more than at the end of 2021. Kenya’s conversion of US$3.5bn in dollar-denominated loans to renminbi has drawn attention to such lending, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Europe's New Cyclical Dynamics
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl
27 Nov 2025
Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.
Tariff Troubles
Video: Supreme Court v. Trump’s Trade Policy
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers. In this interview, Will outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses.
Geoeconomic Monitor: Understanding The New Trade Regime
In today’s Monitor, we continue our analysis of what Donald Trump’s new trade regime means for the world economy, explain how Indian prime minister Narendra Modi blundered and wound up facing a 50% tariff, and argue that none of the conditions for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war are in place.
Where Tariffs Leave US Industry
Late Thursday the US president signed two executive orders cementing—for now—the new tariff rates announced piecemeal over recent days in a series of social media posts and bilateral deals. The higher tariffs on imported inputs are but one part of a broader story that is shifting the narrative for US manufacturing. In this Daily, Kai Xian examines the other factors.
Japan’s Flaky Trade Deal
The US-Japan trade deal announced late Tuesday in Washington triggered a powerful rally in Japanese automaker stocks. But the anomalies and distortions implied by the limited details of the deal so far available mean the provisions of this “framework agreement” are unlikely to survive in their current form, warns Udith Sikand.
US economy & markets
Going Nuclear
Even in the era of AI mega-capex, US$80bn is a lot of money. This is the sum the US government is proposing to pour into the construction of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors as part of a broader US$400bn drive to upgrade US energy infrastructure to meet future demand for electricity. Such lavish state-backed investment plans can be a two-edged sword for investors.
Hostage To The Equity Market
Nvidia’s announcement of 21% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth in the three months to late October and of strong guidance for the current quarter will allay investor fears for the sustainability of the AI boom, at least in the near term. But doubts will soon return, in part because the outlook for US economic growth is increasingly hostage to the health of the equity market.
The Tide Ebbs For Private Credit
The cockroaches continue to scurry out of the skirting. On Monday, it emerged that the FBI is investigating a clutch of private credit borrowers. However, the focus on fraudulent borrowing and denials that these problems are endemic in private credit masks a deeper truth: high water has passed for the business, and the tide for private credit is now receding. The forces driving this ebb tide are positive for large US banks.
Navigating The AI Bubble: Buy Chinese Tech And US Power
Notwithstanding renewed market jitters over lofty valuations, the artificial intelligence race shows no sign of slowing, with US tech firms continuing to advance aggressive capital spending plans. Yet these ambitions are running up against a new constraint—not chip supply, but electricity availability. As this constraint tightens, investors may need to rethink their positioning for the next leg of the AI capex boom.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui
24 Nov 2025
China’s household consumption growth has weakened further in 2025, primarily driven by the weak labor market and slowing household income growth. Policymakers have announced several new measures to boost spending, but there are also reasons to think that the slowdown might continue. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers of household consumption, and explores what it means for consumer spending in the months to come.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Downside Risks Abound
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
23 Sep 2025
India’s domestic economic recovery is at risk as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faces a lose-lose choice: continue to import cheap oil from its long-time ally Russia or face punitive tariffs in its biggest export market. Last week’s US interest rate cut will give the central bank more room to cut rates, but the underperformance of Indian asset prices looks set to continue.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: The Road Ahead For India
Udith Sikand
27 Nov 2025
As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Quarterly Strategy Review: 3Q25
Louis-Vincent Gave
1 Oct 2025
Despite the fast and furious newsflow through the third quarter, foreign exchange and fixed income markets remained remarkably calm, giving room for AI enthusiasm to return with a vengeance, gold to surge, and the bull market in Chinese equities to accelerate. Against this backdrop, Louis considers both the headline trends and some of the more neglected developments of the last three months and examines the questions likely to dominate investors’ days in the coming quarter.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Turning Bullish On Britain (But Not On The Labour Party)
The economic U-turn that I have been eagerly anticipating since Britain’s July 2024 general election has happened The markets have not yet noticed, because the carefully disguised policy reversals in Wednesday’s budget were totally unlike the screeching handbrake turn that I predicted in July. Anatole examines what this means for investors.
Europe’s Energy Complacence
As expectations grew of a possible peace deal over Ukraine, on Monday Europe’s benchmark TTF natural gas price fell to its lowest since May 2024. However, the decline in TTF prices predates the latest round of peace plans, and may reflect a dangerous degree of complacence over Western European energy supplies.
Inching Towards Capital Market Union
The German government has signaled it is willing to transfer key powers from its domestic securities regulator to ESMA, the Paris-based market EU regulator. With this reversal of Berlin’s longstanding position, progress on the EU’s perennially delayed capital markets union becomes possible. This is significant, argues Cedric, because even small steps towards a single European securities market could have appreciable macroeconomic effects.
A Limited Case For Extending Eurozone Duration
Has the time come to extend duration in eurozone fixed income? The question has persisted since the bond market sell-off in 2022. Over this period, investors have found short-term tactical opportunities to extend maturities. But for those with a longer-term horizon, maintaining a short-duration position has remained the more effective strategy.
Currencies
Resolving The Renminbi Anomaly
Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Takaichi, China And The Yen
Video: Investing In An Ungovernable Europe
The Renminbi’s Recent Run
What Money Is
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Axis Of Energy
Convictions And Concerns
The Petro-Currency That Wasn’t
Geoeconomic Monitor: Digital Currencies And Financial Power
