Most recent
Gavekal Research
Webinar: After Tariff 'Liberation Day'
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
3 Apr 2025
If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.
Gavekal Research
Video: Tariffs Versus Tax Cuts
Will Denyer
3 Apr 2025
The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.
Gavekal Research
To Bargain Or Not To Bargain, That Is The Question
Arthur Kroeber
3 Apr 2025
Donald Trump’s tariff “liberation day” exceeded expectations. If all of his announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. There are strong reasons for many countries to choose the second course.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Worst-Case Tariff Scenario
Thomas Gatley, Wei He
3 Apr 2025
US President Donald Trump announced a package of tariff hikes that make the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 look tame by comparison. Thomas and Wei argue that this is the worst-case trade scenario for China: massive tariff hikes with no clear path to negotiations, as well as the risk of a wider shock to global economic growth. Chinese policymakers will need to step up stimulus efforts in response.
Gavekal Dragonomics
A Backdoor Bailout For State Developers
Xiaoxi Zhang
Multinationals Caught In The Trade Conflict
Christopher Beddor
The Market Liquidity Drain Reverses
Thomas Gatley
Fighting The Fertility Decline
Ernan Cui
A Plan To Help Cautious Consumers
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Leveraging Local AI Advantages
Tilly Zhang
The Last Supper For LGFVs
Xiaoxi Zhang
The Next Big Fund
Tilly Zhang
Who Loses More From Trade War?
Thomas Gatley
Keeping The Fiscal Pace
Wei He
More research
US Exceptionalism Versus European Pessimism
Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl
Germany’s Inflationary Dynamic
Cedric Gemehl
A Poor April Fool's
Louis-Vincent Gave
A New Economic Logos
Charles Gave
The Unfolding Bear Steepener
Louis-Vincent Gave
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Tariff Power-Play
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland, Tom Miller
Stagflation Or Reflation?
Will Denyer
A UK Fiscal U-Turn Is Inevitable
Anatole Kaletsky
The Future Of Fannie And Freddie
Tan Kai Xian
Video: Which Way After Gold's Big Rally?
Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal Research
Asia’s Coming Deflationary Boom
Charles Gave
21 Mar 2025
Increasingly able to pay for energy in their own currencies, Asian countries no longer need to accumulate US dollar reserves. This means they no longer need to undervalue their currencies, which points to the development of an epic deflationary boom in Asia. Investors should overweight long-duration assets in the region and prepare for a prized triple merit scenario, writes Charles.
The global view
The Unfolding Bear Steepener
More than anything, business leaders crave predictability. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs, regulations, and fiscal and monetary policies usually cause hiring and capital spending decisions to be postponed. Yet, interestingly, and in spite of softer economic data, long-dated treasury yields have inched higher in March, while those at the short end have either flat-lined or dipped. Louis examines potential explanations for this move.
Financial Versus Operational Leverage
Bull markets are either driven by increasing “operational leverage,” usually because of the application of technology, or by the expansion of “financial leverage,” usually concomitant with growing bank balance sheets. Interestingly this year, financials have started to outperform tech stocks. Is this a sign that the world may be shifting from a bull market led by improving operational leverage to one propelled by growing financial leverage?
Asia’s Coming Deflationary Boom
Increasingly able to pay for energy in their own currencies, Asian countries no longer need to accumulate US dollar reserves. This means they no longer need to undervalue their currencies, which points to the development of an epic deflationary boom in Asia. Investors should overweight long-duration assets in the region and prepare for a prized triple merit scenario, writes Charles.
Around The World Of Policy Goals
History is on the move once more, with old certainties and old alliances having to be rethought. That is forcing policymakers in national capitals to focus on their underlying national interests and ask hard questions about their current policy setup. Louis conducts a review of the changing drivers impacting France, Germany, Great Britain, the United States, Russia, India and China in a bid to identify the direction that all may take in the coming period.
Test Your Knowledge
Which sector created the most new billionaires in the past decade?
- Finance & investments
- Technology
- Manufacturing
- Fashion & retail
Chart of the Week
The increase in the relative valuation between US and European equities, as measured by the forward 12-month P/E ratio, can be divided into three phases. The first, 2016-2021, saw relative US stock valuations steadily rise, while remaining within the historical range established since 2003. The second phase, 2022-2024, was characterized by a rise in relative valuation that exceeded the established range and accelerated rapidly. This year we have witnessed a sharp decline in the relative valuation of US stocks—a third phase, which is also evident when normalized for sector and style. The question now is whether this decline will continue.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
US economy & markets
US Exceptionalism Versus European Pessimism
Few global investors saw this year’s sell-off in US equities and the concomitant rally in European equities coming. This shift is mostly explained by a narrowing valuation gap rather than any great change in earnings. Kai Xian and Cedric ask what explains the reversal and whether it will prove more than a flash in the pan.
Stagflation Or Reflation?
With President Donald Trump adding new import tariffs by the day, is the US set to see slowing growth, rising unemployment and high inflation? At Gavekal, we call this stagflationary brew an inflationary bust. Although the risk of stagflation has risen since January, Will thinks the more likely outcome is reflation, or in other words an inflationary boom.
The Future Of Fannie And Freddie
The US administration is lining up government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for potential privatization. They could lose their government guarantees and face resulting ratings downgrades, potentially inflicting mark-to-market losses on holders off mortgage-backed securities and push up mortgage rates. However, any broader economic fallout for residential property prices or US growth will be small.
A Race To The Bottom? Not So Fast
As Donald Trump’s trade “liberation day” approaches, observers are increasingly wondering whether the escalating tariff war could cause a US, or even global, recession. The answer is that the prospect of an all-out trade conflict does increase the probability of recession both in the US and abroad. But for now, recession should not be investors’ base case.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: After Tariff 'Liberation Day'
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
3 Apr 2025
If all of Donald Trump's announced “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Tariffs Versus Tax Cuts
Will Denyer
3 Apr 2025
The huge increase in US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump promise higher inflation and a hit to growth. The swing factor, argues Will, is likely to be the balance of fiscal policy in the US. While the newly imposed universal tariffs promise to be a major tax revenue raiser that sucks demand out of the economy, what happens with other tax cuts promised by Trump will dictate whether the US faces a recession, or not.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: The Road To Recovery
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
7 Mar 2025
After slowing for four consecutive quarters, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. GDP growth is back above 6%, buoyed by a monetary policy easing and healthy household consumption. Tax cuts will also help at the margin. But a dramatic acceleration in growth is unlikely, as the public infrastructure boom fades and private investment continues to disappoint.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Tending The Green Shoots
Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
31 Jan 2025
After China’s pivot to stimulus in late September, green shoots have appeared across the economy, with property sales bouncing, consumption improving and deflation easing. But the turn in growth is tentative and markets are still unconvinced: the green shoots need more tending from government policy support. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics team assess the prospects for 2025.
Europe's economy
US Exceptionalism Versus European Pessimism
Few global investors saw this year’s sell-off in US equities and the concomitant rally in European equities coming. This shift is mostly explained by a narrowing valuation gap rather than any great change in earnings. Kai Xian and Cedric ask what explains the reversal and whether it will prove more than a flash in the pan.
Germany’s Inflationary Dynamic
Investors worried that German fiscal stimulus may tip Europe into an inflationary spiral can take comfort from a benign starting point. Eurozone headline inflation dipped to 2.2% year-on-year in March, while the core reading came in lower than expected. Reduced pricing pressures stem from a cyclically weak German economy, and since it will take a while for its hotly anticipated stimulus to take effect, Europe is looking at a disinflationary interregnum.
A UK Fiscal U-Turn Is Inevitable
Rachel Reeves' mini-budget was just the latest in a long series of unforced errors which has seen the UK slide down the G7’s performance table. Adherence to a set of arbitrary and inappropriate fiscal rules is weighing on growth to such an extent, it is inevitable the government will abandon its current fiscal blueprint within the next 12 months. While politically traumatic, this U-turn could provide the economic shot in the arm the UK so badly needs.
The Other Reason To Like Europe
The handsome year-to-date outperformance of European equities has been driven largely by expectations of a growth-stimulating fiscal expansion from eurozone governments, led by the incoming German coalition. But fiscal easing is only part of the story. The eurozone bank lending cycle is also turning up. In Europe’s heavily bank-dependent economy, this upswing is set to prove a key driver of regional economic growth over the medium term.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
US Strategy: Towards A Tighter Labor Market
Tan Kai Xian
21 Jan 2025
On day one of Donald Trump’s administration, executive orders flowed to constrain immigration into the US. Follow-up measures may further limit the supply of workers. The US labor market has cooled off from its red-hot level seen after the pandemic. The result has been an easing-up of wage growth that has allowed US inflation to fall toward the Federal Reserve’s target. This somewhat stable equilibrium is, however, unlikely to last long.
Equities
US Exceptionalism Versus European Pessimism
The Interregnum Ends
As January Goes, So Goes The Year?
Four Known Unknowns In The Year Ahead
Navigating The New Year Volatility
Building Narratives Around Obvious Outliers
Oil & commodities
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Tariff Power-Play
What We Don’t Talk About When We Talk About Ukraine
The Upside Surprise In Commodity Demand
The Trouble With Energy Dominance
Video: Why Now For Russian Oil Sanctions?
Building Narratives Around Obvious Outliers
China tech
The Next Big Fund
What DeepSeek Means For China’s AI
Video: The DeepSeek Leap
Another Sputnik Moment
Biden’s Last Salvo Of Tech Protectionism
China’s Export Controls Send A Serious Signal
Then Yen Carry Trade Unwinds
Video: The Yen Carry Trade And Emerging Markets
Usually when developed market volatility spikes, the world’s emerging markets fall victim to collateral damage. Things have been less simple this time around. Although Latin American currencies, especially the Mexican peso, have been hit hard by the unwinding of the yen carry trade, East Asian currencies have risen strongly. Udith Sikand explores what lies behind the divergence.
More Questions Than Answers
It’s a dedicated Frenchman who consents to work in August. But the financial market volatility of the last week has seen Louis hard at it, fielding client questions about the outlook for global markets and economies. In this paper, he sets out the most salient questions, and offers his answers.
The Root Cause Of Summer Ructions
Investors are no longer seeing virtue in a Goldilocks scenario of moderating demand and easing price pressures, but having a summer freak-out over faltering global growth. Udith and Kai Xian diagnose the market jitters and say that the sell-off in high-yield currencies and tech stocks likely stems from movements in Japan rather than disappointing US economic data.
The Yen And Deindustrialization
There is a theory out there which holds that the extreme undervaluation of the yen is a consequence of Japanese deindustrialization, as Japan Inc. has shipped its factories abroad, pushing Japan's economy into an irreversible trade deficit even while it continues to run a monster current account surplus. Not so fast, says Charles, whose analysis of Japan’s external balances throws up a different explanation—and suggests a compelling investment opportunity.
