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Exchange Rates And Oil Shocks
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 10 Mar 2026
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Charles defines a large move in the price of oil as a change of more than 40% over the previous six months. In this Daily, he explores how the oil shock will affect major currencies and gold, and how to hedge against a further escalation in energy prices.
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The Bargain In The Five-Year Plan
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 10 Mar 2026
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Chinese officials from Xi Jinping on down have in recent months been talking the talk on household consumption and rebalancing toward domestic demand. The launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan provided them with a perfect opportunity to decisively shift the growth model. Analyzing the plan, though, Andrew finds that the model is being updated rather than replaced. Household interests are getting more political attention, but mainly as a way to bolster support for the technology-driven development strategy.
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Webinar: The War And Markets
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 10 Mar 2026 Video
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Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.
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Will AI Supercharge The China Shock?
Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 9 Mar 2026
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Most coverage of US-China AI competition assumes that the two countries are in the same race to build the best frontier AI model. But China is running a different race—to deploy artificial intelligence through its massive industrial system. The chances are that smart automation will entrench China’s dominance of global manufacturing, even if no Chinese AI model ever matches the top model from the US.
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Hedging In A Time Of War
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 9 Mar 2026
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War is punishing for portfolios, especially when it disrupts the flow of oil and gas. War can also affect markets through higher government borrowing, rising inflation, differing monetary policy responses and changes in the economic outlook of affected regions. The effect of these forces may explain why some hedges and safe havens have underperformed during the first week of the US-led war against Iran, says Will.
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On Price Controls And Export Restrictions
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 9 Mar 2026
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In the eyes of the voting public and of US allies, Donald Trump would very much carry the blame for the surging oil price. And with eight months to go before the midterm elections, this would leave the White House in a political predicament. If oil prices stay above US$100/bbl, the pressure on Trump to “do something” about rising prices will become intense, with the troubling prospect of price controls and export restrictions on the horizon.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: After The War
Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the war in the Middle East escalates, the immediate prospects for peace look poor. We attempt to peer through the fog of war to determine who will benefit when it does eventually end. If the United States achieves its aims, Tom Holland envisages a boom for Iran and the Gulf. If it does not, he predicts the whole region will decline. Tom Miller asks why China has provided no meaningful support to Iran.
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Iran And The Fog Of War
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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The overall measured response of markets to the war in Iran points to investors taking a view that we are experiencing short-term disruption that should soon pass. In this piece, Louis interrogates that proposition from the perspective of the US, Israel, and Iran.
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Picking Up Loans On The Cheap
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the US-led war in Iran consumes international investor attention, private credit concerns continue to bubble up within the US itself. Practitioners such as Blue Owl and Blackstone have seen their share prices crater as investors question the quality of non-bank, privately negotiated lending. The sell-off raises four questions.
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China Enriches Export Control Toolkit
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 5 Mar 2026
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Beijing debuts export control “watch list”; Chinese firms accelerate auto chip self-sufficiency; National IC Fund III invests in humanoids; implications of the US strike on Iran.
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