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On The Ground At China’s Tech Conferences (Part II)
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 23 Apr 2026
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This report is the second part of the multi-part series summarizing the key findings from the many conversations Gavekal Technologies had with on-the-ground sources in China: Waiting for Nvidia chips; companies find new workarounds; China’s rising SSD star.
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Rolling Over The Iran Ceasefire
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 23 Apr 2026
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The next round of the Islamabad peace talks is up in the air, partly because it is not obvious who really holds the levers of power in Iran. The plan was that, should Iran’s political leaders be killed, the 31 regional commanders would become independent actors whose task was simply to take the fight to the enemy. Louis argues this leaves investors with three main possible scenarios.
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Why Corporate Margins Will Take A Hit
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 23 Apr 2026
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China’s producer price index moved into positive YoY territory in March after 41 consecutive months of deflation. But Thomas argues that this return to rising prices does not prefigure a shift towards stronger corporate profitability: for most of the industrial sector, rising energy prices are going to be absorbed mostly by corporate margins, denting profits and equity prices.
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Good News Versus Bad News
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 22 Apr 2026
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It would be easy to feel despondent in the face of the on-again/off again Iran war, and the apparent front-running of every important tweet. To be sure, there are some serious causes for concern, says Louis, yet markets have remained buoyant and climbed the proverbial “wall of worry”. In this report, he assesses recent positive developments and then reviews the hurdles that stand in the way of a sustained rally in markets.
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Opioid Pushers And Central Bankers
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 22 Apr 2026
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Consensus opinion is usually wrong among the policymakers and financiers who gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington every six months. But to every rule there is an exception. Mid-April’s IMF meetings produced three near-unanimous views. One is almost mathematically certain and a second extremely likely, leaving only a third consensus for investors to challenge and trade against.
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China’s Supply-Chain Security Strategy
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Tom Hancock, Huang Shichan, AJ Cortese / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 21 Apr 2026
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China would like the US to roll back its restrictions on semiconductor exports and the US would like China to loosen up rare-earth export licenses, but neither side is likely to oblige. Although its rare-earths card is solid for now, China is taking out some extra insurance with new regulations. In today’s China Tech Brief we assess their impact.
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Can The World’s Biggest Grid Get Smarter?
Damien Ma, AJ Cortese / Gavekal Technologies: New Energy | 21 Apr 2026
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In the first issue of our new biweekly New Energy Insight, Damien Ma takes a close look at where the world’s biggest electricity system is headed. China’s grid is easily the best and most technically advanced in the world, but it is still plagued with problems: most important, that vast new quantities of wind and solar generation are not reliably connected.
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Video: Has The Fed's Priority Shifted?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 21 Apr 2026 Video
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On Tuesday, attention in Washington will focus on the politics surrounding Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Assuming Donald Trump’s nominee is ultimately confirmed, Will considers how he may approach the role, and whether he will, as many expect, end up doing the administration’s bidding on monetary policy.
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India Is Still In The AI Race
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 21 Apr 2026
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While tech-heavy Asian equity markets such as South Korea have regained their pre-Iran war highs, India’s market continues to lag. It remains exposed to the risk of a prolonged energy shock, and the equity market is not only underexposed to the AI zeitgeist, but its key source of foreign exchange earnings—IT services exports—faces potential disruption. Taken together, India appears to be facing the worst of both worlds. But Udith could yet prove a boon to the country.
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The Promise Of A Services Opening
Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Apr 2026
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China’s government is telling foreign companies and governments that it is now prepared to open the long-restricted services sectors to more foreign investment. Tilly and Christopher argue that this is not the first time China has promised more opportunities for multinational companies, and there are clear limits to opening in some areas. But there are nonetheless reasons to think this latest push could achieve some traction.
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