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Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 21 Nov 2025
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The Trump administration keeps talking about peace, but there is some chance the US could try a decapitation strike to take out Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and install a more friendly government. Also in this edition, we look at the latest flare-up in China-Japan tensions, and find that China’s big international lending portfolio is less about Belt-and-Road infrastructure and more about financing cross-border expansion by Chinese firms.
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Rational And Irrational Bubbles
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 Nov 2025
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Those of us who have been in this business for a while, says Charles, will remember the 1999-2000 dot-com era for two main reasons: There was an enormous stock market bubble, and this bubble was perfectly rational. In this piece he examines the pay-off profile of dot-com companies compared with today's AI companies and concludes today's AI bubble seems far from rational.
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Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Nov 2025
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Since 2022, the rest of the world has generally not been that interested in lending renminbi to China— i.e., buying its government bonds—thanks to its low interest rates and a weakening trend in the currency. But Wei argues that those same factors have made it more attractive for the rest of the world to borrow renminbi from China. In this piece, he unpacks the sudden rise in China’s renminbi-denominated lending abroad.
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Assessing Geopolitical Risks
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 20 Nov 2025
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US hawks target Alibaba over military ties. The Nexperia dispute’s supply chain effect. Applied Materials' China revenue warning.
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Hostage To The Equity Market
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 20 Nov 2025
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Nvidia’s announcement of 21% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth in the three months to late October and of strong guidance for the current quarter will allay investor fears for the sustainability of the AI boom, at least in the near term. But doubts will soon return, in part because the outlook for US economic growth is increasingly hostage to the health of the equity market.
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AI Bashing
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 20 Nov 2025
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Artificial intelligence is everywhere, whether whispering through Main Street or roaring across Wall Street, as evidenced by Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings release. And with its rise comes a wave of critics saying the whole thing is a bubble on the verge of bursting, threatening to take trillions in investments down with it. But is this really insight, or just another round of AI bashing, asks Didier.
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Video: Hopes And Fears In The Middle East
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 19 Nov 2025 Video
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After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just. But although the resolution’s approval is an achievement in itself, the latest step does little to resolve the contradictions in Trump’s plan and the obstacles they present to progress. In this interview, Tom Holland assesses the chances of success and weighs the costs of a possible breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire.
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Takaichi, China And The Yen
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 19 Nov 2025
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The yen slipped to its weakest since the beginning of February early Wednesday in Asia as the market delivered its verdict on the uncompromising policies of Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Now, with the prospect that a protracted dispute with China could have a material negative effect on Japan’s economic performance, there is a risk the already deeply undervalued yen could weaken further towards its post-1990 low of ¥160.
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What’s New In The Plan For Tech
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 19 Nov 2025
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Top leader Xi Jinping has decided that promoting technology and modernizing industry will continue to be the top priorities in China’s next five-year plan, as they are in the current plan. But as Tilly explains in this piece, that doesn’t mean China is simply doubling down on its existing industrial policy. There are important changes in priorities and strategies: a greater focus on commercializing products to drive growth, and a stronger role for central government coordination.
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The Tide Ebbs For Private Credit
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 18 Nov 2025
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The cockroaches continue to scurry out of the skirting. On Monday, it emerged that the FBI is investigating a clutch of private credit borrowers. However, the focus on fraudulent borrowing and denials that these problems are endemic in private credit masks a deeper truth: high water has passed for the business, and the tide for private credit is now receding. The forces driving this ebb tide are positive for large US banks.
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