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Video: The Logic Of EU Bonds
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 3 Mar 2026 Video
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For Emmanuel Macron, jointly issued European Union bonds is an idea whose time has come. For Friedrich Merz, however, broad mutualization of European public debt remains a step too far. What is interesting is that despite these predictable positions in Paris and Berlin, a growing logic may nonetheless be pushing Europe toward larger-scale EU bond issuance.
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Venture Capital Rebounds
Tilly Zhang, Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Mar 2026
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After three consecutive years of decline, China’s private-equity and venture-capital fundraising picked up in 2025. In this piece, Tilly and Xiaoxi unpack the drivers of the recent increase. They argue that the recovery is likely to continue in the coming months, bolstered by a combination of improving investor sentiment and greater government financing.
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Dire Straits
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 3 Mar 2026
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Donald Trump said late Monday that the US bombing campaign against Iran could last “four to five weeks. But we have capability to go far longer than that.” This means businesses and investors must contemplate the effect on energy markets if oil and liquefied natural gas traffic through the Straits of Hormuz remains suspended for a month or more. The impact will be mixed, but for some energy importers, the picture is ugly.
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Does Iran Change The Investment Environment?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 2 Mar 2026
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So far this year, all the ingredients seemed to be in place for an epic inflationary boom. Now, suddenly the events in the Persian Gulf raise the threat of a meaningful surge in energy prices and a consequent shift from inflationary boom to inflationary bust. Louis assesses what this means for asset allocators.
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The Renminbification Of Hong Kong
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 27 Feb 2026
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Chinese president Xi Jinping wants the renminbi to “attain reserve currency status.” At first this looks like an impossible ask; China still operates capital controls, and the pool of renminbi assets readily available in international markets for foreign reserve managers to purchase is limited. In this report, Louis looks at how Hong Kong’s financial system could provide a crucial workaround.
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Chinese Consumers Perk Up A Little
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Research | 27 Feb 2026
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China’s domestic demand may be generally lackluster, but there is one area of notable recent improvement: household consumption growth started to accelerate in late 2025. Ernan argues that the latest slate of travel and spending data from the lunar new year public holiday, which ran from February 15 to 23, provides some further evidence of a gradual pickup.
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Webinar: China Sets The Agenda
Christopher Beddor, Wei He, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Research | 27 Feb 2026 Video
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At the beginning of March, China’s government will announce its economic agenda and budget for 2026, as well as its next five-year plan. The leadership is sounding confident, with some reason, but there are many questions on policy. Exports are booming and industrial upgrading is proceeding, but the anti-involution campaign is scrambling incentives. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is cautious, even though growth has been slowing. Officials are talking up their plans to boost consumption, but household sentiment is still weak. In this webinar, our China team assess these and other issues, and explain what to expect from China macro and markets in 2026.
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Washington’s AI Anxiety Rises
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 26 Feb 2026
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Trump resists calls for tougher restrictions on China tech; ByteDance expands AI hires in the US; India’s AI summit had little China; Xiaomi doubles down on indigenous efforts.
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The Global Portfolio Regatta
Didier Darcet / Gavekal Research | 26 Feb 2026
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Managing a global investment portfolio is less like a leisurely sail and more like competing in a yachting regatta, says Didier. The aim is to outperform peers but, above all, to stay afloat when weather conditions deteriorate. Performance matters; survival matters more. The real failure is not underperformance but losing control when calm seas turn violent. This is the context for Didier to outline a shift in his portfolio positioning.
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Sweden As An Indicator Of Capital Flows
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 26 Feb 2026
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The debate over whether global investors are beginning to reduce exposure to US assets has intensified. After a decade of US equity outperformance, dollar strength and deep capital market dominance, signs of diversification are emerging. Sweden offers an unusually clear window into this change.
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