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Understanding Export Controls And Loopholes
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 13 Nov 2025
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Reality check of Beijing’s Nvidia chip ban. Chinese chip toolmaker fears a hawkish Tokyo. China’s rare earth controls remain potent
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Video: An Increasingly Fragile US Consumer
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 13 Nov 2025 Video
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Broad US consumption data remain solid, but signs of strain are emerging at the lower end of the spending spectrum, where companies serving that segment are underperforming or failing. In this video interview, Kai Xian examines the dynamics of this two-speed US consumption environment, rooted in policy choices, and reviews mitigation efforts aimed at lower-income households. He concludes that consumption is becoming an increasingly fragile pillar of the US economy.
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A Limited Case For Extending Eurozone Duration
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 13 Nov 2025
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Has the time come to extend duration in eurozone fixed income? The question has persisted since the bond market sell-off in 2022. Over this period, investors have found short-term tactical opportunities to extend maturities. But for those with a longer-term horizon, maintaining a short-duration position has remained the more effective strategy.
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The Wrong Question To Ask
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 12 Nov 2025
One of the questions that Louis hears most often from clients is whether—and when—China will catch up with the US on the latter’s chosen battlefield: high-end semiconductors. In short, can China ever bypass the ASML–TSMC–Nvidia triumvirate? He wonders if this is the wrong question to ask. Might it be that that the real competition between the two powers is not in specific product categories but at the level of the whole industrial system? In this piece, he explores the macro implications of such a struggle.
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After The Shutdown
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 12 Nov 2025
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After the Senate voted to keep the federal government funded until January 30, the longest ever US government shutdown seems set to end with a whimper. The House of Representatives will vote on the bill as early as Wednesday, with US president Donald Trump already declaring “a very big victory.” Kai Xian looks at the near-term impacts from this development.
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The Modi Premium At Risk
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 11 Nov 2025
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This week’s election in Bihar, India’s poorest state with a population the size of Mexico, is emerging as a critical test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political resilience and policy direction. With the United States’ 50% tariffs straining India’s economic outlook, a populist shift in policymaking is taking hold which threatens a potential derating of Indian equities.
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Webinar: The Rally In Latin American Debt
Louis-Vincent Gave, Alexandre Larrain / Gavekal Research | 11 Nov 2025 Video
A year ago, Alexandre Larrain and Louis-Vincent Gave, sat down to discuss the opportunity in Latin American debt markets. Since then, the region's most important bond markets have rallied and important elections are set to occur in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil. Against this backdrop, is the opportunity set in Latin American debt still attractive? Alexandre and Louis discussed these issues and other questions in this Latam Debt webinar.
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The Message From More Growth Targets
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 11 Nov 2025
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Xi Jinping has changed his mind about GDP growth targets. Judging by recent statements and documents around the upcoming five-year plan, the government is now reverting to specific quantitative goals for long-term growth, after effectively ditching such targets in the last plan. Andrew unpacks what these latest goals suggest about the policy stance for the coming years.
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US Exceptionalism: Trump, Keynes, Soros Or Lincoln?
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 10 Nov 2025
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Anatole says he was completely wrong to warn about a potentially treacherous financial hurricane season in 2025. Investors seem increasingly wowed not just by the US’s superior economic and financial performance, but also its ability to defy all normal concepts of free trade and responsible fiscal management. In this piece, Anatole seeks to explain this shift with reference to George Soros’s theory of reflexivity.
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The Problem With Consumer Subsidies
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 10 Nov 2025
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Policymakers have signaled that they want to continue with policies boosting consumer demand. One straightforward option is to extend the most effective consumer-stimulus scheme deployed so far: the consumer goods trade-in program. But Ernan argues that there’s a hitch: the subsidies are only boosting demand for autos—and providing a windfall to retailers for everything else.
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