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Silver Linings For Europe’s Exporters
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 28 Oct 2025
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It has been a tough year for Europe’s exporters. On one hand, they have been hammered by US tariffs. On the other, the appreciation of the euro has eroded their competitiveness against Chinese rivals. There is no reason to believe these headwinds will disappear in 2026, but despite widespread pessimism, the picture for European exporters is not wholly gloomy.
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East-West Differences And The Gold Price
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 28 Oct 2025
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Given the recent surge—and subsequent pullback—in gold prices, it is unsurpisingly a hot topic. Louis offers his thoughts on the key drivers of the gold bull market by analyzing demand and supply dynamics of gold ETFs and major countries' monetary policies.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Tom Miller, Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 27 Oct 2025
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President Donald Trump arrived in Malaysia on Sunday for an Asian swing that will include his first second-term visit to an Asean summit and a meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping where he will probably sign a trade-war truce. Yet Tom Miller contends he will have a hard time restoring the credibility of the US strategic commitment to Southeast Asia. Tom Holland considers another test for US credibility in the shape of new oil sanctions on Russia, which markets seem to think will be ineffective.
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Conflicting Policy Choices For 2026
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 27 Oct 2025
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China’s key macroeconomic policy decisions in the next couple of months will be to set the GDP growth target and the government budget target for 2026. Wei argues that policymakers want to continue strong growth, but also do not want to do a lot of fiscal stimulus. The most likely compromise is to keep the GDP growth target at 5%, and use the technicalities of fiscal policy to deliver some additional stimulus.
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Piggybacking On Trump’s Policies
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 27 Oct 2025
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The list of the US government’s interventions in the private sector seems to get longer each week. In general, the administration has sought to justify its interventions as strategic necessities. The question for investors is whether the US government’s increasing activity in the private sector offers opportunities, or whether it poses unacceptable risks.
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Unpacking The Nexperia Dispute
Laila Khawaja, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 24 Oct 2025
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Understanding the Nexperia dispute, Beijing seeks sensitive trade data via probe, and robots are rising, again
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Rates For Mates
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 24 Oct 2025
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The world is entering a new era of great-power competition between the US and China, with each seeking to use its financial muscle to extend its influence among the indebted countries of the global south. While there are plenty of risks for developing economies, this competition promises to transform conditions for emerging market sovereigns from a lenders’ market to a borrowers’ market.
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Webinar: China’s Macro And Market Disconnect
Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley, Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 24 Oct 2025 Video
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China's equity markets have gone on a renewed tear since July—just when its economic data started to soften. The disconnect between macro and markets has only widened since then, with local traders getting more excited and economists more concerned. Our China team assessed the changing landscape.
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The S&P 500 Gini Index
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 23 Oct 2025
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The well-known Gini coefficient measures income inequality on a scale from 0% to 100%. In this note, Didier calculates an S&P 500 Gini index for market capitalization, and finds that the concentration of market cap among a few giant names is reaching what may well be its upper limit. However, a rebalancing need not be bad news for investors.
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Video: Faster And Slower In Southeast Asia
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 23 Oct 2025 Video
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Fresh back from a tour of Southeast Asia, Tom Miller offers a study in contrasts between Vietnam and Indonesia. While both have new leaders each a year into his term and each promising economic reform, the two countries’ economic trajectories are starkly different. Tom provides some notes from the road.
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