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Video: Indonesia's Identity Crisis
Rohan Daswani / Gavekal Research | 22 Oct 2026 Video
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Indonesia’s equity market has suffered a sharp sell-off after MSCI warned that persistent concerns over ownership transparency, market manipulation and weak regulatory enforcement could see the country stripped of its emerging market status. In this video interview, Rohan discusses whether Jakarta’s latest reforms can restore investor confidence, the risks of further capital outflows and currency weakness, and what Indonesia’s troubles mean for other emerging markets.
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Beijing Draws New Boundaries For AI Exports
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 22 Oct 2026
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Beijing’s proposed AI export controls aim to protect national security and core technologies while preserving open-source commitment and overseas commercialization. Their impact will depend heavily on implementation. The many ambiguities in the draft rules could discourage Chinese firms’ international activity and Chinese open models’ overseas adoption, at a time when American open-weight alternatives are expanding.
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Higher Yields And Corporate Profits
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 22 Oct 2026
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Equity investors were served a morsel of optimism Wednesday, as Meta’s chairman Mark Zuckerberg claimed the company’s AI investments “are paying off". Yet after a sharp sell-off in the shares of indebted AI names, many investors remain jittery. They fear that with equity market performance powered heavily by the AI capex boom, higher yields will erode US corporate profits, triggering a broader sell-off.
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Complexity Versus Hierarchy
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 22 Oct 2026
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In a world of growing complexity, identifying the few variables that really matter can be more useful than deploying ever greater computing power, says Didier. Building on Charles Gave’s recent revival of the Misery index, he argues that a simple combination of unemployment and inflation can explain much of the variation in expected equity returns across the US, Japan, Germany and France.
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London Conference: October 2026
Research Team, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Research | 22 Oct 2026 Video
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At our latest conference in London, panelists examined mounting global macro risks, from the US AI investment boom to France's fiscal troubles and rising bond yields. They assessed the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, China's electrification drive and the scramble for critical minerals. Charles held a fireside chat on the changing global monetary order and its implications for investors. Panelists discussed China's technological ambitions and growing tensions with the US. And finally, they explored what these developments mean for portfolio construction and global investment strategy.
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What Would It Take For Another Euro Crisis?
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 21 Oct 2026
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The widening of French sovereign bond spreads has revived fears about another euro crisis, but today's eurozone is far better equipped to contain financial contagion than it was in 2012. The ECB's expanded financial backstops, greater European integration and the moderation of Euroskeptic parties all help explain why markets are treating France's difficulties as a national credit problem rather than a threat to the monetary union, says Cedric.
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The Ultimate Contrarian Trade?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 Oct 2026
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French generals are said to spend their lives fighting the last war. The same could probably be said for European Union policymakers, who have adopted measures to limit the sale of Chinese hybrid vehicles in Europe. Louis asks: how sustainable will such policies prove to be over the medium to long term?
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The Struggle To Commoditize AI
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Oct 2026
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The recent jitters in global equity markets show that investors are getting more worried about whether companies are going to be able to recoup their enormous investments in artificial intelligence. And those worries are not confined to the US, as China’s leading AI companies' share prices have also suffered in recent months. As Tilly explains in this piece, Chinese developers are facing capacity constraints that limit how much revenue they can generate from the strategy.
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On Common Myths
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 20 Oct 2026
A country's foundational myths can help bind its people together, but when those shared narratives begin to fracture, the consequences can extend to financial markets. Louis explores how shifting national identities and political allegiances are influencing capital flows, from growing doubts about the US as a benevolent hegemon to the contrasting experiences of Canada, China, Germany and Japan. France presents a particularly troubling case, with deep divisions over its national identity compounding political and fiscal strains and potentially undermining investor confidence.
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Why Bonds Respond To The Fed, Not To Inflation
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 20 Oct 2026
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Two weeks ago, Anatole argued that the bond bear market was due for at least a tactical reprieve because investors were overestimating the number of likely Federal Reserve rate hikes. By sheer good luck, the US bond market turned on that very day. Meanwhile, the near-perfect correlation between US bond yields and expectations of Fed policy has continued in the market movements of nominal and real 10-year yields. Today he asks: why has the bond market become a slave to Fed expectations?
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