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Financial Versus Operational Leverage
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 25 Mar 2025
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Bull markets are either driven by increasing “operational leverage,” usually because of the application of technology, or by the expansion of “financial leverage,” usually concomitant with growing bank balance sheets. Interestingly this year, financials have started to outperform tech stocks. Is this a sign that the world may be shifting from a bull market led by improving operational leverage to one propelled by growing financial leverage?
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The Market Liquidity Drain Reverses
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 25 Mar 2025
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Success has many fathers, and there are several plausible paternal claimants to the 40% rise in Chinese equities over the last six months. Thomas argues that one is the substantial increase in net liquidity in onshore markets, which policymakers are now touting. But he explores several reasons to be skeptical that the shift will be lasting.
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A Race To The Bottom? Not So Fast
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 24 Mar 2025
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As Donald Trump’s trade “liberation day” approaches, observers are increasingly wondering whether the escalating tariff war could cause a US, or even global, recession. The answer is that the prospect of an all-out trade conflict does increase the probability of recession both in the US and abroad. But for now, recession should not be investors’ base case.
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Asia’s Coming Deflationary Boom
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 Mar 2025
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Increasingly able to pay for energy in their own currencies, Asian countries no longer need to accumulate US dollar reserves. This means they no longer need to undervalue their currencies, which points to the development of an epic deflationary boom in Asia. Investors should overweight long-duration assets in the region and prepare for a prized triple merit scenario, writes Charles.
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The Nasdaq-Crypto Correlation
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 Mar 2025
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What role should cryptocurrencies play in a portfolio? This is a tough question for capital allocators, because for most of their existence, cryptos have behaved like a three-times leveraged bet on the Nasdaq. Louis examines this correlation and outlines four main scenarios for where things go from here.
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Fighting The Fertility Decline
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Mar 2025
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China’s government is stepping up measures to support families and encourage childbirth, as the nation’s sharp decline in fertility draws increasing concern. But Ernan argues that what is depressing fertility rates is the same set of social and economic changes that are leading to fewer children across the world, meaning it will be difficult for subsidies to reverse the fertility decline.
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The Hutchison Gut Punch
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2025
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From a Western investor’s perspective, the excoriation of Li and CK Hutchison's sale of its ports business might feel like “déjà vu all over again.” With a nice equity bull market under way, and with China’s leaders telling whoever will listen that from now on growth will be driven by consumption, why did they feel compelled to remind everyone that business leaders must above all serve the national interest?
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Video: Are EMs Back?
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2025 Video
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It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
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Webinar: Good But Not Great In India
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 19 Mar 2025 Video
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Having been stuck in a funk over the last year, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. Yet investors continue to fret about the effects of US tariffs and increasingly see better opportunities in China’s cheaper equity market. In this webinar, Udith and Tom seek to disentangle these factors and offer views on whether this is the time to be playing India.
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China On The Nile
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 19 Mar 2025
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The US has long been by far the most influential external power in the Middle East. But in recent years US ties to Arab countries have frayed badly, even as China has become increasingly important as a trade, investment and diplomatic partner for the region. How this process is playing out in Egypt is likely to be repeated across the Middle East, writes Tom Miller, freshly returned from a research visit to Cairo.
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