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Where Will The Next Shortage Be?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 16 Jul 2026
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Markets are increasingly being driven by one question: what will the world not have enough of next? Louis argues that investors should focus on identifying the next scarcity asset before the consensus does. He says that the shift into an inflationary environment is making shortages a powerful driver of returns. From semiconductors and refined oil products to rare earths, copper and currencies, he suggests which shortages are already priced in, which are being overlooked and where the next opportunities may emerge.
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The Meaning Of Higher Real Yields
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 16 Jul 2026
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US real yields are rising. Long-term nominal yields are trending higher, too. But nominal yields on 20-year and 30-year treasuries are still within their ranges of the past three years. In contrast, the yields on long-term US treasury inflation-protected securities have broken above their post- 2008-crisis highs. This means the real cost of capital in the US is rising. Why is this happening? And what are the implications of the increase?
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China Regulates AI Companion Agents
Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 16 Jul 2026
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On July 15, ByteDance and Alibaba removed their user-defined AI agent features from their chatbots Doubao and Qwen. The move is widely seen as a proactive compliance response to eliminate regulatory risk as user-created AI agents, which are large in number and fragmented in styles and functions, are difficult to review and continuously monitor.
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Video: Breakdown Or Buying Opportunity For US Bonds?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 15 Jul 2026 Video
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Tuesday brought a series of developments with major implications for the US interest rate outlook, from the latest CPI release and the US president's apparent Taco over his Strait of Hormuz toll threat to Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual Congressional testimony. In this interview, Will explains what these events mean for interest rates and the outlook for US bonds.
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The Growth Bounceback, Delayed
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 15 Jul 2026
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China’s GDP growth slowed in Q2 due to the oil shock. Economic indicators for June show that while surging global demand for AI-related exports supported the industrial sector, refining output and consumer demand are weak. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that the expected economic rebound after the oil shock looks to be delayed, but policymakers do not yet appear ready to introduce much stronger stimulus in response.
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Important Recent Developments
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 15 Jul 2026
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After a number of tumultuous months, it seems that financial markets have decided to take a breather to watch the football World Cup. Big currencies, key stock markets, and even energy prices and gold are essentially where they have been for the past month or months. Meanwhile, Louis argues, a number of important events have occurred in recent days which mean that this past stability is unlikely to last.
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A Stupid World
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 14 Jul 2026
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Charles argues that today's seemingly irrational markets are the logical consequence of decades of misguided monetary and fiscal policy, leaving investors trapped in a system increasingly driven by momentum rather than genuine price discovery. He contends that the US dollar is steadily losing its traditional monetary functions, while policymakers are, in effect, asking foreign investors to finance America's deficits in exchange for a stake in the country's AI-driven future.
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Japan’s ‘Invest More At Home’ Plan
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 14 Jul 2026
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On Friday, after Japanese finance minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would encourage domestic institutions to invest more domestically, the yen strengthened. Then on Monday, as market participants realized that the government had no immediate plans the yen weakened again. Should Katayama’s words be disregarded entirely? Udith seeks to answer that question.
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Five Questions On China Biotech
Tom Hancock, AJ Cortese, Huang Shichan / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 13 Jul 2026
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Investors have cooled on China’s biotechnology sector, after a spectacular run-up in Hong Kong biotech stocks in early 2025. This is a needed correction: China’s biotech companies are technologically strong, but commercially immature. Also in today’s China Tech Brief: drones and EVs.
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Will The AI Boom Prove Inflationary Or Deflationary?
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 13 Jul 2026
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Is the AI boom ultimately inflationary or deflationary? While heavy capital spending and competition for scarce resources are currently adding to inflationary pressures, the longer-term productivity gains from AI could eventually reverse that dynamic. With Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh now making AI’s impact on productivity, employment and inflation a central focus of monetary policy, understanding where we are in this transition has become increasingly important for investors, say Will and KX.
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