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The Asian Crisis Reverses
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 May 2025
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On Friday the Taiwanese dollar suddenly gapped up by 4.4% against the US dollar, and on Monday morning it extended the rally. This move spilled over to Asian currencies including the Korean won, Singapore dollar and yen. Louis examines what could explain these moves, and the potential investment implications.
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The Ant And The Grasshopper
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 2 May 2025
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Like the grasshopper in Aesop’s fable, the US has long lived in the moment, while the more diligent ants have forgone consumption to accumulate assets. The result, writes Didier, is today’s wildly skewed international investment positions. Exchange rates provide a relatively painless mechanism of adjustment.
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Video: What Hope For Deregulation?
Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 2 May 2025 Video
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In both the United States and the European Union, the authorities are promising deregulation—or regulatory “simplification” in EU language—to unleash productive economic forces. But in the US, the administration’s record of policy delivery is patchy, and in Europe regulation is often seen as the raison d’être of EU officialdom. Tan Kai Xian and Cedric Gemehl asses the prospects for deregulatory progress in each market and examine the implications for investors.
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Trade War Triage
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 2 May 2025
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When on April 9 Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal” tariffs on everyone but China to allow 90 days for negotiation, he guaranteed three months of uncertainty. So how should investors proceed in this high-volatility environment, overshadowed by looming policy risk? Some basic trade war triage may help, as in addition to the United States, the rest of the world can be divided into three risk buckets.
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Substituting For Secondary Housing
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 2 May 2025
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China’s new-housing sales have stabilized, and policymakers have vowed to cut interest rates. Does this combination mean a meaningful rebound is ahead? Xiaoxi argues that the answer is probably not, as the relentless shift in demand towards the secondary market means rate cuts might mostly just boost sales of existing units.
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Huawei Has More Chip Surprises
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 1 May 2025
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Beijing protects domestic industries with tariff exemptions. TSMC’s Arizona losses risk US chipmakers’ profitability. Huawei plans new AI chip with SMIC’s 6nm process.
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Southeast Asia’s Tariffs Dilemma
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 1 May 2025
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Southeast Asia’s manufacturing economies are squarely in the crosshairs in the US China trade war. US trade negotiators are pressing them to stop transshipments from China, reduce offshoring by Chinese exporters, and cut their imports of Chinese intermediate goods. This puts the region’s countries in a tricky position, writes Tom Miller, as most are determined not to pick sides in the superpower rivalry.
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Swiss Role Spells Trouble
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 1 May 2025
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Since Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff broadside, the Swiss franc has appreciated 7% against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. For the Swiss National Bank, however, the franc’s latest surge is an unwelcome complication, importing deflation and pushing Switzerland’s headline consumer inflation rate uncomfortably close to the zero lower bound of the central bank’s 0-2% target range.
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Webinar: Investing After US Exceptionalism
Will Denyer, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 1 May 2025 Video
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There is a growing consensus that the age of American exceptionalism is over, and that after years of riding the US tech boom, investors should diversify their portfolios away from US markets. But geoeconomic tensions are running high around the globe, and the world’s two biggest economies are exchanging salvos in a nasty trade war. So, which non-US markets and assets should investors favor and which should they avoid?
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Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 30 Apr 2025
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The first four months of 2025 have seen a succession of shocks severely damage the narrative of US exceptionalism that has prevailed in global financial markets for the last few years. In this strategy chartbook, Gavekal analysts examine what this diminution of belief in the US means for US markets, and look at which assets and markets outside the US stand to benefit and which to avoid.
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