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Capitalizing On China’s Data Advantage In AI
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 8 Oct 2026
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Abundant data is often considered a Chinese advantage in AI: China’s vast consumer market and industrial base generate a lot of data and potential AI use cases. Yet data availability does not equal usability. Beijing sees the problem and is leading a nationwide effort to collect, process, govern, share, and trade high-quality datasets.
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The Chip War Comes To Southeast Asia
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 8 Oct 2026
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The US administration is moving to augment its controls on the export of semiconductors to China by closing a loophole which allows Chinese companies to rent advanced processing capacity from data centers in third countries. This places Southeast Asia in the eye of the storm, with potentially negative implications for everyone involved.
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Why Aren’t Stocks Plunging?
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 8 Oct 2026
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Early autumn is often a fearful time in markets. And this year, investors have plenty of reasons to be nervous, including shipping disruptions, high energy prices, accelerating inflation and rising interest rates. Yet global equities continue to advance. This week, Didier examines the market psychology of today’s bullish investors, and asks whether their positive sentiment is sustainable.
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Three Tests For French Spreads
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 8 Oct 2026
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After touching 150bp last Friday, October 2, the 10-year OAT-bund spread retraced to 127bp on Tuesday, before widening again to 139bp Thursday. Rather than beginning a meaningful tightening, the spread appears to be undergoing a repricing which is likely to see it settle somewhere between 125bp and 300bp. However, this is a remarkably broad range. So, what forces could push spreads towards either the floor or ceiling of this band over the coming months?
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Video: Into The Midterms
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 7 Oct 2026 Video
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With less than four weeks to go before the US midterm elections, the Democratic Party is odds-on to win the House of Representatives and may take control of the Senate too. In this video interview, Gavekal chief US economist Will Denyer looks at what the expected electoral swing to the Democrats is likely to mean for the possibility of impeachment hearings, fiscal policy, tariffs, financial regulation and legislation on artificial intelligence.
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India’s Hawkish Turn
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 7 Oct 2026
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The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate by 25bp to 5.5%—the first rate hike since February 2023. The Indian economy is well placed to absorb the impact of what should prove to be a relatively shallow rate-hike cycle. But Udith and Tom argue that two main risks still threaten the otherwise upbeat economic outlook for the country.
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A Two-Track Property Stabilization
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 7 Oct 2026
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An end to China’s long-running decline in housing prices now appears in sight, at least for one corner of the market: prices of both new and existing housing in the four Tier 1 cities have stabilized and even rebounded some in recent months. But Xiaoxi argues that many other cities substantially overbuilt housing during the boom, and are on a very different trajectory; their housing prices will probably not stabilize for quite a while to come.
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The Bolsonaro Swing
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 7 Oct 2026
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Since it became clear that Flávio Bolsonaro is now a lock to win the Brazilian presidency in the second round of the election, Petrobras shares have jumped 10%, the EWZ Brazilian ETF is up 12.5%, the Brazilian real has jumped by 4.6% and Brazilian bond yields have fallen -133bp. This is a massive swing to the right that follows similar shifts in El Salvador, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia. Louis looks at the results and highlights the main takeaways.
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Reasons To Start Buying Bonds
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 6 Oct 2026
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After four and a half years of steadfast bearishness on bonds, Anatole argues that after the latest sell-off, the relentless rise in US yields may be coming to an end—at least for the next year or two. This is not because fundamentals have improved. Rather it is because the bond market no longer trades on fundamentals, but on short term expectations of Federal Reserve policy, and the Fed has a mandate to preserve US government solvency. In this report, he explains why it now makes sense to start buying bonds again.
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The Problem For France
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 6 Oct 2026
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As the spreads on French government debt blew out last Thursday, Cedric Gemeh asked “How Wide Can French Spreads Get?” Charles has nothing to add to Cedric's conclusions about the specifically French part of the problem. But he is very interested in the broader underlying malady, of which France’s current complaint is today’s most visible symptom.
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