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Geoeconomic Monitor: The Middle East AI Gambit
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Tom Miller, Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 23 May 2025
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Donald Trump’s swing through the Middle East last week saw his administration agree to the development of a major data center project in the UAE, and with it shift US policy on technology export controls, say Arthur and Laila. In the same visit, the US president seemed to consolidate US diplomatic preeminence, yet Tom Miller says that the influence of China remains significant. As a Damocles sword is held over Iran by both the US and Israel, Tom Holland considers the endgame for the US-Iran nuclear talks. Lastly, Tom Miller considers the strategic fallout resulting from the recent India-Pakistan military engagement.
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The EU’s Difficult Trade Rebalancing
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 23 May 2025
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The final form of Donald Trump’s tariffs remain a work in progress but, at the very least, the US’s trade with the rest of the world is set to involve more friction. For the European Union, one strategy to mitigate the hit is to lessen trade encumbrances with other economies. Cedric crunches the numbers and argues that these efforts will be a salve, not a panacea for the EU's trade troubles if China is not involved.
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The Wrong Kind Of Competition
Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 23 May 2025
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The power of competition to discipline prices is indisputable—but can prices be influenced by controls on competition? China’s government is endorsing a theory that downward pressures on prices are being worsened by excess competition, and that official efforts to reduce those pressures are necessary. But Andrew, Ernan and Tilly argue that such a focus isn’t going to move the needle on what is ultimately a problem of deficient demand and excess investment.
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Chinese Firms Advance Amid Escalating Sanctions
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 22 May 2025
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Xiaomi’s 3nm self-developed mobile SoC is ready. Xiaomi’s founder and CEO Lei Jun on May 19 announced Xiaomi’s Xring O1 mobile SoC on his Weibo, China’s equivalent for X.
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The Stock Markets Inside The Valeriepieris Circle
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 22 May 2025
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The Valeriepieris Circle is an imaginary 2,500-mile-radius area centered in East Asia, famously containing more than half the world’s population and an outsized share of its geopolitical weight. Charles has written on this topic in recent months and indeed addressed it earlier today in our Daily note. In this report, Didier uses to concept to ask whether there is a challenger region to the US in terms of equity market performance.
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Video: The Return Of French Political Risk
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 22 May 2025 Video
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Political risk is once again rearing its head in France. With the new leader of the Republicans pushing to the right, and with a new leader of the Socialists likely to track to the left, the minority coalition of prime minister François Bayrou is looking less secure. With the next round of budget negotiations this fall a probable crunch point, Cedric Gemehl examines the forces at work and assesses the risks for French debt and equity markets.
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The Valeriepieris Circle And Indian Financial Markets
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 22 May 2025
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Charles has used the “Valeriepieris circle” to describe the economic region in which he expects economic activity to significantly accelerate due to a better use of land, labor and capital over the next decade. India is part of this circle of activity, which raises the question: is India part of this new Asian monetary system, or not? In this piece he addresses the main factor affecting the cost of long-term capital in India.
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Out With A Bang, Not A Whimper?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 May 2025
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A decade ago, the consensus belief was that global growth was bound to disappoint. A decade on, the only conclusion one can draw is that it has been a tough decade for fixed-income investors in the world’s developed markets: in both nominal and local currency terms, all major bond markets are now sitting on negative absolute returns.
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State Developers Start To Stabilize
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 May 2025
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China’s housing sales have broadly stabilized for almost a year now. Does that mean the worst is now over for developer finances? Xiaoxi argues that for private-sector developers, which have suffered the most, probably not quite yet. But for state-owned developers, some financial stabilization is now in sight.
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Tax Cuts Versus Tariff Hikes
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 20 May 2025
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US equities and treasuries brushed off Moody’s rating downgrade of US sovereign debt as old news and inconsequential. What does matter for investors is how negotiations over the domestic budget and, separately, import tariffs play out—and their effect on US budget deficits.
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