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Beware Catching Indonesia’s Falling Knife
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 30 Jan 2026
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Indonesian equities appear to have stabilized after the worst two-day rout in nearly three decades wiped out US$80bn in market value. In response to the sell-off, regulators have fought to avert a downgrade to frontier-market status by global index provider MSCI. According to Udith and Tom, there are good reasons to avoid catching this falling knife.
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The Auntie Of All Trade Deals
Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 30 Jan 2026
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In New Delhi on Tuesday to sign a trade agreement between the European Union and India, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the pact as “the mother of all deals.” Well, you can’t expect officials who have spent years laboring over the negotiations to undersell an agreement. But the hyperbole will leave investors wondering just how big a deal this really is.
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Which Investment Data To Believe?
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 30 Jan 2026
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China’s data on fixed-asset investment have become, literally, unbelievable: in the six months or so since the FAI data started showing a decline, other indicators show the economy trundling along, and the government has made only incremental adjustments to macro policy. Andrew argues that the national accounts, while also opaque and problematic, are probably closer to the truth at the moment.
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Webinar: The Global Reach Of A Renminbi Rerating
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 30 Jan 2026 Video
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For years, the extreme undervaluation of the Chinese currency has been the biggest single anomaly in global financial markets. In recent weeks, however, the renminbi has begun to appreciate at an accelerating pace, with the Chinese authorities setting their daily fixing at successively stronger rates. By the standards of other currencies, the moves so far are small. But the implications are far-reaching, and potentially even epochal. In this webinar Louis-Vincent Gave unpacks the importance of the renminbi’s exchange rate for global investors.
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The Big Long 2.0
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 30 Jan 2026
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It has been a turbulent start to 2026. But beneath the geopolitical sound and fury, global macro conditions are nicely aligned for an equity bull market. In particular, notes Didier, in the third quarter of 2025, productivity growth in the US outpaced real GDP growth—a rare and potentially powerful signal.
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China’s Vision For AI-Powered Manufacturing
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 29 Jan 2026
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Beijing wants AI to supercharge manufacturing; China sees record transformer export; Chinese humanoids seek money in rentals.
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Video: Middle Powers And The New World Disorder
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 29 Jan 2026 Video
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In late January, Keir Starmer paid his first visit to China as UK prime minister, proclaiming his desire for “a more sophisticated relationship” between London and Beijing. In making his trip, Starmer becomes the latest middle-power head of government to head to China bearing a conciliatory message as relations with the US deteriorate. In this video interview, Tom Miller explores how this attempt at geoeconomic derisking could play out, and examines what it all means for global investors.
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On The False Price Of The Yen
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 29 Jan 2026
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As John Maynard Keynes is popularly believed to have said, “the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.” And if ever there was a false price in an irrational market, says Charles, it is surely the yen’s exchange rate against the euro.
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The Birth Of African Demand
Joe Studwell / Gavekal Research | 28 Jan 2026
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In the second part of his argument for Africa’s growth prospects, Joe Studwell shows that, despite various problems, many African countries have begun a self-sustaining economic cycle based on vastly improved agricultural output and the rise of local food-processing industries. The big question now is whether African nations will have enough state capacity to build up a manufacturing base.
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Behind The Dollar’s Decline
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 28 Jan 2026
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The US dollar took another leg down in Asian trading Wednesday. The DXY index dropped to 96, down -3% from levels around 98.8 as recently as last Thursday, breaking decisively below its trading range of the last seven months. Why is this weakness occurring now? And will it persist?
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