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The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 9 Apr 2026
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Facing increased volatility across asset classes as a result of the Iran war, money managers may want to take risk off the table by shifting to a neutral portfolio. But what is a truly neutral portfolio? Didier assesses the options and comes up with a clear winner.
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Video: What OpenClaw Means For Chinese AI
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Research | 9 Apr 2026 Video
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The open-source artificial-intelligence agent OpenClaw has become wildly popular in China and the wider AI world. In this interview, Tilly dissects how OpenClaw plays to the advantages of Chinese AI developers, and its implications for the economics of AI in China—as well as how it might encourage greater take-up of Chinese AI models more broadly.
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No Reprieve For Emerging Asia
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 9 Apr 2026
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Asian equities eased back Thursday morning following Wednesday’s euphoric reaction to news of the US-Iran ceasefire. This made sense; peace negotiations will not be plain sailing, and South and Southeast Asian economies remain vulnerable to the continued disruption of fuel and feedstock supplies from the Persian Gulf. Even if the ceasefire holds—a big “if”—it will likely take months for trade to recover to pre-war levels. For emerging Asia, this all adds up to a nasty mix of slower growth, higher inflation, rising debt and weaker currencies.
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Headwinds For The Rupee
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 8 Apr 2026
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The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% Wednesday and retained its neutral policy stance. It also reiterated its pledge to curb excessive volatility in the rupee, which was Asia’s worst-performing currency in March, before regulatory measures in early April squeezed out speculators betting on further weakness.
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The Peace That Passes All Understanding
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 8 Apr 2026
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Asian stocks jumped, oil prices fell and the US dollar softened early Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed a Pakistani-brokered 14-day ceasefire pending negotiations to secure a permanent peace deal. However, the obstacles to a lasting peace are formidable, and markets will continue to price in a substantial war risk premium for the time being.
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The Prospects For A Trend Change In Inflation
Andrew Batson, Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 8 Apr 2026
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Inflation has settled on a higher trend in most of the world so far in the 2020s. But China is the big exception: the inflationary pressures in 2021-22 quickly dissipated. Andrew and Wei examine whether the latest shock to global prices, from the energy crisis unleashed by the US and Israel’s war with Iran, will have a more lasting impact on China’s inflation.
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Quarterly Strategy Review: 1Q26
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 7 Apr 2026
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For investors, the first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in global energy prices. But there were plenty of other developments that also affected portfolio construction, including the shakeout in US private credit,the assertion of the US “Donroe doctrine,” the Japanese election victory of Sanae Takaichi, and the appreciation of the renminbi. In this quarterly review, Louis looks at how these and other events affected market performance, and examines the factors shaping asset allocation decisions over the rest of 2026.
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What Anchors Inflation Expectations?
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 7 Apr 2026
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It is now more than five weeks since Donald Trump said the war against Iran would last “four to five weeks,” and there is no end to the conflict in sight. The more the bombing goes on, and the longer the disruption to energy shipping lasts, the greater the risk of an inflationary bust becomes. Short and medium-term bond market inflation expectations have risen, but longer-term expectations have remained serenely untroubled. What explains the divergence?
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In Pharma, The US And China Need Each Other
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 6 Apr 2026
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China’s effective use of its rare earths leverage has created a cottage industry of figuring out what the next chokepoint might be. Pharmaceuticals are a popular candidate but there is very little chance that Beijing will seek to weaponize pharmaceutical ingredients. China depends at least as much on the US for pharma inputs as the US relies on China.
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The Path To An Inflationary Bust
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 6 Apr 2026
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It has been an odd five weeks on financial markets. Some prices have moved a lot, others not nearly as much. All things considered, global foreign exchange volatility remained fairly low. In short, the disparity in markets has been wide enough for investors to draw any possible conclusion. At least, this is the impression emanating from dozens of recent conversations with clients. Louis assesses the three prominent views.
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