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China’s AI Race, US’s AIDC Debate
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 5 Nov 2026
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Alibaba promotes token plans via livestream e-commerce. Do the US midterms spell the end of the datacenter boom? China debates the social value of “ByteDance Time”.
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Video: Investment Narratives After The Midterms
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 5 Nov 2026 Video
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The reaction of markets after the Democratic Party won control of both houses of the US Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections suggests investors expect big shifts in the two narratives that have dominated financial markets in 2026: the AI capex boom, and the US war against Iran and its impact on global energy prices. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines how these all-important narratives are set to evolve in the post-election environment.
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The Social Stability Question
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 Nov 2026
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With youth unemployment at record highs and wages stagnating, many Western investors fear that China is heading toward a period of serious social unrest. Louis says these concerns are greatly exaggerated, pointing to improving living standards outside major cities, an aging population, strong family support networks and Beijing’s ability to respond to discontent without stoking inflation.
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A New Misery Index
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 5 Nov 2026
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Financial markets are often unsettled by unexpected changes in economic growth and inflation, especially when the two move in opposite directions. In this report, Didier introduces a new version of the Misery index that measures these shifts and shows a notable relationship between economic surprises and global equity returns over the past two decades. While the indicator still points to a relatively favorable environment for equities, its recent deterioration suggests that investors should be getting cautious.
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What The Midterms Mean For China
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 5 Nov 2026
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The Democratic landslide in the US midterm elections will not change China policy—at least in the short run. The uneasy stalemate forged over the past year between Washington and Beijing should persist, at least through China’s Party Congress in the fall of 2027, and probably until the end of President Donald Trump’s term. But the next two years will see a lot of effort to think about what a post-Trump China policy should look like.
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A Blue Congress, Mr. Veto And A Treasury Twist
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 4 Nov 2026
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Despite the Democratic Party’s victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, the Republicans will still have the opportunity to push through legislation in the lame duck session between now and January, and after that Donald Trump will retain his presidential veto over new legislation. Will Denyer argues that despite the probability of adverse regulatory action at the state and local level, Tuesday’s election result may not prove as damaging as feared for the US AI capex boom, or for US assets more broadly.
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More Binary Risks In A World Of Binary Choices
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Nov 2026
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As the lack of GOP signs, Trump bumper stickers, and red hats—even in the conservative parts of America—augured in the run-up to this election cycle, the Republican Party took a beating in Tuesday’s midterms. It seems Donald Trump’s war to achieve regime change in Iran has ended up triggering regime change across the US. And the Nasdaq did not like it one bit, since Democratic Party candidates almost all run on opposing data centers.
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Macro Update: Running On Exports
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Nov 2026
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China’s GDP growth improved in Q3, and it is now almost certain that full-year growth will land within the targeted range. But that growth is highly uneven and heavily reliant on exports, while domestic consumption remains weak by almost any measure. Policymakers may well need to introduce more policy support in order to meet their growth goal next year. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team examine the state of China’s economy and the outlook going into 2027.
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A Silver Lining Or A Shovel?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 3 Nov 2026
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In recent meetings with North American clients, a persistent question has been: who are the mugs that will end up holding the bag on the now rapidly evolving French debt crisis? As things stand, for many investors France has now become “uninvestible”. But as with any investment thesis, it always makes sense to consider hoe it could be wrong. Or, in this case, how could France snatch survival from the jaws of the debt crisis it is facing?
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Trying To Save The Slow Bull Market
Thomas Gatley, Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 2 Nov 2026
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On November 2, the People’s Bank of China said it would provide additional financing through a swap facility for institutional investors to purchase equities, in a bid to arrest the stock-market decline. But Thomas and Xiaoxi argue that despite the PBOC’s intervention, China’s stock-market volatility has once again waylaid attempts to foster a “slow bull” market by demonstrating to households that equities are a risky asset.
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