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Found 12464 Results
Geoeconomic Monitor: Bracing For Tariff Man
Arthur Kroeber
,
Yanmei Xie
,
Tom Holland
,
Tom Miller
/
Gavekal Research
|
17 Jan 2025
Donald Trump will take office on Monday, vowing to use massive tariffs—and other forms of coercion—to remake the world on America-first lines. We are launching a biweekly Geoeconomics Monitor which will offer short takes on key developments. In today’s first edition, we assess the impacts of Trump’s tariff-based foreign policy, the impact on oil of prospective peace deals, and how emerging economies will hedge their bets.
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A Precarious Acceleration
Wei He
, Dragonomics Team
/
Gavekal Dragonomics
|
17 Jan 2025
China’s economic growth accelerated in Q4 mostly due to stimulus and export growth, but the economic indicators were not strong across the board. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that while growth momentum is likely to remain robust for at least the next month or two, there are substantial uncertainties ahead.
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Investors And Europe’s Populist Right
Cedric Gemehl
/
Gavekal Research
|
17 Jan 2025
Investor attitudes to Europe’s right wing populist parties have changed beyond all recognition. A decade ago, the prospect that Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, the French Rassemblement National or Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland might gain power would have sent most investors into conniptions. Today, investors barely shrug their shoulders. This is a complete reversal in the zeitgeist. There are two main reasons behind it, both with major implications for investors says Cedric.
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Video: Why Now For Russian Oil Sanctions?
Yanmei Xie
/
Gavekal Research
|
16 Jan 2025
International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after Joe Biden's administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether will be effective, and if the next administration will enforce them.
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Oil As A Currency
Charles Gave
/
Gavekal-IS
|
16 Jan 2025
A core argument for Charles is that economic activity can simply be thought of as energy transformed. By extension, primary energy production is the foundational activity in any modern economy. In an era of currency debasement, he extends this argument to portfolio theory and looks at economic values where oil is the base currency.
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Gold Strategy: The Challenge Of Valuing Gold (Part II)
Louis-Vincent Gave
,
Charles Gave
/
Gavekal Research
|
16 Jan 2025
This chartbook follows up on an earlier version published in September 2020. It covers much of the same ground but updates Louis’s and Charles’s views for current conditions and relative asset prices.
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Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me
Tan Kai Xian
/
Gavekal Research
|
16 Jan 2025
Wednesday’s gains in US treasuries can be characterized as a relief rally after December’s CPI inflation printed in line with the consensus, and core CPI came in a touch softer. Cheered by the news, market participants brought forward their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to June or July, from September or October previously, and duly bid up bonds. Kai Xian thinks the celebrations are premature.
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And The Razzies Go To…
Louis-Vincent Gave
/
Gavekal Research
|
15 Jan 2025
What sets Marlon Brando, Liza Minnelli and Leonardo DiCaprio apart from other actors? In addition to winning Oscars, each was honored with a “Razzie”: a Golden Raspberry for the most cringe performance of the year. In emulation of these outstanding accolades, Louis makes his own awards for the most disappointing investments of 2024.
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Biden’s Last Salvo Of Tech Protectionism
Yanmei Xie
/
Gavekal Research
|
15 Jan 2025
In President Biden’s final week in office, his Commerce Department has been rolling out a final volley of technology restrictions aimed at China. The goals are to slow China’s progress, lock in controls that incoming President Trump will find it hard to reverse in any new trade deal, and solidify a trade bloc that excludes China. The risk is that the rules backfire and much of the world decides it would rather buy cheap Chinese tech than join American protectionism.
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Taxis Prepare For Takeoff
Tilly Zhang
/
Gavekal Dragonomics
|
15 Jan 2025
China’s world-beating success with electric vehicles has whetted the appetite of its industrial planners for bold bets on new types of personal transportation. Tilly examines their efforts to develop the “low-altitude economy” and argues that it may not be too long before electric air taxis are seen in the skies of major Chinese cities.
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