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Video: Behind The US Diesel Dilemma
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 24 Sep 2026 Video
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After the average US pump price for diesel topped US$6.50 per gallon, politicians are increasingly calling for restrictions on US fuel exports in a bid to bring down prices for businesses and consumers ahead of November’s midterm elections. But while export controls might provide some temporary relief, any reduction in US prices will be short-lived, and will come at the cost of intense pain among US trading partners.
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China’s Anti-Dumping Calculus
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 24 Sep 2026
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On September 7, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the preliminary ruling of its anti-dumping investigation into semiconductor-grade dichlorosilane imports from Japan, finding that Japanese imports were “dumped” and caused “material injury” to China’s domestic industry.
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Amathia
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 24 Sep 2026
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Amathia is not simply ignorance, but a refusal to learn from new information and past mistakes, says Didier. History offers plenty of examples, but the same problem can be seen today in education, politics and our response to rapid technological change. As artificial intelligence reshapes the world, he contends that the ability to learn and adapt will matter more than ever.
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Another Blow For Bonds?
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 24 Sep 2026
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The 10-year US treasury yield broke through the 5% level to hit 5.11%, its highest since the outbreak of the credit crunch in July 2007. With inflation pressure persistent and the Federal Reserve on a tightening track, yields could rise further in the near term. In addition, there are growing signs that the US labor market may be set to tighten, pushing both wage growth and inflation higher.
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The Four Costs That Matter
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 23 Sep 2026
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Revisiting his framework for comparing economies through the costs of capital, labor, energy and government, Louis says that China now enjoys striking advantages over the US in the first three. Yet policy uncertainty has kept Chinese consumers and businesses cautious. , while the US risks moving in the opposite direction. He argues that a narrowing of the long-standing gap in policy predictability between China and the US could have profound implications for global markets.
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Worse Than A Crime
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 23 Sep 2026
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On Monday, Louis advanced several possible reasons for the preternatural calm of financial markets in the face of the deepening energy crisis, which has now seen crude oil prices climb more than 60% year-to-date, and US diesel prices rise almost 90%. To his explanations, Charles adds his own perspective, based on Gavekal’s longstanding Four Quadrants framework for portfolio managers.
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The Export Wave Is Cresting
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 23 Sep 2026
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China’s latest extraordinary export wave is showing signs of cresting, with headline export growth leveling off. The boom in AI-driven exports is not over yet, but current super-high growth rates will probably slow in the coming months, Andrew argues in this piece. That’s mainly due to prices of memory chips, now the biggest single swing factor for China’s exports, though one with limited implications for its competitiveness in other goods.
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The Nordic Model Under Deglobalization
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 22 Sep 2026
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The Nordic economies may look vulnerable to the same industrial pressures weighing on Germany, but much of their adjustment took place during the 2010s, when manufacturers shifted production abroad while retaining a specialized core at home. With domestic demand now recovering, August says the Nordics appear better placed than Germany to navigate a less global world and a potential new China shock
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More Merzschmerz
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 22 Sep 2026
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In German, the language with a word for everything, Merzschmerz describes the pain of struggling for 50 years to climb the political ladder, only to get to the top and find that no one wanted you as leader, they just couldn’t think of anyone else. Well, for Germany’s federal chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the hurt has not faded over time. Speculations about a Kanzlertausch—a change of chancellor—are swirling. Cedric reads the political tea leaves.
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A Reluctant Rise In EV Prices
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 22 Sep 2026
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Is China’s legendary price war in electric vehicles finally over? After nearly three years of aggressive price cuts, all major automakers are now raising prices. Superficially, that’s a success for the government’s “anti-involution” campaign. But as Ernan explains in this piece, today’s higher prices are not translating into more profits for EV makers, as they reflect higher costs not reduced competition. And with EV sales declining this year, there’s a risk higher prices will weigh more on consumer demand.
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