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Critical Avalanche
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 6 Sep 2024
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Early August saw turbulence that caused the MSCI World index to slide -6% and the Japanese Topix to slump -20%. The episode left portfolio managers with the choice of cutting all risks and incurring losses, or instead toughing out the market adjustment. In this report, Didier explains why his differentiation between fundamental factors and incidental factors led him to sit tight.
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The Barnier Put On French Bonds
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 6 Sep 2024
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Having consulted across the political spectrum, France’s president has decided that the common denominator in his divided country is Michel Barnier. Two months after voters returned the Fifth Republic’s most politically fragmented National Assembly ever, Emmanuel Macron appointed the arch-Gaullist and former European Union commissioner as France’s new prime minister.
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Webinar: Mapping US Outcomes
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 6 Sep 2024 Video
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In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly on key policy positions that will heavily impact the economy and markets. In this webinar, Will and Kai Xian compare the parties’ major policy stances and assess what they mean for markets—especially US equities, US bonds and the US dollar.
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Video: India Still A Bright Spot
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 5 Sep 2024 Video
In this interview, Udith discusses the story behind the numbers of India’s latest GDP release and offers his views on the monetary environment for the rest of the year and what this means for Indian asset markets.
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India Macro Update: On An Even Keel
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 5 Sep 2024
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A slowdown in India’s headline GDP masks an improvement in the underlying drivers of growth, argue Udith and Tom. Now that election-related uncertainty is over, government spending should pick up and aid the incipient recovery in private consumption and investment. Indian bonds and equities should continue to fare well, with monetary easing likely to get underway soon.
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A Swiss Currency Problem
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 5 Sep 2024
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It is a case of “be careful of what you wish for” in Switzerland where inflation slowed more than expected in August. The latest reading also means that inflation for 3Q24 is set to come in well below the Swiss National Bank’s own projected level of 1.5%. The problem is the strength of the Swiss franc, which is starting to look like an agent of deflation.
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Timing The Property Downturn
Andrew Batson, Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 Sep 2024
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How much longer does China’s property crisis have to run? The collapse in housing sales, prices and construction activity has now run for three full years. In this piece, Andrew and Xiaoxi explore the cross-country data on housing busts to assess whether the crisis is still in its early innings, or getting closer to winding down.
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Conversation: Judging The China Consensus
Andrew Batson, Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2024
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It’s become conventional wisdom that China is desperately dumping exports on the world economy to bolster its disappointing domestic growth. In our latest Conversation, Andrew and Arthur debate this emerging consensus. They discuss what really motivates China’s leaders, how its problems affect the rest of the world, and what the global political reaction will be like.
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The Market's Rotation
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2024
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A little over 10 days ago at Jackson Hole, Jay Powell made it pretty clear that the Federal Reserve was on an easing path. But somewhat counterintuitively, however, cyclicals continued on the downward path they began in mid-May. The assets that outperformed were gold, defensives and financials. Louis examines the drivers behind these trends, whether they will last and where global growth is headed.
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An Over-Financialized Economy?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 3 Sep 2024
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In the last 10 years, US stock market capitalization has grown from two times the size of the US private sector economy to three times. This makes it harder for the economy to generate the expected stock market returns. But that’s not all. The size of the private asset industry has also ballooned, and so has the size of US government debt, all of which must be serviced by the private sector. Louis wonders if the math still works.
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