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CXMT Is Growing Fast, But Can’t Solve The DRAM Shortage
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 2 Jul 2026
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Changxin Memory Technologies' planned US$4–5bn Shanghai STAR Market IPO has raised concerns that China’s DRAM champion could flood the market with excess capacity and aggressive prices, but that risk looks overstated in the near term.
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Video: China As A European Partner?
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 2 Jul 2026 Video
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European policymakers are becoming increasingly hyperbolic about the threat Chinese producers pose to the continent's industrial base. As industrial giants such as Volkswagen restructure and slash jobs, fears of a new China shock are reaching fever pitch. Yet Cedric argues that this increasingly popular narrative is too simplistic, and overlooks what is really happening beneath the surface.
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The Bond Portfolio For A Swiss Investor
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 2 Jul 2026
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Swiss government bonds offer safety, but today that safety comes with a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. Didier asks whether investors can improve returns and reduce risk by diversifying part of their bond allocation into gold and the sovereign debt of countries benefiting from the changing global monetary order.
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Incentives And Outcomes
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 2 Jul 2026
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The market capitalization of SpaceX has fallen from its post-IPO peak, but at Tuesday's close was still greater than the total market cap of the entire crypto-currency industry. The lack of cash flows, the tremendous devotion these assets inspire in some investors and the belief they will change the world seem to be the common characteristics linking crypto and AI. There are however, meaningful differences between the two asset classes.
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Lessons Learned And Relearned?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 1 Jul 2026
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For investors, the first half of 2026 was “emotional.” In this paper, Louis asks what lessons investors can learn from the rollercoaster of the last six months, drawing trenchant conclusions for the role of bonds in portfolios, the outlook for energy and energy stocks, currency markets and global geoeconomics.
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Greenspan The GOAT
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 1 Jul 2026
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Last Monday, Alan Greenspan left us. In this Daily note, Charles pays tribute to the man who he considers to be the greatest central banker in history. During his mandate inflation remained low, and the US dollar remained a sound reserve of value.
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Transforming Trucking
Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 1 Jul 2026
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Battery-powered heavy trucks are rapidly becoming more cost-effective and popular in China, gradually displacing one of the biggest domestic consumers of diesel fuel. Ernan and Thomas argue that a new government plan rolled out in May will build on that momentum, contributing to the planned peak in China’s total oil consumption and further insulating it from global energy-price volatility.
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Confirming Signals And The Four Quadrants
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 30 Jun 2026
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Are markets correctly signaling an inflationary boom, or are investors overlooking the forces that could produce a very different outcome? Louis delves into the Four Quadrants framework to weigh the messages from fiscal, monetary and labor market policies, geopolitics, economic data and market prices. The result is a roadmap for thinking about the macro environment and the future investment regime.
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The Slump In Asian Currencies
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 30 Jun 2026
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Asian trading on Tuesday saw the Japanese yen hit ¥162.40 against the US dollar, its weakest since December 1986 in the early days of the bubble economy following the signing of the Plaza Accord. This latest drop in the yen follows steep falls in recent weeks from other Asian currencies including the Korean won, Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah.
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Tesla’s Two Way Bet In Physical AI
AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 29 Jun 2026
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Tesla’s market capitalization is by far the biggest among global automakers, mainly because it has sold itself as a leader in AI—not just in cars, but for humanoid robots as well. To turn its AI vision into reality, it needs China. Its Shanghai gigafactory enabled Tesla to scale up electric vehicle production; to scale up robotaxis and humanoids, it will have to figure out how to operate in both the US and China even as the two countries wall off their AI ecosystems from each other.
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