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Found 13099 results
Goodbye Growth Potential
Tan Kai Xian
/
Gavekal Research
|
8 Oct 2025
The Trump administration’s tighter immigration policies are slowing US labor force growth and, over time, may constrain potential output relative to other major economies, says Kai Xian. As a result, the near- to medium-term outlook points to relatively slower US growth and a softer US dollar.
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Seismic Foreshocks?
Tan Kai Xian
/
Gavekal Research
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8 Oct 2025
The failures in September of US auto lender Tricolor and US auto parts maker First Brands are still causing aftershocks for the financial system. The question for macro investors is whether these two corporate collapses are the foreshocks of a greater seismic upheaval yet to come for the US economy.
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Getting Industrial Policy Right
Arthur Kroeber
,
Laila Khawaja
,
Damien Ma
,
Tom Hancock
/
Gavekal Research
|
7 Oct 2025
Both China and the US are now fully committed to industrial policy, but the ingredients for success will differ in each country. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at what lessons the US can draw from China’s industrial success, and what China’s next steps will be in artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology.
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Getting Industrial Policy Right
Arthur Kroeber
,
Laila Khawaja
,
Damien Ma
,
Tom Hancock
/
Gavekal Technologies: Chips
|
7 Oct 2025
Both China and the US are now fully committed to industrial policy, but the ingredients for success will differ in each country. In this issue of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we look at what lessons the US can draw from China’s industrial success, and what China’s next steps will be in artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology.
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Situation Desperate, Not Serious
Cedric Gemehl
/
Gavekal Research
|
7 Oct 2025
On Monday, Sébastien Lecornu—France’s third prime minister since president Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly in June 2024—submitted his resignation just 14 hours after appointing his new government. Cedric examines if this means the French political center is imploding, and what's likely to happen next.
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The Elusive “Slow Bull” Market
Thomas Gatley
/
Gavekal Dragonomics
|
7 Oct 2025
One year into China’s latest equity-market rally, onshore and offshore stocks are up about 60% and momentum has gathered renewed pace since August. State media claims that the long-awaited “slow bull” market—a gradual and sustained rise in equity prices—has finally arrived are premature, argues Thomas. But the hope is not ungrounded.
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More Important Than The Shutdown
Will Denyer
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Gavekal Research
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6 Oct 2025
The US government shutdown has captured the headlines. But Will argues there were more important developments in the first week of October, which will have a greater impact on the US—and global—investment environment.
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The Different Kinds Of Bubble
Louis-Vincent Gave
/
Gavekal Research
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3 Oct 2025
Over the years, a staple argument within Gavekal research has involved the not-always-obvious distinction between productive bubbles and unproductive bubbles. The deflation of both can ruin an investor who is injudiciously exposed at the top of the market, yet the after-effects vary greatly for the wider economy depending on the type of bubble. In this report, Louis considers the current surge in artificial intelligence capital spending using this analytical framing. He assesses whether it constitutes a bubble and, if so, what type.
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The Japanese Equity Bull Is Not Done Yet
Udith Sikand
/
Gavekal Research
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3 Oct 2025
After plunging -20% on Donald Trump’s “liberation day” announcement, the MSCI Japan index has rebounded 35% from its April 7 low. The rally has unfolded despite political turmoil, and yet Japanese equities remain inexpensive, with multiple catalysts for further rerating. The upcoming leadership election is therefore likely to be little more than a sideshow to the ongoing rally.
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China AI Finds The Money In Hardware
Tilly Zhang
/
Gavekal Technologies: Chips
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2 Oct 2025
Chinese AI developers are doing well at keeping pace with the performance of US models, but less well at monetizing them. With Chinese consumers and businesses unwilling to pay much for AI software services, developers are turning to applications embedded in hardware: watches, glasses, earbuds and "education machines" for at-home tutoring. Unlike their US rivals, which can focus on selling chatbot subscriptions, Chinese AI firms need to follow a two-track revenue strategy: hardware applications in their home market, and software services abroad.
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