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Europe Strategy: Stick With It
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 24 Nov 2025
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European equities started 2025 at a sprint before stumbling into the “Liberation Day” crash and then rebounding with surprising speed. The recovery gave way to a summer of consolidation. Having weakened again in November, the question is what dynamic runs through into 2026.
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The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 24 Nov 2025
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China’s household consumption growth has weakened further in 2025, primarily driven by the weak labor market and slowing household income growth. Policymakers have announced several new measures to boost spending, but there are also reasons to think that the slowdown might continue. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers of household consumption, and explores what it means for consumer spending in the months to come.
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A Great Bear Market Hedge
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 24 Nov 2025
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In the two years since Charles first proposed that investors should hold a “Turkish portfolio” comprising 50% equities and 50% gold, this approach has proved reasonably effective. But there are limits—even to the stupidity of the markets. Here, he considers the usefulness of Japanese government bonds as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose" hedge.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 21 Nov 2025
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The Trump administration keeps talking about peace, but there is some chance the US could try a decapitation strike to take out Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and install a more friendly government. Also in this edition, we look at the latest flare-up in China-Japan tensions, and find that China’s big international lending portfolio is less about Belt-and-Road infrastructure and more about financing cross-border expansion by Chinese firms.
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Rational And Irrational Bubbles
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 21 Nov 2025
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Those of us who have been in this business for a while, says Charles, will remember the 1999-2000 dot-com era for two main reasons: There was an enormous stock market bubble, and this bubble was perfectly rational. In this piece he examines the pay-off profile of dot-com companies compared with today's AI companies and concludes today's AI bubble seems far from rational.
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Overseas Lending Switches To Renminbi
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Nov 2025
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Since 2022, the rest of the world has generally not been that interested in lending renminbi to China— i.e., buying its government bonds—thanks to its low interest rates and a weakening trend in the currency. But Wei argues that those same factors have made it more attractive for the rest of the world to borrow renminbi from China. In this piece, he unpacks the sudden rise in China’s renminbi-denominated lending abroad.
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Assessing Geopolitical Risks
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 20 Nov 2025
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US hawks target Alibaba over military ties. The Nexperia dispute’s supply chain effect. Applied Materials' China revenue warning.
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Hostage To The Equity Market
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 20 Nov 2025
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Nvidia’s announcement of 21% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth in the three months to late October and of strong guidance for the current quarter will allay investor fears for the sustainability of the AI boom, at least in the near term. But doubts will soon return, in part because the outlook for US economic growth is increasingly hostage to the health of the equity market.
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AI Bashing
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 20 Nov 2025
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Artificial intelligence is everywhere, whether whispering through Main Street or roaring across Wall Street, as evidenced by Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings release. And with its rise comes a wave of critics saying the whole thing is a bubble on the verge of bursting, threatening to take trillions in investments down with it. But is this really insight, or just another round of AI bashing, asks Didier.
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Video: Hopes And Fears In The Middle East
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 19 Nov 2025 Video
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After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just. But although the resolution’s approval is an achievement in itself, the latest step does little to resolve the contradictions in Trump’s plan and the obstacles they present to progress. In this interview, Tom Holland assesses the chances of success and weighs the costs of a possible breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire.
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