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Is China Turning The Corner?
Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley, Tilly Zhang, Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 21 Feb 2025 Video
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Technological optimism seems to be doing what macroeconomic policy could not: change foreign investors’ minds about China. At the same time the nascent rebound in the property market is at risk of stalling out amid a policy vacuum. And signals of greater comity between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have not prevented the escalation of US tariffs on China. In this webinar, our China team assesses the conflicting signals for the outlook for 2025.
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Video: Making Sense Of US Tariffs
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Research | 20 Feb 2025 Video
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The United States has announced a series of new tariff initiatives on trading partners but not implemented many of them, pending reports by officials and negotiations with other countries. The market’s interpretation seems to be that this is a performative action by President Donald Trump that establishes his dominance among leaders but points to a trade war being averted. Arthur unpicks this proposition and cautions that investors may be underestimating the inflationary impact of what is likely to follow.
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Follow The Liquidity
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 20 Feb 2025
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An investing maxim from hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller is to focus on liquidity changes. On this basis, it is notable that loan and lease financing by US commercial banks is on the up. This matters, because in 2025 US liquidity growth is likely to stem from US commercial banks rather than the Federal Reserve.
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What’s At Stake With Vanke
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 20 Feb 2025
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China’s government is set up for another test of whether it will exceed or disappoint market expectations on support for real estate. Xiaoxi argues that how officials end up managing Vanke will provide an indication of how ready they are to support property developers more broadly, and that will in turn have a real impact on homebuying sentiment—a test that comes at a pivotal moment for the property sector.
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Sweden Vs. Switzerland
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 20 Feb 2025
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While investing in stocks during a bullish cycle can be highly profitable, leaning on defensive stocks in downturns is far riskier. In a market crash, nearly all stocks sink together, says Didier. For this reason, he suggests comparing equity returns in Sweden and Switzerland, two similarly sized European countries whose stock markets have a very different composition and move to different market impulses.
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Is Asia Hitting A Debt Wall?
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 19 Feb 2025
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It is hard to imagine Asia being at the center of the next global crisis, says Udith, but it is worth asking if a region that has some of the world’s highest aggregate debt levels is more vulnerable than it looks.
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The Future Of European Defense
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 19 Feb 2025
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News of the “highly productive” telephone call last Wednesday between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin horrified Europe’s political establishment, as did the combative speech two days later in Munich by US vice president JD Vance. For investors in European defense stocks, however, last week’s developments were icing on the cake of a long and lucrative rally.
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Trump’s Three Market Priorities
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 18 Feb 2025
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The new US administration of Donald Trump has three clear financial market objectives: to lower long-dated US yields, weaken the US dollar and bring down energy prices. In this paper, Louis looks at the tools available to the administration in pursuit of these goals, examines the arguments for and against its success, and considers the economic and market consequences.
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The Great Return Of The Balanced Fund
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 18 Feb 2025
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Late last year, Charles published a book summarizing his portfolio construction work where the focus was on achieving stable and steady returns with controlled downside. Yet while the book is done, the work continues. The aim today is to show how the permanent portfolio can be used as a US treasury substitute in the classical balanced portfolio, since it acts like a synthetic inflation-protected bond.
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A New Dawn For China’s Tech Sector?
Thomas Gatley, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 18 Feb 2025
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The good news is rolling in for China’s big technology companies, most recently the appearance of internet executives at a symposium held Monday by top leader Xi Jinping. Thomas and Tilly argue that if the recent rally in Chinese tech stocks is sustained, it could unlock a virtuous market cycle in the tech sector—though one that benefits mostly larger and established companies, not the dried-up pipeline of early-stage firms.
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