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Geoeconomic Monitor: After The War
Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the war in the Middle East escalates, the immediate prospects for peace look poor. We attempt to peer through the fog of war to determine who will benefit when it does eventually end. If the United States achieves its aims, Tom Holland envisages a boom for Iran and the Gulf. If it does not, he predicts the whole region will decline. Tom Miller asks why China has provided no meaningful support to Iran.
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Iran And The Fog Of War
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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The overall measured response of markets to the war in Iran points to investors taking a view that we are experiencing short-term disruption that should soon pass. In this piece, Louis interrogates that proposition from the perspective of the US, Israel, and Iran.
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Picking Up Loans On The Cheap
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 6 Mar 2026
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As the US-led war in Iran consumes international investor attention, private credit concerns continue to bubble up within the US itself. Practitioners such as Blue Owl and Blackstone have seen their share prices crater as investors question the quality of non-bank, privately negotiated lending. The sell-off raises four questions.
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China Enriches Export Control Toolkit
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 5 Mar 2026
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Beijing debuts export control “watch list”; Chinese firms accelerate auto chip self-sufficiency; National IC Fund III invests in humanoids; implications of the US strike on Iran.
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Policy Challenges Around The World
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 Mar 2026
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In recent years, voters in many countries have handed electoral mandates to so-called “populist” politicians who, a generation ago, would not have been taken seriously. Yet equity markets have generally held up well and currency volatility has remained muted. So are markets right to stay calm in the face of mounting social, economic and political strains, asks Louis, or are investors simply complacent? In this report, he reviews the key challenges facing the world’s largest economies.
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Dialing Back Fiscal Stimulus
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 Mar 2026
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Premier Li Qiang announced a pivot in his annual government work report on Thursday: officials will target lower economic growth in 2026, and the fiscal policy stance will be meaningfully more conservative. Wei argues that it means policymakers will probably not deliver much additional support to consumers this year, and they continue to implicitly count on exports to reach the growth target.
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Injurious Exposure
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 5 Mar 2026
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Reassured by the stabilization of European and US markets, Asian equities rallied Thursday following the previous day’s bruising falls. The notable laggard was India, whose equity market already looked expensive compared to markets elsewhere in Asia. Now, this latest round of underperformance reflects India’s disproportionately high vulnerability to a protracted crisis in the Middle East.
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It Does Not Add Up...
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Mar 2026
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Charles has long centered energy prices as a central variable in his analysis of economies and markets. Some time ago he noticed that periods of energy prices rising faster than the US equity market often turn out to be the precursor to major grizzly bear markets unfolding. Even before the latest war in the Midde East, he was nervous because his gold-based measure of the S&P 500 was indicating trouble ahead.
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Into An Inflationary Bust?
Tom Holland, Research Team / Gavekal Research | 4 Mar 2026
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Donald Trump’s promise Tuesday that “the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world,” if necessary by escorting tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, left investors unimpressed Wednesday in Asia. Across the region, equity markets continued to slide as investors contemplated the likely macro and market fallout should trade through the Straits remain suspended for an extended period. A simple historical comparison with 2022 suggests the effects on economies around the world could be pronounced.
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A Comfortable Bystander
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Dragonomics | 4 Mar 2026
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US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran came just a month ahead of his much-hyped planned state visit to China, which sources around 10% of its crude oil imports from Iran. Arthur examines the implications of the strike on US-China relations, and concludes that the attack is unlikely to either help Trump in negotiations or lead China to cancel the meeting.
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