Search results

Sort by:
items per page
Found 13055 results
Tail Risks To The Unfolding Inflationary Boom
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 17 Sep 2025
Lock
Today’s “inflationary boom” is sufficiently well anchored that it would probably take a serious US recession, or a collapse in the artificial intelligence-driven tech infrastructure boom to push the world economy into a “deflationary bust” scenario, says Louis. In this piece he explains the arguments supporting that postulate but also looks at tail risks which could create a genuine global bust.
View
A Political Dilemma
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 17 Sep 2025
Lock
Until Trump showed up, the tacit contract underwritten by the US was that the US would defend Europe against Russia for free. This would allow European countries to keep cutting military spending and distribute social goodies that kept citizens happy. Trump has now shredded this contract. Charles argues that sooner rather than later, Europe is likely to return to the control of the men of the trees.
View
Pensions Under Pressure
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 17 Sep 2025
Lock
China’s government spending on pension benefits for the elderly has reached a new high relative to GDP—and will probably go on setting new record highs every year into the future as its population ages. Ernan examines how much the government can afford to increase the generosity of its pensions, and how much is it constrained by the inexorable arithmetic of an aging population.
View
Video: The Future Of The Fed
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 16 Sep 2025 Video
Lock
The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel. In this interview, Will discusses what all this means for near-term interest rate setting and for governance at the central bank in the longer term.
View
What Next For Indonesia?
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 16 Sep 2025
Lock
The violent unrest that shook Indonesia at the end of August has abated. However, the government has not addressed the underlying problem that fueled the protests: the economy’s failure to generate large numbers of well-paid new jobs. Instead, a combination of unrealistic revenue-raising projections and pressure on the central bank to help fund its spending programs is likely to unnerve foreign investors, write Tom and Udith.
View
Diverging Monetary Policy Drivers
Udith Sikand, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 16 Sep 2025
Lock
Amid a raft of central bank meetings this week, investors will focus on two fronts: monetary policy direction, and their ability to resist political interference. Udith and Cedric argue that EM and European central bank credibility and independence has largely held up, and that the trajectory of monetary policy and rate differentials in the months ahead points toward US dollar weakness.
View
Geoeconomic Monitor: Strategic Posturing In Asia
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 15 Sep 2025
Lock
In today’s issue we handicap the odds that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping actually accomplish anything when they meet later this fall; assess what China might be up to by agreeing to advance discussions on a big new gas pipeline from Russia; and explain the limits of India’s sudden efforts to mend its economic relationship with Beijing.
View
Domestic Demand Slips Again
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 15 Sep 2025
Lock
China’s economic indicators for August came in weaker than market expectations, with domestic demand and investment data softening. But despite mounting downward pressure on economic growth, Wei and the Dragonomics Team argue that it is insufficient to trigger a muscular policy response in the coming months.
View
Can US Manufacturers Produce More?
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 15 Sep 2025
Lock
On the surface, the effect of higher import tariffs, more foreign investment and a depreciating US dollar all point to the US manufacturing sector having gotten far more competitive. Hence, with US industrial production nearing a new high, is it the case that US factories are massively cranking up production and thus leading a reindustrialization surge? To the undoubted chagrin of the US government, the short answer is no.
View
US-China Relations After Power Of Siberia 2
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 12 Sep 2025
Lock
China’s reported deal to build a new pipeline to import natural gas from Russia’s Arctic just as the US is promising punitive secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian energy speaks of a new level of assertive international confidence in Beijing. Louis examines what this means for the evolution of the US-China relationship and considers what different bilateral scenarios imply for China’s financial markets.
View
items per page
  1. « First
  2. <
  3. 1
  4. 2
  5. 3
  6. 4
  7. 5
  8. …
  9. >
  10. Last »