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Will France Kill Euroflation?
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 5 Sep 2025
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With attention focused on France’s parliamentary confidence vote on Monday, there are fears that a fresh political crisis could lead to a blowout in French bond spreads and precipitate new eurozone debt stresses. Cedric dives into eurozone sovereign bond pricing and French fiscal dynamics to assess the risk.
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The Macro Case For US Small Caps
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 5 Sep 2025
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US small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed the broader equity market over the past 12 months, but Kai Xian argues that the macroeconomic winds are starting to shift in favor of small caps, and these forces are likely to outweigh other restraining factors.
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The AI Excitement Arrives In China
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 Sep 2025
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Investor enthusiasm for all things artificial intelligence has at last arrived in China: the share prices of Chinese AI-related companies surged in August, though they slipped back somewhat this week. Tilly argues that the rally is fueled by optimism that China’s AI industry has passed a turning point, and entered a self-sustaining cycle of rising investment and higher profitability.
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China’s Plan For Closing The AI Chip Gap
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 4 Sep 2025
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China aims to become a global AI innovation hub by 2030 and an intelligent economy by 2035, with massive compute buildouts central to this push despite near-term overcapacity concerns. With US restricting both the export of advanced chips and Chinese AI firms’ access to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Beijing will need to rely on a mix of grey-channel imports and domestic production, unless Washington relaxes chip controls.
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A Deteriorating US Current Account Deficit
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2025
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In the first quarter of 2025, the US current account deficit hit 6% of US GDP. Today, with the US government no longer keen on cutting its spending, US demand is running hot. And if US courts strike down tariffs it could get hotter. This suggests the current account deficit could grow even further, pumping ever more US dollars abroad, just as demand for dollars appears to be moderating. Louis examines the consequences.
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Abduction
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 4 Sep 2025
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The American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce argued that abduction—not deduction or induction—represents the primary mode of human reasoning. For Didier, abduction lies behind scientific discovery, as well as most economic, financial and political analysis. In this piece he applies this insight to current dilemmas for portfolio managers.
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A Demand Spark For European Industry
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 4 Sep 2025
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Sometimes marginal changes tell the most compelling story. Consider the eurozone’s industrial sector, which in August saw the manufacturing PMI tick above the 50 no-change mark for the first time since June 2022, thus ending a 37-month period of continuous contraction. Should we trust the PMI signal and conclude that European manufacturing is finally set for a period of expansion? Cedric and August say it is a tricky judgment, but most likely, yes.
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Video: Eurasian Partnerships On Parade
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 3 Sep 2025 Video
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Wednesday’s grand military parade through Beijing and the earlier Tianjin summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted by Xi Jinping and attended by both Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin, have emphasized the growth of economic partnerships on the Eurasian landmass in defiance of the established US-led international order. In this video interview, Tom Miller assesses the depth of India’s diplomatic reengagement with China, and considers the economic implications of the strengthening Eurasian relations.
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Axis Of Energy
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 3 Sep 2025
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the world has shifted to a two-tier energy market where countries willing to buy Russian energy in defiance of Western sanctions benefit from sizable discounts to global price benchmarks. The recently agreed Power of Siberia 2 deal demonstrates how this two-tier market is set to stay for the long haul, conferring significant economic advantages on buyers of Russian oil and gas, in what might be termed a new “axis of energy.”
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The Renminbi’s Recent Run
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Sep 2025
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Since May’s trade truce with the US, China’s central bank has been gradually guiding the currency higher against the dollar. But the pace picked up in the final days of August, when the central bank moved the fixing rate by as much as it had in the previous two months. Wei examines whether this is the start of a new trend of faster renminbi appreciation.
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