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Video: Oil After Hormuz
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 4 Jun 2026 Video
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Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
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A Tale Of Two Krone(a)s
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 4 Jun 2026
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The Norwegian krone has been Europe’s best-performing currency this year, but the real story is not just oil. While higher crude prices have helped, the more important driver has been Norway’s inflation and interest rate dynamics. These underlying forces are best illustrated by comparing Norway’s economic performance with that of neighboring Sweden, says August. Such an analysis points to a currency trend that may have run its course.
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The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 4 Jun 2026
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The upcoming SpaceX IPO could become an epic wealth-creation event because so few shares are likely to be available for trading relative to the stock’s potential index weight. By allowing companies with limited free floats to exert outsized influence, the Nasdaq is effectively violating a basic principle of physics, argues Didier. The result may be explosive gains for early investors, but also a market that becomes increasingly unstable and dependent on passive flows.
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South Korea Still Has Upside
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 4 Jun 2026
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The South Korean equity market has been on an astonishing bull run. And the rally has taken place even though the Korean won has been one of the weakest currencies in Asia. In an export dependent economy that ran a current account surplus last year, and is likely to run an even bigger surplus this year, this divergence is hard to ignore. Today, macroeconomic and market dynamics suggest the won’s depreciation is unlikely to continue.
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The Energy Shock And The India Growth Story
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 3 Jun 2026
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As energy import costs soar, macro stress is mounting in India. A widening current-account deficit, weakening capital inflows and a falling rupee are putting pressure on the economy just as rising inflation limits policymakers' room to respond. Tom and Udith assess whether this cyclical shock could evolve into a more structural challenge for India's growth story.
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Mega-IPOs And Reputation Risk
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 3 Jun 2026
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Unless you have been living on Mars, you know that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected shortly to price the largest initial public offerings in history. In addition, Alphabet just announced a massive secondary share issue. Can the market digest all this new stock? And even if it can, what are the risks these mega-IPOs, together with concurrent changes to index inclusion rules, could blow a hole in some of the best brands in finance: the US equity market in general and the Nasdaq in particular?
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Oil Reserves Are Missing In Action
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Jun 2026
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China’s stockpiling of oil looked prescient at the outbreak of the Iran war. But Thomas argues that the government does not appear to have dug into those reserves, even amid a sharp falloff in oil imports. The damage will end up being a short-term blip if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon—but if the closure drags on, policymakers could get more aggressive in using reserves to cushion the dropoff in economic activity.
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The State Of World Oil Stocks
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 2 Jun 2026
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In recent days, we’ve heard some apocalyptic warnings from oil industry executives about the depleted state of global petroleum stocks, and what will happen if Washington and Tehran fail to agree an interim peace deal that gets tanker traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. These guys know their industry. But are oil stocks really so run down that if the US and Iran cannot agree a preliminary truce in the next few days, we will see oil prices spike another 50% to US$150/bbl before the month is over?
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Liquidity Injections And Liquidity Drains
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 2 Jun 2026
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Investors think they are trading an AI revolution. They may actually be trading a liquidity cycle, says Louis. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz may have temporarily released hundreds of billions of dollars into financial markets, helping to fuel the surge in semiconductor stocks. Yet the same forces could soon reverse. As inventories are rebuilt and mega-IPOs such as SpaceX absorb unprecedented amounts of capital, can the semiconductor boom survive once liquidity starts flowing elsewhere?
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China’s Export-Control Calculus
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 1 Jun 2026
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As Washington discovered with semiconductors, export controls that aim to maintain a technological lead are double-edged. They may slow a rival’s catch-up, but they also incentivize the rival’s innovation and harm domestic interests. And they are hard to enforce. China is rapidly expanding its export controls to include not just rare earths but many other technologies where it has a lead. But the more controls it imposes, the more it risks choking off revenues and paths to innovation for its leading tech companies.
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