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After Iran, Will China Attack Taiwan?
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 27 Mar 2026
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China has been conspicuous by its absence in the Iran war. But could it be quietly biding its time to take the ultimate strategic advantage by seizing Taiwan? The US is redeploying military assets away from East Asia to the Middle East, potentially tilting the balance of power in China’s favor. In addition, the US-led decapitation of leaders in Venezuela and Iran has set a precedent. Tom examines whether this will embolden Xi Jinping to press China’s advantage across the Taiwan Strait.
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What Value In US Bonds?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 27 Mar 2026
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In the four weeks since the bombing began in Iran, 10-year US treasury yields have climbed 48bp, from 3.94% to 4.42%. At this yield, do US treasuries offer attractive value? Should investors buy the dip in US bonds? To value US bonds, Will considers the “golden rule” of French Nobel laureate Maurice Allais and conducts a scenario analysis.
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Managing The Oil Shock
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 27 Mar 2026
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In response to the unfolding oil-supply crisis caused by the war with Iran, China’s policymakers have turned to a well-thumbed page in their crisis playbook: using state-owned enterprises to ease the domestic shock of suddenly higher prices. In this piece, Thomas explains how China can easily afford to postpone adjusting to higher oil prices, at least for a few months.
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Video: Geopolitics Tests EU Unity
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 26 Mar 2026 Video
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Over the last week, voters have cautiously backed centrist politicians in a series of European elections. The process of political fragmentation has hardly reversed in Europe, but many voters are seeking practical answers to difficult questions at a time when Europe feels besieged in both strategic and economic terms. In this interview, Cedric discusses what this more realistic mood means for European Union integration.
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China’s AI Compute Shortage
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 26 Mar 2026
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Chinese cloud service providers and artificial-intelligence-model companies are raising prices sharply amid surging inference demand, increasing hardware costs, and limited access to advanced chips. Tighter US export enforcement is expected to have a big impact on the grey-market flows of Nvidia chips into China, while the availability of export-compliant chips remains uncertain amid supply chain and regulatory uncertainties. While this creates opportunities for domestic chips, scaling is limited by capacity constraints and compliance risks. As a result, the AI compute shortage is unlikely to ease in the near term, benefiting firms that control scarce compute resources.
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What To Do? Stay Put
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 26 Mar 2026
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Sound portfolio management does not rely on prediction, because the world is fundamentally uncertain, says Didier. Worse still, forecasts follow a brutal law: the more precise they become, the more likely they are to be wrong. He applies this insight to the dilemma faced by portfolio managers at the current moment because of confused signaling associated with the Iran war.
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The Policy Trap
Udith Sikand, Research Team / Gavekal Research | 26 Mar 2026
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For governments around the world, the policy response to the Iran war energy shock is relatively clear: if necessary chuck out fiscal rules in an attempt to protect the economy from higher energy prices. For central bankers, the choice is tougher: tighten monetary policy early to counter inflationary pressure, or hold back from raising rates and run the risk of playing catch-up further down the road. Either way, the balance of risk points to interest rate increases.
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Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Tom Holland, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 26 Mar 2026 Video
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The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
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Oil Crisis? What Oil Crisis?
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 25 Mar 2026
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The sense of crisis is palpable. Since the end of February, when the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, leading to the suspension of most tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, the price of international benchmark Brent blend crude oil has jumped 37% to US$100/bbl Wednesday morning in Asia. Yet to some extent, the concern about fuel shortages is misplaced.
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The Stagflation Reaction Function
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 25 Mar 2026
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Not much is clear about the unfolding oil-supply shock caused by the Iran war, but the direction of change is unambiguous: higher inflation and lower growth. Such a stagflationary combination always presents difficult choices for monetary policy. In this piece, Andrew argues that China’s central bank will try to avoid those choices. Its bias is neither to be clearly hawkish nor clearly dovish, but instead to favor doing as little as possible to adjust policy.
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