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US Export Controls Frontier AI Models
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 18 Jun 2026
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US export controls frontier AI models; Unitree-Nvidia collab receives mixed reactions in China
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Video: Warsh's Task Forces
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 18 Jun 2026 Video
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Kevin Warsh has announced five task forces within the Federal Reserve to explore five key factors influencing the way it makes monetary policy. In this video interview, Will discusses whether this amounts to a bureaucratic exercise or if Warsh is preparing the ground for radical change at the US central bank.
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Europe’s China Shock In Perspective
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 18 Jun 2026
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Europe is moving closer to tougher trade measures against China as concerns over its growing export dominance intensify. Yet the "second China shock" narrative overstates the damage: the EU still runs a sizeable trade surplus with the rest of the world. And China's rise is indeed creating challenges for European industry, but it is also supporting investment and Europe's broader economic rebalancing.
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Has The Fed Already Hit Its Inflation Target?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 18 Jun 2026
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Going into Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, investors were looking to see how he might shake things up on three fronts: the inflation target, the balance sheet and communication. The only changes made at Warsh’s first meeting were to communication, but further changes are in store.
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Mired In The Labor-Market Malaise
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 18 Jun 2026
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China’s labor market never truly recovered after the pandemic, and recently released data on jobs and wages in 2025 reveal the extent of the malaise. Ernan argues that urban labor-market conditions weakened across the board. The major bright spot is manufacturing, thanks to robust export growth, but the job gains in that sector are probably not enough to tighten the overall labor market.
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Japan’s Mixed Messaging
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 17 Jun 2026
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At its policy meeting on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan delivered a masterclass in mixed messaging—some might say obfuscation, says Udith. The takeaway is that the BoJ is happy being seen as behind the curve. In theory, that should keep the yen under pressure and Japanese government bond yields on an upward trajectory. But a changed global backdrop means this may not be the case, he argues.
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Why Is Hong Kong Struggling?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 17 Jun 2026
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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is now down over the past 12 months. Usually, Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong struggle when the US dollar is strong, onshore equities struggle, real estate is moving lower or the political situation is unsettled. But today, none of the usual culprits can be blamed for the disappointing performance of Hong Kong equities. Louis examines what could be to blame.
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Demand And Supply Of Money
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 16 Jun 2026
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From post-Iran war reconstruction in the Persian Gulf to the buildout of massive AI data centers, demand for capital is exploding while its supply grows ever scarcer. Unsurprisingly, the price of capital is rising. In this paper, Louis explores who stands to benefit from this new reality.
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The Outlook After The Oil Shock
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 16 Jun 2026
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China’s economic growth continued to suffer from high oil prices in May, but did not worsen much further from April—in large part because artificial-intelligence-related exports are surging. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that the US-Iran peace agreement means growth now appears almost certain to accelerate after Q2, though consumption is still a real concern.
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The War Has Ended And Capital Will Rotate Out Of US Assets
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 16 Jun 2026
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It is well known that the first casualty of war is truth. As such, investors could only assume that every market-moving statement from any of the main belligerents in the Iran-Israel-US war that started on February 28 was possibly a lie. In turn, this meant that every financial market in the world was possibly trading at “false prices,” making rational investment analysis very challenging. This situation has now completely changed.
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