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Video: China Crashes The AI Party
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 13 Aug 2026 Video
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China’s arrival as a serious AI competitor threatens to upend an investment boom so far dominated by a small group of mostly US and allied companies. Chinese labs are already producing frontier-level models despite restricted access to advanced chips, while a determined push to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain could eventually challenge the incumbents in AI hardware. Will considers the winners and losers from the disruption.
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The Next Stage Of The LLM Race
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 13 Aug 2026
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The popular framing of cheap Chinese open-weight models challenging expensive US closed models is becoming less useful as both sides adopt tiered strategies. LLM pricing is increasingly defined by model tier and business strategy rather than a model’s origin. The key questions are whether US labs can advance the frontier fast enough to preserve premium pricing, and whether Chinese labs can convert adoption into durable revenue to sustain frontier development.
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Trump’s New Coercive Toolkit
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 13 Aug 2026
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On August 7, the US Senate passed an amended Russian sanctions bill authorizing the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the world’s top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas. The bill still has to get through the House of Representatives, which may be reluctant to give Donald Trump further sweeping tariff powers. But if it becomes law, it could set a precedent for secondary tariffs as a standard sanctions instrument.
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Less Than Zero
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 12 Aug 2026
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Emboldened by the continued climb of stock prices, Americans are spending more of their incomes, and saving less. If the savings rate continues to decline, individuals will at some point be spending more than they earn. If they want to maintain their spending, they will have to either borrow or sell assets. These two courses have very different macroeconomic implications.
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Back To Keynes
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 12 Aug 2026
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Keynes warned that excessive saving could push economies into a low-growth equilibrium; today, Asian central banks may be playing the role once occupied by his rentiers. Decades of undervalued Asian currencies and surplus recycling have left parts of the West in a debt trap that can ultimately be resolved either through default and economic dislocation or a major revaluation of Asian currencies. Charles considers the consequences of these two paths and how investors can construct portfolios robust enough to navigate either outcome.
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These Unemployment Numbers Are Going Up
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 12 Aug 2026
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There may be no Chinese economic statistic with a longer history of being utterly useless than the unemployment rate, which has been amazingly steady around 5%. But Andrew argues that in a surprising twist, government systems for serving the unemployed have reported substantial increases in the numbers of jobless since 2022—meaning a system that for years disguised unemployment is now revealing it.
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Europe’s Public Investment Boom Changes Shape
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 11 Aug 2026
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The end of the EU’s post-Covid investment program at the end of this month will bring a significant shift in Europe’s public investment cycle, but not necessarily the investment cliff that might have been feared. As Brussels-funded civilian spending winds down, investment will rotate toward defense and geographically from Southern and Eastern Europe toward Germany and Northern Europe. August examines how these shifts will reshape Europe’s growth impulse in 2027 and change the beneficiaries of public spending.
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The Two Natural Rates
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 11 Aug 2026
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To Knut Wicksell, the natural rate of interest was the rate at which savings equaled investments. But he lived most of his life under a gold standard. Since 1972, we have lived under a bizarre monetary system, where what has given value to the dollar is simply that one has had to have dollars to buy oil. So the global economy did not have a single natural rate, but rather one for anything that had to do with the price of oil and another which applied to non-oil trade. Today this strange dichotomy is coming to an end.
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The Tech Truce Starts To Fray
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 10 Aug 2026
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In May, presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping promised a new era of “constructive strategic stability.” What we have seen since then is a simmering tension, as the US has tried to restrict Chinese tech imports through a series of measures by a new actor, the Federal Communications Commission. China finally responded in early August with a calibrated set of its own restrictions, designed to respond to the US but not to escalate.
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The Precious Metal Quandary
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 10 Aug 2026
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Precious metals have suffered a brutal reversal since the outbreak of the Iran war, challenging the assumption that geopolitical turmoil is always good for gold. The sell-off reflects a combination of central bank sales, disrupted Middle Eastern demand, weaker Asian buying and fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Louis weighs the threats to gold against the potential catalysts for a recovery, from easier monetary policy and renewed Chinese buying to a normalization of Middle Eastern trade.
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