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Waiting For Anti-Involution Output Cuts
Wei He, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 19 Dec 2025
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China’s anti-involution campaign pushed up commodity prices earlier this year. While those gains have now mostly stalled, the prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon—the raw materials used to make lithium batteries and solar modules—continue to climb. Wei and Tilly unpack the dynamics driving the recent price gains, and find that even in these high-priority sectors, the anti-involution campaign has not led to output cuts so far.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: The Balance Of Risks
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2025
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Today we look at how American strategic priorities are affecting geoeconomic risk. On the other side of the world, there is no evidence that the US is retreating from Asia: it is just asking its friends, notably Taiwan, to pay more—and they are doing so. Also in this issue, we look at Europe’s latest doomed effort to protect its automakers by stemming the inflow of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles.
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Sweden Taps Its ‘Barn Savings’
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 19 Dec 2025
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For decades, the fiscal mantra in Sweden has been “saving up in the barns against the coming crisis.” This is now changing. In September the government tabled its 2026 budget, constituting the country’s biggest stimulus outside the Covid pandemic. This is already boosting sentiment among businesses and consumers—and among investors; local equities and the krona have rallied in recent months, with further upside likely in the new year.
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Four Market Mispricings
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2025
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Last week, Louis considered four contrarian trades for 2026 but expressed some skepticism about all of them. In this piece, Anatole suggests a variant on this concept, but offers a high conviction view: four market mispricings which reflect ideas about the world economy that are already shared by many investors but not yet reflected in market prices, even though market trends have already started moving in a direction consistent with these ideas.
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Our 2025 Holiday Reading List
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Christopher Beddor, Will Denyer, Tom Miller, Wei He, Tan Kai Xian, Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2025
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In our annual holiday reading list, we offer our customary spread of recommendations. Louis-Vincent Gave reviews Charles Gave’s latest book. Charles reviews Alexis Rostand. Christopher Beddor tackles Kenneth Rogoff on the US dollar, Tom Miller reviews a contentious history of Taiwan, and Tilly Zhang considers Chinese industrial policy as portrayed in a work of science fiction. And that’s just a taste of the feast that awaits. Happy reading!
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Open Door And Chip Self-Sufficiency
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 18 Dec 2025
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China plans new chip subsidies, top officials meet AMD chief and China sees rising chip exports
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How To Think About Renminbi Appreciation
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2025
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China’s currency is moving back to the front of the global macro debate. Andrew argues that speculation about an imminent revaluation of the renminbi confuses means and ends: if China manages its economy well, then the real effective exchange rate should indeed appreciate. But a big appreciation of the nominal exchange rate would not necessarily help bring about an improvement of China’s economic situation.
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Webinar: Investing Into 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 18 Dec 2025 Video
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To close out the year, Gavekal’s three founding partners convened to discuss the investment environment heading into 2026. Asset allocators must ponder where the US-China technology rivalry goes from here and whether the two economies can reconcile their differences, if the US consumer can stand up to the pressure, and the relative appeal of emerging markets in regions like Latin America.
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A Weak And Bullish US Jobs Report
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 17 Dec 2025
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On the face of things, Tuesday’s US labor market data release is concerning. The headline unemployment rate for November ticked up for the fourth time in five months to 4.6%. Part of the story is that tighter immigration policies are weighing on labor force growth, and in turn the potential for job growth. And yet, a closer look at the labor market suggests this situation may end up being bullish for US equities.
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Video: The Immigration-Reindustrialization Balancing Act
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 17 Dec 2025 Video
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After two national guards were tragically shot by an Afghan national near the White House, the Trump administration has again tightened its immigration policy. The issue is that this stance comes with economic costs and potentially threatens the government’s stated aim of reindustrializing the United States. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian explains how US policymakers will likely manage that balancing act.
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