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Arming Up For The Trump-Xi Summit
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 7 May 2026
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The US-China relationship is no longer defined exclusively by trade restrictions and technology chokepoints, but increasingly by each side’s ability and willingness to deploy legal and regulatory measures and countermeasures. As Beijing establishes and demonstrates its leverage ahead of the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for next week, the ball is now in Washington’s court. The US can choose to test China's leverage or negotiate within it.
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Macro Update: Grappling With External Uncertainties
Wei He, Dragonomics Team / Gavekal Dragonomics | 7 May 2026
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China’s economic growth was solid in the first quarter, and policymakers announced plans to dial back fiscal stimulus. But domestic demand remains sluggish, and both the Iran war and global AI spending boom have created new uncertainties around the economic trajectory. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the coming months.
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Chinese Impressions
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 7 May 2026
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Didier says that he should have gone to China years ago but, to his embarrassment, he only recently returned from a first visit. In this note, he gives his first impressions and explains how they influence his long-term investment view.
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Navigating The AI Bubble: An Update
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 7 May 2026
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The artificial intelligence capital spending boom rages on, as evidenced by strong earnings releases and even stronger equity rallies from AI-related companies in the US and globally. With no clear signs of fatigue, the more relevant question is how durable this cycle is, what shape its key drivers are in and what could derail it.
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Chinese Green Tech And The Energy Security Conundrum
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 6 May 2026
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For Asia and Europe, the Strait of Hormuz’s closure is raising the importance of energy security. That means reducing dependence on hydrocarbon imports and boosting energy self-sufficiency by accelerating the shift to renewables and electrification. Increasingly, the best and most affordable green tech is Chinese.
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Asian Damage Control
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 6 May 2026
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Almost 10 weeks after ships stopped sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the pain in Asia from the disruption to fuel and feedstock supplies is finally showing up in the macro data. The question for investors is whether rising economic pain triggers a bout of contagion selling and a financial shock across the region, as during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Udith and Tom argue that there are two major reasons to think Asia will avoid a full-blown financial crisis.
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Foreign EV Makers Fight Back
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 5 May 2026
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At this year’s Beijing Auto Show, global automakers displayed some electric-vehicle models that are competitive with any produced by Chinese EV brands. Ernan argues that after lagging behind for years, some of these automaking giants are now embracing Chinese suppliers in order to gain competitiveness and hold their own against the Chinese EV makers, even in the world’s most competitive auto market.
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The High Cost Of Free Money (Part II)
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 May 2026
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Charles’s career mission has been to draw up “laws” governing the relationships between asset prices, with the ultimate objective of building the best portfolio. What frustrates him is that so many of the basic ideas he encounters among investors are still based on misnomers. That is why he is initiating a series of reports to examine generally accepted investment rules. He starts with the idea that low interest rates are a good thing.
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Energy Versus Semiconductors
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 5 May 2026
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In April, the MSCI World semiconductor index rose 27%. Over the same period, the MSCI World energy index fell -2.1%. In its collective wisdom, the market seems to be telling investors not to worry about the near-term possibility of an Iran-war-induced energy crisis, but instead to worry that the rollout of artificial intelligence solutions will trigger semiconductor shortages on a grand scale. The performance of the market now raises a question: what could energy bulls be missing?
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A Western Hemisphere Strategy For Rare Earths
Damien Ma, Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 4 May 2026
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Rare earths are sure to be on the agenda at the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing in mid-May. China’s chokehold over these specialty minerals continues to be its biggest source of leverage over the US. The US strategy is to build a China-free supply chain for rare earths and magnets. Unlike many Trump administration initiatives, the rare-earths industrial policy is disciplined and focused, and stands a good chance of success.
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