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Video: The Road Ahead For India
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 27 Nov 2025 Video
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As the Indian rupee weakens towards a new low at INR90 to the US dollar, and New Delhi continues to wrangle with Washington over a potential bilateral trade deal, Udith Sikand assesses the external forces affecting India’s economy, sizes up the domestic growth potential, and weighs the prospects for key structural reforms.
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Webinar: Europe's New Cyclical Dynamics
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 27 Nov 2025 Video
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Europe’s economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.
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Turning Bullish On Britain (But Not On The Labour Party)
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 27 Nov 2025
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The economic U-turn that I have been eagerly anticipating since Britain’s July 2024 general election has happened The markets have not yet noticed, because the carefully disguised policy reversals in Wednesday’s budget were totally unlike the screeching handbrake turn that I predicted in July. Anatole examines what this means for investors.
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Europe’s Energy Complacence
Cedric Gemehl, Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 26 Nov 2025
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As expectations grew of a possible peace deal over Ukraine, on Monday Europe’s benchmark TTF natural gas price fell to its lowest since May 2024. However, the decline in TTF prices predates the latest round of peace plans, and may reflect a dangerous degree of complacence over Western European energy supplies.
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Where Did The Young Cadres Go?
Christopher Beddor / Gavekal Dragonomics | 26 Nov 2025
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China’s top policymaking bodies used to contain many relatively young cadres; now they have vanished. Christopher argues that at least one reason is top leader Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power, which waylaid the careers of a cohort of young and ambitious up-and-comers. In this piece, he explores what that might mean for the future of Chinese politics.
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Resolving The Renminbi Anomaly
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 25 Nov 2025
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For Louis, the macro stars are aligned for the renminbi to grind higher. The fact that it is not doing so cannot be explained by relative prices between the US and China, trade flows, or investor positioning. In this piece, he reviews the underlying factors inhibiting a proper renminbi recovery and explores their broader investment implications.
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Going Nuclear
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 25 Nov 2025
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Even in the era of AI mega-capex, US$80bn is a lot of money. This is the sum the US government is proposing to pour into the construction of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors as part of a broader US$400bn drive to upgrade US energy infrastructure to meet future demand for electricity. Such lavish state-backed investment plans can be a two-edged sword for investors.
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Europe Strategy: Stick With It
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 24 Nov 2025
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European equities started 2025 at a sprint before stumbling into the “Liberation Day” crash and then rebounding with surprising speed. The recovery gave way to a summer of consolidation. Having weakened again in November, the question is what dynamic runs through into 2026.
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The Chinese Consumer In 2025
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 24 Nov 2025
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China’s household consumption growth has weakened further in 2025, primarily driven by the weak labor market and slowing household income growth. Policymakers have announced several new measures to boost spending, but there are also reasons to think that the slowdown might continue. In her annual chartbook, Ernan breaks down the key cyclical and structural drivers of household consumption, and explores what it means for consumer spending in the months to come.
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A Great Bear Market Hedge
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 24 Nov 2025
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In the two years since Charles first proposed that investors should hold a “Turkish portfolio” comprising 50% equities and 50% gold, this approach has proved reasonably effective. But there are limits—even to the stupidity of the markets. Here, he considers the usefulness of Japanese government bonds as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose" hedge.
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