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US Banks And The NatSec Intersection
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 24 Feb 2026
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US bank stocks took a beating Monday, with the S&P 500 bank index falling a painful -4.3%—almost as much as US software stocks. But Kai Xian argues that banks are emerging as one of the most promising ways to play the US government’s drive to step up investment in US national and economic security, and the recent fall may provide a buying opportunity.
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US Biotech Is Safe From China (For Now)
Tom Hancock, Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 23 Feb 2026
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Today in Gavekal Technologies Briefing we assess the growing fear in the US that its biotech industry is about to be overwhelmed by a flood of low-cost Chinese competition. The fear is overblown: the American edge in underlying innovation is solid, and US and European big pharma will reap most of the financial gains from the new drugs starting to come out of China. But to maintain its lead into the 2030s and beyond, the US biomedicine industry needs some serious regulatory reform.
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After The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 23 Feb 2026
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The shift in the tariff landscape following the US Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that all tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under IEEPA—the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act—are illegal is good news for equity investors. But it is not great news, writes Will Denyer.
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Truce, Détente, Or Something More?
Arthur Kroeber / Gavekal Dragonomics | 23 Feb 2026
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Last Friday’s tariff storm is unlikely to mean much for the course of US-China negotiations: many tariffs remain in place, and some that were eliminated could be restored under other legal authorities. Arthur argues that with top leader Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump now set to meet starting in late March, the question is whether the summitry will simply sustain the truce that the leaders hammered out last October, or lead to something much bigger.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: The Iran Outcome
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 20 Feb 2026
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Tom Holland looks at the momentum that is building for an attack on Iran, considers what the strategic objectives of a new campaign would be, and examines the probable fallout for the global energy markets. Tom Miller turns his lens on the US administration’s efforts to create a trade bloc for critical minerals and assesses their chances of success. Yanmei Xie explores how German industry is conflicted over trade and investment relations with China.
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Video: Material Realities In China’s Rebalancing
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Research | 20 Feb 2026 Video
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In five years, China has greatly reduced its reliance on property and supporting industries as a driver of economic activity. While the building binge continues to cast a pall over the wider economy, the Chinese stock market has the “old economy” property sector in the rear-view mirror and is fully pricing in “new economy” industries built around advanced manufacturing and the energy transition.
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Escaping The Growth Target’s Dilemma
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 20 Feb 2026
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As China’s government prepares to lay out its official economic targets for 2026 next month, the main remaining uncertainty is about the target for real GDP growth. Some argue it will be kept unchanged at 5%, others that it will be lowered to a range of 4.5-5%. In this piece, Andrew explains why neither choice is really a good one, and why the policy framework centered around real GDP needs to adjust.
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Rate Cuts And Affordability
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 20 Feb 2026
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President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh seem convinced that interest rate cuts will ease US affordability. The phrase is politically resonant but economically ambiguous. Kai Xian sonsiders how rate cuts have affected US households on three fronts.
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US (Briefly) Blacklists Chinese Firms
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 19 Feb 2026
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US briefly blacklists Chinese firms; moonshot AI targets overseas market; ByteDance self-develops AI chip.
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Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 19 Feb 2026
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How much money should an economy create, and at what interest rate, to ensure price stability, align the interests of lenders and borrowers, and unlock its full growth potential? In this piece, Didier stands on the shoulders of giants from the past to come up with an answer that is useful for investors.
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