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Incentives And Imbalances
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 10 Sep 2026
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The Trump administration wants to reduce the US external deficit, but the incentives needed to do so are not yet in place, says Kai Xian. Strong asset prices encourage US households to spend and attract foreign capital, while notwithstanding recent treasury market ructions, fiscal pressure remains limited. Unless expensive US equities and an overvalued dollar fall under their own weight, the US external deficit is therefore likely to remain large or widen further.
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Where Does The Money Go?
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 10 Sep 2026
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The cost of financial intermediation in the US has remained remarkably stable at around 2% a year for more than a century, despite huge productivity gains and sharply falling fund management fees. For Didier, the explanation may lie in Baumol’s cost disease, as rising coordination and compliance costs have absorbed much of the savings generated by technology. This matters particularly for long-term government bonds, whose real returns increasingly struggle to cover the cost of keeping the financial system running.
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Bessent Disappoints
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 10 Sep 2026
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In August, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised to “at least double” the size of upcoming buybacks at the long end of the treasury curve. The question was how far above that floor Bessent would go. On Wednesday, the Treasury announced the scale of its first expanded buyback. In the event, Bessent did more than the minimum, but not enough to cap yields.
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A China Tech Report Card
Arthur Kroeber, AJ Cortese, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 9 Sep 2026
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Over the past year Gavekal Technologies has tracked China’s progress across a range of tech sectors. Today we take a step back and try to assess its overall capabilities. First, outside a handful of areas, China is still more of a fast follower than a global pace-setter. Second, China’s well-documented manufacturing dominance is mainly in products of medium or low complexity. Finally, China’s tech ecosystem still relies heavily on foreign-sourced components, equipment and intellectual property.
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Video: Germany And European Political Risk
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 9 Sep 2026 Video
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The Alternative für Deutschland’s record 44% showing in Saxony-Anhalt has made global headlines, but German equities, bonds and the euro have barely reacted. In this interview, Cedric explains why the near-term economic and financial implications are likely to be limited and why the result should be seen more as a political signal than a template for Germany as a whole. Longer term, however, the AfD’s growing momentum in Europe’s largest economy deserves attention, particularly if Germany’s political firewall against the party begins to weaken.
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Why Won’t Beijing Step On The Gas?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 9 Sep 2026
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China has cheap capital, competitive labor and energy costs and world-class infrastructure, yet its economy continues to underwhelm, and Beijing remains reluctant to stimulate aggressively. There is a range of explanations that Louis reviews in this report, but a key one may be the geopolitical threat to China’s energy supplies, which gives policymakers another reason to restrain domestic demand. If these pressures ease, China has ample room to loosen policy, potentially giving Chinese equities a stronger “policy put” than most Western markets.
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No Good Outcomes For Energy Inflation
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 9 Sep 2026
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It is Wednesday. Warring parties in the Middle East are again exchanging fire, and energy prices are spiking. For investors, it may be tempting to shrug off the latest flare-up, but disregarding the latest escalation in the Persian Gulf would be rash. Developments in the region will matter greatly for the trajectory of inflation over the coming months, and therefore for financial markets.
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The Capex Correction Continues
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 9 Sep 2026
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Listed Chinese companies started to dial back their capital expenditures around 2024, and the investment restraint is continuing in 2026. Thomas argues that current rates of corporate investment are only enough to offset depreciation and are not adding to total production capacity—and persistently weak domestic demand means that this subdued pace will continue through the next year and beyond.
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Stability Begets Instability
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 8 Sep 2026
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There is little sign of stress in private-sector credit markets today, but that does not mean the conditions for the next financial crisis are absent, says Charles. Instead, strains may be emerging between sovereign borrowers sharing fixed exchange rates, notably the US and Hong Kong and, more importantly, within the eurozone. France looks particularly vulnerable, with deteriorating debt dynamics raising the risk of a financial reckoning.
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Market Signals From The Yen And US Bonds
Anatole Kaletsky / Gavekal Research | 8 Sep 2026
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This summer, three cases of mispricing escalated into what Anatole called “market madness”. The obvious one, which everybody has discussed, is the speculation in AI-related equities. But the two other mispricings are arguably even more important: the crazy cheapness of the yen; and the irrational faith among bond investors that the Fed will return inflation to its 2% target.
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