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The Successes And Failures Of US Export Controls
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 4 Dec 2025
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Since 2019, Washington has implemented a series of technology export controls on China with the broad objectives of slowing its ability to develop advanced AI and build an indigenous semiconductor ecosystem. The idea is to to protect US national security given AI’s dual-use nature, and to preserve US technological leadership. These measures take the form of country-wide and entity-specific restrictions. They cover exports of advanced chips, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, and US-person support services, with extraterritorial reach for some items.
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Noteworthy Recent Market Trends
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Dec 2025
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It’s been a busy few weeks in global financial markets, with the run-up in AI shares appearing to falter, crypto going into reverse, gold miners going gangbusters, the yen slipping back, Latin American debt making further gains and energy stocks finding a footing. Louis examines each of these developments through the lenses of fundamentals, valuation, momentum and investor positioning.
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The Catastrophe
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 4 Dec 2025
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Last week, Louis Gave argued that pressure on Europe to accept a peace in Ukraine forced by Washington and Moscow threatened it with an existential crisis. In this piece. Didier looks more closely at the notion of catastrophe as it shapes nature, economics and even religion. He uses a multi-disciplinary approach to get insights relevant to those who must manage money.
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The Knot In My Stomach (Part II)
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 4 Dec 2025
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In this piece, Charles elaborates further on the economic anomaly he wrote about on Tuesday, asking whether the failure of exchange rates to adjust the result of random movements of capital which will one day be corrected, or the result of deliberate policies followed by China and Japan.
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Video: All To Play For In Hungary
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 3 Dec 2025 Video
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With around four months to go until Hungary’s April 2026 general election, the party of long-serving prime minister Victor Orban is trailing in the polls. In this video interview, Gavekal’s European economist Cedric Gemehl surveys the Hungarian political landscape and examines what a potential defeat for the Russophile prime minister could mean.
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Import Growth Goes Away
Thomas Gatley / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Dec 2025
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One of US President Donald Trump’s main asks of Chinese top leader Xi Jinping during talks in October was for China to start buying US soybeans again. It reveals an important dynamic: China’s trading partners are not only concerned about its surge of exports, but about its flat-lining demand for imports. Thomas argues that it’s increasingly hard for countries that are not big exporters of raw commodities to find things China actually wants to buy.
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More Than AI
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 3 Dec 2025
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US electricity consumption is rising. This is largely because of the build-out of power-hungry AI data centers. But not wholly. The increasing electrification of the economy, including the adoption of electric cars, is also driving the growth of power demand—growth will continue even if the AI frenzy in the stock market cools and data center capex diminishes.
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Vietnam’s Big Bang Reforms
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 2 Dec 2025
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Vietnam’s economy is being turbocharged by the biggest reforms in 40 years. The new plan—to slash red tape, boost the private sector, and invest in vast capital projects—could cement Vietnam’s status as perhaps the world’s most dynamic emerging economy. Some observers are asking whether To Lam, who took over as top leader last year, could do for Vietnam what Lee Kuan Yew did for Singapore. In this piece, Tom assesses the Vietnam growth story.
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The Knot In My Stomach
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 2 Dec 2025
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With a few exceptions, the countries inside the Valeriepieris circle have large current account surpluses and massive foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the countries of the developed world—which predominantly lie outside the circle in Europe and North America—mostly run large budget deficits and have very large government debts. In the long run, this imbalance is unsustainable and is due for a rebalancing, says Charles, but the trend has only deepened.
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Do Export Controls Work?
Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Research | 1 Dec 2025
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China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
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