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The US-China AI Race And Rare Earth Controls
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 30 Oct 2025
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Prominent voice in China urges rare earth controls on TSMC. Chinese view of Meta’s AI layoff. Chinese AI models expand influence in Africa.
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Video: Netherlands Returns To The Center
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 30 Oct 2025 Video
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Dutch politics seems to have nudged back to the center ground after Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered a setback in Wednesday’s general election. In this interview, Cedric explores what this means for the Netherlands' stance in Europe and whether it points to the populist wave peaking for other non-traditional right-wing parties in Europe.
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Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 30 Oct 2025
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The intrinsic value of any asset is related to the notion of either scarcity or efficiency, and sometimes both together. Didier uses this analytical framing to consider the current value proposition of the world’s most liquid asset classes— those constantly subject to price adjustment—namely government debt, publicly-listed equities and gold.
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What Lies Behind The Euro Credit Issuance Surge?
August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 30 Oct 2025
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Companies have issued euro-denominated bonds at a relentless pace this year, with the surge extending beyond eurozone entities. The key question is whether this reflects temporary pricing advantages, or a longer-term shift in financing patterns driven by improving European conditions and growing challenges across the Atlantic.
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A Rally Or A Bull Market?
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 29 Oct 2025
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Combined, the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen equity markets make China the world’s second largest by capitalization. It should therefore be the first port of call for investors seeking to diversify away from an increasingly richly-valued US market. Yet, most investors maintain minimal, or even non-existent exposure to Chinese equities. In this report, Louis asks whether they are right to do so. That depends whether what is unfolding is a familiar rally that fizzles out, or a new bull market.
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Ample Liquidity Means An End To QT
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 29 Oct 2025
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Framed as a “risk management” move to counter labor market weakness rather than the start of a new easing cycle, the Federal Reserve seems set to cut interest rates by another -25bp. But the more interesting question is what the Fed will signal about its balance sheet policy. Will looks at the state of US bank reserves and concludes that the Fed will likely end QT sooner rather than later.
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The Place Of Consumers In The Plan
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 29 Oct 2025
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China’s next five-year plan will give more prominence to households and consumption than ever before, according to the instructions from top leader Xi Jinping published this week. Andrew argues that these shifts in rhetoric and social policy are significant, though whether those efforts will make a decisive difference to the economy’s overall trajectory is another question.
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Silver Linings For Europe’s Exporters
August Gudmundsson, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 28 Oct 2025
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It has been a tough year for Europe’s exporters. On one hand, they have been hammered by US tariffs. On the other, the appreciation of the euro has eroded their competitiveness against Chinese rivals. There is no reason to believe these headwinds will disappear in 2026, but despite widespread pessimism, the picture for European exporters is not wholly gloomy.
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East-West Differences And The Gold Price
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 28 Oct 2025
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Given the recent surge—and subsequent pullback—in gold prices, it is unsurpisingly a hot topic. Louis offers his thoughts on the key drivers of the gold bull market by analyzing demand and supply dynamics of gold ETFs and major countries' monetary policies.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: Working On Credibility
Tom Miller, Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 27 Oct 2025
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President Donald Trump arrived in Malaysia on Sunday for an Asian swing that will include his first second-term visit to an Asean summit and a meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping where he will probably sign a trade-war truce. Yet Tom Miller contends he will have a hard time restoring the credibility of the US strategic commitment to Southeast Asia. Tom Holland considers another test for US credibility in the shape of new oil sanctions on Russia, which markets seem to think will be ineffective.
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