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Geoeconomic Monitor: The War Takes Its Toll
Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 3 Apr 2026
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is cashing in on the war by charging the vessels of “friendly” countries a steep fee to sail through the Straits of Hormuz. If the world has to get used to paying more such fees, there will be long-term implications for global trade, writes Tom Holland. Tom Miller looks at the impact on Taiwan’s chip fabrication industry of the interruption of shipments of liquefied natural gas and helium from the Persian Gulf.
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Valuing Value
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 3 Apr 2026
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In recent years, value stocks—including energy, materials and industrials—have traded at a generous discount to growth stocks, especially technology-sector growth stocks. But since November 2025, much of that excess valuation discount has been eliminated. So, does it still make sense for investors to hold US value?
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Crazy For OpenClaw
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 3 Apr 2026
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While China’s ecosystem for artificial intelligence has many things going for it, what it has so far lacked is a demonstrated willingness to pay for AI services among ordinary Chinese households. But Tilly argues that after the past month’s frenzy over OpenClaw, an open-source platform for AI agents, that seems to be changing: Chinese consumers are finally showing they will pay for at least some AI services.
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Alibaba Has A New AI Chip
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 2 Apr 2026
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Alibaba unveils 5nm RISC-V CPU; Google TurboQuant and the memory sell-off; Nikon eyes China market opportunities.
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The Market’s Take On Global Trade
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 2 Apr 2026
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It goes without saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a big deal for the global economy. However, markets have not reacted with the apocalyptic pricing response one might have expected. "Why so?" asks Didier. He seeks to answer this question using a usually reliable market-based signal for the global economic cycle involving the Swiss and Swedish equity markets.
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The Eurozone Duration Question
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 2 Apr 2026
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Since the bond market sell-off of 2022, investors with long time horizons benefited from keeping eurozone government bond duration short. But since the start of the Iran war, long-dated eurozone government bond yields have climbed by nearly 50bp. So, is now the time to extend duration?
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Video: Collateral Damage In US Housing
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 1 Apr 2026 Video
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It is not just US retail gasoline prices that have risen since the start of the Iran war. Long-dated US treasury yields are also up, which implies higher interest rates for new mortgage loans. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian assesses the impact on US housing affordability and examines whether the US government will implement damage control measures.
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The Sell-Off In Defense Stocks
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 1 Apr 2026
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It has been a good year, and a bad month, for global defense stocks. The good year is understandable: European and Japanese defense budgets were boosted, the Ukraine war did not come to an end, the Red Sea remained blocked. Perhaps more surprising is the March faceplant in defense stocks. Since the Iran war started, global defense stocks have shed a quick -12%, almost in a straight line. So why the violent pull-back?
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China Finally Makes SOEs Pay Up
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 1 Apr 2026
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For more than two decades, a hidden battle has raged inside China’s bureaucracy over how to use the profits earned by state-owned enterprises. That battle has long gone in favor of the SOEs, who have been able to retain most profits for their own use. But as Andrew explains in this piece, in 2025 the tide turned, and the government extracted significantly more money from SOEs than ever before.
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The Consequences Of Oil Price Spikes
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 31 Mar 2026
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In a long career, Charles has seen more than a dozen major energy price spikes—more than enough to be familiar with the macro and market consequences. In this Chartbook he sets these out for readers: higher real rates at the long end, declining corporate profitability, a structural derating of equity markets, with scarcity assets outperforming efficiency assets. And usually, someone blows up.
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