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Geoeconomic Monitor: Dominance Diminished
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2026
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Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach of solving problems by exerting US dominance is running into trouble in Iran, argues Arthur Kroeber. Meanwhile, Tom Holland examines the implications of the latest attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, Arthur looks ahead to the postponed summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, and Tom Miller examines how in the long term, China may emerge as the economic victor from the war in Iran.
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Video: Japan's Macro Dilemma
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2026 Video
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Thursday saw an awkward meeting between Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi and US president Donald Trump in the White House. The east Asian powerhouse wants to stay out of the US-led war in Iran but is massively reliant on gas and oil imported from the Persian Gulf. Udith explores the dilemmas faced by Japan’s policymakers, as they seek to weather an energy shock without sparking an adverse stagflationary economic cycle.
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Consuming Through An Energy Shock
Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2026
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As hydrocarbon prices surge amid tit-for-tat attacks against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, European households look exposed. Last week, we argued that this energy crisis was less threatening than the one Europe faced after Russia invaded Ukraine. Even so, the impact will depend on the size and duration of the disruption as well as the response of labor markets, fiscal policy and household saving rates.
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The Property Bottom Is Not Yet Here
Xiaoxi Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 20 Mar 2026
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China’s policymakers appear unfazed by the continued housing-market decline, and contend that the market “has entered a bottoming phase.” Xiaoxi examines the evidence and finds the government’s argument uncompelling: with officials unlikely to provide much support and ongoing supply-demand imbalances in many cities, the property market will probably not bottom in 2026.
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Another Round Of Analog Chip Price Hikes
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 19 Mar 2026
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Chinese analog makers expect profitability lift; AI compute and cloud rental prices rise in China; Japan uses US and Chinese tech for humanoids; China’s chip export rises on memory surge.
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Winners And Losers Of The Iran War
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 19 Mar 2026
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In warfare there are mostly losers, says Louis, and the conflict in the Middle East is no exception for the people and nations directly involved. However, among economic actors, war produces both winners and losers. In this report, Louis attempts to identify them.
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Bearish Gold
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 19 Mar 2026
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Gold looks increasingly vulnerable to a major correction. The rally of the past two years, which has seen the price more than double, was been driven by several factors. Monetary easing by the central banks since mid-2024 supported prices, official and private investors sought diversification in the metal, and there were concerns over Federal Reserve independence. At least two of these drivers now appear to be weakening.
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Time To Move To An Indian ‘Turkish Portfolio’
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 18 Mar 2026
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India’s economy has been sideswiped by the fallout from the US-led war against Iran. However, Charles argues that its fundamental drivers seem solid and investors should be looking to build positions in Indian equities. In this piece, he says that investors should do this by adopting a “Turkish portfolio” approach to Indian investment.
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More Resilient Than You Think
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 18 Mar 2026
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“Economic activity is nothing but energy transformed,” as Charles often intones. When the Iran war began on February 28, oil and gas prices spiked and global equities sold off. But US companies are better positioned than most to absorb prolonged higher energy costs if Middle Eastern oil and gas supply remains disrupted, because they have become more adept at “transforming” energy.
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China’s Continuing Competitiveness
Andrew Batson / Gavekal Dragonomics | 18 Mar 2026
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The boom in China’s exports after 2022 has rested on two pillars: strong global demand and improving Chinese competitiveness. Andrew argues that while global demand is starting to look wobblier due to the US war with Iran, China’s competitive position relative to other exporters should stay very strong—suggesting it is too early for China’s trading partners to count on much relief yet.
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