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Geoeconomic Monitor: After Venezuela, What Next?
Tom Holland, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 9 Jan 2026
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The dramatic US abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has created the impression that everything is now on the table for US military action. But although the US intervention in Venezuela means the world must take Donald Trump’s threats against other antagonists seriously, domestic electoral considerations will circumscribe the US president’s scope for action.
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Can Emerging Markets Do It Again?
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 9 Jan 2026
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The MSCI EM equity index rose 32% in US dollar terms in 2025. This was the first year since 2017 that the EM benchmark outperformed US equities. That track record suggests that investors should be cautious about expecting another year of EM outperformance in 2026. But Udith argues that the current backdrop of growth, liquidity and valuations suggests EMs could be primed to repeat their outperformance in 2026.
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The Reset For The Renminbi
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 9 Jan 2026
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The renminbi has started off 2026 in eye-catching fashion, gaining about 1% against the dollar over the past month to strengthen past CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. But Wei argues that it’s still an open question whether the central bank is willing to accept a broader appreciation on a trade-weighted basis, absent a stronger recovery in domestic demand.
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What To Watch In 2026
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 8 Jan 2026
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The year 2025 was pivotal for US–China semiconductor and AI development. It saw a rollback of US AI chip export controls under President Trump and DeepSeek's breakthrough that shifted competition toward software innovation and open-source models. Chinese firms found workarounds to controls while advancing indigenously, and Beijing continued to expand support for the semiconductor sector. In 2026, US policy may pivot from export controls toward broader tools to extend US spheres of influence and constrain China's, amid intensifying competition across the AI stack. It will also be an acid test for China’s tech rally, as companies must deliver earnings that justify elevated valuations. This report outlines the top AI and semiconductor themes to watch in 2026.
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Global Strategy: Best And Worst Trades For 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, August Gudmundsson, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 8 Jan 2026
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Past performance is no guide to future returns, and the trend is not always your friend. As such, Gavekal writers consider their most compelling 10 macro trades for 2026, on both the upside and the downside. If one theme runs through our developed-market views, it is the expectation for a sustained inflationary boom. That story is different in China, but Chinese firms look to be on the right side of an energy transition with room to run. The view on gold is nuanced, especially seen through the lens of Japanese investors facing extreme asset valuations.
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Climbing Everest In A Trump Storm
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 8 Jan 2026
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Back in early 2025, Steve Bannon (Donald Trump’s former adviser) explained that the president’s strategy would be to make every day a “day of thunder.” If Trump comes out with 100 things at once, the media is overwhelmed and the Trump agenda can be pushed through, even in the face of a hostile media. This warning from Bannon has lately felt somewhat prophetic.
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Video: French Risk In 2026
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 8 Jan 2026 Video
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France accounts for around a quarter of outstanding sovereign debt in the eurozone and continues to be plagued by political instability. Over the Christmas break, the French government tried and again failed to pass a national budget. The worry is that such uncertainty starts to undermine economic confidence and tip the economy into a recession. Cedric acknowledges these risks but in this video explains why he thinks that France will not upset the European apple cart.
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The Manager’s Unspoken Truth
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 7 Jan 2026
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Ask an asset manager why they are buying equities and there is one answer you will never hear: “Because the market is rising and everyone else is buying.” Admit it, and one’s professional reputation, along with any justification for charging fees, quickly unravels. Yet behavioral effects do not disappear just because they are inconvenient for professionals to acknowledge. Such factors shape financial markets every day. In this report, Didier asks, what today is the manager’s unspoken truth?
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On The Need To Stockpile Commodities
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 7 Jan 2026
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The reason that over decades the world’s central banks stockpiled US treasuries was simple: in case of an emergency, they could be quickly transformed into whatever the situation might require. Louis argues that if US treasury reserves are mostly there to be transformed into commodities in a crisis, then the upshot of the US intervention in Venezuela would be for central banks to directly stockpile commodities instead.
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Consumer Support Loses Its Punch
Ernan Cui / Gavekal Dragonomics | 7 Jan 2026
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Where is China’s much-heralded shift to supporting consumption headed in 2026? Ernan argues that the government’s new plan for consumer subsidies suggests the program will be scaled back, and other household support measures in the pipeline appear limited. In total, new household and consumer benefits will be more restrained this year than in 2025.
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