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Video: Trump’s Economic Coercion Escalates
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 27 Aug 2026 Video
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The Trump administration seems to be entering a new phase of economic coercion, as tariffs, secondary sanctions and tighter trade enforcement increasingly work together. In this video interview, Tom considers the latest tariff moves against Canada and Brazil, the legal status of the broader US tariff regime and the looming crackdown on illegal transshipments through countries integrated into Chinese supply chains. He assesses whether these measures are setting the stage for a renewed escalation of the US-China trade war.
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The Good, The Bad And The Ugly For Eurozone Bonds
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 27 Aug 2026
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Energy prices have picked up since late June, once again pushing inflation expectations higher and leading markets to price in more ECB rate hikes. But broadly, energy prices remain below their March highs. In contrast, eurozone sovereign bond yields are now well above their March high. This suggests that there are other forces beyond energy prices driving up eurozone yields. These forces can be divided into three categories: the good, the bad and the ugly.
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Alibaba’s AI Conundrum
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 27 Aug 2026
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AI-related investments are putting greater pressure on Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba)’s earnings and cash flow. In the June quarter (calendar 2Q26, Alibaba’s fiscal 1Q27), group revenue rose 9% YoY, but net income dropped 75% YoY.
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Are US Long Bonds A Buy? (Part I)
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 26 Aug 2026
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In the first part of his series on US long bonds, Will asks whether the Treasury’s new twist operation could improve the outlook. By buying back long-term debt and potentially shifting issuance toward shorter maturities, the Treasury is creating a more supportive backdrop for long bonds, even as the Federal Reserve moves gradually in the opposite direction. Fed independence remains critical: the Treasury can help suppress long yields, but any perception of “fiscal dominance” that pushes up inflation expectations could quickly undo the gains.
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Scott Bessent And The Four Quadrants
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 26 Aug 2026
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Almost all policy settings have cranked up the inflationary dials. Looking at the four quadrants first laid out by Charles in 1974, we have been, and are thus likely to remain, on the inflationary part of the grid. Unless, of course, some of the policy dials start to shift. With that in mind, what could bring us back into the lower, deflationary half of the four quadrants?
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The Renminbi After Bessent’s Interventions
Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 26 Aug 2026
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The US dollar index is down about 2.4% since late July, following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s interventions in financial markets. But Wei argues that the People’s Bank of China has resisted market pressure for renminbi appreciation, confirming its turn to a more cautious stance on the currency in 2026. That suggests the renminbi will probably not move a lot more in the coming months.
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Falling OATs And A Divided France
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 25 Aug 2026
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As the 2027 presidential election approaches, France’s deepening social and political divisions are becoming an increasingly important risk for financial markets, says Louis. With French government debt already under pressure, an election that brings to power either the hard left or populist right could trigger policy responses and events that test foreign investors’ willingness to keep financing a country whose fiscal position has steadily deteriorated.
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Four Charts To Watch
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 25 Aug 2026
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Today, four charts ranging from the spreads of French and Dutch government bonds and the ratio of S&P 500 to oil bear watching, argues Charles. The risk is that if one measure breaches certain historical thresholds, the other three will follow, resulting in a world of trouble for markets.
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Why China Looks More Stable Than America
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 24 Aug 2026
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Charles wonders why markets can look irrational in the short term while revealing remarkable consistency over the long run. He argues that the relative performance of scarcity and productive assets ultimately reflects the stability of the monetary and financial system in which they operate. On that basis, the contrast between the US and China increasingly points toward China as the more stable system for long-term investors.
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The Investment Consequences Of The US-Canada Trade Spat
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 24 Aug 2026
Unlike European leaders, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney elected to walk away from what he felt was a bad trade deal for his country. In time, this could end up having an important political cost for him. Ontario, the industrial heartland of Canada but also the core base of Carney’s Liberal Party, will likely bear the brunt of the economic fallout of the breakdown in US-Canadian trade. So why would Carney take such a risk? There are many possible explanations.
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