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The Impacts Of War On US Consumption
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 13 Mar 2026
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A sustained war in the Middle East that drives energy prices sharply higher would normally be expected to weigh on US consumption. The key question is how large the effect may be. To answer that, Will and Kai Xian consider the channels through which this faraway conflict could affect the US consumer: energy prices, energy investment, interest rates and wealth effects.
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Europe’s Energy Shock: Not 2022 All Over Again
Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 13 Mar 2026
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Europe remains a large net importer of energy, so higher global energy prices typically translate into higher inflation and weaker growth. The question for investors is whether the latest shock will prove as severe as Europe’s 2022 energy crisis. Cedric argues that the Old Continent will probably take a softer punch this time around, and analyzes the impact on its assets.
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China Targets Full-Chain Chip Breakthrough
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 12 Mar 2026
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China targets full-chain chip breakthrough; Nvidia’s B300 in high demand in China; China’s new national M&A fund.
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Video: How Long A US Haven?
Tan Kai Xian / Gavekal Research | 12 Mar 2026 Video
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Since the United States-led war against Iran started, US assets have received a safe-haven bid. This reverses a narrative that had taken hold among global investors before the outbreak of hostilities to sell an increasingly unreliable America. The argument had developed that the US was proving a bad partner and pursuing currency debasement policies. In this video interview, Kai Xian discusses whether such a “sell America” trade had ever actually started and, looking through this war, what happens next to capital flows.
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Asia’s Energy Shock
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 12 Mar 2026
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The recovery in Asian markets stalled on Thursday, despite the International Energy Agency’s decision to release 400mn barrels of oil from global strategic reserves. Asia’s outsized reliance on trade routes via the Strait of Hormuz means it remains vulnerable to the oil and gas squeeze in the Middle East. For Asia’s emerging economies especially, this spells weaker currencies, rising bond yields and slower growth.
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Out Of Deflation, Into Cost-Push Inflation
Thomas Gatley, Wei He / Gavekal Dragonomics | 12 Mar 2026
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The rise in global oil prices driven by the unfolding Iran conflict has one silver lining for China: it will make it easier for the government to fulfill its pledge to “steer general price levels back into positive territory.” The mechanical effects of higher commodity costs will almost certainly drive headline price measures out of their long run of deflation in coming months. But Thomas and Wei point out that cost-push inflation in an environment of weak demand is going to be negative for China’s corporate margins, investment and real growth.
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Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 11 Mar 2026
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The broad market shock induced by the Iran War has thus far been contained, says Didier. In this piece, he seeks insights from oil-market pricing to test if that reaction is justified. By looking at the dynamics in the spot and futures markets for crude, he concludes that investors are being rational and should keep the faith with risk assets.
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Exogenous Shocks And Bond Returns
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 11 Mar 2026
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As the Iran war drags on, the current equilibrum looks increasingly unstable, argues Louis. In this piece, he presents three distinct scenarios for the war to unfold in the near future, with different implications for assets across the world and concludes investors should shun OECD government bonds in favor of energy.
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Pressure Builds On Local Officials
Andrew Batson, Tilly Zhang, Christopher Beddor / Gavekal Dragonomics | 11 Mar 2026
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Already under fire from anti-corruption investigators and the anti-involution campaign, local officials must this year go through a high-pressure assessment process linked to a regular personnel reshuffle. Top leader Xi Jinping is using this moment to reinforce his message that local officials need to heed central dictates and stop chasing GDP growth—creating a political climate that strongly favors structural adjustment over short-term growth.
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Exchange Rates And Oil Shocks
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 10 Mar 2026
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Charles defines a large move in the price of oil as a change of more than 40% over the previous six months. In this Daily, he explores how the oil shock will affect major currencies and gold, and how to hedge against a further escalation in energy prices.
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