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On The Ground At The 2026 World AI Conference (Part II)
Laila Khawaja, Huang Shichan / Gavekal Technologies: Chips | 30 Jul 2026
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The 2026 WAIC showcased thousands of competitive AI products targeting consumer, enterprise, and government adoption. Competition is expanding beyond foundational models toward enterprise solutions and next-generation consumer-AI interfaces, including agentic smartphones and humanoid robots. Despite strong investment, policy support, and expanding pilots, commercialization remains constrained by uncertain revenue models, high computing costs, integration barriers, and uncertain legal frameworks.
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Currency Momentum Trading
Didier Darcet / Gavekal-IS | 30 Jul 2026
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Currencies have long resisted traditional economic models, yet one simple pattern has proved remarkably persistent: short-term momentum. Didier revisits a systematic strategy first introduced in 2022, showing that it has continued to outperform while extending naturally beyond fiat currencies to gold and oil. The result is a straightforward quantitative framework that offers a fresh perspective on trading money in all its forms.
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Video: Towards An Uncertain Winter For Energy
Tom Holland / Gavekal Research | 30 Jul 2026 Video
With the US-Iran war now five months old, and with no negotiated peace in sight, energy-importing economies must face up to the prospect that supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter approaches. With the European Union’s stores of natural gas already unusually depleted for the time of year, Tom Holland considers the possible consequences for Europe’s economies.
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Talky Talky
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 30 Jul 2026
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Kevin Warsh has promised to reshape the Federal Reserve, but after two meetings the institution looks very familiar. Will examines why the Fed chose to leave interest rates unchanged despite inflation remaining above target and argues that recent inflation data and tighter financial conditions gave policymakers room to wait rather than act. The key question for investors is whether this caution reflects a lack of resolve, or simply confidence that rates can still be raised later if inflation reaccelerates.
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Banks, The Fed And A Trailblazing BoJ
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 30 Jul 2026
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Over the past 30 years, the Bank of Japan has almost always been the first to engage in what could best be described as unconventional monetary policy. In the latest example, over the past few years, the BoJ has sat on its hands as inflation accelerated and the long end of the Japanese government bond market sold off. The result has been a massive currency devaluation and a dramatic improvement in Japanese fiscal balances. Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, bond markets are starting to catch on that where the BoJ led, most other central banks will follow.
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Making Sense Of The Semiconductor Jitters
Udith Sikand / Gavekal Research | 29 Jul 2026
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The jitters in global chip stocks seen in recent weeks show few signs of abating. The benign take of this repricing is that, after a strong run-up in recent months, markets are simply consolidating as momentum-chasing investors have overextended themselves. The more sinister view is that the semiconductor boom’s fundamentals are starting to unravel.
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The Next Challengers In Memory Chips
Tilly Zhang / Gavekal Dragonomics | 29 Jul 2026
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The global shortage of memory chips brought by the artificial-intelligence boom has accelerated China’s ambitions in the sector. Two state-backed national champions have burned through a decade of losses as they built capacity and capability in the capital-intensive business. Now, with demand and prices surging, their trajectory toward commercial viability has suddenly shifted. In this piece, Tilly surveys the prospects for CXMT Corp., the DRAM specialist, and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp., the NAND specialist.
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Neither US Exceptionalism Nor A European Boom: Macro Edition
Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl / Gavekal Research | 28 Jul 2026
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As enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence investment theme fades, investors are again questioning US exceptionalism. Last year, we identified four factors that contributed to US exceptionalism and European pessimism between 2008 and 2024. More than a year on, all four remain relevant—but not all are moving in the same direction. It is time to reassess what has changed and what it means for investors.
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What Just Happened, Kimi?
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber, Tom Hancock / Gavekal Technologies: Briefing | 27 Jul 2026
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The US tech world spent much of the past 10 days freaking out over the latest high-performance Chinese AI model release, Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3. This once again conjured the specter of cheap open-weight Chinese models blowing up the revenue engines for their more costly American competitors. Shortly afterwards, Chinese open models went from villain to hero, as the US-based developer community Hugging Face used a Chinese model to fend off a rogue cyber attack by an OpenAI model.
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Who Is Copying Who? Part IV
Louis-Vincent Gave / Gavekal Research | 27 Jul 2026
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The growing push to restrict Chinese AI models could mark a major escalation in US-China tensions—and a watershed for the US economy. Louis argues that a ban would protect US tech giants at the expense of start-ups, consumers and productivity, while accelerating the fragmentation of the global technology system. Over time, the result could be weaker US equities, a softer dollar and higher bond yields, raising the question of whether such a policy would truly serve the public good or merely entrench corporate power.
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