Gavekal Technologies attended several semiconductor and AI events in China, including Semicon China 2026. This is the first of a two-part series summarizing our key findings. This year’s events reflected a more balanced and pragmatic tone. While the official messaging emphasized global cooperation, Beijing is clear in its intent to build alternative technology paths independent of foreign technologies.
China’s effective use of its rare earths leverage has created a cottage industry of figuring out what the next chokepoint might be. Pharmaceuticals are a popular candidate but there is very little chance that Beijing will seek to weaponize pharmaceutical ingredients. China depends at least as much on the US for pharma inputs as the US relies on China.