Gavekal Technologies

Dario Amodei’s call to pace frontier AI development has sharpened a US divide between safety advocates and accelerationists. The innate prisoner’s dilemma among leading labs makes coordinated slowdown unlikely. China recognizes many of the same risks but rejects US-led standard setting and the use of safety to justify technology containment aimed at China. China also favors risk management through regulations and state intervention over slowdown. Given these divisions and the broader US-China rivalry, bilateral talks are unlikely to produce binding agreements. Continued dialogue, crisis-communication channels, and narrow cooperation are the most plausible outcomes.

Over the past year Gavekal Technologies has explored most corners of China’s vast and unique energy system, with a particular focus on how electrification is transforming China’s economy and its position in the world. We have now distilled our insights into our first annual China New Energy Guidebook. This concise presentation outlines China’s strategies for its energy and electricity systems, assesses the progress of wind, solar and nuclear deployment, and analyzes the key electricity related sectors: batteries, electric vehicles, AI and the “electrotech stack.”