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Gavekal Technologies, Chips
The Power Of Politics
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber, Tilly Zhang, Wei He, Tom Hancock
11 Aug 2025
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we explore the many forces at work trying to influence US-China talks on export controls, the risks to China’s booming pharmaceutical sector from security rules in Washington, and Beijing’s political campaign to undo the excess capacity in solar energy gear that a previous political campaign created.
Gavekal Technologies, Chips
China’s AI Jamboree: Nvidia In The Hotseat
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber
8 Aug 2025
In part 2 of our readout from China's World Artificial Intelligence Conference, we break down why the Chinese government is simultaneously facilitating the gray-market import of Nvidia chips and also subjecting it to a probe by the Cyberspace Administration over alleged backdoors.
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China’s AI Jamboree: Takeaways From WAIC
Gavekal Technologies analysts attended the World Artificial Intelligence Conference on July 26-29 in Shanghai, where over 800 companies showcased China’s AI supply chain. This Chips Insight, the first in a two-parter that will complete next week, reveals that Nvidia’s banned chips remain widely available, that the AI race continues although there’s no “killer app”, and that the government is backing the humanoid “bubble”.
Uneasy Chip Truce, Funding The VC State, Biotech Boom
Breaking up is hard to do. The US and China may both be deeply uncomfortable with how their economies have become intertwined, but decoupling may be even more uncomfortable. In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, Laila Khawaja explains why the US decided to let Nvidia resume selling high-end chips to China, Tom Hanock reports that the boom in Chinese biotech depends on access to the US market, and Arthur Kroeber reviews a brilliant new book about the deep symbiosis between Apple and Chinese state capitalism. Also, Tilly Zhang examines state capitalism’s latest efforts to make its finances more efficient.
Huawei’s Triumph
Huawei regains the top spot in smartphone sales. The third IC fund gets ready for action. Pitfalls of semiconductor M&A.
Chinese View Of The H20 Ban Lift
Chinese view on the H20 ban lift. Manus “decouples” from China. Beijing greenlights Synopsys-Ansys merger.
Electricity, Chip Self-Reliance, EV Price Wars
Our analysts explain why China’s electricity dominance guarantees manufacturing dominance; what it will take for China to overcome its deep reliance on imported microchips; how electric vehicle makers will survive a vicious price war; and why Chinese humanoid robots are not ready for prime time. And a book review asks whether it is really true that the US is still the best in the world at deploying new technologies.
Huawei Faces Credibility Scandal
Huawei faces viral plagiarism allegations over AI model. Beijing takes measures to curb rare earth brain drain. And DeepSeek R2 delay is not due to US chip ban.