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Gavekal Technologies, Chips
China’s New DeepSeek Moment
Laila Khawaja
28 Aug 2025
DeepSeek update boosts outlook for Chinese AI stack. Xiaomi to launch next-generation chip in late 2026. Texas Instruments raises prices in China.
Gavekal Technologies, Chips
Lessons In Economic Statecraft
Laila Khawaja, Arthur Kroeber, Tom Hancock
25 Aug 2025
Global technology competition is increasingly defined by the ways in which states support their own tech ecosystems while trying to impede those of their rivals. Here, we examine how China supports new tech industries not just through subsidies but through conjuring up state-led demand, and dissect China’s role in the US pharmaceutical supply chain to assess how much risk the sector faces from American tariffs and import restrictions.
More research
The AI Bubble View From China
The AI bubble view from China. The global AI diffusion race: focus on talent training. Huawei unveils new software to reduce HBM reliance.
Huawei Goes Open-Source
Huawei open-sources CANN; first steps towards a national AI compute network; the profitless progress of humanoid robots.
The Power Of Politics
In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we explore the many forces at work trying to influence US-China talks on export controls, the risks to China’s booming pharmaceutical sector from security rules in Washington, and Beijing’s political campaign to undo the excess capacity in solar energy gear that a previous political campaign created.
China’s AI Jamboree: Nvidia In The Hotseat
In part 2 of our readout from China's World Artificial Intelligence Conference, we break down why the Chinese government is simultaneously facilitating the gray-market import of Nvidia chips and also subjecting it to a probe by the Cyberspace Administration over alleged backdoors.
China’s AI Jamboree: Takeaways From WAIC
Gavekal Technologies analysts attended the World Artificial Intelligence Conference on July 26-29 in Shanghai, where over 800 companies showcased China’s AI supply chain. This Chips Insight, the first in a two-parter that will complete next week, reveals that Nvidia’s banned chips remain widely available, that the AI race continues although there’s no “killer app”, and that the government is backing the humanoid “bubble”.
Uneasy Chip Truce, Funding The VC State, Biotech Boom
Breaking up is hard to do. The US and China may both be deeply uncomfortable with how their economies have become intertwined, but decoupling may be even more uncomfortable. In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing, Laila Khawaja explains why the US decided to let Nvidia resume selling high-end chips to China, Tom Hanock reports that the boom in Chinese biotech depends on access to the US market, and Arthur Kroeber reviews a brilliant new book about the deep symbiosis between Apple and Chinese state capitalism. Also, Tilly Zhang examines state capitalism’s latest efforts to make its finances more efficient.