Gavekal Technologies

Chinese EV makers have conquered their home market and are on track to export over 5mn vehicles this year, double the 2025 figure. Their next move will be to start moving production offshore, to get closer to key markets and evade tariffs. The biggest target is Europe, where half a dozen projects are under way and many more are planned.

As presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their summit meeting in Washington, China’s fast-growing technology capabilities are a major topic. The big questions at the moment are how close Chinese artificial-intelligence labs are to matching the US frontier models, and whether the two sides can start negotiating rules on AI safety. But behind those lie even bigger questions: What is the balance of technological power between the US and China? And how far can the world's two big tech powers go in pulling apart the thick webs of interdependence that tie them together?