Gavekal Technologies

Beijing’s proposed AI export controls aim to protect national security and core technologies while preserving open-source commitment and overseas commercialization. Their impact will depend heavily on implementation. The many ambiguities in the draft rules could discourage Chinese firms’ international activity and Chinese open models’ overseas adoption, at a time when American open-weight alternatives are expanding.

The AI world suffered tremors last week, as doubts began to surface about the frontier labs’ revenue growth and the rising amount of high-priced debt used to finance the US’s data center building binge. The risks raise a question: when and if the American AI bubble pops, can China race ahead? Probably not.