Most recent
Gavekal-IS
Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
Didier Darcet
19 Feb 2026
How much money should an economy create, and at what interest rate, to ensure price stability, align the interests of lenders and borrowers, and unlock its full growth potential? In this piece, Didier stands on the shoulders of giants from the past to come up with an answer that is useful for investors.
Gavekal-IS
Time To Take Profits On Metals?
Didier Darcet
4 Feb 2026
January delivered a near 20% surge in metal prices, a move so rare that it has occurred only twice in the past 35 years. Despite the recent pickup in volatility, driven largely by margin-call changes in silver futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Didier says the fundamental question remains whether it is now time to take profits.
More research
The Big Long 2.0
It has been a turbulent start to 2026. But beneath the geopolitical sound and fury, global macro conditions are nicely aligned for an equity bull market. In particular, notes Didier, in the third quarter of 2025, productivity growth in the US outpaced real GDP growth—a rare and potentially powerful signal.
Measuring Imitation
In this week’s Gavekal-IS note, Didier looks at the movement of giant shoals of sardines to draw key lessons about the optimization of asset mixes within investment portfolios.
The Manager’s Unspoken Truth
Ask an asset manager why they are buying equities and there is one answer you will never hear: “Because the market is rising and everyone else is buying.” Admit it, and one’s professional reputation, along with any justification for charging fees, quickly unravels. Yet behavioral effects do not disappear just because they are inconvenient for professionals to acknowledge. Such factors shape financial markets every day. In this report, Didier asks, what today is the manager’s unspoken truth?
Gold And War
Some of the world’s first gold coins were minted 2,500-odd years ago in modern-day Turkey to pay the sovereign’s foreign mercenaries as he sought to counter the rising Persian Empire. Didier argues that gold’s origin story is inseparable from military spending—and that this linkage may still hold true today.
The Catastrophe
Last week, Louis Gave argued that pressure on Europe to accept a peace in Ukraine forced by Washington and Moscow threatened it with an existential crisis. In this piece. Didier looks more closely at the notion of catastrophe as it shapes nature, economics and even religion. He uses a multi-disciplinary approach to get insights relevant to those who must manage money.
AI Bashing
Artificial intelligence is everywhere, whether whispering through Main Street or roaring across Wall Street, as evidenced by Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings release. And with its rise comes a wave of critics saying the whole thing is a bubble on the verge of bursting, threatening to take trillions in investments down with it. But is this really insight, or just another round of AI bashing, asks Didier.