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Gavekal-IS
Abduction
Didier Darcet
4 Sep 2025
The American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce argued that abduction—not deduction or induction—represents the primary mode of human reasoning. For Didier, abduction lies behind scientific discovery, as well as most economic, financial and political analysis. In this piece he applies this insight to current dilemmas for portfolio managers.
Gavekal-IS
The Components Of Nominal Growth
Didier Darcet
21 Aug 2025
The single number that keeps governments solvent is nominal economic growth, as it corresponds directly to their ability to fund themselves. For investors, however, the real question is the growth mix: how much of nominal growth comes from a real expansion, and how much from inflation? That split decides whether equities or gold are the better option. In this piece, Didier extends this basic insight into an investment strategy.
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Lions And Financial Gazelles
Picture the financial markets as a vast savanna, where equities roam like lions and bonds graze as if they were gazelles, says Didier. In this piece, he considers the predator-prey dynamic between the two occupants of that land, which may offer more insight to investors than the steady-state assumptions of conventional finance theory.
TrackCoin: Managing Emotions In Crypto’s Wild West
At the end of 2022, Gavekal-IS launched a mobile app designed to help cryptocurrency investors navigate the emotional rollercoaster of this volatile asset class. In this report, Didier revisits the tool’s underlying logic and examines what its results reveal about speculative behavior.
Is It Time To Extend Duration?
Imagine that you are a fixed-income manager with no access to gold, says Didier. Should you start to look at long-term bonds, or is it better to stay in cash? And if duration risk is becoming more attractive, where in the world is that trend playing out? In this note, he aims to answer those questions.
Taking Profits On Gold? Really?
In September 2021, the monetary quadrants of Gavekal-IS turned decisively in favor of gold. Since then, the signal has never reversed. In other words, the debasement of long-term government bonds across 40 countries has continued unabated. Today, as a growing number of clients ask whether it is time to “take profits on gold,” Didier’s answer remains unchanged: sure, you could, but why would you?
The Nature Of Risk Is Changing
Instability is increasingly rooted in geopolitical tensions and communication strategies, rather than in the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy, says Didier. In President Donald Trump’s case, he deploys a brand of diplomacy defined more by unpredictability than openly stated objectives. Didier explains how all this is shifting the calculus for asset allocation decisions.
The Value Of Time: Bond Yields And P/Es
When 10-year bond yields accelerate, market multiples tend to fall, says Didier. In this piece, he applies this basic insight to asset allocation strategies.