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Gavekal-IS
The End Of The Risk-Free Asset
Didier Darcet
23 Jul 2026
The foundation of modern finance—the assumption that long-dated US treasuries are the world's risk-free asset—is increasingly being called into question. Didier argues that the era of abundant savings and stable sovereign bonds is giving way to one of capital scarcity, forcing investors to rethink everything from valuation frameworks to portfolio construction. As central banks diversify into gold and bond markets become less reliable anchors, he explores what should replace the traditional risk-free rate and how investors can adapt.
Gavekal-IS
The Great Confusion Over Economic Quadrants
Didier Darcet
9 Jul 2026
Markets increasingly resemble an inflationary boom, but a longer-term perspective suggests the global economy is still digesting the inflation shock of 2021-23, says Didier. Using Gavekal-IS's seven-year framework, he explains why today's conflicting signals are less contradictory than they appear and why growth could reaccelerate later this year. For investors, it offers a disciplined framework for avoiding major macro pitfalls.
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The Bond Portfolio For A Swiss Investor
Swiss government bonds offer safety, but today that safety comes with a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. Didier asks whether investors can improve returns and reduce risk by diversifying part of their bond allocation into gold and the sovereign debt of countries benefiting from the changing global monetary order.
From Desacralization To Resacralization Of Power
For 5,000 years, political history has been a gradual process of stripping power of its sacred character. Didier argues that modern capitalism may be reversing that trend, with dual-class shares, founder control and AI governance creating a new form of authority detached from ownership and increasingly justified by mission rather than accountability. He explores why shareholders are willingly surrendering control and what that means for the future of capitalism.
A Baby Shower For Information As An Asset Class
Before year-end, futures contracts on computing power could begin trading in the US. Likely participants include AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, cloud giants such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, data-center operators and financial institutions like BlackRock. Didier argues that this is far more than the launch of another derivative contract. It may represent the creation of a new asset class: information itself.
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
The upcoming SpaceX IPO could become an epic wealth-creation event because so few shares are likely to be available for trading relative to the stock’s potential index weight. By allowing companies with limited free floats to exert outsized influence, the Nasdaq is effectively violating a basic principle of physics, argues Didier. The result may be explosive gains for early investors, but also a market that becomes increasingly unstable and dependent on passive flows.
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
The 21st century has no shortage of ideas. What it lacks is the ability to capitalize on them in tangible form, says Didier. The financial and physical capacity required to turn those ideas into reality seems to be the chief binding constraint of today’s economy. This is why the world may struggle to fund Asia's vast infrastructure needs and also the AI rollout, he says.
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
In last week’s note, Didier warned that declining energy productivity is likely to slow global growth. Since growth and corporate profits are closely linked, the implication is a weaker outlook for equities and a rational case for reducing exposure. But how robust is the relationship between growth and profits? In this report, Didier examines the question through the contrasting lenses of hard science and economics.