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Gavekal-IS
TrackCoin: Managing Emotions In Crypto’s Wild West
Didier Darcet
24 Jul 2025
At the end of 2022, Gavekal-IS launched a mobile app designed to help cryptocurrency investors navigate the emotional rollercoaster of this volatile asset class. In this report, Didier revisits the tool’s underlying logic and examines what its results reveal about speculative behavior.
Gavekal-IS
Is It Time To Extend Duration?
Didier Darcet
16 Jul 2025
Imagine that you are a fixed-income manager with no access to gold, says Didier. Should you start to look at long-term bonds, or is it better to stay in cash? And if duration risk is becoming more attractive, where in the world is that trend playing out? In this note, he aims to answer those questions.
More research
Taking Profits On Gold? Really?
In September 2021, the monetary quadrants of Gavekal-IS turned decisively in favor of gold. Since then, the signal has never reversed. In other words, the debasement of long-term government bonds across 40 countries has continued unabated. Today, as a growing number of clients ask whether it is time to “take profits on gold,” Didier’s answer remains unchanged: sure, you could, but why would you?
The Nature Of Risk Is Changing
Instability is increasingly rooted in geopolitical tensions and communication strategies, rather than in the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy, says Didier. In President Donald Trump’s case, he deploys a brand of diplomacy defined more by unpredictability than openly stated objectives. Didier explains how all this is shifting the calculus for asset allocation decisions.
The Value Of Time: Bond Yields And P/Es
When 10-year bond yields accelerate, market multiples tend to fall, says Didier. In this piece, he applies this basic insight to asset allocation strategies.
Israel, Iran And Portfolio Management
The prospect of full-scale war between Israel and Iran raises the following three critical questions for portfolio managers, says Didier: (i) Is there a serious risk of an immediate market crash? (ii) Over the coming months, could the conflict derail the global economy? (iii) In the very short term, what should investors do?
A Meeting Of Minds: Wicksell And Gave
You would have to be seriously distracted to work alongside Charles Gave and not get drawn into two cornerstones of his economic thinking: the Four Quadrants, which he first introduced in 1978, and the interest rate theory of Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. Since Didier is in such a situation, he reviews these core features of the Gavekal analytical framework in the context of the current growth situation and interest rate settings.
The Market Timeframe
The US government has rattled global markets with its stream of on-again, off-again tariff announcements. But it is not the policies themselves that are stirring reaction—it is more the intensity of the rhetoric behind them. In such an environment, Didier asks whether investment portfolios can still be managed with rationality, rather than reflex.