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Gavekal-IS
The Neutral Portfolio
Didier Darcet
9 Apr 2026
Facing increased volatility across asset classes as a result of the Iran war, money managers may want to take risk off the table by shifting to a neutral portfolio. But what is a truly neutral portfolio? Didier assesses the options and comes up with a clear winner.
Gavekal-IS
The Market’s Take On Global Trade
Didier Darcet
2 Apr 2026
It goes without saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a big deal for the global economy. However, markets have not reacted with the apocalyptic pricing response one might have expected. "Why so?" asks Didier. He seeks to answer this question using a usually reliable market-based signal for the global economic cycle involving the Swiss and Swedish equity markets.
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What To Do? Stay Put
Sound portfolio management does not rely on prediction, because the world is fundamentally uncertain, says Didier. Worse still, forecasts follow a brutal law: the more precise they become, the more likely they are to be wrong. He applies this insight to the dilemma faced by portfolio managers at the current moment because of confused signaling associated with the Iran war.
Rare Cases Of Risk Asymmetry
The broad market shock induced by the Iran War has thus far been contained, says Didier. In this piece, he seeks insights from oil-market pricing to test if that reaction is justified. By looking at the dynamics in the spot and futures markets for crude, he concludes that investors are being rational and should keep the faith with risk assets.
The Global Portfolio Regatta
Managing a global investment portfolio is less like a leisurely sail and more like competing in a yachting regatta, says Didier. The aim is to outperform peers but, above all, to stay afloat when weather conditions deteriorate. Performance matters; survival matters more. The real failure is not underperformance but losing control when calm seas turn violent. This is the context for Didier to outline a shift in his portfolio positioning.
Money Creation, Interest Rates And Wealth Creation
How much money should an economy create, and at what interest rate, to ensure price stability, align the interests of lenders and borrowers, and unlock its full growth potential? In this piece, Didier stands on the shoulders of giants from the past to come up with an answer that is useful for investors.
Time To Take Profits On Metals?
January delivered a near 20% surge in metal prices, a move so rare that it has occurred only twice in the past 35 years. Despite the recent pickup in volatility, driven largely by margin-call changes in silver futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Didier says the fundamental question remains whether it is now time to take profits.
The Big Long 2.0
It has been a turbulent start to 2026. But beneath the geopolitical sound and fury, global macro conditions are nicely aligned for an equity bull market. In particular, notes Didier, in the third quarter of 2025, productivity growth in the US outpaced real GDP growth—a rare and potentially powerful signal.