Most recent
Gavekal-IS
The Thermodynamics Of The Nasdaq
Didier Darcet
4 Jun 2026
The upcoming SpaceX IPO could become an epic wealth-creation event because so few shares are likely to be available for trading relative to the stock’s potential index weight. By allowing companies with limited free floats to exert outsized influence, the Nasdaq is effectively violating a basic principle of physics, argues Didier. The result may be explosive gains for early investors, but also a market that becomes increasingly unstable and dependent on passive flows.
Gavekal-IS
The 21st Century Does Not Lack Ideas
Didier Darcet
28 May 2026
The 21st century has no shortage of ideas. What it lacks is the ability to capitalize on them in tangible form, says Didier. The financial and physical capacity required to turn those ideas into reality seems to be the chief binding constraint of today’s economy. This is why the world may struggle to fund Asia's vast infrastructure needs and also the AI rollout, he says.
More research
Hard And Soft Sciences On Growth
In last week’s note, Didier warned that declining energy productivity is likely to slow global growth. Since growth and corporate profits are closely linked, the implication is a weaker outlook for equities and a rational case for reducing exposure. But how robust is the relationship between growth and profits? In this report, Didier examines the question through the contrasting lenses of hard science and economics.
Economic Regime Shift
The conflict in the Middle East is set to have far-reaching implications for tactical portfolio management. Not because markets have suffered meaningful direct losses, but because a major turning point in the global cycle is now forcing investors to reposition themselves, says Didier.
Chinese Impressions
Didier says that he should have gone to China years ago but, to his embarrassment, he only recently returned from a first visit. In this note, he gives his first impressions and explains how they influence his long-term investment view.
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part II)
In Didier’s last note, he challenged the notion that markets are generally well-behaved. The famous Bell Curve is thick at the base and scarred by violent, recurring shocks. This dynamic reflects randomness, but also memory. And not of direction, but of shock intensity. This week, he tackles a second flaw: the Bell Curve does not just stretch, it tilts. This, he argues, represents another crack in the foundations of statistical finance.
Understanding Asset Price Trajectories (Part I)
The first instinct for any financier, says Didier, should be to understand the trajectory of asset prices. Yet despite the analytical progress made in statistical finance over the last century, markets still behave as if this insight is wrapped in a quantum haze. In the first of a short series of notes on the topic, Didier offers up some non-technical insights.
The Neutral Portfolio
Facing increased volatility across asset classes as a result of the Iran war, money managers may want to take risk off the table by shifting to a neutral portfolio. But what is a truly neutral portfolio? Didier assesses the options and comes up with a clear winner.