Most recent
Gavekal Dragonomics
How China Responds To The Gold Price
Xiaoxi Zhang
13 Feb 2026
How will China’s demand for gold evolve in response to the metal’s historically high price—and the recent correction that may dent expectations of further gains? Xiaoxi argues that behavior of the different buyers of gold within China varies by their motivations, and suggest that its total gold purchases will not ramp up in 2026.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: India Shuffles The Deck
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
13 Feb 2026
India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Downtrend In Auto Demand
Ernan Cui
11 Feb 2026
After five straight years of strong growth, China’s domestic sales of electric vehicles will probably decline in 2026, Ernan Cui argues in this report. EV exports, by contrast, more than doubled in 2025 and can continue to grow rapidly, offsetting some of that domestic weakness. But given the continued decline in demand for cars other than EVs, China’s total auto sales and production are almost certain to slow substantially this year, creating more challenges for Chinese carmakers.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Mexico Picks A Side In US-China Trade
Thomas Gatley
9 Feb 2026
Mexico has enjoyed the benefits of serving as a trade conduit between China and the US, but that era is now coming to a close: Mexico’s leadership passed a bill in December that hikes tariffs on Chinese imports to levels comparable with those levied by the US. Thomas argues that this will certainly have a dampening effect on Chinese trade with Mexico, but the chance of a mass of China’s other trade partners going down the same road is slim.
Featured report
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
4 Feb 2026
China’s policymakers are satisfied with economic performance in 2025, and appear confident that 2026 will be a more ordinary year that allows for a more normal policy stance. But domestic demand remains lackluster, and it’s unclear whether recent positive momentum in some areas can be sustained. In their latest quarterly chartbook, Wei and the Dragonomics team take stock of China’s economic performance and the outlook for the year ahead.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Consequences Of The Land-Sales Slide
Xiaoxi Zhang
Macro Update: Preparing For Normalization
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
The Other Side Of Europe’s China Shock
Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl
Which Investment Data To Believe?
Andrew Batson
Webinar: The Global Reach Of A Renminbi Rerating
Louis-Vincent Gave
Anti-Corruption Strikes Again
Christopher Beddor
Global Reflation Versus Domestic Deflation
Wei He, Thomas Gatley
Crossing A Currency Threshold
Wei He
Gavekal Dragonomics
Securing The Western Frontier
Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.
Policy and the cycle
The Downside Of Multiple Mandates
China’s central bank is once again erring on the side of caution. It is on track to reduce rates by much less in 2025 than first expected—expectations that the PBOC itself created with a formal shift in its monetary-policy stance. This is a frequent pattern for the PBOC, which typically moves rates much less than other central banks. In this piece, Wei argues that the PBOC’s ingrained caution is less a philosophical choice than an institutional constraint, stemming from its lack of independence and multiple mandates.
Next Up: Monetary Policy
Unless something changes radically in the next few days, China is facing a major growth shock from the US imposition of massive tariffs. The question now is how China’s government will respond to intensifying growth fears. Wei argues that the first step should be an easing of monetary policy, and possibly more direct intervention from the central bank in financial markets.
The PBOC’s Aggressive Governor
The People’s Bank of China has been busy over the past year as its new governor, Pan Gongsheng, has overseen multiple interventions in financial markets and attempted risky policy changes. Wei argues that Pan’s aggressive policymaking style, along with a green light from top policymakers for more easing, means the chances of a large interest-rate cut are rising.
Stocks
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market
Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?
Bonds
Gavekal Dragonomics
A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market
Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.
Technology
Do Export Controls Work?
China’s technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?
What’s New In The Plan For Tech
Top leader Xi Jinping has decided that promoting technology and modernizing industry will continue to be the top priorities in China’s next five-year plan, as they are in the current plan. But as Tilly explains in this piece, that doesn’t mean China is simply doubling down on its existing industrial policy. There are important changes in priorities and strategies: a greater focus on commercializing products to drive growth, and a stronger role for central government coordination.
The Rare Earths Tussle Continues
Nearly three weeks after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made nice in South Korea, the details of the US-China trade ceasefire are still being worked out. The main sticking point is Beijing’s licensing terms for exports of rare earth and other critical materials. Also in today’s Gavekal Technologies Briefing, we consider the possibility that the US might be able to break China’s rare-earths chokehold sooner than expected, and report on the Chinese pharma industry’s struggle to generate profits.
Property
The Vanke Policy Whiplash
After the Shenzhen government abruptly reversed course on its partial bailout of China Vanke, the troubled developer’s bondholders convened on Wednesday to discuss its request for a repayment delay. Xiaoxi argues that the government’s approach to the company has been riddled with reversals because officials are struggling to balance conflicting policy goals for the property sector—and there may be more to come.
The Costs Of The Property-Policy Misfire
China’s property prices are declining at an accelerated pace, with the market stuck in a negative feedback loop the government seems unwilling to reverse. The property-support policies it has introduced have not gained traction, but there is little political effort going into improving their implementation. As Xiaoxi argues in this piece, a continued property downturn will cut against the government’s efforts to boost consumer spending.
The Slow-Growth Vision For Property
China’s property market has been in a funk for four years now, and hopes for government intervention have consistently disappointed. Xiaoxi argues that this week’s Central Urban Work Conference showed no urgency for a major change, instead signaling acceptance of a slow- or no-growth future for the property sector. Nonetheless, policymakers will probably need to introduce some measures in coming months to prevent the housing downturn from getting even worse.
Gavekal Dragonomics
Behind The Incredible Export Boom
Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.
Managing Covid
The Chinese Consumer In 2023
The Invisible Second Wave
Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
Latest webinars
Webinar: India Shuffles The Deck
India’s economy looks in decent shape, with growth accelerating past 7% and signs of private investment picking up. Now that a trade deal has finally been agreed with the United States, external risks have also diminished. But there is still plenty of uncertainty both over the details of the trade deal and over India’s geostrategic position, as it cuts Russian oil imports, diversifies trade away from the US and reengages with China. Udith Sikand and Tom Miller assess the recent flurry of news from India and what it means for investors.
Webinar: The Global Reach Of A Renminbi Rerating
For years, the extreme undervaluation of the Chinese currency has been the biggest single anomaly in global financial markets. In recent weeks, however, the renminbi has begun to appreciate at an accelerating pace, with the Chinese authorities setting their daily fixing at successively stronger rates. By the standards of other currencies, the moves so far are small. But the implications are far-reaching, and potentially even epochal. In this webinar Louis-Vincent Gave unpacks the importance of the renminbi’s exchange rate for global investors.
Webinar: Spheres Of Interest
The United States' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro threatens a full rupture of the already severely frayed rules-based international order. In this webinar, our team assessed the economic impact of a world dividing into competing spheres of interest and ask what this means for financial markets, especially energy and commodities.