Gavekal Dragonomics

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The Wrong Kind Of Competition

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The Wrong Kind Of Competition

Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Tilly Zhang
23 May 2025
The power of competition to discipline prices is indisputable—but can prices be influenced by controls on competition? China’s government is endorsing a theory that downward pressures on prices are being worsened by excess competition, and that official efforts to reduce those pressures are necessary. But Andrew, Ernan and Tilly argue that such a focus isn’t going to move the needle on what is ultimately a problem of deficient demand and excess investment.
State Developers Start To Stabilize

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State Developers Start To Stabilize

Xiaoxi Zhang
21 May 2025
China’s housing sales have broadly stabilized for almost a year now. Does that mean the worst is now over for developer finances? Xiaoxi argues that for private-sector developers, which have suffered the most, probably not quite yet. But for state-owned developers, some financial stabilization is now in sight.

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Growth Momentum Falters

Wei He, Dragonomics Team
19 May 2025
After losing some steam in Q1, China’s growth momentum slipped further in April due to the initial impact from higher US tariffs and softer domestic demand. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that with the US-China ceasefire improving the outlook for exports, policymakers will probably remain in wait-and-see mode for longer—even though domestic demand appears to be ebbing.

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Exports And Equities After The Ceasefire

Thomas Gatley
16 May 2025
The US-China ceasefire announced this week is unequivocally positive for both China’s export economy and for stocks, at least in the short run. Thomas unpacks the implications of the agreement, and argues that easing trade tensions and stimulative policy settings will provide strong tailwinds for Chinese equity prices over the next few months—though risks will multiply later in the year.

Featured report

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Macro Update: Managing The Trade Chaos

Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
6 May 2025
China’s attempt to stabilize its economy has been rudely interrupted by the sudden escalation of the US-China trade conflict into a near-embargo. No one thinks the current 100%+ tariffs are sustainable, but the off-ramp is not yet obvious. China’s government had already planned for a substantial fiscal stimulus, and has made clear it is prepared to do more if needed—but is not rushing to act. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics team assess the economic fundamentals and explains China’s policy options for managing the trade chaos.

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Webinar: Escalate To Deescalate?
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Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
Carefully Controlling Appreciation
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Wei He
Five Questions After The Geneva Ceasefire
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Arthur Kroeber
Expropriation, Law, And Incentives
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Andrew Batson
A Cautious Cut
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Wei He
Macro Update: Managing The Trade Chaos
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Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
Substituting For Secondary Housing
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Xiaoxi Zhang
Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism
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Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
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The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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