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Substituting For Secondary Housing

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Substituting For Secondary Housing

Xiaoxi Zhang
2 May 2025
China’s new-housing sales have stabilized, and policymakers have vowed to cut interest rates. Does this combination mean a meaningful rebound is ahead? Xiaoxi argues that the answer is probably not, as the relentless shift in demand towards the secondary market means rate cuts might mostly just boost sales of existing units.
Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism

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Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl
30 Apr 2025
The first four months of 2025 have seen a succession of shocks severely damage the narrative of US exceptionalism that has prevailed in global financial markets for the last few years. In this strategy chartbook, Gavekal analysts examine what this diminution of belief in the US means for US markets, and look at which assets and markets outside the US stand to benefit and which to avoid.

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Reforging Supply Chains, Again

Thomas Gatley
29 Apr 2025
Unless a deal is reached soon to reverse recent tariff hikes, a vast majority of US-China bilateral trade is a thing of the past. However, Thomas argues that Chinese exporters have already established sophisticated beachheads for triangular trade and production outside the mainland. As the new tariffs start to bite, this cross-border extension of supply chains will grow all the more important.

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The Politburo Holds Fire

Wei He
25 Apr 2025
On Friday, China’s ruling Politburo provided the most authoritative pronouncement on economic policy since US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs earlier this month. Wei argues the meeting reaffirmed that policymakers will dial up stimulus in the coming months—but with a major fiscal expansion already in train, they are holding fire to some extent on further policies in order to assess the damage from tariffs.

Featured report

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Macro Update: Tending The Green Shoots

Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
31 Jan 2025
After China’s pivot to stimulus in late September, green shoots have appeared across the economy, with property sales bouncing, consumption improving and deflation easing. But the turn in growth is tentative and markets are still unconvinced: the green shoots need more tending from government policy support. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics team assess the prospects for 2025.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Taking Stock Of Fiscal Progress
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Wei He
How China Would Fight A Trade War
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Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Tilly Zhang
How Long Can Subsidies Fuel Auto Sales?
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Ernan Cui
Webinar: Understanding The US-China Trade War
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Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley
Housing Inventories Diverge
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Xiaoxi Zhang
The Calm Before The Trade Storm
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Wei He, Dragonomics Team
The Shape Of The Supply-Chain Shock
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Andrew Batson
The World’s Biggest Black Market
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Thomas Gatley

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
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The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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