Gavekal Dragonomics

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Macro Update: New Deal, Same Problems

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Macro Update: New Deal, Same Problems

Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
24 Jul 2025
China’s growth will hold up better than many expected in 2025. But domestic demand is weak, with property a renewed drag, and deflation remains a threat. Despite more stimulus, China still isn’t generating strong nominal growth. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics Team assess the state of the economy and outlook for policy and markets.
What’s Really Happening With Manufacturing Capex?

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What’s Really Happening With Manufacturing Capex?

Thomas Gatley
22 Jul 2025
Domestic demand is slowing and trade barriers to exports are rising, yet China’s official fixed-asset investment data suggests that manufacturers are enthusiastically adding more capacity. Thomas argues that the companies may not be quite so heedless of market signals as that data imply, and the manufacturing investment cycle is instead probably cooling.

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The Slow-Growth Vision For Property

Xiaoxi Zhang
17 Jul 2025
China’s property market has been in a funk for four years now, and hopes for government intervention have consistently disappointed. Xiaoxi argues that this week’s Central Urban Work Conference showed no urgency for a major change, instead signaling acceptance of a slow- or no-growth future for the property sector. Nonetheless, policymakers will probably need to introduce some measures in coming months to prevent the housing downturn from getting even worse.

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Making Sense Of The Xi Jinping Rumors

Christopher Beddor
16 Jul 2025
Speculation about the health and hold on power of China’s top leader Xi Jinping is nothing new, but the latest rumors seem especially persistent. Is there any concrete public evidence to suggest that Xi might be losing his grip on power? Christopher argues that on close inspection, the existing evidence largely crumbles.

Featured report

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Macro Update: New Deal, Same Problems

Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
24 Jul 2025
China’s growth will hold up better than many expected in 2025. But domestic demand is weak, with property a renewed drag, and deflation remains a threat. Despite more stimulus, China still isn’t generating strong nominal growth. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics Team assess the state of the economy and outlook for policy and markets.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Growth Gradually Softens
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Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Infrastructure Is Still The Preferred Stimulus
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Xiaoxi Zhang, Wei He
Webinar: Gimcrack Goldilocks Or The Real Thing?
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Arthur Kroeber, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Why The Job-Market Signals Are Mixed
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Ernan Cui
What’s Happening To Xi’s Commissions?
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Christopher Beddor
Rethinking Technology Funding
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Tilly Zhang
How Long Will The Auto Price War Last?
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Ernan Cui
Next Steps For Stimulus
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Wei He

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
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The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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