Gavekal Dragonomics

Most recent

Signs Of Policy Hubris

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

Signs Of Policy Hubris

Andrew Batson
14 Oct 2025
The US and China are in another escalatory spiral of trade restrictions. Most now expect negotiations to walk back the most extreme measures, but Andrew argues the fact that this brinksmanship on trade has been repeated points to some underlying issues. On China's side, there are signs of complacency, and even hubris, about the strength of the domestic economy.
What China’s Rare-Earths Controls Really Mean

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

What China’s Rare-Earths Controls Really Mean

Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
13 Oct 2025
The latest US-China trade war escalation has followed a now-familiar sequence of events. In this piece, Arthur and Laila unpack the negotiating aims, motivations and constraints that inform China’s moves in this dance—and especially the intent of provocative new rare-earths export-control rules released last week.

Gavekal Research

Lock

Geoeconomic Monitor: A Fragile Peace, A Shaky Trade Deal

Tom Holland, Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja
10 Oct 2025
In this week’s Geoeconomic Monitor, we analyze the implications of the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire for Red Sea shipping, and try to figure out why China decided to expand its export controls on rare earths just as Xi Jinping gets ready to meet Donald Trump at the end of the month.

Gavekal Research

Lock

Webinar: Dan Wang On China's Engineering State

Arthur Kroeber, Dan Wang
10 Oct 2025
Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.

Featured report

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

The Financial Risk Report 2025

Xiaoxi Zhang
28 Aug 2025
China’s banking system faces fundamental strains that mean the rapid credit growth of the past 15 years cannot continue. Low rates are compressing margins, making banks less able to finance themselves, while potential bad loans are piling up. A new round of bank bailouts in 2025 shows the government recognizes the problem, and will keep the banks stable for now, but not forever. In her annual update on the health of China’s financial system, Xiaoxi explains why this year’s bank bailout will not be the last.

Gavekal Dragonomics

The Silent Payroll Tax Hike
Lock
Ernan Cui
Getting Industrial Policy Right
Lock
Arthur Kroeber, Laila Khawaja, Damien Ma, Tom Hancock
The Elusive 'Slow Bull' Market
Lock
Thomas Gatley
What The Unified National Market Really Means
Lock
Tilly Zhang
Webinar: Investing Through An Inflationary Boom
Lock
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Didier Darcet
How The Five-Year Plan Has Lost Relevance
Lock
Christopher Beddor
Stablecoins Versus Stability
Lock
Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
What Happens When The Trade Surplus Falls?
Lock
Andrew Batson, Thomas Gatley

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lock

A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
Lock
The Invisible Second Wave
Lock
Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
Lock
The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
Lock
Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
Lock
Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
Lock

Latest webinars

Webinar: Dan Wang On China's Engineering State
Dan Wang, who was Gavekal's technology analyst for six years, has just published an important book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. He joins Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about China's technological progress and competition with the US, and argues that the engineering mindset of China's government is why the country has become the world's undisputed manufacturing superpower.
Lock
Webinar: Investing Through An Inflationary Boom
The global inflationary boom for the moment remains well set, with both monetary and fiscal settings in most economies remaining loose to very loose. The result is that equity markets continue to trend higher but in an increasingly differentiated pattern. At the same time, the fundamentals for OECD bonds remain terrible and investors are thus engaged in a desperate search for solid stores of value. Our panel reviewed the macro situation and explored viable asset allocation strategies.
Lock
Webinar: Nvidia, TikTok And The US-China Tech Competition
Laila Khawaja joins Arthur Kroeber in a conversation about the many facets of the growing US-China technology rivalry. Topics include the question of who is winning the AI race, the politics of Nvidia's chip sales in China, the significance of the deal apparently struck this week to sell TikTok to US owners, and whether Trump and Xi can forge a bigger trade and tech agreement later this fall.
Lock