Gavekal Dragonomics
June 14, 2019
China’s growth momentum faded noticeably in May, and while the government rolled out new supportive measures, they are fairly modest. The data over the next couple of months could be pretty uninspiring. But as Chen Long argues in this report, policymakers still prefer to soften the slowdown rather than try to generate a big cyclical upswing.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 11, 2019
The boom in China’s outbound tourism could go down as another casualty of the trade war. As Ernan explains in this piece, the combination of a weakening currency and rising political tensions is becoming a major drag on international travel by Chinese—just as the structural factors driving outbound tourism growth are shifting into a lower gear.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 5, 2019
Chinese listed companies have lately suffered more than their fair share of shocks to earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains the financial and accounting problems that have squeezed profits in recent quarters. But he argues that, even with the trade war, 2019 is likely to be a normal profits downcycle rather than a disastrous one.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 16, 2019
China’s economic data for April came in rather worse than the too-good-to-be-true indicators for March. As Andrew explains in this report, the April figures do not actually show a serious deterioration, and property is still holding up. But the stabilization in growth is now under threat from a more protracted trade conflict with the US.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 7, 2019
The improved economic outlook for China in 2019 owes a lot to an effective stimulus and progress toward a trade deal. But it has also been driven by top leader Xi Jinping’s surprising political pivot from champion of state enterprises to patron of the private sector. In this piece, Andrew examines how sincere Xi’s new stance will prove to be.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 17, 2019
The raft of economic data released by China on Wednesday morning suggests the world’s second largest economy is proving more responsive than expected to the authorities’ supportive policy measures. The question is no longer whether the government will hit its 2019 growth target, but whether the apparent success will make Beijing halt its easing.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 4, 2019
The collapse of US-China trade talks and the ratcheting up of tariffs has intensified the challenges faced by global companies with operations that span both countries. In this piece, Lance reports on their range of responses to the trade war: some are shifting out of China, some are investing more in China, and some are not doing anything yet.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 27, 2019
Since the collapse of the US-China trade talks, the public position of both sides has hardened. Top leader Xi Jinping’s call for a “new Long March” was widely taken as a sign he is ready for a protracted standoff with the US. But support for such a stance is not universal, as the surprising public comments of Huawei chairman Ren Zhengfei suggest.
Gavekal Research
May 20, 2019
Keeping track of all the pieces of the US-China confrontation has become a full-time job. But the chaos and uncertainty of the past couple of weeks has begun to resolve itself into fairly clear patterns, even if the outcomes remain in doubt. Three main conclusions emerge from last week’s activity, and none of them are particularly reassuring.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 30, 2019
The escalation of the trade war with the US likely means that the People’s Bank of China will keep easing monetary policy. But as Chen Long explains, the PBOC will also be pursuing a structural reform agenda. It wants to boost lending to the private sector and move to market-based interest rates—while still preserving overall financial stability.
Gavekal Research
May 14, 2019
In response to the escalation of the US-China trade war, Chinese policymakers are likely to step up their easing measures. This should help support domestic demand. But as Chen Long argues in this piece, the effect of policy easing, coupled with the impact of increased tariffs on China’s exports, will add to downward pressure on the renminbi.
Gavekal Research
April 26, 2019
In a year marked by unexpected US dollar strength, the renminbi is one of the few major currencies to be up against the dollar. The reason is simple enough: the resumption of trade talks between the US and China. Yet although a trade pact is now substantially priced in, there are reasons to believe the renminbi has further upside potential.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 25, 2019
China’s property market data has been surprising on the upside. Thanks to easier credit and looser administrative restrictions, sales volumes picked up in March and prices rose. In this paper, Rosealea examines whether the upturn can last, and assesses what it means for land sales, construction activity, materials prices and the broader economy.
Gavekal Dragonomics
February 20, 2019
China’s local governments are cutting back their slum redevelopment plans, which points to lower government subsidies for housing in 2019. As a result, Rosealea argues, housing sales are likely to have a deeper decline this year, although Beijing will manage the phase-out of subsidies with a careful eye on how it affects the market.
Gavekal Dragonomics
January 30, 2019
While many forecasters had expected China’s steel demand to enter long-term decline as housing construction peaks, in fact it has stayed surprisingly strong. In this piece, Rosealea revisits her housing model, and finds it is consistent with recent trends. Construction should peak in 2020-22, so steel demand can stay elevated for a few more years.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 21, 2019
The US government has China’s most prominent technology firm in a stranglehold. The question now is whether the US government continues to strangle Huawei until it goes out of business, or chooses to eventually stop squeezing and allow a weakened Huawei to keep operating under some limitations. In this report, Dan explores the possible scenarios.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 9, 2019
The Trump administration’s trade war has targeted China’s ambitious industrial policy, which China clearly has no intention to abandon. But will that industrial policy work? In this report, Lance explains his eight-point system for evaluating industrial policy’s odds of success, and tests it on electric vehicles, airplanes and pharmaceuticals.
Gavekal Research
April 12, 2019
Smartphones are a maturing industry. Sales in China, the US, Europe and Japan are declining, and demand growth in India and Africa is not fast enough to drive a new surge in global sales. The industry is hoping that 5G and foldable phones will trigger a fresh upgrade cycle. But neither will drive a significant increase of sales in the near term.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 23, 2019
The rapid rise in China’s household debt has become a major concern for markets and policymakers. While most analysis looks at the household debt-to-GDP ratio, in this report Ernan calculates the household debt service ratio for a better angle on the problem. She finds that the debt burden on household budgets will keep increasing in 2019.
Gavekal Dragonomics
February 14, 2019
Is the long boom in China’s car market finally over? In this piece, Ernan takes stock of the prospects for auto sales after 2018’s historic decline. Since that drop was caused by expiring stimulus policies, sales can stabilize and recover. Future growth, however, is likely to be much slower than the industry has become accustomed to.
Gavekal Dragonomics
January 31, 2019
China’s government has made a cut in personal-income taxes, rushed out in August 2018, a centerpiece of its response to a slowing economy. Additional tax deductions were unveiled in January, but as Ernan explains, the new details are not that bullish for consumer spending. Enforcement is tightening, and some tax breaks will be phased out.
Gavekal Research
April 30, 2019
China’s equity bull market has lost steam in the last 10 days after the Politburo adopted a less supportive tone following stronger than expected economic data in March. Even before the announcement, market ebullience had moderated.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 2, 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 4, 2019
After turning in the world’s worst performance in 2018, Chinese A-shares have bounced back with a vengeance in 2019. The three factors driving sentiment—liquidity conditions, the US-China trade war and Beijing’s policy stance—have all improved markedly. Thomas thinks the bull market has room to run, but exuberance creates its own set of risks.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 16, 2019
The world’s deadliest pig disease is now established in the world’s largest pork market. The spread of African swine fever in China has been more severe than the government has admitted, and as a result pork prices are spiking and imports are surging. But as Ernan argues in this report, the impact of this epidemic is still only in its early stages.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 11, 2019
It’s looking like a good spring for China’s steel industry. In this piece, Rosealea reports on her findings from a recent visit to the steelmaking capital of Tangshan. Steel and iron ore prices are being supported by a combination of stable demand from property, recovering demand from infrastructure and supply constraints from scrap shortages.
Gavekal Dragonomics
December 10, 2018
Chinese steel prices suffered their biggest decline in two years in November, falling about 20% over the course of the month. That correction was driven by a combination of a big increase in supply along with worries about future demand. In this piece, Rosealea argues that both problems will be short-lived, and that steel prices can rebound.
Gavekal Dragonomics
December 4, 2018
China’s ambitious goals to lead in the technologies of the future are backed by huge resources. Since late 2014, there has been an explosion in state-backed funds targeting high technology. Our latest in-depth DeepChina report digs into these government guidance funds to find out how they work, and how successful they will be.
Gavekal Dragonomics
August 8, 2018
China is going port-crazy in Southeast Asia. Chinese firms are now engaged in building 15 port projects in the region, at a total cost of more than US$50bn. Will these bricks in the Maritime Silk Road prove to be valuable assets, or financial black holes? In our new DeepChina report, Lance Noble and Tom Miller find the answer is: some of both.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 4, 2018
Our first DeepChina report takes a close look at Beijing's efforts to exert tighter control over the internet, the flow of commercial data, and the security of its technological infrastructure. China ia nor alone in toughening regulation, but its efforts are far more expansive, and raise more serious concerns for multinational firms.
Gavekal Dragonomics
November 19, 2018
China’s property market has had a record-breaking run, but where is it headed next? In this concise chartbook, Rosealea delivers her annual overview of the key drivers of housing sales and construction activity and explains the outlook for 2019. An overdue correction in sales is coming, but construction should hold up relatively well.
Gavekal Dragonomics
October 3, 2018
Where is China heading as it undergoes demographic change of unprecedented speed and scale? In this chartbook, Ernan offers a comprehensive guide to the unfolding transformation of the nation’s population, focusing on changes in family-planning policy, the implications of an aging society, and the shifting patterns of migration.
Gavekal Dragonomics
September 20, 2018
In this chartbook, Thomas outlines the key trends in the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector. Growth in sales and profits has stayed stronger for longer, but is driven mainly by high materials prices. A rebound in capex is starting to fade. Deleveraging continues but more slowly, and may not last much longer as profits cool and debt rises.
Gavekal Research
May 29, 2019
In yesterday's special Gavekal Research Conference call Gavekal's Arthur Kroeber and Dang Wang, along with Fathom China's Matt Forney, considered what the breakdown of the US-China trade talks means for the trajectory of the trade war, and what the blacklisting of Huawei means for the tech cold war.
Gavekal Research
May 24, 2019
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 17, 2019
Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview, Chen Long discusses why that is, and how far China’s currency is likely to fall if things get worse.