Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations. By request, some of Will’s charts on this subject are provided below, with the data updated daily.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
November 25, 2020
Two Equity Rotations In The Making
Investors are bulled up on hopes that successful vaccine roll-outs will end the Covid-19 pandemic before next spring and the US will get a smooth transition of power that leaves an investor-friendly divided government.
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2020
Time To Look Beyond The US
Heading into the US elections, there were three big reasons to be bearish on the US dollar. With the results as they stand, one of those concerns has diminished. But the other two continue to weigh on the US currency. Meanwhile, the US equity market is looking extremely expensive compared with equity markets elsewhere.
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Gavekal Research
November 2, 2020
US Inflation Is Still Benign
The current investment environment in the US faces three clear and present dangers. The first is tomorrow’s election, the second is the resurgent Covid outbreak and the third, is the threat of an inflation surge, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
November 6, 2020
US Election Points To A Bullish Result
The US election is tilting towards a denouement but a categorical result may not be known for weeks. That uncertainty is not good for Americans’ nerves but should not especially trouble investors. More impactful will be policy changes (or maybe the lack of them) that flow from the result.
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Gavekal Research
May 29, 2020
Excess Money And Where To Find Value
US cash balances have exploded in recent months and at some point a portion of this “excess” is likely to be deployed into financial markets. That may help push asset prices up further, but Will argues that fairly extreme valuations mean not all asset classes will rise together.
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Gavekal Research
May 18, 2020
The Upside For Autos And Housing
As the US begins to reopen for business, some segments of the economy will bounce back faster than others. Among the more vigorous will be the auto and housing sectors, where activity will be lifted by a favorable combination of tailwinds.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2020
Video: Politics And Pandemics—The US After The Election
The last week has seen two big developments affecting the US economy and markets: effective confirmation that Joe Biden has won the presidency, and a surge in hopes for the early rollout of a coronavirus vaccine as infection rates continue to accelerate.
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Gavekal Research
November 5, 2020
Webinar: The 2020 US Election
With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
October 30, 2020
Webinar: Facing Down US Risks
The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings.