Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
January 15, 2021
Biden’s Spending Plan
In a speech late Thursday, US President-Elect Joe Biden called on Congress to approve an additional US$1.9trn of federal spending to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and support the US economy. If approved, Biden’s package will bring US government stimulus spending since the start of the pandemic to more than US$5trn.
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Gavekal Research
January 11, 2021
The Road Ahead For US Yields
Friday’s US labor market figures showing a surprise 140,000 contraction in December’s non-farm payrolls emphasized just how tough the winter months are going to be for the world’s largest economy as coronavirus infection rates and resulting hospitalizations continue to accelerate.
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Gavekal Research
November 25, 2020
Two Equity Rotations In The Making
Investors are bulled up on hopes that successful vaccine roll-outs will end the Covid-19 pandemic before next spring and the US will get a smooth transition of power that leaves an investor-friendly divided government.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
January 11, 2021
Bitcoin, Gold Or Fiat?
Governments and central banks are giving users of fiat money reason to consider alternative mediums of exchange and stores of value. And it seems entirely possible that Bitcoin can rally even harder than it already has. But are there the makings of a good money? Because if the answer is “no”, then bitcoin is running on fumes.
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Gavekal Research
January 6, 2021
The Senate Upheaval
With some trepidation, Yanmei and Will offer their view on the economic consequences of Georgia, assuming that the Democrats have indeed secured a wafer-thin majority in the Senate.
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Gavekal Research
November 6, 2020
US Election Points To A Bullish Result
The US election is tilting towards a denouement but a categorical result may not be known for weeks. That uncertainty is not good for Americans’ nerves but should not especially trouble investors. More impactful will be policy changes (or maybe the lack of them) that flow from the result.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
December 4, 2020
Video: The Treasury’s Liquidity Programs And Markets
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has come under fire for failing to extend a number of the Treasury’s liquidity support programs into 2021.
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Gavekal Research
December 4, 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2020
The US equity market is seeing a switch from the winners of the pandemic like technology and online retail, to the beaten-up losers such as travel plays. At the same time, hopes for a strong economic recovery in 2021 are juicing up value stocks. Similar dynamics are being seen in other major markets.
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2020
Video: Politics And Pandemics—The US After The Election
The last week has seen two big developments affecting the US economy and markets: effective confirmation that Joe Biden has won the presidency, and a surge in hopes for the early rollout of a coronavirus vaccine as infection rates continue to accelerate.