Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations. By request, some of Will’s charts on this subject are provided below, with the data updated daily.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
October 15, 2019
The Fed Goes On The Offensive
Grocery shoppers get perturbed when they buy produce labeled as “organic” but get something from the agro-industrial complex. Investors, on the other hand, should welcome the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet boost, that was described on Friday as nothing more than “organic” growth.
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Gavekal Research
October 9, 2019
Back To Balance Sheet Expansion
On Tuesday, Jay Powell confirmed that the US Federal Reserve will go back to growing its balance sheet once again following its meeting at the end of October. The aim is for the balance sheet to grow gradually along with the economy.
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Gavekal Research
October 3, 2019
Echoes Of 2000 Strike A False Note
First there was the WeWork IPO failure and a string of other flops. Now the S&P 500 has slumped -3% in just two days, leaving the index down -4.6% from its July high. As a result, nervous investors are wondering whether the US may be seeing the beginning of the bursting of a bubble, just as in 2000. Are the fears justified?
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
July 30, 2019
The Downward Revision In US Profits
Alongside last Friday’s second quarter US GDP release, the BEA issued revisions which wiped out almost all the increase in pre-tax corporate profits since the end of 2016, and much of the post-tax increase. The revisions can be attributed almost entirely to weak top-line growth and rising wage costs.
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Gavekal Research
June 25, 2019
Libra's Monetary Challenge
Facebook has 2.7bn users and 90mn companies operating on its various platforms. Perhaps more than any other non-state player, it has the resources, reach and data trove to launch a global currency.
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Gavekal Research
May 6, 2019
How Long Can Productivity Contain US Inflation Pressure?
April’s US payrolls report showed job creation was stronger than expected and unemployment lower, yet wage pressures were softer. This suggests weaker unit labor costs will allow the Fed to remain dovish, at least for now. All else being equal this is positive for equity investors. The question is: How long can this benign combination persist?
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
October 4, 2019
Video: Where The Fed Stands
Investors are nervous about weak US data and a liquidity squeeze in the US repo markets. They are now looking to the Federal Reserve for reassurance. In this video, Will tells us what policy changes to expect from the Fed at the end of this month and why.
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Gavekal Research
September 5, 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2019
In yesterday’s conference call, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave outlined reasons for recent dramatic moves in bond markets and made arguments for what comes next. Anatole also addressed Brexit developments and Louis discussed the situation in Hong Kong.
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Gavekal Research
August 30, 2019
Video: Looking Through The Bond Bubble
As yields fall to record lows, bond markets seem priced for some sort of global economic calamity. With Europe in dire straits and the US-China trade war remaining live, there is certainly cause for worry. But when things look like they can’t get any worse, Will reckons, they often don’t.