Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
November 23, 2021
Biden's Fed Picks
President Joe Biden took the path of least resistance in nominating Jay Powell to serve a second term as Federal Reserve chair. It reinforces my view that macro policy will be driven more by changes in the economic data than changes in Fed leadership. At the sectoral level, these appointments should be positive for US bank stocks.
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Gavekal Research
November 16, 2021
Don’t Panic, But Do Be Wary
On Monday, Anatole argued that Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic. His case is that favorable base effects and more moderate demand growth now that the initial reopening boom is over mean headline inflation rates will moderate significantly next year.
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Gavekal Research
November 2, 2021
Beware The Bear Flattening
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia became the latest major central bank to signal a change of course, shifting away from its ultra-accommodative policy stance and towards a marginal tightening in response to higher inflation pressures.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
November 19, 2021
The Real Yield Mystery
One of Will’s key calls for 2021 was that real yields on US treasuries would rebound from their deeply negative levels. But despite the news of Fed tapering, real yields have remained stubbornly low.
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Gavekal Research
November 4, 2021
The Fed Turns Inflation Risk Manager
At the start of 2021, not many investors expected the Federal Reserve to close the year by winding down its asset purchases. So why is it now tapering, and what comes next for US monetary policy and markets? In this piece, Will seeks to explain.
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Gavekal Research
October 18, 2021
The Troubling Signal In US Savings
In recent months, the US net national savings rate—the share of income unconsumed—has ticked lower. It may seem a small concern as the Federal Reserve prepares to taper, but if the rate of genuine savings continues to fall over coming quarters, it will be a danger signal both for asset markets and for US economic growth.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
December 1, 2021
Video: The State Of The US Economy
With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.
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Gavekal Research
November 5, 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, November 2021
At November's Global Investment Roundtable, Gavekal’s senior team convened to discuss the global macro environment as energy prices continue to rise and the US Federal Reserve gets closer to winding down its monetary accommodation.
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Gavekal Research
October 22, 2021
Webinar: What To Expect As The Fed Tapers
The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances.