Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
April 7, 2021
When Do We Begin To Worry About Cost Pressures?
For the last 13 months or so, ever since the Covid pandemic started to grip, the broad US equity market has been driven above all by fears and hopes for top-line revenue growth. Last spring, as investors anticipated a collapse in revenues, the market collapsed.
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Gavekal Research
March 24, 2021
The Short And Long For The US Dollar
After ending 2020 amid heavily negative sentiment, the US dollar has confounded near-term bears by edging higher year-to-date. The DXY dollar index has gained 2.75%, clawing back just over a third of its -7.5% decline in 2020. Perhaps this should not be too surprising. First, by the end of 2020, the US dollar was no longer blatantly overvalued.
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Gavekal Research
March 18, 2021
Markets After The Fed
The Federal Reserve saw no need to ease monetary policy any further at its March meeting which concluded Wednesday. That’s no surprise. Policy is already extremely easy, and growth and inflation are already looking up.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
February 9, 2021
US Inflation Has Many Fathers
As the economics adage goes, inflation happens when “too much money chases too few goods”. This is an oversimplification but it does contain a core truth: the monetary price of goods is dictated by supply and demand factors that impact both the goods in question, and money itself.
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Gavekal Research
January 11, 2021
Bitcoin, Gold Or Fiat?
Governments and central banks are giving users of fiat money reason to consider alternative mediums of exchange and stores of value. And it seems entirely possible that Bitcoin can rally even harder than it already has. But are there the makings of a good money? Because if the answer is “no”, then bitcoin is running on fumes.
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Gavekal Research
January 6, 2021
The Senate Upheaval
With some trepidation, Yanmei and Will offer their view on the economic consequences of Georgia, assuming that the Democrats have indeed secured a wafer-thin majority in the Senate.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
March 31, 2021
Video: Unpacking The NFT Hype
What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.
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Gavekal Research
March 26, 2021
Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation
Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves.
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Gavekal Research
March 9, 2021
Video: US Equities In A Changed Macro Environment
US tech stocks have been hit hard, as attention focuses on the underlying quality of themes like the migration to electric vehicles.