Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations. By request, some of Will’s charts on this subject are provided below, with the data updated daily.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
April 6, 2020
The Atlantic Divide
Second order economic effects from the Covid-19 outbreak are ripping through industrialized economies, with soaring unemployment, shuttered industries and a fall in corporate profits. While China has eschewed large-scale government support, Europe and the US have adopted massive fiscal and monetary responses.
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Gavekal Research
March 26, 2020
The Case For Corporate Bonds
Although the US spread of Covid-19 continues to accelerate, in the near term markets have been encouraged by promises of heavy fiscal support for the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s plans to take risk off private sector balance sheets, including by buying corporate debt. Is now the time to increase exposure to risk assets?
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Gavekal Research
March 24, 2020
The Importance Of The Fed’s Big Guns
On Monday, the US Federal Reserve rolled out some of its heaviest artillery. In a move reminiscent of the moves in March 2009 which finally succeeded in stabilizing markets, it both relaxed accounting rules for banks and launched a whole suite of programs designed to take risk off private sector balance sheets, including by buying corporate bonds.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
March 30, 2020
Is US$2trn In Fiscal Support Enough?
Will the US$2trn fiscal packiage prove big enough? The initial market reaction might have suggested that it won’t. However, if extreme lockdowns last no longer than a month or two, the fiscal package may well succeed in its twin objectives of averting mass business failures and preventing a big rise in long term unemployment.
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Gavekal Research
March 16, 2020
The Fed’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Moment
While other US government agencies tackle the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Reserve has promised ample liquidity and functioning credit markets. Its “whatever it takes” plan is to ensure that US dollars are available at home and abroad, US credit markets remain liquid and solvent companies and individuals are not stopped out.
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Gavekal Research
February 28, 2020
Still Dollar Bears (Humbly)
The Covid-19 outbreak has sparked a flight to safety, reversing an incipient weakening of the US dollar. This is hardly unfounded, as the US so far has been spared a major outbreak and its economy is decently insulated. Yet most of the factors weighing on the US dollar late last year remain valid. Thus Will and KX advise a negative dollar bias.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
April 7, 2020
Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns
Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.
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Gavekal Research
December 19, 2019
Audio — Gavekal Research Call December 2019
In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer reviewed the current investment environment and outlined their expectations for 2020.
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Gavekal Research
November 28, 2019
Seminar Series Multimedia — Fall 2019
Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.