Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
September 7, 2021
Bottlenecks And Corporate Bond Yields
It seems that not all parts of the US economy are created equal. As the Delta variant outbreak causes US Covid cases to soar, the service sector is taking a hit. In contrast, the less-exposed manufacturing sector saw job growth in August. The question for investors is how these somewhat conflicting forces impact different asset classes.
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Gavekal Research
August 30, 2021
Investing Through The Taper
After all the build-up hype, investors seem to have taken Jerome Powell saying that the Federal Reserve may soon be buying less assets in their stride. They have no doubt taken solace from the Fed chair’s promise that tapering does not mean imminent interest rate hikes, or quantitative tightening.
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Gavekal Research
August 23, 2021
The End Of The Cash Dump
The US Treasury is running low on cash. Having massively ramped up its holdings of cash between April and July 2020 at the height of the Covid crisis, the Treasury has been running them down again since February 2021. Normally the Treasury aims to hold cash equal to one week of its outgoings, but it has fallen to less than half that amount.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
July 23, 2021
Did The Equity Rotation And Bond Sell-Off End In May?
The arrival of Covid-19 vaccines in November sparked a selloff in bonds and significant outperformance of value stocks, at least until mid-May. Having advised a bias to value stocks and keeping duration short in bond portfolios since last November Will was wrong-footed by the market moves of the past two months. Will the new trend last?
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Gavekal Research
July 7, 2021
Demographics And Prices
Starting in the early 1980s, the world became increasingly flush with people in their prime working and saving years. That trend, however, has largely run its course and may now be going into reverse. As a result, investors should consider what economic trends have demographic drivers, making them vulnerable to a structural shift occurring.
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Gavekal Research
February 9, 2021
US Inflation Has Many Fathers
As the economics adage goes, inflation happens when “too much money chases too few goods”. This is an oversimplification but it does contain a core truth: the monetary price of goods is dictated by supply and demand factors that impact both the goods in question, and money itself.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
September 17, 2021
Webinar: Questions Arise As US Growth Slows
As renewed Covid outbreaks curtail activity and the labor market starts to normalize, the US economy is no longer generating big upside growth surprises. Will the Federal Reserve defer its retreat from super-easy monetary policy, and what will come of the Biden administration's fiscal strategy?
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Gavekal Research
September 16, 2021
Video: Cryptos, NFTs And CyberPunks
As investors have flipped between euphoria and dejection over the future of crypto-currencies and related digital assets, prices have had a crazy ride. In this video Will outlines a framework for thinking about valuations.
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Gavekal Research
July 23, 2021
Webinar: The State Of Global Growth
The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector.