Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations. By request, some of Will’s charts on this subject are provided below, with the data updated daily.
For Will's article archive click here.
Below are some of Will’s favorite indicators. More information—on the logic, construction and application—is available on request.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
July 30, 2018
Good News Really Is Good News
The US economic engine is humming, and corporate earnings continue to beat expectations. Data released on Friday showed real GDP grew at an annualized 4.1% in the second quarter. And with just over half the S&P 500’s constituents having reported for 2Q, 83% have exceeded earnings expectations. Yet investors are unimpressed.
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Gavekal Research
July 16, 2018
The Yield Curve As A Recession Signal
Every time since the 1960s that the US yield has inverted, a recession has followed within 18 months to two years. So it is no surprise that the recent flattening of the curve, which has seen the 10-2-year treasury yield spread fall to just 25bp, is attracting attention.
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Gavekal Research
July 3, 2018
The Trade War And The US Cycle
How will the US administration’s trade disputes affect the US economic cycle? In the worst case scenario, if Donald Trump follows through on all his threats the disruption to global supply chains could be great enough to push the world economy into recession.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
August 2, 2018
US Housing Gets Vertiginous
There is a lot to like about US housing. Vacancy rates are low, as are inventories of unsold homes. The labor market is tight and wages are steadily rising. At this point of the cycle there has usually been substantial over-building, but not this time.
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Gavekal Research
July 4, 2018
A Better Fed Model
The “Fed model” which values US equities relative to bonds is now more than 20 years old. In that time, it has become widely used and has attracted equally widespread criticism. In this paper Will and KX revise the original to iron out some of its flaws, and come up with an improved model which offers greatly superior risk-adjusted returns.
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Gavekal Research
March 28, 2018
Don’t Fret About Libor
A disproportionate increase in Libor relative to other benchmark short term rates over recent months has got many observers flustered. In this concise paper, Will and KX dig down to the cause of the increase, and explain what it does and doesn’t mean for portfolio investors.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
June 8, 2018
Video: When To Buy US Bonds
With 10-year US treasury yields having failed so far to climb significantly above the 3% mark, investors are asking whether it is time to buy US long bonds. In this short video interview, Will presents a simple framework for approaching the bond market.
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Gavekal Research
March 16, 2018
Video: Fixing The Model
Earlier this week Will issued a mea culpa report that explained why he was revising his Wicksellian asset allocation model and substantially changing his recommendations for the US market. In this video interview he explains the story behind this revision.
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Gavekal Research
February 2, 2018
Video: Playing The US Growth Picture
Will outlines his view that real growth in the US will remain stable this year and that inflation will pick up, and discusses what this means for asset prices and portfolio construction.