Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations. By request, some of Will’s charts on this subject are provided below, with the data updated daily.
For Will's article archive click here.
Below are some of Will’s favorite indicators. More information—on the logic, construction, application and backtesting—can be found in his reports (eg, When To Buy US Equities) and also on request.
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The Daily
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Gavekal Research
April 15, 2019
Inflation Is The Real Risk
Happy days seem to be here again as risk assets soar on a dovish Federal Reserve and better growth outlook. Yet, investors should take note. The Fed has three official mandates; namely, to keep inflation low and stable, keep unemployment down, and keep interest rates low and stable.
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Gavekal Research
April 10, 2019
A New Look At The Housing Market
When the US slides into recession, it generally does so because of a contraction in investment, either in the corporate sector or in the housing market. Today, returns on capital invested in housing exceed the cost of capital, signalling a positive outlook for US residential investment, construction, house prices, and the shares of homebuilders.
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Gavekal Research
March 21, 2019
Gather Round The Punch Bowl
US monetary policy tightening is over, at least for now. While the Federal Reserve is not adding any more hooch to the punch bowl, chairman Jay Powell has promised to stop cutting his serving sizes.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
March 7, 2019
An Investor's Rough Guide To Modern Monetary Theory
Modern Monetary Theory—the idea that governments can spend as much as they want, free from funding constraints—is attracting more and more attention.
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Gavekal Research
November 21, 2018
The Drag Of US Housing
Despite the overall US growth outlook remaining decent, markets have taken on an ugly tone, with US equities having given back their 2018 gains and credit spreads gapping wider. Adding to grim tidings, yesterday saw weak housing data released, which is a worry as the sector often leads the broader US economy.
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Gavekal Research
August 2, 2018
US Housing Gets Vertiginous
There is a lot to like about US housing. Vacancy rates are low, as are inventories of unsold homes. The labor market is tight and wages are steadily rising. At this point of the cycle there has usually been substantial over-building, but not this time.
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Gavekal Research
April 5, 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2019
In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.
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Gavekal Research
March 15, 2019
Video: The Fed's Potential Paradigm Shift
The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy.
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Gavekal Research
March 6, 2019
Video: Shifting Sands At The Fed
The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.