Will Denyer
US Economist
Will earned a degree in business and economics at the University of Oklahoma, supplemented by extracurricular education from the Mises Institute. He worked temporarily with our research team in 2005. We decided it was a good fit, so in 2007 he moved to Hong Kong to join our team. Will is now our lead analyst on the US economy. Will speaks English (including the occasional "y'all" in conversation), and is a struggling student of Chinese.
Will writes on a range of topics, but his current area of focus is the relationship between corporate profitability and interest rates (a la Knut Wicksell). He utilizes this framework to monitor the business cycle and provide portfolio construction recommendations.
For Will's article archive click here.
The Daily
-
Gavekal Research
June 17, 2021
Fed Talks Of Tapering
It should not be shocking but the Federal Reserve is getting set to return to a more normal monetary policy. To avert a 2013-style “taper tantrum”, Jay Powell wrapped cotton wool around his “tightening” message on Wednesday but the fact is that the Fed is talking about tapering its asset purchases.
4 -
Gavekal Research
June 14, 2021
Peak Inflation Expectations
Despite warning signs, it is now clear that investors were too relaxed about US pricing pressures at the start of this year. That much was clear from the consumer price index rising 5.0% year-on-year in May and at an annual rate of 5.9% over the last six months.
-
Gavekal Research
May 31, 2021
Accomplishing The Fed’s Mission
Another week, another discourse on US inflation, this time triggered by the personal consumption expenditures index rising 3.6% year-over-year in April, the fastest gain since 2008.
Ideas
-
Gavekal Research
February 9, 2021
US Inflation Has Many Fathers
As the economics adage goes, inflation happens when “too much money chases too few goods”. This is an oversimplification but it does contain a core truth: the monetary price of goods is dictated by supply and demand factors that impact both the goods in question, and money itself.
-
Gavekal Research
January 11, 2021
Bitcoin, Gold Or Fiat?
Governments and central banks are giving users of fiat money reason to consider alternative mediums of exchange and stores of value. And it seems entirely possible that Bitcoin can rally even harder than it already has. But are there the makings of a good money? Because if the answer is “no”, then bitcoin is running on fumes.
-
Gavekal Research
January 6, 2021
The Senate Upheaval
With some trepidation, Yanmei and Will offer their view on the economic consequences of Georgia, assuming that the Democrats have indeed secured a wafer-thin majority in the Senate.
Multimedia
-
Gavekal Research
June 18, 2021
Webinar: The Market Impact Of US Policymakers
In yesterday’s webinar, our team of US analysts considered what the Federal Reserve's tentative moves to normalize monetary policy means for growth and asset values. They also offered updates on US fiscal policy and anti-trust developments.
-
Gavekal Research
June 9, 2021
Video: Weighing The Fed’s Unconventional Options
The Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to be verbal guidance over a tapering of asset purchases, argues Will. That is increasingly a consensus market position, so in this interview he explores other policy options that the Fed could choose to pursue.
-
Gavekal Research
May 25, 2021
Video: Buy The Crypto Dip?
Crypto-currency prices have plunged in the last two weeks on a bad brew of news. Will wants to believe in crypto-currencies as an alternative form of money. However, he has struggled to see how such tokens make the jump to being “money”, with all that entails.