One upshot of the wars in the Persian Gulf and Ukraine is that the US oil and gas industry is booming. The drawback is that US consumers are paying twice Trump's target price for gasoline. With the midterms approaching, there is a risk the US administration might decide export controls are the only way to square the circle, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Cedric Gemehl looks at how Germany is warming to the idea of protectionist measures to insulate its industries from Chinese competition.

Following three days in which Iran and the United States traded military strikes in the Persian Gulf, technical talks between the two sides are scheduled to resume. However, material progress towards a lasting peace will be impossible so long as a power vacuum at the top exacerbates divisions within the Iranian regime. The resulting uncertainty means rebuilding petroleum reserves is a strategic imperative for oil importers, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Tom Miller analyzes Trump’s renewed attempt to squeeze US trade partners in the latest round of the tariff war.

Markets continue to behave as if the world has not fundamentally changed, even as inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and global capital flows enter a new regime. Anatole argues that investors are systematically mispricing four major shifts: the long-term outlook for inflation and bond yields, the global growth cycle, the rotation from AI-led growth to cyclical value and the end of US exceptionalism.