This week’s elections dealt crushing blows right-wing candidates in Brazil and Serbia. With next week’s US midterms looking ominous for the Republicans, voters appear to be turning against the populist right. Upcoming elections in Spain and France will show whether the tide has turned, says Tom Miller. If Israel and the US restart their bombing campaign in Iran, global oil prices will surge to new highs, writes Tom Holland. And there is little Congress can do to stop it, even if the Democrats take the Senate in the midterms, argues Will Denyer.

Donald Trump has high hopes that his putative deal with Vladimir Putin to resume Russia’s exports of diesel will bring down global—and US—prices. But, as Tom Holland explains, it will not be enough to restore “normality” to global diesel prices into 2027. In addition, Tom Miller examines the US government’s attempt to forge a trade bloc to counter Chinese industrial overcapacity, and Udith Sikand looks at the impact of Washington’s latest restrictions on the H-1B visa program.

After the average US pump price for diesel topped US$6.50 per gallon, politicians are increasingly calling for restrictions on US fuel exports in a bid to bring down prices for businesses and consumers ahead of November’s midterm elections. But while export controls might provide some temporary relief, any reduction in US prices will be short-lived, and will come at the cost of intense pain among US trading partners.