The most extreme version of Donald Trump’s trade war is on pause, perhaps for good, but what is left remains quite damaging, contends Arthur. The end result will be an enduring rupture in the US-China trade relationship that may not end up favoring the US. Away from the tariff chaos, Tom asks if the next shock that investors may have to digest will be US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In this latest review of geopolitical developments, Arthur argues that Donald Trump’s approach to the trade war reflects the “patrimonial” style he beings to government. Tom Holland focuses his sights on the Middle East and says that recent US action in the Red Sea is not likely to change shipping movements through the Suez Canal. He also considers the likely effectiveness of the US tariffs targeting countries that buy Venezuelan oil. Tom Miller tries to make sense of the moves being made by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul.

With the US planning to impose across-the-board levies, some countries will be able to negotiate their tariff rates lower, writes Arthur Kroeber, while for others a better strategy will be to stimulate their own domestic demand. In addition, Tom Holland looks at the leverage the US can apply to persuade Russia to accept the proposed Ukraine ceasefire, while Tom Miller assesses the fallout from CK Hutchison’s decision to sell its Panama Canal ports to BlackRock.