As Chinese artificial intelligence models begin to compete with US models in many real-world tasks, Beijing is determined to build an alternative to Washington’s emerging AI ecosystem. It is pledging to help countries in the Global South develop their own AI capabilities, leveraging its technological clout for commercial and geopolitical gain. China’s cheaper models will prove popular but only if Beijing can maintain its commitment to “openness,” writes Tom Miller. Meanwhile, Tom Holland argues that Iran is attempting to drive a wedge between the US and the Gulf Arab states as it seeks to become the regional hegemon

With the US-Iran war now five months old, and with no negotiated peace in sight, energy-importing economies must face up to the prospect that supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter approaches. With the European Union’s stores of natural gas already unusually depleted for the time of year, Tom Holland considers the possible consequences for Europe’s economies.

One upshot of the wars in the Persian Gulf and Ukraine is that the US oil and gas industry is booming. The drawback is that US consumers are paying twice Trump's target price for gasoline. With the midterms approaching, there is a risk the US administration might decide export controls are the only way to square the circle, writes Tom Holland. Meanwhile, Cedric Gemehl looks at how Germany is warming to the idea of protectionist measures to insulate its industries from Chinese competition.