A number of clients have asked about the extraordinary backwardation of the oil market, which has seen the price of long-dated futures remain relatively anchored even as prices at the extreme short end of the curve have surged. "Doesn’t this backwardation mean that market participants are confident the Iran war is effectively over?" Unfortunately, the answer is “No, not really.” Tom explains why.

It can have surprised no one that the weekend’s talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad broke down with no agreement. The two sides were miles apart going into the meeting, and in 20 hours of negotiations, neither appeared to budge to any significant degree. But Donald Trump’s response, declaring a total blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, was more unexpected. Tom examines if it is likely to be effective.

The relatively closed US economy is arguably the best positioned to weather disruption stemming from the Iran war. Yet even it finds itself at an awkward juncture. As high-income households generally thrive in an environment of technological disruption and high asset prices, those in the middle and lower end are struggling due to financial strain and inflation. Will and Kai Xian explore the balance of these forces, the impacts of the war and concerns around big outflows from the private credit sector and what that means for credit transmission in the economy.