Tom Holland

Tom Holland

Deputy Global Research Director

Tom helps to steer Gavekal’s global research, with a special focus on geoeconomics and energy markets. Before joining Gavekal in 2014 he worked as an analyst and commentator at media organizations including CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review, earning his spurs as the lead foreign exchange analyst for Dow Jones during the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. He originally started his working life as an exploration geologist, until a collapse in commodity prices forced him into journalism as the traditional refuge of the otherwise unemployable.

Tom Holland's Articles

Selected research

Geoeconomic Monitor: Changing With The Times
12 Jun 2026
Despite the failure so far of the US and Iran to agree an interim peace deal, the price of oil has dropped to a three-month low. Tom Holland writes that the longer-term softness reflects the oil market's ability success in absorbing the Hormuz supply shock without major global economic disruption. Tom Miller examines the state of tri-party trade talks ahead of the upcoming review of USMCA and considers the consequences of different probable outcomes.
More
Video: Oil After Hormuz
4 Jun 2026
Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. However, even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term.
More
The State Of World Oil Stocks
2 Jun 2026
In recent days, we’ve heard some apocalyptic warnings from oil industry executives about the depleted state of global petroleum stocks, and what will happen if Washington and Tehran fail to agree an interim peace deal that gets tanker traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. These guys know their industry. But are oil stocks really so run down that if the US and Iran cannot agree a preliminary truce in the next few days, we will see oil prices spike another 50% to US$150/bbl before the month is over?
More