In this latest review of geopolitical developments, Arthur argues that Donald Trump’s approach to the trade war reflects the “patrimonial” style he beings to government. Tom Holland focuses his sights on the Middle East and says that recent US action in the Red Sea is not likely to change shipping movements through the Suez Canal. He also considers the likely effectiveness of the US tariffs targeting countries that buy Venezuelan oil. Tom Miller tries to make sense of the moves being made by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul.

With the US planning to impose across-the-board levies, some countries will be able to negotiate their tariff rates lower, writes Arthur Kroeber, while for others a better strategy will be to stimulate their own domestic demand. In addition, Tom Holland looks at the leverage the US can apply to persuade Russia to accept the proposed Ukraine ceasefire, while Tom Miller assesses the fallout from CK Hutchison’s decision to sell its Panama Canal ports to BlackRock.

The US administration has been stepping up its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. But the campaign will have its work cut out to achieve its stated aim of driving Iran’s oil exports to zero. Meanwhile in Cairo the Arab street is responding to Donald Trump’s Gaza plans. And the green energy transition faces geopolitical and economic headwinds.