Tom Holland

Tom Holland

Deputy Global Research Director

Tom helps to steer Gavekal’s global research, with a special focus on geoeconomics and energy markets. Before joining Gavekal in 2014 he worked as an analyst and commentator at media organizations including CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review, earning his spurs as the lead foreign exchange analyst for Dow Jones during the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. He originally started his working life as an exploration geologist, until a collapse in commodity prices forced him into journalism as the traditional refuge of the otherwise unemployable.

Tom Holland's Articles

Selected research

Geoeconomic Monitor: Reading The Geopolitical Tea Leaves
Geoeconomic Monitor: Reading The Geopolitical Tea Leaves
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Holland, Tom Miller
5 Dec 2025
In this edition of the Geoeconomic Monitor, we look ahead at what 2026 might bring for the US-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine war. First, we look at the US-China truce, and how long it's likely to last. For the Russia-Ukraine war, we consider three scenarios, all varieties of grim. Finally, we explain why most Asian countries are unwilling to accept “poison pill” clauses in US trade deals that would force them to curb economic ties with China.
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Europe’s Energy Complacence
Europe’s Energy Complacence
Cedric Gemehl, Tom Holland
26 Nov 2025
As expectations grew of a possible peace deal over Ukraine, on Monday Europe’s benchmark TTF natural gas price fell to its lowest since May 2024. However, the decline in TTF prices predates the latest round of peace plans, and may reflect a dangerous degree of complacence over Western European energy supplies.
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Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Geoeconomic Monitor: A Bad Oil Bet In Venezuela
Tom Holland, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber
21 Nov 2025
The Trump administration keeps talking about peace, but there is some chance the US could try a decapitation strike to take out Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and install a more friendly government. Also in this edition, we look at the latest flare-up in China-Japan tensions, and find that China’s big international lending portfolio is less about Belt-and-Road infrastructure and more about financing cross-border expansion by Chinese firms.
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