Tom Holland

Tom Holland

Deputy Global Research Director

Tom helps to steer Gavekal’s global research, with a special focus on geoeconomics and energy markets. Before joining Gavekal in 2014 he worked as an analyst and commentator at media organizations including CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review, earning his spurs as the lead foreign exchange analyst for Dow Jones during the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. He originally started his working life as an exploration geologist, until a collapse in commodity prices forced him into journalism as the traditional refuge of the otherwise unemployable.

Tom Holland's Articles

Selected research

Geoeconomic Monitor: After The War
Geoeconomic Monitor: After The War
Tom Holland, Tom Miller
6 Mar 2026
As the war in the Middle East escalates, the immediate prospects for peace look poor. We attempt to peer through the fog of war to determine who will benefit when it does eventually end. If the United States achieves its aims, Tom Holland envisages a boom for Iran and the Gulf. If it does not, he predicts the whole region will decline. Tom Miller asks why China has provided no meaningful support to Iran.
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Into An Inflationary Bust?
Into An Inflationary Bust?
Tom Holland, Research Team
4 Mar 2026
Donald Trump’s promise Tuesday that “the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world,” if necessary by escorting tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, left investors unimpressed Wednesday in Asia. Across the region, equity markets continued to slide as investors contemplated the likely macro and market fallout should trade through the Straits remain suspended for an extended period. A simple historical comparison with 2022 suggests the effects on economies around the world could be pronounced.
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Dire Straits
Dire Straits
Tom Holland
3 Mar 2026
Donald Trump said late Monday that the US bombing campaign against Iran could last “four to five weeks. But we have capability to go far longer than that.” This means businesses and investors must contemplate the effect on energy markets if oil and liquefied natural gas traffic through the Straits of Hormuz remains suspended for a month or more. The impact will be mixed, but for some energy importers, the picture is ugly.
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