Tom Holland

Tom Holland

Deputy Global Research Director

Tom helps to steer Gavekal’s global research, with a special focus on geoeconomics and energy markets. Before joining Gavekal in 2014 he worked as an analyst and commentator at media organizations including CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review, earning his spurs as the lead foreign exchange analyst for Dow Jones during the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. He originally started his working life as an exploration geologist, until a collapse in commodity prices forced him into journalism as the traditional refuge of the otherwise unemployable.

Tom Holland's Articles

Selected research

Next Steps In The Gulf
30 Mar 2026
Asian stock markets took another leg down, and benchmark oil prices another leg up, Monday morning in Asia after Yemen’s Houthis joined the Iran conflict and speculation swirled about the next step in the war as US marines arrived in the region. At this point it is impossible with any confidence to assign probabilities to the courses of action under discussion. However, it is possible to assess the likely outcome of each of these different courses. None is encouraging.
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Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Webinar: Second-Order Effects
Tom Holland, Tan Kai Xian, Cedric Gemehl, Udith Sikand
26 Mar 2026
The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.
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Oil Crisis? What Oil Crisis?
25 Mar 2026
The sense of crisis is palpable. Since the end of February, when the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, leading to the suspension of most tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, the price of international benchmark Brent blend crude oil has jumped 37% to US$100/bbl Wednesday morning in Asia. Yet to some extent, the concern about fuel shortages is misplaced.
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