Tom Holland

Tom Holland

Deputy Global Research Director

Tom helps to steer Gavekal’s global research, with a special focus on geoeconomics and energy markets. Before joining Gavekal in 2014 he worked as an analyst and commentator at media organizations including CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review, earning his spurs as the lead foreign exchange analyst for Dow Jones during the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. He originally started his working life as an exploration geologist, until a collapse in commodity prices forced him into journalism as the traditional refuge of the otherwise unemployable.

Tom Holland's Articles

Selected research

Geoeconomic Monitor: Trade Deals And Energy Dominance
1 Aug 2025
Arthur Kroeber unpacks Donald Trump’s flurry of trade deals, which culminated in the executive orders signed late Thursday. Arthur and Tom Holland explain why Trump’s bid for fossil-fuel “energy dominance” is helping China win the more important contest for electricity dominance. And Tom finds that China’s new hydro mega-project in the Himalayas probably will not reduce India’s water supply by much, although it will do nothing to warm relations between the two Asian powers.
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When Bad Is Good
When Bad Is Good
Cedric Gemehl, Tom Holland
28 Jul 2025
On Sunday Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen clinched a trade deal that will see broad 15% tariffs imposed on US imports from European Union countries. The agreement can hardly be termed a great deal for the EU. But by removing from the picture the worst case scenario of 30% US tariffs, EU retaliation and an escalating bilateral trade war, and by greatly reducing uncertainty, Turnberry eliminates the major near-term headwind opposing the continued rally in European stock markets.
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Whatever Happened To Energy Dominance?
25 Jul 2025
Six months into Donald Trump’s second term, the administration’s plans for US energy dominance are not going as intended as US consumers face higher prices for gasoline, natural gas and electricity. This is not especially surprising. Moreover, the trajectory of energy policy under the second Trump administration will spell trouble in years to come for the competitive position of the US economy.
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