Nick Andrews
Europe Analyst
Nick has spent the last 12 years involved in trading, analyzing or writing about European markets and the global economy. At Morgan Stanley for seven years he divided his time between the interest rate swap and repo markets before returning to university to complete a masters in economics. During that time he also wrote for the Wall Street Journal covering fixed income markets. After graduating in 2011 from London's Birkbeck College, he worked for David Roche's investment consultancy, Independent Strategy, before joining Gavekal Research in 2013. Nick also has a degree in engineering from Edinburgh University.
For Nick's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
November 27, 2020
Yield Curves, The Euro And The Dollar
The balance of probability points towards a steeper US yield curve over the short to medium term as US short rates remain pinned at zero and long-dated US treasury yields push higher.
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Gavekal Research
November 19, 2020
Limits To EU Solidarity
This week, Hungary and Poland vetoed the European Union’s €750bn recovery fund in a fit of pique at a new mechanism that will stop money going to “bad boy” states deemed to impede the rule of law.
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Gavekal Research
November 13, 2020
After Consolidation, A Further Rerating
Given the violence of Monday’s rotation-driven rally on soaring hopes of an early coronavirus vaccine rollout, it is small surprise that equity markets are now giving back some of those gains. Expectations are still high that developed economies will be able to begin vaccination programs as early as the first quarter of next year.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
November 13, 2020
Biden And Brexit
Despite the UK enduring another Covid lockdown and facing a key Brexit deadline on November 15, its political class spent this week obsessing over a personality struggle inside the prime minister’s office.
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Gavekal Research
August 25, 2020
A Bottom In Sight For European Banks
No sector has been so beaten down as eurozone banks. But although bad loan ratios are rising, and further big writedowns are on the cards, this bad news is in the price. What is less adequately priced in is the change in policy from the European Union which means there will be no early return to austerity.
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Gavekal Research
February 13, 2020
Paying Your Way In The UK
A triumphant Boris Johnson is set on consolidating a new electoral coalition through big infrastructure projects that help “level up” forgotten regions, but he faces a weak economy and tough negotiations with the European Union over Britain's trading relationship.
Videos
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Gavekal Research
November 20, 2020
Webinar: Europe And The Second Wave
European markets were ebullient earlier this week on news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine may be approved for use early next year. In the meantime, regional lockdowns aimed at curbing the escalating pandemic threatens Europe's economic recovery. This all but guarantees loose monetary and fiscal policy for the foreseeable future.
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Gavekal Research
November 19, 2020
Video: EU Summit Tensions
European Union leaders are today sitting down for a high stakes summit. Poland and Hungary are threatening to scupper the EU’s budget and grandly-announced Recovery Fund if they are further penalized for becoming authoritarian and eroding the rule of law.
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Gavekal Research
October 9, 2020
Video: The Euro's Next Move
The euro’s appreciation against the US dollar has stalled out as resurgent Covid-19 infections threaten new lockdown measures, and a possible upending of the economic recovery. Nick argues that the euro’s decade-long run as a “weak currency” was down to policy settings that kept domestic demand weak.