Nick Andrews
Europe Analyst
Nick has spent the last 12 years involved in trading, analyzing or writing about European markets and the global economy. At Morgan Stanley for seven years he divided his time between the interest rate swap and repo markets before returning to university to complete a masters in economics. During that time he also wrote for the Wall Street Journal covering fixed income markets. After graduating in 2011 from London's Birkbeck College, he worked for David Roche's investment consultancy, Independent Strategy, before joining Gavekal Research in 2013. Nick also has a degree in engineering from Edinburgh University.
For Nick's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
October 12, 2021
Energy And The Euro’s Exchange Rate
It will come as news to no one that energy prices and exchange rates are intimately connected. Historically, over the last 20 years, the euro has tended to be positively correlated with the price of oil, while the broad US dollar exchange rate has tended to be inversely correlated.
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Gavekal Research
October 1, 2021
The Coming UK Recession
Thursday saw UK GDP growth for 2Q21 revised up to a perky 5.5% from a previous 4.8%. Yet all is not well in shortage-plagued Britain. While other economies facesupply chain disruption and energy shortages, the “just in time” UK economy looks to be facing a perfect inflationary storm that could deliver a recession in 2022.
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Gavekal Research
September 28, 2021
The German Interregnum
Germany is headed for a three-party coalition for the first time since Konrad Adenauer’s governments of the 1950s. Multiple options remain on the table but a center-left figure should eventually be sworn in as chancellor. The issue is that material differences over fiscal policy mean that coalition talks could drag out well into 2022.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
October 6, 2021
Fixing Italy
The results of this weekend's municipal elections in Italy look to have buttressed Mario Draghi’s national unity government, which is half way through an ambitious overhaul of core institutions that have failed the country for decades.
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Gavekal Research
July 9, 2021
Bye-Bye Buba
The European Central Bank on Thursday jettisoned its longstanding inflation target of “below, but close to 2%” in favor of a symmetrical target centered around the 2% mark.
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Gavekal Research
May 31, 2021
A Resounding “Nein” To European Inflation
Inflation rates are popping higher all over the world. Even in the eurozone, consumer inflation is set to exceed the European Central Bank’s target in the coming months. Yet like previous spikes in European inflation over the last two decades, this one too is set to prove short-lived.
Videos
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Gavekal Research
October 8, 2021
Video: Entente Discordiale
As if a tight labor market, rising inflation and widespread fuel shortages weren’t enough to contend with, the United Kingdom is also seeing a sharp deterioration in its relations with the European Union, and France especially. Nick examines what worsening cross-Channel relations could mean for the economies of the UK and EU.
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Gavekal Research
September 24, 2021
Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?
Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.
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Gavekal Research
September 10, 2021
Video: The Economics Of Germany's Election
Ahead of Germany’s election in a couple of weeks, the center-left Social Democratic Party has recently climbed up the polls to eclipse the previously dominant Christian Democratic Union. If the polling is right, the SPD is likely to form a coalition government with Germany’s smaller parties.