Nick Andrews
Europe Analyst
Nick has spent the last 12 years involved in trading, analyzing or writing about European markets and the global economy. At Morgan Stanley for seven years he divided his time between the interest rate swap and repo markets before returning to university to complete a masters in economics. During that time he also wrote for the Wall Street Journal covering fixed income markets. After graduating in 2011 from London's Birkbeck College, he worked for David Roche's investment consultancy, Independent Strategy, before joining Gavekal Research in 2013. Nick also has a degree in engineering from Edinburgh University.
For Nick's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
June 16, 2020
A Dismal Best Case
The crowds that Monday swarmed British shops, allowed to open for the first time in 12 weeks, at first sight bodes well for a V-shaped recovery. Yet despite plentiful accumulated savings and considerable pent-up demand, the UK’s consumption-driven economy faces formidable post-lockdown headwinds, with consequences for equities and sterling.
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Gavekal Research
June 4, 2020
Europe Flexes Its Fiscal Muscles
Another day, another big fiscal expansion from Germany. Yesterday, Berlin outlined a €130bn stimulus package, representing 3.8% of GDP. If there was any doubt, Europe has clearly ditched its decade-long infatuation with austerity and is back in the Keynesian camp.
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Gavekal Research
May 6, 2020
‘No Limits’ Now ‘No, Limits’
Markets have largely taken in their stride Tuesday’s decision by the German Constitutional Court that the European Central Bank exceeded its mandate by launching quantitative easing in 2015. The euro's move against the US dollar and the 10bp uptick in Italian 10-year yields were modest by the standards of recent volatility.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
February 13, 2020
Paying Your Way In The UK
A triumphant Boris Johnson is set on consolidating a new electoral coalition through big infrastructure projects that help “level up” forgotten regions, but he faces a weak economy and tough negotiations with the European Union over Britain's trading relationship.
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Gavekal Research
January 13, 2020
The European Recovery Lives, Just
On the face of it, Germany’s industrial slump is still worsening. The worry has been that a cratering of Europe’s industrial economy proves bad enough to reverse the “internal” recovery spurred by super-easy monetary policy.
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Gavekal Research
April 4, 2019
Auf Wiedersehen, German Competitiveness
Behind the factors that have caused Germany’s factory slowdown, deeper structural trends are eroding the competitiveness of German industry. The gains Germany made by deploying labor more effectively since the late 1990s have now run out, and that there are few signs Germany is well positioned to deploy capital more efficiently in the future.
Videos
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Gavekal Research
July 9, 2020
Video: What To Make Of Britain’s £30bn Stimulus
This week UK Chancellor of the Exchequer “Dishy” Rishi Sunak lived up to his media nickname, dishing out an additional £30bn in fiscal support and stimulus measures. In this short video interview, Nick assesses their likely impact.
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Gavekal Research
July 8, 2020
Webinar: A New European Dawn?
Yesterday Nick and Cedric presented on the topic of their latest Strategy Monthly: A New European Dawn. In this they argue that Europe is finally embracing fundamental reform that should change the investment environment. Anatole offered his take on why the European Union is heading in a “Hamiltonian” direction.
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Gavekal Research
May 28, 2020
Video: Will The Bank Of England Go Negative?
Having long resisted the lure of negative interest rates, policymakers at the Bank of England have recently admitted that they are considering a cut in the UK’s main bank rate to below zero.Nick examines the pros and cons of negative interest rates, and weighs the probability that the Bank of England will indeed enter negative rate territory for th