Louis-Vincent Gave
Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer
After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army where he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of years, Louis left the army and joined Paribas where he worked as a financial analyst—first in Paris, then in Hong Kong.
Louis left Paribas in 1999 to launch Gavekal Research with Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky in London. In 2002, Louis left the London office and returned to Hong Kong; the idea at the time was that Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth and that, consequently, Gavekal needed to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia. Since then, Louis has been living in Hong Kong from where he oversees Gavekal’s money management business. Nonetheless, Louis contributes episodically to the research. Louis has written five books, though none since the publication in 2012 of Too Different for Comfort (e-version available for free download here) a book which reviewed how the rise of robotics, the demographic transition in China, and shale-induced lower energy prices would transform the world. Louis frequently speaks at industry events and is often quoted in the financial media.
Louis has also been involved with different start-up ventures. He has helped seed a number of companies including Roboglobal LLC, Sponsorise.me, Think-Twice, Jobby-Pepper, On-Off Telecom, A-Ride Inc, Extreme Organics Inc, Ullr Maps Inc, and others. Louis currently sits on the board of Uniserve Inc, a Toronto Stock Exchange listed telecoms company, and is the non-executive chairman of Roboglobal LLC (the manager of the ROBO.US ETF, one of the largest robotics dedicated ETFs). He is also a non-executive director at Evergreen-Gavekal, a Bellevue, WA based private wealth manager.
In his spare time, Louis likes to spend time on the rugby pitch, whether in Hong Kong (where he plays for Valley RFC), or in France where he is the owner/president of the Biarritz Olympique.
Louis speaks English and French. He spent many hours studying Mandarin and Spanish, which he once spoke decently. He is married with two sons and two daughters.
For Louis's article archive please click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
June 19, 2018
The Empire Strikes Back?
Over the last 70 years the global population has tripled. Yet in defiance of every Malthusian theory out there, the average citizen of the world has never known such a high level of material comfort as today.
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Gavekal Research
June 4, 2018
Not Letting A Good Crisis Go To Waste
At the beginning of 2018, one of Gavekal’s big themes for the coming year was that the liquidity environment was deteriorating. Behind this we saw three causes: 1) the US Federal Reserve’s decision to shrink its balance sheet; 2) the growing toll of rising energy prices, and 3) the coming liquidity drain from runaway US government spending.
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Gavekal Research
May 30, 2018
Worse Than A Crime
On hearing that Napoleon Bonaparte had ordered the execution of a Bourbon-family duke, the arch realpolitik practitioner Charles Maurice de Talleyrand reputedly exclaimed: “This is worse than a crime. It’s a mistake”. Fast forward a few centuries and it’s not hard to imagine what Talleyrand would make of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
May 23, 2018
A Structural Change, Or A Return To The Mean?
Chinese government bond prices have markedly outperformed treasuries for more than a year.
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Gavekal Research
May 8, 2018
The Illusion Of Liquidity, And Its Consequences
A decade ago the US corporate bond market was about half as big as it is today, yet bond dealers held about six times more inventory than they do today. In our latest Loser Report which focuses on assets to avoid, Louis worries that the next big financial accident could happen in this aggressively priced arena.
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Gavekal Research
March 19, 2018
The Ogre Eating His Own Children
Our regular Loser Reports are based on the premise that good money management can be as much about “avoiding losers” as “picking winners”. This month, Louis looks at the (worrying) direction of US fiscal policy and wonders whether the next shoe to drop could be defense contractors and energy producers in the US, and even municipal bonds.
Multimedia
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Gavekal Research
June 11, 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call June 2018
During Friday’s monthly call, Louis Gave addressed the direction of the US dollar and the impact of expanding US fiscal deficits. Anatole Kaletsky focused on the rise of populist politics, which remains his major concern. Charles Gave considered the impact of resurgent nationalism on the investment environment.
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Gavekal Research
January 17, 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2018
In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair.
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Gavekal Research
October 18, 2017
Video: Which Messenger To Believe?
After Louis wrote up today’s Daily on the strange dichotomy between strong growth and moribund yields, we sat down to quiz him further on how this contradiction gets resolved. In this short video, he explains why the bond market is the thing that will probably have to give.