Dan Wang
Technology Analyst
Dan Wang writes about technology. He was born in Yunnan, grew up in Canada (where he was a Royal Canadian Army Cadet), went to high school in the US, and worked in Silicon Valley. His work on China and technology has been quoted by the Financial Times, Bloomberg, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Economist. He double-majored in philosophy and economics at the University of Rochester.
Dan goes on expeditions of mushroom picking, which he considers an excellent source of lessons for risk/reward tradeoffs. He writes occasional essays on his personal site: danwang.co
For Dan's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
May 18, 2020
A US Full-Court Press Against China
The US-China relationship has deteriorated rapidly, and the main reason seems to be that Donald Trump has decided that a “tough on China” approach should be central to his reelection campaign. Acrimony between the two countries is likely to get much worse between now and November, and US actions are starting to spread from technology to finance.
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Gavekal Research
January 16, 2020
A Tough Ask On Trade, Trouble Brewing On Tech
The story we’ve been telling for the past few months is that the conclusion of the US-China trade deal will reduce global macro risk in 2020, but tech-specific risk will still be an issue because of continued efforts by the US to constrain the rise of China’s technology sector and in particular Huawei.
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Gavekal Research
June 27, 2019
A Cold War Interglacial
It is now almost certain that presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will restart trade talks at the G20 summit in Osaka this weekend. Moreover, discussions in Washington suggest that there is a good chance these talks will result in a deal in the next few months. Our core scenario now is that macro risk from an escalating trade war is receding.
Ideas
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Gavekal Dragonomics
May 5, 2020
Military Fusion Sparks US Reaction
The US government has unveiled new rules that will make it more difficult for US companies to sell high technology to Chinese firms with any military connections. In this piece, Dan explains the risks of these new rules for both US companies and the many Chinese firms participating in their government’s “military-civil fusion” campaign.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
April 29, 2020
New Infrastructure, Old Problems
China is promising a boost in so-called “new infrastructure,” of which 5G network development is a major component. Dan explains how the scale of spending involved in building 5G infrastructure is too small to provide a meaningful boost to growth, and why any possible economic benefits from a faster mobile network will not be realized anytime soon.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
April 8, 2020
Reshuffling Global Supply Chains
Globally distributed production has already become less attractive since the 2008 crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic will intensify the trend for global manufacturing to reduce its dependence on China. Dan argues this will encourage supply chains to become more robust, more decentralized and, ironically, more truly global.