Dan Wang
Technology Analyst
Dan Wang writes on China's technology progress and how it's affected by US sanctions. In particular, he tracks China's semiconductor capabilities, US measures on CFIUS and export controls, Huawei's ongoing struggles, supply chain relocation, and broader Chinese industrial policy. His work is widely cited in press. Dan previously worked in Silicon Valley and studied philosophy at the University of Rochester.
Dan is also a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion and writes occasional essays on his personal site: danwang.co.
For Dan's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
May 18, 2020
A US Full-Court Press Against China
The US-China relationship has deteriorated rapidly, and the main reason seems to be that Donald Trump has decided that a “tough on China” approach should be central to his reelection campaign. Acrimony between the two countries is likely to get much worse between now and November, and US actions are starting to spread from technology to finance.
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Gavekal Research
January 16, 2020
A Tough Ask On Trade, Trouble Brewing On Tech
The story we’ve been telling for the past few months is that the conclusion of the US-China trade deal will reduce global macro risk in 2020, but tech-specific risk will still be an issue because of continued efforts by the US to constrain the rise of China’s technology sector and in particular Huawei.
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Gavekal Research
June 27, 2019
A Cold War Interglacial
It is now almost certain that presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will restart trade talks at the G20 summit in Osaka this weekend. Moreover, discussions in Washington suggest that there is a good chance these talks will result in a deal in the next few months. Our core scenario now is that macro risk from an escalating trade war is receding.
Ideas
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Gavekal Dragonomics
July 21, 2020
The Next Steps In US-China Decoupling
As the US election approaches, the Trump Administration is intensifying pressure on China on all fronts. In this report, Dan outlines the executive-branch agencies tasked with implementing sanctions and restrictions, what they have accomplished so far, and what tools are at their disposal should Trump decide to further escalate the situation.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
July 14, 2020
A Bumpier Road To Semiconductor Supremacy
The Chinese semiconductor industry has made substantial progress over the last year, making credible gains in both design and production—despite attempts by the US to stymie China’s advancement. In this report, Dan explains how the US has escalated its anti-China campaign and outlines the rough road ahead for the industry.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
July 3, 2020
Japan And Korea Split On China's Rise
Japan and South Korea have responded differently to China’s attempts to peel them away from the US. Japan continues to align closely with its ally, while South Korea is more ready to accept that China as the regional power. In this report, Yanmei and Dan explore the logic behind these decisions and what they mean for the regional power balance.