Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
March 27, 2019
The Case For A Cyclical Pick-up In Europe
As of last week, short positions in European equities were deemed to be the world’s most crowded trade and recent news has not lightened the market mood. The question is whether such information is in the price, for any marked improvement in cyclical conditions may spark a strong rally.
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Gavekal Research
March 15, 2019
The Trouble With Champions
When last Sunday, Angela Merkel’s heir-apparent published an opinion piece on the EU’s future, she left the door open to an EU industrial strategy and competition policy focused on creating European champions intended to compete in global markets. Such a policy may be attractive to politicians, but it is less appealing to investors.
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Gavekal Research
March 4, 2019
A Potential Lifeline For Europe's Banks
As the members of the European Central Bank’s governing council prepare to meet in Frankfurt this Thursday, they face the unsettling possibility that their policy settings may risk compounding, rather than alleviating, the eurozone’s economic weaknesses.Unfortunately for members of the council who may be inclined to dither, doing nothing is not a v
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
December 5, 2018
Macron’s Reform Program Lives On
At first sight, the French government’s decision to postpone its proposed fuel tax increases in the face of popular gilet jaune street protests looks a lot like the climb-downs of 1996, 2006 and 2016, all of which saw attempts at economic reform derailed by mass opposition. Cedric argues such a conclusion would be overly hasty.
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2018
The True Story Of Eurozone Equities
Since the financial crisis, European equities have proven serial duds compared to their transatlantic cousins. Cedric argues this divergence is simple reflection of the higher earnings-per-share achieved by US firms. Looking forward, however, he says it will be almost impossible for US firms to maintain this profits gap.
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Gavekal Research
October 15, 2018
The Politics (And Economics) Of A Multi-Polar Europe
This weekend’s election in Bavaria saw voters deal parties in Germany’s ruling coalition a bruising rebuff that further erodes Merkel’s authority and effectively kills off Macron’s plan for the EU to integrate at a faster pace.