Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
December 21, 2021
The European Inflation Split
Europe is again being split along eastern and western lines. To the West, the European Central Bank is holding fast to its belief in the transitory inflation narrative, with Christine Lagarde barely acknowledging upside risks. Yet to the East, the CEE-3 countries—Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland—are taking inflation as a serious threat.
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Gavekal Research
December 17, 2021
A Tale Of Two Central Banks
On Wednesday, the Bank of England ended its expansionary £895bn asset buying program, only to raise its key interest rate by 15bp a day later. In contrast, the European Central Bank stuck to its cautious script, saying it would buy bonds through 2022 and beyond if necessary.
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Gavekal Research
November 19, 2021
An Italian Renaissance?
Visiting Gavekal clients in Italy this week for the first time in 18 months, I have been struck by the mood of sunny optimism that pervades the country’s financial community. Arriving there myself with a relatively upbeat view on Italy’s economic prospects, I was expecting at least a partial reality check from clients.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
October 27, 2021
The EU’s Ambitious Roadmap To Net Zero
Europe has by far the most ambitious decarbonization program among major regions, targeting net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a -55% reduction from the 1990 level by the end of this decade.
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Gavekal Research
September 24, 2021
After The German Election
The results of this Sunday’s German federal election are unlikely to generate any shocks when markets reopen on Monday. Nonetheless, the precise colors of the coalition that eventually emerges will matter a great deal to investors.
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Gavekal Research
July 9, 2021
Bye-Bye Buba
The European Central Bank on Thursday jettisoned its longstanding inflation target of “below, but close to 2%” in favor of a symmetrical target centered around the 2% mark.