Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
June 18, 2019
The ECB After Draghi
At the ECB's annual shindig in Portugal this week, two questions matter. Given negative interest rates and capital key constraints over asset purchases, how does the ECB fight the next downturn? And who will replace Mario Draghi?
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Gavekal Research
May 31, 2019
A European Vortex
There is a big disconnect between markets and reported data in the eurozone. Bund yields are within a whisker of all time lows, inflation expectations have cratered and the Eurostoxx banks index fell -12.5% in May. Yet at the same, Europe’s macro data, while not great, points to stabilization after a 16-month industrial downturn.
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Gavekal Research
May 23, 2019
Don't Bet On A German Fiscal Boost
On Wednesday the OECD added its voice to the chorus calling on the German finance ministry to open its fiscal tap and juice up economic growth with additional public spending on investment. Yet although the outlook for external demand is darkening, investors should not hold their breath for a sizable fiscal boost.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
May 21, 2019
Everything You Wanted To Know About EU Politics
This week EU voters will elect representatives to a legislature that has often been dubbed a snooze fest. That has changed as populist-nationalist parties challenge the established organs of government.
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Gavekal Research
April 24, 2019
A Fire-Tested Macron
Tomorrow will see Emmanuel Macron deliver the big national address that got upended by the Notre Dame inferno on April 15. His speech will outline a mix of tax breaks, constitutional modernizations and symbolic grand gestures. The broad story, however, is that the effort to reform France remains broadly on track.
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Gavekal Research
December 5, 2018
Macron’s Reform Program Lives On
At first sight, the French government’s decision to postpone its proposed fuel tax increases in the face of popular gilet jaune street protests looks a lot like the climb-downs of 1996, 2006 and 2016, all of which saw attempts at economic reform derailed by mass opposition. Cedric argues such a conclusion would be overly hasty.