Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
-
Gavekal Research
May 14, 2021
Heading For The Med
“Sell in May and go away,” has long been a popular adage in Europe, a continent renowned for its predilection for long summer holidays by the Mediterranean. Last year, however, “sell in May” would have proved disastrous as an investment strategy. This year too investors should treat the old saw with circumspection.
0 -
Gavekal Research
May 3, 2021
Fighting Europe’s Headwinds
Last Thursday, Nick Andrews and I argued that Europe’s economic recovery is set to defy dire predictions. The fly in the ointment, we argued, was a weakening in Europe’s hitherto robust manufacturing sector. Such concerns deepened on Friday, as more evidence emerged of slowing industrial activity.
-
Gavekal Research
April 28, 2021
Europe Surprising On the Upside
Europe may not yet have the pandemic in the rear-view mirror but infection rates in most countries are falling, vaccinations are surprising on the upside and a full opening of most services this summer seems likely.
Ideas
-
Gavekal Research
April 21, 2021
Covid’s Legacy Of Corporate Debt
Covid-19 will leave a legacy of debt—corporate as well as sovereign. An increase in borrowing has raised fears: both of a wave of job-destroying corporate bankruptcies if government support is withdrawn, and of the creation of a legion of zombie companies if it is not.
-
Gavekal Research
January 20, 2021
Towards Stealth Debt Cancellation
The grand panjandrums of the European Central Bank meet Thursday amid growing calls for them to cancel the vast sums of eurozone member governments’ debt they have bought over the last year. There is zero chance they will formally agree to any debt cancellation, but the ECB may do so by stealth.
-
Gavekal Research
February 11, 2020
The Fiscal Fallout Of Germany’s Political Ructions
On Monday the uncertainty quotient in German politics jumped dramatically when Angela Merkel’s chosen successor quit as leader of the CDU. Her departure will trigger a new CDU leadership struggle which will further fragment an already fractured German political scene.