Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
July 8, 2020
Germany's Moment
Could this be Germany’s moment? The prospect of a disgruntled Italy walking away from the European Union spurred a German move towards new burden-sharing arrangements, but the conditions have been brewing within Germany for a few years as it became clear that its old export-led development model was cooked.
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Gavekal Research
June 23, 2020
The Club Med’s Cruel Summer
France, Italy and Spain suffered the deepest contractions in their economic activity in the first quarter and through April. Yet government programs have successfully supported both business cash flows and household incomes. Beyond the immediate bounce-back from lockdown, however, their economic trajectories are set to diverge.
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Gavekal Research
June 19, 2020
From A Tax To A Subsidy
There will be some hard bargaining ahead when the European Union’s 27 heads of government meet by video conference Friday in an attempt to thrash out details of the bloc’s proposed €750bn recovery fund. German chancellor Angela Merkel is urging a quick deal.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
February 11, 2020
The Fiscal Fallout Of Germany’s Political Ructions
On Monday the uncertainty quotient in German politics jumped dramatically when Angela Merkel’s chosen successor quit as leader of the CDU. Her departure will trigger a new CDU leadership struggle which will further fragment an already fractured German political scene.
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Gavekal Research
January 13, 2020
The European Recovery Lives, Just
On the face of it, Germany’s industrial slump is still worsening. The worry has been that a cratering of Europe’s industrial economy proves bad enough to reverse the “internal” recovery spurred by super-easy monetary policy.
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Gavekal Research
December 11, 2019
The French Resistance
While most of the rest of Europe, including Germany, has run into stiff headwinds from the slowdown in global demand, the French economy has continued to trundle along largely untroubled, with growth closely in line with potential. Cedric argues France’s economy will continue to grow in steady, if unspectacular, fashion over the medium term.