Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
July 26, 2019
The Most That ECB Easing Can Do
Mario Draghi fired no new bazooka on Thursday. But the European Central Bank president did signal the deployment of a whole arsenal of monetary weaponry in September. Such a package will cement the transition of the ECB under Draghi into a more active and more actively political institution, with a much more counter-cyclical policy stance.
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Gavekal Research
July 3, 2019
The Meaning Of The EU's New Lineup
After three days of intense maneuver and counter-maneuver, on Tuesday the European Union’s heads of government announced their choice of names to lead the EU’s central institutions for the coming years. The result is a remarkable clean sweep for the favored candidates of French president Emmanuel Macron.
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Gavekal Research
June 18, 2019
The ECB After Draghi
At the ECB's annual shindig in Portugal this week, two questions matter. Given negative interest rates and capital key constraints over asset purchases, how does the ECB fight the next downturn? And who will replace Mario Draghi?
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
July 11, 2019
France's Industrial Resilience
France is bucking the downturn in European—and global—industry. In May, French industrial production confounded expectations by rising an impressive 4% year-on-year. And crucially, French industry is creating jobs again after a brutal 17-year contraction. Cedric examines the reasons for France’s industrial health.
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Gavekal Research
July 3, 2019
An Asymmetric Opportunity In BTPs
The yield on 10-year BTPs has fallen below 2% for the first time since Italy’s populist government took office, yet investors continue to demand high premiums to hold Italian debt.
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Gavekal Research
May 21, 2019
Everything You Wanted To Know About EU Politics
This week EU voters will elect representatives to a legislature that has often been dubbed a snooze fest. That has changed as populist-nationalist parties challenge the established organs of government.