Cedric Gemehl
Europe Analyst
After graduating with a degree in social sciences from the University of Paris Dauphine, Cedric studied economics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Cedric returned to Paris Dauphine, where he obtained an MSc in international economics. After interning at OECD, Cedric joined Gavekal Research in 2014 as an analyst focusing on European economies and financial markets. He speaks French, English and German, and drinks both French wines and German beers.
For Cedric's article archive click here.
The Daily
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2018
Germany, And Europe, After Merkel
All political careers end in failure. Doubtless Angela Merkel is already feeling the sting. Even as the long-serving German chancellor stands up on Tuesday to address the European parliament in Strasbourg, political observers and investors are looking beyond Merkel’s term in office to the identity of her successor.
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Gavekal Research
October 26, 2018
Listen To What Italians Say
Among the factors rattling global markets this week has been the brewing dispute between Brussels and Italy’s populist government over its blowout budget proposal.The fear is that Italy gets into a vicious circle of tightening credit markets and faltering growth that could end with a resumption of the euro crisis and ultimately its exit from the si
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Gavekal Research
October 5, 2018
Bottoming Out In France
It has been a tough summer for the French economy, and a difficult rentrée—as the French call September’s return to classes at the start of the school year—for the government of president Emmanuel Macron.
Ideas
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Gavekal Research
December 5, 2018
Macron’s Reform Program Lives On
At first sight, the French government’s decision to postpone its proposed fuel tax increases in the face of popular gilet jaune street protests looks a lot like the climb-downs of 1996, 2006 and 2016, all of which saw attempts at economic reform derailed by mass opposition. Cedric argues such a conclusion would be overly hasty.
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Gavekal Research
November 12, 2018
The True Story Of Eurozone Equities
Since the financial crisis, European equities have proven serial duds compared to their transatlantic cousins. Cedric argues this divergence is simple reflection of the higher earnings-per-share achieved by US firms. Looking forward, however, he says it will be almost impossible for US firms to maintain this profits gap.
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Gavekal Research
October 15, 2018
The Politics (And Economics) Of A Multi-Polar Europe
This weekend’s election in Bavaria saw voters deal parties in Germany’s ruling coalition a bruising rebuff that further erodes Merkel’s authority and effectively kills off Macron’s plan for the EU to integrate at a faster pace.