Gavekal Dragonomics

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Rethinking Technology Funding

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Rethinking Technology Funding

Tilly Zhang
3 Jul 2025
China’s government is rethinking how it will fund the next round of technological development. Tilly argues that policymakers want to move away from the decentralized model that relied heavily on local authorities, and toward a more centralized system in which financial institutions play a bigger role. The intended result of that shift is not a big increase in overall funding, but a more disciplined and controlled process.
How Long Will The Auto Price War Last?

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How Long Will The Auto Price War Last?

Ernan Cui
1 Jul 2025
China’s policymakers want to put an end to the auto industry price war. But Ernan argues that their measures do not address a fundamental reason for the falling prices: too many auto companies and too much investment. Struggling automakers are slow to exit the market thanks to ample access to state and private-sector financing, meaning the auto price war will probably continue for at least another couple years.

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Next Steps For Stimulus

Wei He
27 Jun 2025
China’s policymakers have not introduced major new stimulus measures since the US-China trade ceasefire was reached in mid-May. But Wei argues that the possibility of some fiscal support running out in the second half of the year—as well as continued risks in the export and property sectors—means that officials are likely to deliver more stimulus in the coming months.

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Webinar: Pricing Another Middle Eastern War

Tom Holland, Udith Sikand, Cedric Gemehl
26 Jun 2025
Investors last week seemed to be betting that the United States would hold off on directly attacking Iran. Now, after the weekend’s US airstrikes and Trump's push for a ceasefire, are all parties really ready to cease hostilities? Or is this just the start of a regional war in the Middle East that could severely disrupt oil supplies and spark a surge in the crude price? Our team assesses the latest developments on the ground and consider the vulnerabilities of the major economic regions should the worst occur and the price of oil skyrocket.

Featured report

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Testing The Limits Of Industrial Policy

Thomas Gatley
20 Jun 2025
China’s lavishly subsidized industrial policy has delivered some substantial achievements in key technology sectors. But the costs of that strategy started to become more apparent in 2024, Thomas argues in his annual chartbook on the state of the corporate sector. A strategy that relentlessly expands supply while leaving domestic demand weak results in steady erosion of margins and profitability, which will make it harder for firms to continue to push the technological pace.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Consumer Lending Is In Trouble
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Xiaoxi Zhang
Webinar: Will Chinese Outperformance Continue?
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Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Russell Napier
Negotiating From Strength
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Thomas Gatley
Testing The Limits Of Industrial Policy
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Thomas Gatley
Assessing The Consumption Push
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Andrew Batson
Growth After The Trade Truce
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Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Webinar: China's Economic Strategy Amid Trade Conflict
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Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson
After London, What’s The Deal Space?
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Arthur Kroeber

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
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The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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