Gavekal Research
June 21, 2017
After three years of teasing, MSCI has agreed to include Chinese domestically-listed stocks, or A-shares, in its main equity indexes. Yet, hopes that MSCI inclusion will quickly spur huge capital inflows and a sustained domestic bull market, are almost certainly wide of the mark.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 20, 2017
China’s housing market is proving quite resilient this year, with sales growth perking up in May. In this piece, Rosealea argues the current sales recovery is broad-based: growth is strong in both central and coastal provinces. While restrictions on speculative purchases are spreading to some smaller cities, this should have only a moderate impact.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 15, 2017
China’s troubled industrial sector shed 2.3mn jobs in 2016—but these losses were swamped by millions more new jobs created in services. The real issue in the labor market today is not how many jobs are being destroyed, but the quality of the jobs being created. Most new jobs are in small businesses that offer lower wages and less security.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 15, 2017
The main source of uncertainty in the Chinese economy right now is the financial crackdown launched in March. In this piece, Andrew looks at the April data and finds that the regulatory campaign’s impact has so far been contained. This supports our call that the regulatory stress is a bigger problem for asset markets than for the real economy.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 26, 2017
Chinese financial officials are stirring up a regulatory storm with their new crackdown on various forms of speculation, arbitrage and risky behavior. Though much is still unclear, the campaign is likely to lead to tighter liquidity and slower credit growth. But the more immediate risk is its impact on the domestic equity and bond markets.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 24, 2017
China’s free-spending local governments have a new way to get money. Raising equity, not just debt, is how many localities are financing the current wave of infrastructure and industrial projects. In this piece, we explain how a new model of government-led funds began as a replacement for local borrowing, but ending up only adding to liabilities.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 24, 2017
China wants to build a new satellite city to take over Beijing’s “non-capital functions,” and their associated workers. In this piece, Tom Miller examines the Xiong’an New Area and the government’s grand plans to cap Beijing’s population and spread wealth to surrounding regions. He finds the economic benefits are unlikely to outweigh the costs.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 1, 2017
Chinese growth prospects look quite good in 2017, thanks to the recovery in construction, but how long can it last? In this piece, Rosealea unpacks the inventory dynamics behind the rebound. Given the strong start to 2017, it now looks like low inventories can support growth in construction not just in 2017, but also well into 2018.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 14, 2017
China’s latest data show the reflation that began in 2016 continued in early 2017: growth is accelerating and the housing market is very strong. Chen Long draws two conclusions from this. First, with construction supported the government will have no problem keeping growth stable in 2017. Second, a further tightening of policy is very likely.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 2, 2017
The key event in China’s political calendar is now just a few months away. The 19th Party Congress will reveal who will join top leader Xi Jinping in the ruling Politburo Standing Committee, and in the process provide clues to China’s political future. In this piece, Yanmei outlines different possible scenarios and explains their implications.
Gavekal Dragonomics
January 10, 2017
In 2017, the Communist Party will hold its 19th Congress, an event that will set the political framework for Xi Jinping’s second term as China’s leader, and beyond. The big question for the Congress is how much Xi will be able to change the rules of elite politics to strengthen his own power. This piece offers a guide to those rules of the game.
Gavekal Dragonomics
October 28, 2016
Economic policy in China is now entirely beholden to political demands for stability ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress. Whether things change after depends on how much “core” leader Xi Jinping further strengthens his power, and how much he cares about reform. In this piece, Arthur assesses the outlook after this week’s Sixth Plenum.
Gavekal Research
June 5, 2017
Over the past week and a half, the renminbi has appreciated 1.1% against the US dollar in the onshore market, and 1.5% offshore, where the PBOC has also engineered a spike in short-term interest rates. It seems China wants to send a signal about the renminbi, but markets are having trouble decoding what it is.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 30, 2017
Driven by a reflating economy and tightening financial conditions, Chinese bond yields have now risen back to their levels of late 2014. For foreign investors, the combination of higher yields, less currency risk, and some additional opening of the domestic market could make the second half of 2017 an attractive time to get into renminbi bonds.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 9, 2017
The renminbi has had a surprisingly good year, thanks in large part to the weakness of the US dollar. In this piece, Chen Long argues that dollar weakness will likely continue—and with it a benign environment for capital flows and China’s currency policy. Even a rise in the renminbi is a prospect that can no longer be dismissed out of hand.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 13, 2017
China’s outbound tourism is clearly a big deal, but statisticians are having problems figuring out just how big: a huge upward revision has just been followed by a huge downward one. In this piece, Ernan cross-checks the numbers, and finds that Chinese foreign travel is growing rapidly, despite confusing revisions and falling travel to Hong Kong.
Gavekal Dragonomics
April 6, 2017
It’s been a rough few years for Chinese consumer-goods firms: sales growth for items from soft drinks to instant noodles to sportswear has slowed dramatically since the 2000s, and price wars have slashed margins. In this piece, Thomas argues that the worst is now over: our models point to a more gradual and manageable slowdown in coming years.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 8, 2017
Premier Li Keqiang says pressure on employment is growing, so he has raised the government’s target for urban job creation in 2017. Ernan however disagrees with the premier: the pressure on China’s job market will actually ease somewhat this year, as the cyclical recovery in the economy means that companies have less need to cut jobs.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 22, 2017
The recent financial crackdown may give the impression that “China is finally getting serious about corporate deleveraging.” This impression is wrong: while leverage is already declining, this is likely to stop in 2017. Worries about zombie companies have also faded as rising profits and falling rates make it easier to service corporate debt.
Gavekal Research
March 24, 2017
Last year, MSCI raised three objections which prohibited the inclusion of China’s onshore A-share markets in its benchmark indexes. In a document published yesterday MSCI suggested two of those obstacles can now be overcome. Chances are high that the third objection can also be dealt with, allowing the inclusion of A-shares as early as this year.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 13, 2017
China’s listed companies won’t report their final Q4 earnings for another month, but preliminary numbers show it was their best quarter since 2010: profits for the median company jumped 28% in Q4 after a 25% rise in Q3. Strong earnings mean that fundamentals are supporting the slow but steady rally in A-shares that is now about nine months old.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 7, 2017
China’s iron ore price is now down by about a third from its peak in February. In this piece, Rosealea reassesses the market in light of this correction, and argues that the price is unlikely to stay substantially below US$60 per ton for long. That’s because domestic miners responding to low prices by cutting output, helping rebalance the market.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 25, 2017
Coal was the most volatile commodity price in China last year, but it has been remarkably stable in 2017. In this piece, Rosealea explains how the government has revived a contract system of regulating coal prices, in the place of campaigns to cut or raise coal output. Coal prices are thus likely to stay at their relatively high levels for longer.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 17, 2017
China’s “supply-side reform” measures have helped drive a recovery in prices of industrial commodities. In agricultural commodities, the name is the same, but the results are very different: the price of corn fell 44% from its peak after the government removed price supports. Now that prices have adjusted, quantities will follow: imports will fall.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 10, 2017
Ahead of next week’s Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, Tom Miller provides an update on the progress of Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. More than three years after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is starting to deliver useful infrastructure, and is clearly boosting construction volumes and stimulating new investment.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 23, 2017
Since South Korea decided to host a US missile-defense system, China has restricted tourism and closed local operations of Korean firms. The dispute will mean some economic pain for Korea, but no lasting damage. But China is ever more willing to use such “sanctions with Chinese characteristics” to disrupt trade with countries that displease it.
Gavekal Dragonomics
January 25, 2017
Xi Jinping’s passionate defense of the globalized economy at Davos last week was, in reality, a sign that Beijing knows the tide is turning against it. The surge of Chinese outward direct investment in recent years has already sparked a backlash, and the political momentum for more restrictions on Chinese investment now looks unstoppable.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 3, 2017
Optimism about China’s growth is now higher than it has been for years, after the notable recovery in the last couple of quarters. But in this piece, Andrew argues China still can’t escape a further growth slowdown, because its continued reliance on state-driven investment is sapping productivity growth and undermining the private sector.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 21, 2017
After forty years of market reforms, state-owned enterprises retain an exceptionally large role in China’s economy. Though their financial performance is deteriorating and their debts are growing, SOEs’ share of the economy is rising rather than falling. In this chartbook, Andrew pulls together the data to show the true state of China’s SOEs.
Gavekal Dragonomics
December 6, 2016
If China’s sputtering state enterprise reforms are going to be successful anywhere, it should be in Shandong, with its solid economy and reform-minded governor. But a closer look at Yankuang Group, the province’s poster child for SOE reform, shows that local SOEs are just becoming even larger, more complicated and less transparent conglomerates.
Gavekal Dragonomics
June 8, 2017
China is attempting to become Asia’s new leader. The high costs of confronting it mean that the US’s regional influence is likely to dwindle. But widespread distrust of China means that many countries will continue to prefer investment from the EU, US and Japan. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates China’s role in the Asia-Pacific.
Gavekal Dragonomics
March 15, 2017
China’s growing economy has brought its people longer lives, but also a new set of health problems. Though the government is trying to improve coverage, change is happening slowly. So there is a growing opportunity for private companies to fill the gap. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates the nation’s health problems, and solutions.
Gavekal Dragonomics
December 12, 2016
2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.
Gavekal Research
May 31, 2017
Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.
Gavekal Research
April 14, 2017
In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is increasingly skewed against them, and rising danger of confrontation over North Korea.
Gavekal Research
March 28, 2017
In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.